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- Vanguard loaded 155k shares until 6/30, filed 8/24
assuming they & others continued and/or will continue loading in the reversal uptrend
- Participation in IBC2017 and DoD Contract in September,
expecting a run-up into these catalysts as usual, especially from the current higher lows - stair stepping up.
- SI kept stable until 8/15, relative reduction
Positive aspects also OK, yes.
Just wondering how that little cash helps 'em to get over next month, but this could be also seen bullish - expecting inflow somehow.
If they RS it would be also a positive due to NASDAQ uplisting and some (naked) shorts would need to be covered of course.
Not an easy situation to assess.
400% fixed interest on the little $100k investment?
So $400k profits from 1st SPE distributions in a few years after the SPE payout payed off all debts?
That is surely above the bankruptcy risk interest rate of around 17% .. quite a stretch, but reflects current trading price.
Bad timing to get a bank loan it seems, hope the little $100k will last a little while. Not really. Disappointing 'solution'.
The Struggle Continues, AMRS Shall State end of Dilution
I can add the following findings regarding insecurity of investors and the short thesis:
- $4.26 is the next T-1 T-2 AD Warrants threshold.
- TAB R&D Noted of $3.7M to be payed until EOY '17. If done in cash great, if using equity at lowered conversion price down it goes.
- $20.7M 10% pa interest Guanfu Credit left, which could be payed in equity at 90% VWAP of 90d closing price as well. Same thing here, if using equity, down it goes.
Above are two potential triggers for lowering the T-1 T-2 Cash-Warrant conversion prices, which is truly feared. I spoke with one long term short holder at $3.50 and she is using this 'instrument'.
The Vivo deal already brought down the conversion price and triggered AD Warrants with DSM's blessing - might have been even their requirement to average down further.
Now the price tag for them is at $5.30 for conversions.
What poor retail surely needs to know from the company is, whether they will pay down the mentioned debt in cash and end the dilution spiral reducing common's stake in the company.
If that can be assure by the company, the awaited recovery at least around $5.30 matching purchase average should work out.
It is a struggle between trust, opportunity and deception.
Especially deception plays a big role in here, some even thought T-1 would have been offered above $17/sh not doing the dilutive math in detail, bringing it down to $6.30. Now - again - we are at $5.30. Tough decisions and chart seems to capture just that.
Bullish Reversal In Progress, Finally
01 posted on ST a long term fibo retracement of 3.61 -> 1.28 covering the whole uptrend recovery since 2016-12-29.
wth is going on with shorts here?
Spider Web, so you might know as a previous short?
Daily short volume increasing, buying decreased again.
Dude on ST just showed the half day candles and it looks similar to the pre-plunge pattern, down until mid/end lunch, then up on little volume.
Just some 'short aspect' brainstorming, what negative catalysts could be in the pot regarding to keep this from recovering?
- Market not appreciating the much higher purchase price yet.
- The lawsuit?
- Assuming that the proceeds won't make it up until 2019 EOY and hence further dilution will happen?
- Other negative regulatory updates?
Well, for me I stick with the recovery trade back up to $5.64/sh avg purchase price. Just a question of when, but may re-test $2.20 until then. Let's see end of week.
Who puts their money where their mouth is? (revised)
Assuming 21M OS, they bought:
- already: 24.22M shares, 54% of company @ $5.91/sh
- with Cash Warrants max: 42.62M shares, 67% of company @ $5.64/sh
DSM already converted all of the preferred into common shares, they had a look into the books before the deal and don't need the preferred privilege for fears of a bankruptcy. There will be none. Vivo also bought 2.83M common shares and will convert the 3.04M on 10/7.
All in all, this is like a 54 - 67% buyout of the company at $5.60/sh - $5.90/sh or $143M - $241M and the stock shall move accordingly.
Note that the full purchase proceeds incl. Cash Warrants does cover the whole debt payments of the company of $227M (10-Q Note 5 Details), see below.
Also attached the adjusted fundamentals & modeled 3Q17 and 4Q18,
nice job zeroone01.
PS: Lowered purchase price due to adjusted Cash Warrant conversion price down to $5.30/sh. Also the T-2 Cash Warrants were missed.
+++
Who puts their money where their mouth is?
Assuming 20M OS, they bought:
- already: 23.77M shares, 54% of company @ $5.97/sh
- may buy up-to: 34.23M shares, 64% of company @ $6.41/sh
That is high above current market price, who needs an analyst with this huge purchase of confidence?
