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HOUSE BILL TO GIVE TAX BREAK TO MUTUAL FUND INVESTORS
Anyone know what this is all about?
>>The manipulaters must be slipping.<<<
I think the PPT objective now is to just have an orderly crash without panic.
Joe
Cy- Thanks for posting that link. Very interesting. eom
RMBS- What a boring conference/stockholders meeting call! eom
FEDERAL PENSION GUARANTEE FUND LOSES $11.4B IN 2002
FEDERAL PENSION FUND LOST $7.6B ON BANKRUPT STEEL FIRMS
RRI- With just 3 weeks until due date I would think the refi is well along. Think I saw EBITof close to $1 bil. Way more than enough to service the interest.
Joe
RRI- Conference call sounds good to me. Think I will hold my present position and ride this downturn.
Joe
For a trader/investor I think IBD is the best daily you can buy. I like it much better than WSJ. However, I just cancelled my subscription of over 6 years beacuse I was just getting too much info being on the net all day long. For a new trader I think it is a must.
Joe
...and we see what 16% money supply growth did for the market in October and November. Amazing!
Joe
More credit bubble Charts! This stuff is going to come back and haunt us folks.
From OptionInvestor.com early today.
>>COMPX 1360 is a formidable resistance zone on my charts, though 1377-80 is very strong as well. The benefit of watching the price all day is that certain numbers stick in your mind. 1377-80 brings back memories from months ago. Can the COMPX break through? There's light selling in bonds, FVX +3.9 bps, mild selling in equities TRINQ 1.36 and TICK.NQ -183. Yesterday buried all of the intraday stochastics into overbought. Bulls will need a pullback and a higher low before those resistance levels get busted, in my opinion.<<
QQQ $25.06 -0.31% ... per last night's Index Trader Wrap. Will note here, that based on WEEKLY retracement as discussed in last night's wrap, QQQ has seen a 5-minute bar close BELOW the WEEKLY pivot of $25.10. Swing Trader bear might look to take partial position here, using the 38.2% retracement of $25.38 as near-term resistance, and placing stop just above yesterday's high. More patient bear will monitor QQQ for rally, look for Oscillators allignment and look for higher short entry back near the $25.38 level, with thought that this is stronger of indexes right now. It's kind of my thinking that there were market makers, if not other shorts from recent sessions below the $25.00 level that are buyers this morning just above $25.00. This thought is derived from past retracement discussed that we set up months ago regarding how a market maker might be trading those levels, with $25.00 at the 50% retracement level and 38.2% retracement above at $26.18.
All that matters to YOU the trader, is to trade the levels YOU deem more appropriate for your trading style.
Phill, I think you are wrong about Puplava. I don't see the lies you are speaking of. Money supply growing 16% in a quarter whether it's Christmas or not is high. I think that the actual numbers show that money supply started dropping just prior to Christmas. The 16% growth was mostly for October-Nov from what i have seen. 16% is high especially when you have just .7% gdp growth. Here is an excerpt from Doug Noland's piece.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Broad money supply surged $255 billion over a 10-week period commencing in early October, a 16% annualized rate. Rampant reliquefication was exceedingly successful in inflating Treasury and agency prices, while liquidity meandered back to the corporate bond market. In a noteworthy change from the past, these measures had quite modest affects on equities while they undercut the dollar. Gold, energy, and commodity prices, in general, surged and finished 2002 with the strongest price gains in years.
