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Well T'RedGT....what can I say....I just don't think it's sp all by its' lonesome. it just can't have that big of an impact on the global economy...& even if it does, it's still too soon to tell how much of an effect it'll truly have if it has any @ all. I don't think the big boys have been movin their funds around in order to protect themselves from this issue...not yet anyways. Now of course it could be several factors all comin into play at once as noted in my other post.....but I gotta think that for the most part it's simple t/a programs triggerin sigs & perhaps an early whisper is makin the rounds on the China revaluation thread? But again I gotta say...WTFDIK?
Sometimes we try to think too much & get all fancy in our justifactions as to y things r goin certain ways...& from personal experience I can tell ya....overthinken will A) keep ya'up @ nite & B) only cloud your thinken.
So 4 me not havin ta overthink is a good thing as thinken comes hard enuff 4 me as it were....well that's my excuse n e ways & I'm stiken 2 it :0
BOLTY as well...as always.
Cheers!!
since the March bottom we're lookin at approx 600 pips....120 pips/mos on ave.....if u catch the bottom.
My doom arse newbie take...I don't think the latest retrace is all b/c of the sp news....wonderin if perhaps there may finally be some "progress" on the currency valuation thread? Somethin the big boys may know that we lil fish aint aware of quite yet?
Other than that the only other fundi & or t/a reason as 2 the fairly sizeable retrace as of late...maybe it's nothin more than t/a programs tellin the institutions it's time for the law of ave's to make a play & bring it back down....& if that's the case then I gotta say we should be expectin more of a fall to follow....& of course even more so if it has anything to do w/the revaluation thread....& if it's all 3 (revaluation, sp & t/a) coming together....could be a perfect storm brewin here.
Tell u what tho.....the sp news looks to be havin an effect here...almost down 10% in 1 week.....a fairly decent hit indeed.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJUSHB&t=5d
Any1 wanna slap me around....be my guest.
Well that's a fairly big grace saving there.....58 cents on the greenback? Is that right?
& as far as prop values go....I can tell ya that living in Nor Cal (approx 30 clicks due east of SF)....the last few mos not only has our mrkt shown a bottom (is it a false bottom?) but it has steadily begun a climb back up....approx + 2-4% since 4/07.
& typically....our region (cali) leads the mrkt & most others follow....so if regions like Nevada begin to move up over the next q or 2...then it may be safe to say we've seen a bottom as far as prop values go.....stay tuned.
Off now to go enjoy another awesome day.....74 right now w/a 4cast daytime high in the mid 80's.
Backatcha's L8tr on
Cheers!!
What's the genl consensus here? ....
another 3-4 Q's worth of pain? I'm thinken by then (Q3/4 '08) there should be maybe another 2-3 yrs max left of sp loans on the books....& by then it'll be easier to 4cast where the bottom will truly be....thus the mrkts will then be able to more accurately handicap it all & begin to bake in those #'s.
& the sb pain in the UK wont be nearly as bad as in the US imo....we Nephews of ol' Uncle Sammy be a nation of gamblers over here on this side of the pond....much more so than any of the Queens Paupers.
My .02 cents worth anyways.
How's that tune go?.....what's up pussy cat....whoa whoa whoa...
back up to my ol neighborhood....
Worn_Buffet 44 41,906,373 -15.90 0.04 4.47
& here's to the cable fallin back down ta earth b4 the eom.
Cheers!!
"Being a Pessimist means you're either going to be right or pleasantly surprised'"
well that sure was some delay.....there's been hawkish sp news now for quite sometime....& even early last week we had some hawkish sp news that effected the currencies fairly quickly.
Not sure the dips today could be attributed to the sp thread....but wtfdik.
Cheers!!
already baked-in from last weeks comments?
& bailed early (of course...as per usual) w/a 12.2 pip gain.....wouldn't be a Worn trade w/out an early bail in the green ;)~
goin 4 a dead cat bounce (pun INtended as always)
long turtle (aint that usd/jpy?...jus ck'n)
121.066 tp 121.558
I don't c it but here it is
Worn_Buffet 40 37,769,794 -15.90 0.00 -0.49
tho note....I did hit a short usd/chf last night to put me back in the green....closed it out after midnite est so those #'s aren't reflected here. But as long as Potter dies w/in the next 16 hrs I'll be lookin even better :0
Damn that cable already...tho as of this moment I'm up approx 4K even w/the cable considered...down 450+ pips :(...
Went to great local 4x meetin ystrdy....in short there was professor there given us free t/a tips. Tell ya more later but EVERY1 (all of 8 folks..lol) there is gettin ready to short the cable BIG X.
Any1 ever here of OperaPro & or Solid Gold? Both are Brokers.
I hear ya....bein on pst out west here it makes it extra tuff....I'd say from approx 1-3a until 7-10a pst is prime 4X time....so just a lil after I go ta bed the mrkt begins doin its' thang...then not long after I finally begin to feel 1/2 alive in the AM....the mrkt goes to bed.