Note that all gets converted on 10/7 into common shares above marked price and none will sell of course.
DSM already converted all of them into common shares, they had a look into the books before the deal and don't need the preferred or warrants privilege for fears of a bankruptcy. There will be none. Vivo also bought 2.83M common shares and will convert the rest on 10/7.
All in all, this is like a 54 - 64% buyout of the company at $6 - $6.40 and the stock shall move accordingly.
As posted earlier on SA and ST, here are the purchase details:
Hey, Clay, not even willing to see resistance and RSI 'eh?
Just mumbling about your 30 minute chart of TWO DAYS 2.10 support and whether that poor weak stock will hold its knee jerk reaction. I love your obvious style, your guys in the red paint?
Maybe you should try TA even for once?
Yes, we do use the daily chart Sir.
RSI still super low, bounced off lower BB,
was rejected on the 8ema (maybe tell your trolls the meaning of the 8ema for once?).
On the 5min, 15min and yes, 30min, 8ema finally held below the candles for 1.5 days. What does that mean Sir? Yes, bullish reversal.
Also, it is not 2.10, but 2 - 2.20 range which should hold,
i.e. maintaining at least partially the bullish engulfing candle.
I personally will watch out for 2.20 support, just in case.
Resistance is the 8ema 2.48 for obvious reasons, bears don't like to see stock in an uptrend. Then the actual resistance of 2.50 produced by last 8 trading days.
After 2.50 is broken, the 20MA and MBB 3.22 shall be reached quickly and a dramatic rise shall occur.
I hear 'em already, 'w/o news it P&D', while a plunge w/o news is just fine :)
News are already out, great 2Q17 and the premium offering, sold 54% of company @ 5.97. Maybe even more at 6.41. But who cares about the important evaluation, who puts money where their mouth is.
No thanks Mr Captain Non-Obvious, but surely we are used to volatility and will take advantage of the shorts Monday on the attempt to bring this down. Some longs might even 'short' themselves, but only to cover and buy more just above your telegraphed covering price target, creating a nice inflection point around 10:30am? Maybe earlier?. This stock always trades under lots of distress, used to it - not losing.
Copying a nice chart as posted recently .. have fun.
RSI lower-double-bottom turnaround play
(re-post of this colorful chart from ST)
Suggestion is, we are at a similar point as of 3/8,
which produced a lower bottom as of 2/2,
having a higher RSI.
Now on 8/16, we have a lower bottom and slightly higher RSI
compared to 6/21. Period is a bit stretched due to ER.
Also see the Ichimoko cloud removed resistance.
The above may conclude that we are becoming ready to a reversal again soon, if not even tomorrow.
Found missing T-1 Equity & Liabilities Reduction.
(got this from a ST thread, nice DD)
Everybody might have expected a much better looking balance sheet 2Q17 due to the T-1 offering already and were disappointed.
Up until 7/7:
- DSM got 7.936M shares @ $7.425/sh $58.95M.
- Doerr/Naxos payed $65.2M = $25M + $40.2M debt for a not yet disclosed amount of shares and Cash Warrant conversion.
Maximum theoretical funding via T-1 and T-2 is:
T-1 Total: 27.73M @ $7.43/sh for $205.90M
T-2 Total: 12.38M @ $5.87/sh for $ 72.72M
Total: 40.11M @ $6.95/sh for $278.62M
The 10-Q states that only $31.20M cash and $40.20M debt reduction, total $71.4M, has been accounted in 2Q17 with OS 25.27M. Subsequently they mention $50M has been accounted for T-2 within 3Q17 with OS 37.61M.
The conversions hasn't been completed yet, not all Cash Warrants have been converted - more cash to come.
10-Q balance sheet didn't show an equity raise of anything close to $71.4M, but just some $12M.
The big question arises: Where is the money?
As mentioned above most of the shares to be offered were not yet converted.
The T-1 deal in May was structured in a very complicated manner. Shares couldn't be just issued, since they exceed the 20% threshold and a post deal SH meeting on 7/7 had to approve it. To secure the investor's ROI, a promise in dividend payments had to be given in case they had to keep the notes (preferred shares). Dividend payment would then be performed in common shares if conversion failed, hence more shares given if stock price goes lower.
This construct had to be modeled into the balance sheet as a level-3 derivative liability, see FAS 157 - Derivative valuation insights.