With the general financial market backdrop in mind, let’s now analyze some of 2002’s monetary developments. Broad money supply (M3) expanded by $465.4 billion, or about 6% during the past year. Over two years, M3 ballooned an historic $1.46 Trillion, or almost 21%. It is instructive to dig a bit deeper and make comparisons. During 2001, broad money supply surged $990 billion, or about 14%. Institutional Money funds were actually that year’s fastest growing component, surging $406 billion, or 52%. The financing of GSE balance sheets played no small part in 2001’s expansion of Money Market Fund assets (Freddie Mac, for example, increased short-term borrowings by 36% to $250 billion for the year; the FHLB 30% to $122 billion; and Fannie Mae 23% to $343 billion). But the GSE’s may have in combination actually reduced short-term borrowings during 2002. Therefore, we should not be surprised to see that the growth rate for Institutional Money Fund assets dropped to 5%, while Retail Money Fund assets declined 4% during the past year. For 2002, the expansion of Savings Deposits accounted for the vast majority of money supply growth, jumping $462 billion, or 20%. The fastest growing money supply component, however, was Repurchase Agreements (“issued by depository institutions”) that surged 25% to $476 billion.
The untold story of 2002 is the surge in Primary Dealer Repurchase Agreements (repos). Twelve-month gains of almost $400 billion, or 20%, put outstanding repos at about $2.4 Trillion. This enigmatic financing vehicle played a critical role in financing the past year’s unprecedented mortgage debt growth. First, repos surely financed GSE balance sheet growth; an expansion this time financed primarily by long-term (“agency”) bond issuance. Second, the repo market has come to play a major role in financing speculative holdings of mortgage-backed securities. We are left to ponder the degree of leveraged speculation the repo market has come to finance, though it does appears to have developed into THE key liquidity mechanism. Financing Treasuries, agencies, and mortgage-backs in the Repo market (borrowing short, lending long) provides virtually free speculative profits in a collapsing rate environment like 2002. Thus, last year’s extraordinary growth was supported by an unusually hospitable financing environment. Things won’t always be so good. <<<<<<<<<<<<<
Cy- I think you could do well there. I just had to reduce my exposure and eliminate some risk. I still have about 85% of my position so I'm not bailing. My cost basis is nearer 1.60 so I locked in a decent gain. I just think that after today's report the gains will come with more of a fight. A good report today and i would have been adding.
Joe
When I see a stock like RRI trade flat like this on a bad earnings report my first thought is someone is proping it up. I think the Specialist may be just making a market for it a bit and then we could see it drift lower if some real support doesn't appear. Hopefully the conference call will lend some support. I just sold off about 15% of my position at 3.90.
Joe
RRI- I see that RRI is still holding onto 2003 projections of .90 to 1.10 a share. This report changes the story some for me. Since I have a large profitable position I'm going to take profits on about half. I am going to wait for the conference call before doing anything. I hope to know better then how committed I will be to holding. I guess I would now rate this stock a hold.
Joe
RRI-Ouch! Good thing I sold all of mine yesterday.
Just kidding...just kidding. What a bad quarter. I'm looking forward to the conference call. Sorry if I may influenced anyone to buy. I really thought I did my homework on this one.
Ouch, ouch, OUCH!!!
>>Ahh, Barnum would be proud<<<
I think the real fools are those that are ignoring all the signs that we are indeed heading for an eventual depression. Like it or not, but it does resemble the "perfect storm" in the financial world.I'm not saying it will happen this year or next but we will be there within the next 7 years.
Here's something to think about. Not that it is that much related to the above but just some numbers I came across;
In 1935 the US set up the Social security system. The retirement age was 65. Life expectancy was about 63. There were 40 workers contributing to your pension if you retired that year. Channces are that you would not be around long to collect it.
By 1950 there were 17 workers contributing for every retiree. In the year 2000 just less than 4 workers are contibuting to that same person. By the year 2040 the ratio will be close to 2 to 1. People that live to 65 now have about 17 more years to live and collect. The system is massively underfunded. Money going to these retirees is money that will not be able to be invested.
Summing it up. When we went from defined pension programs to to defined contribution retirement accounts, the "dumb masses" were put in charge of their own retirement savings. Many are not saving enough. Social security will not be enough. Many will be looking for government handouts when the time comes. This issue alone will drive this country into depression at some point.
Joe
Interesting comment about China.