10-Q shows an increment of $51.128M in level-3 derivative liabilities, adding $58.606M to Total Liabilities due to some potential event of anti-dilutive conversion modeled.
The 2Q17 PR especially hints to the resolution
10-Q p9 Liquidity, let's quote properly:
yup, sounds familiar. the re-capitalization sadly hasn't been recognized yet in this 10-Q. Hence the OS is still lower than estimated 55M - 64M. This will be fully reflected within 3Q17.
Also this pending recognition still kept the going concern phrase as known in the filing. However:
- it has been filed that it happened (re-capitalization)
- collab + product revenue on track now.
Also the 10-Q has been filed on time and matches the PR.
Removes the hysterical mood.
Fair Floor Value & 2Q17 Highlights..
See SA blog post from 8/11.
Almost bullish? re-reading your post again :)
Well, either believe DSM + Vivo who surely had a look into the details before making their premium investment or you may simply wait until 3Q17 to pay more for your stake.
I am surely hopeful at this point, for $130M+ good reasons.
- SI wise, you are correct.
- Otherwise: Just think about the investment inflow $130M (could be max higher) at high premium to current price (T-2).
If this is not confidence enough Sir, I don't know what is.
We know past performance sucked due to low margin bio-fuel
and company is still in early stage commercialization.
I have to question about your strong enthusiasm as a short here, almost a ridiculous obsession. Until the final declaration of latest offering was disclosed I also held back and knew the volatility will hit. The big unknown.
Now all is set up for growth w/o liquidity issues, your ongoing bearish sentiment still gets noticed, but wiped away by the big premium investment.
Time to follow the vision again Sir.
I hope you are aware that there is a strong market for synthetic biotech companies? IMO Amyris is now better positioned than XON.
The year long experience of this company, yes - even the failures, will help making this a success story while standing on strong shoulders!
Reading the ongoing analysis and evaluation over this weekend, I cannot stop laughing about Friday's dip and truly have to thank all the shorts or who-ever who made this happen.
- 2Q17 a double beat
- 64% of float shorted (holy moly)
- EV now just about offering investment, should be double
- 2018 $16/sh @ EV/R 3 only, bottom evaluation
- ..
Now I have tears of laughter in my eyes and I have to stop typing, not to creating a short circuit in my keyboard :)
Now I understand where you're low PT is coming from.
Summer 2016 depressed price of around $4.65 happened due to lack of revenue starting in 2015. Company also had a liquidity crisis and indeed Bankruptcy could have been a possibility.
The negative sentiment was hard to cure, as always, it takes multiple quarters to repair previously done damage.
The T-1 and T-2 dilution lead to a retention of around 30% of pre-dilution value, hence $4.65 depressed lows equals $1.40.
Well, company is no more under bankruptcy risk for almost one year - and on filed paper for like 8 month.
Latest debt restructuring and re-capitalization removed all doubts about it, especially since they are now fully funded and won't need to find customers handing them out money upfront.
IMO this is a very important part of the equation.
Now we can look at the pre-dilution $8 bottom, equaling to $2.40 today. And it hit! Is that price reasonable at all?
I don't think so, since it reflected a bad ER outlier with the confusion of the impact of this offering as well as the RS depression. Previously the selling insider Temasek also pushed the price down, all these headwinds are gone now.
The offering took away debt and hence moved value to equity, book wise. Not even mentioning DSM's long term positive impact regarding revenue.
As of now, we are looking at a healthy company, financials being fixed and ready to fulfill its high margin product value share and collaborations.
No more biofuel
you should clean your ears a bit: 'double or better' even the CFO said, while low-balling expectations to not create another Melo disaster.
Performance compared w/ current MCAP assuming 64M OS fully diluted -> this stock is very cheap right now.
Recovery should indeed match last purchase price $4.26, equaling $14 pre-dilution or around $1 pre-RS.
When you realize the progress being made incl. production facilities and many not-mentioned items .. you will know what you have bought.
Hint: High overall revenue w/o much collaboration cash, while margins are low due to pending profit shares payout with higher margins. Also: DSM impact 2018-2019.
progress, going up again. Rejected at D 8ema and 20ma on first day of trend reversal while market was quite in distress.
With looming ER around the corner and completed offering including over-allotment, I would assume recovery at least up to $1.09/sh.
Evaluation is much higher, especially if comparing to 1/3 of VCYT, around $2.50/sh. Appreciation may happen in the ER run-up and continuous increasing performance. To become adjustd cash flow positive, only $1M was missing and could be reached this ER.
Mind that debt payments incl. interest etc are gone as well.
Threshold to break surely is $1.25/sh conversion price, since those Warrants will exchange a few points above it - maybe at $1.30.
T2 deal out, concerning $4.26/sh to Vivo,
which is below the $6.30 anti-dilutive Warrants triggering point.
Followed a few convos about this and conclusion seems to be:
- the $7+ goal due to DSM & Co buying at that price is gone
- even more dilution using these Warrants, avg down
The end game is not so clear here, but for sure won't increase the value for common, esp since investors now have an incentive to even short this stop down for lower conversion - at least temporarily.
Regardless whether they do that - the company has dropped the other shoe with that offering to Vivo, where they promised not to do so - promised no surprise.
Depressing, sold all shares today.
They seemingly are in dire distress to require the $25M from Vivo, even triggering the anti-dilutive threshold.
Reached 2016 lows, amazing. Opportunity maybe.
Support around here at 1.60 and 1.40
known legal issues:
(1) Not paying some employees http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2017-04-15/doc-ifyeimzx6412175.shtml
(2) Assets sealed due to unpayed debt http://m.toutiao.manqian.cn/wz_P0abcEIk5.html#
(translate yourself)
So what happened here? Will the sealed assets including the brand reduce 2Q17 revenue? Now the whole price plunge seems to make sense, it wasn't the name change.
Hope they resolve these issues soon.
Reduced position last days, may recover when and if they receive the desired trading license.
What a bummer )-8
.. and these follower buy all the $41M left on the table from Kalani? Interesting theory .. not :)
Kalani surely is grateful for the higher selling price,
but they will also make sure that the purchase price EOW will be back to bottom again. How else can they profit?
In conclusion, nice little RIPs seems to be allowed, but stay rational until Kalani-4 has been completed.
Tranche-B and 2Q17 ER waiting game, blocking recovery.
One way to look at the current MCAP evaluation is by comparing it to past performance, i.e. P/S ratio or whatnot. In this view, the stock is surely undervalued. Especially if you look at DSM's purchase price above $7/sh of the last Tranche-A offering.
Another way to evaluate the stock is simply by applying conventional and conservative metrics, here the company still has a long way to go to prove its future profitability. We know that.
COGS versus product-sales must be improved for profits finally. The profit-sharing instrument will not hit the bell yet, as shown in last investor relation presentation. The cooperation- or research-income might get reduced. All this may cause a flatlined revenue until 2018, until the new production facility can become online.
Conservatively speaking, the debt ratios are still sub-optimal and there is still no equity available for common shareholders, i.e. total liabilities outweighs all assets.
Anyway we look at it, company got the 'paying forward' long term DSM investment at a good premium. They can be patient for 2018/19 turnaround game, due to the great technological advantage of this company.
How will the Tranche-B offering, around additional 5M shares for DSM at above $6.30/sh be received?
Price appreciation forward as DSM does may not happen in the open market until next year and we may see more roller-coasters. However, let's be ready for this company's turnaround story. May signs be visible EOY or early 2018.
What's not to like, now that the Company is debt free and revenue constantly increasing? Last 4 MRQ even with positive income, starting with 2Q17.
One of the most dramatic turnaround stories happening right now.
Cutting off the old major biz while focusing on the cancer tests. Yes, they had to payback the debt via offerings - that is done by now. However, this will also add up to profitability due to removed interest payments.
Traded in the twilight zone still with every RIP being sold off, probably due to insecurity. Volume was quite low yesterday.
Stay tuned.
PS: Yes, the offering manipulation game is over by now. Over-allotment has been bought @ $1.09/sh and underwriters short selling is over.
Spot on
Yes, underwriter manipulated the stock in many ways in the last days.
Since over-allotment could be done already, incl. the option for More shares you mentioned - the ridiculous selling pressure should end this Monday and may even leave some confused retail shorts in the cold..
“Mytesi achieves much greater reductions in HIV-related diarrhea than was apparent in the ADVENT primary responder analysis,” commented Dr. Rodger D. MacArthur, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA. “Most patients saw meaningful reductions in diarrhea, with more than 75 percent experiencing at least a 50 percent reduction and more than half of patients experiencing complete resolution of diarrhea at week 24. I think it is important to note that results were consistent regardless of use of a protease inhibitor or the cause of the diarrhea.”