Rio Tinto: China growth pace is key for metals, mining (UK:RIO) By Emily Church
Rio Tinto (UK:RIO) , the mining group, on Thursday posted an 8 percent drop in adjusted earnings of $1.53 billion for 2002, excluding exceptional charges of $879 million. including the charge, earnings per share dropped 40 cents for the year to 47.3 cents. Revenue rose 4 percent to $10.8 billion. It's final dividend for 2002 is one cent higher at 60 US cents per share. Looking ahead, the company said: 'With little sign of any improvement in Europe or Japan, the performance of the US and Chinese economies in 2003 will be critical... China already consumes more steel and more copper than does the US. In 2002 China's demand for most commodities rose by ten percent or more and shows no sign of slowing."
FR- Good post! I agree with every word you say about Greenspan. 50 years from now folks will read the history books and ponder what Greenspan must have been thinking to screw things up so badly.
Joe
NVLS- Cy, I have been in and out of NVLS several times today. Currently I have a short position but I probably will cover before close. AMZN I'm holding but that is more of a core short for me.
Joe
INTC because it's the best buy for the dollar to move the indexes.
MU because the crooks want to sell the convertibles.
Joe
I don't know if RRI has good earnings if it will help MIR. MIR has some other issues to deal with. I did get back into MIR because it's cheap down here but I don't have the "warm- fuzzy" feeling I have for RRI.
JOe
NVLS- Short 30.99 Daytrade.
ADD MCD to that list too. I can't see them doing much going forward.
Joe
NVLS- Covered my short for 25 cents. We could run into the FOMC announcement. If we do it could offer some nice short ops for a risky play.
Bamm! Something just happened.
Joe
RRI- I don't know about wait and see. They sure were not waiting after this last run-up. Some profit taking was natural and look at the general market. If earnings are just OK and think we could see more interest come in quickly. This is an easy $5 plus stock and should be closer to $10 after refinance.
Joe
KO- Hitting some new 6 year old lows. Looking at the DOW we now have several issues that have problems and don't look like much bounce is ahead for them. HD looks real bad. GE and CAT look weak also. MSFT doesn't offer much hope.
Joe
VM- RRI- I also like the chart showing the low volume on the sell-off.
RRI- I think RRI could remain relatively flat today. I think earnings could come in with a slight miss and the market will still be relieved that they were not worse. RRI has been fairly conservative throughout the last year. I'm looking for good earnings. I think the retail side of their biz will do well. But, who knows.
They could paint a pretty picture to put a positive spin on for the bankers to the refinance. I'm still very long and waiting. If you notice, RRI has not been selling off assets like some of the others. If they are indeed also doing more trading they may be picking up business that others are leaving behind.
Joe
DYN-having a nice day. Up 10% eom
No position.
NVLS- Short 30.84
NVLS- Looking to short before noon. Joe
If the resistance gets too obvious watch the MM run it to take out the stops. Whoops, looks like that's what he is doing now.
Joe
Anyone think we may get a rate cut?
>>not just going to grow at a slower pace, but will contract.<<
Good point. That's what I'm seeing as well. I don't think many are seeing that we could in the next few years see spending on the levels of the late 80's and early 90's.
Joe
FMC- Call 911
AMZN- I can't believe how this one holds up. I'll wait for this honey pot to fall from the tree as long as it takes.GGG
Joe
Actually I think there was less "crookedness" in the market in past decades as the market was made up of more professionals, or in other words, a market of capitalist. They were too sharp to be tricked so easily. Once J6P entered the market with the ERISA laws, the professionals gradually changed their ways to take the little guys money. The market then became more of a collective with big money pulling the strings. Not that wasn't done before, they just couldn't get away with it as easily.
Joe
ROTFLMAO! Could happen! Let me get in the ring with that gal on CNBC! Can't think of her name. gggg
Joe
Smart Money, I disagree. I think the market has changed much from the early 90's. It's much more orchestrated now. Like I said, it's more of a reality show. I'm surprised that as much as you are in the market that you do not see that.
Joe