(1) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/data-shows-dramatic-reduction-chronic-130000785.html
(2) http://mytesi.com/clinical-results.html
(3) New Handout http://mytesi.com/assets/ias_crofelemer_eposter_and_handout_jul_2017.pdf
Expecting GE acquiring more Series D voting stock,
since he lost control as of now:
- 2016-09-09 3.5M shares of Series D Preferred Stock, voting power 100k/D = 350B
- 2017-06-22 208.33 shares of Series D Preferred Stock, voting power 20.83M
- 2017-07-21 29.76 shares of Series D Preferred Stock, voting power 2.98M
GE holds less voting power than the 5.19M OS now:
Total votes 8.17M (GE's Series D + OS), GE 2.98M 36.47%.
And surely he won't buy ordinary shares nor give up control.
Edit: I am also confident that last Friday Kalani did sell naked as usual, returning the shares later on w/ the 'purchase'.
Also shorts played a similar game Thursday and Friday, i.e. allowing a little bounce and dumping the pre borrowed shares at the (negotiated) top.
On Thursday morning the shares available were above 1M on IB, but before the drop only 500k .. hint hint.
DSM payed $7.425/sh for 7.94M, $58.95M and is willing to buy more at the same price range using tranche-b.
(i) 3,968,116 shares of Common Stock issuable upon conversion of 25,000 shares of Series B Preferred Stock (@ $6.30/sh, S-B @ $1k)
(ii) 3,968,116 shares of Common Stock issuable upon exercise of the Cash Warrants (1.98M @ $7.80 and 1.98M @ $9.30) @ $8.55/sh
Segment ER analysis from my buddy 01 on ST ..
After a below median quarter, they always posted a subsequent boost in the followup quarter - especially in 2Q.
bevg = beverages, the truly growth factor in here, besides the upcoming agricultural ECN exchange JV: 'China Agricultural Commodity Trading Center'.
Great post!
6/16 1st day below $1
7/28 30th trading day, not 7/30
So we have 8 days left .. quite tight timing here.
Also: They may use the overalotment (sic) to cover their short position.
Got filled 2.07 with an ask at 2.10, excellent.
I read other asks where even higher, hence shorts attempted to break support again.
Having 21 trading days left until ER this seems like an interesting risky gamble on the short's side, but that is the way to cover and accumulate low.
Only needs a few investors buying up the low float to RIP this stock now.
The sell off already happened, hence I beg to differ.
Volume / pace has slowed down, 2.12 bottom support with volume and two nice reversal candles while hovering in complete oversold territory with RSI 28 - 38, now 30.
Fundamentals render current price ridiculous cheap, i.e.
- $2.12 P/S 0.29
- $3.63 P/S 0.50
- $7.25 P/S 1.00
- $23/sh equity
- OS 5.17M
- Float below 2.8M, probably even below 2M, company insider hold 2.34M or 45.2% of OS
2Q17 ER probably will be similar to 2Q16, i.e. a seasonal revenue bump followed or even precluded by receiving the license for the new exchange business.
A similar run-up from the lows has been charted in 2016 around this time, i.e. post 1Q16 into 2Q16 ER.
The remaining share registration of last offering has even been canceled as described in the blog entry and company is ready for a turnaround removing seasonal fluctuations.
$2 PT and $0.925/sh Merger Conversion should run-up this stock until merger vote on 7/26, which is a sure thing due to NAPO ownership and positive expectations of over $100M revenue.
Merger will move equity into positive terrain from $(0.356) to $0.41 per share, a boost of 77 cents almost. This according to 424b3 prospectus pro-forma balance sheet of merged company page 319.
Hence the $2 PT w/ a P/S 2 and cheap conversion close to $1, makes sense. A later RS w/ merger to lift price above $3/sh for institutions would be natural.
Right now price is close to the usual bottom of 50 cents and it shall run-up as usual from this point like in February.
Time for JAGX again
"FTFT Fundamentals: MCAP Too Damn Low", covered by a SA blog entry describing the financial dislocation at the current traded price.
Assuming more juice sales, as hinted in their inventory as well as receiving the trading license for the new exchange with over $150M trading volume prospective (USD).
$0.076/sh - What Happened?
No SEC filing and nothing published,
any rumor that the company liquidates, winds down?
No news since delisting.
but what IF the preliminary injunction gets granted and no more shares are being dumped below X/sh?
btw .. who knows the requested threshold price X?
IMO if granted, well .. it is sort of a positive rotfl