My best trades have been the 1's I've opened up just as I'm goin to bed...seems those trades almost always close in the green b4 I wake up...hehe.
sounds like roasting cookies on an open fire....so while u r @ it...throw a cookie on the stick 4 me while we watch the cable roast da both of us....misery luvz co eh.
short usd/chf .20025 tp .19845
Seems some1 tossin their cookies has helped a few of us out a bit ;)~
& just in time as I've fallen approx 50% of my 4+% mark
Capitalist 8 119,663 -5.01 0.22 7.79
Worn_Buffet 36 35,343,831 -15.90 0.03 2.65
Phonetic 33 10,651,754 -0.81 0.14 1.54
Netman 2 203,080 -0.06 -0.28 0.10
Jester_Vandalay 93 9,944,017 -19.35 0.11 -3.55
fernando 1 3,416,870 -10.25 -0.25 -10.27
diegoman 39 41,042,730 -11.25 -0.43 -36.05
dr_sean 1 263,380 -33.43 -0.15 -41.61
Mr. Parkins 14 25,160,836 -28.20 -0.34 -48.45
AtaGlance2 102 26,399,335 -45.67 -0.16 -56.65
jrbscrazy 152 31,754,040 -51.29 -0.41 -73.19
*Statistics reflect account status as of July-18-2007 00:00
Go w/what you feel most confident with....then start to broaden your trading wings a bit to become a more well rounded trader...usin a few diff strats is always best imo...unless you simply wanna keep it simple...which is fine too. When I 1st began learnin I too scalped which I think is a good place to start....teaches you to take the $$$ or get out ASAP....a basic fundimental for 4X (or any mrkt 4 that matter) trading I believe.
If you want more pips however you're gonna have ta look at longer term charts & of course in turn...you will most likely on ave need to stay in the positions awhile longer.....& may even need to modify'em as some turn red....either take your losses or as I say & been known 2 do @ times "step on it" & go for more (pain). This is where I am at now in trying to learn a diff style of trading.....was gettin lucky for the 1st 2 weeks w/it but now I feel the tables turnin on me...& it only took 1 trade too.....shorted the cable approx 2 weeks ago now & it's done nothin but kick my ass ever since....in a way...guess I'm kinda happy it has....keeps me from gettin too cocky :0
Trading is so individulistic that no1 else except you can decide which way to take it & when u r ready to try new things...if ever.
Having said that...shame on me as I forget who...but some1 here a few days ago (dont think it was a reg poster) posted a 12 page .pdf called "The 10 Rules of Trading"...perfect stuff for a Novice like I....had to do w/16 & 32 day ema crosses I believe.
Whoever it was that posted it here....TYVM!!! Good stuff.
Cheers!!
& dont forget to sniff....
did go short again on the cable @ .05392...lookin ok 4 now....hopefully it'll begin the long awaited retrace now & get me back to respectibility w/in a few days.
On a lighter note....finally saw Babel tonight....yes, I was being sarcastic w/re 2 "on a lighter note"...man alive was that a tuff 1 ta watch....good flick....but fairly draining.
Time to go recharge the battery & wake up to a falling cable knife.
Cheers!!
indeed....what goes up....eh....
tho it's north of 250 now...quite the lil rocket ride it b on.
Think I was mistaken w/the fancy lil names we go by here....I called it the beast...& now based on your reply it seems as if the Beast is gbp/jpy....my headache is with gbp/usd...the cable I do believe. Tho I gotta say the cable is bein 1 hellouva beast to me....lol Guess I should rather be sayin...I'm gettin hung by the cable...436 pips & countin....YIKES!!
Now nearly wipen out all my gains of 25K...less a measily pissant 2K....OUCH & Grrrrrrrrrr!!!
Guess I should short it too when the time comes....try to mitigate some of those losses on the ride down.
Wonderin if I shouldn't try 2 time it & just take up a short position now & hold it til eom...see what happens....I'm thinken it'll fall more from here than go up much more....then again I said that 100 pips ago earlier today as well...lol
I don't think the latest chart is what you had in mind when speaking of relief.....man alive is the beast on roidz or what. Never have had a beating nearly this bad....now north of 400 pips & it aint lookin like it wants to give much back.
JRB....it's tell'n u...."short me if u dare" As Dirty Harry would say..."do you feel lucky?" :0
Well I have an e z Rx 4 that prob....
the ol "go w/your (cat)gut & do the opposite" strat.....has worked wonders 4 me over the yrs while in the casino's ;)~
Thus far I'm up 25.1% on the mos over at Oanda....just got that lil monkey still on my back (short gbp/usd) that I gotta somehow get rid of.....not sure how I'll do that...down 368 pips at last glance....taken my 25% pr to a paltry 5.5%.
Don't think it (cable) can get much worse 4 me tho....I really dont see it spikin up all that much from here....but then again...I've been known 2 blow some serious smoke from X 2 X :0
Alright....1/2 way thru my daily allotment of posts here....x 2 give it a rest.
l8tr
OK...it's all yours...decided to take my 8.2 pips & run....
+ I made a mistake w/that trade & managed to open up 2 positins a few 10ths of a pip from each other....gotta love that Oanda feature....talk about splitten hairs....lol
Then when u say u wanna go the other direction against me....well then I gotta bow to the wiley ol' Vet here.
GL w/it....I gotta ck out now....Cheers!!
what...is this like Baccarat or somethin? U dont wanna bet 'Player" cuz I'm on "Banker" ;)~
How nice of u....good thing 4 u tho thus far....I'm up a scalpin 6.2 pips....hehe
Tell u what....as soon as I get out I'll let ya know...lol
long aud/usd @ 87216 - tp 87397
so no 1 w/Vonage experience here?
Will be on their service by Fri....& if there's any1 out there who still has SunRocket VOIP.....bail quick or else lose $$$ & your number. I was lucky....got all my $$$ refunded (credit card thankfully...the charge was 4 mos to the day...ystrdy) & got to keep my # w/Vonage.
Lotza folks weren't as lucky I'm hearin on the VOIP blogs the last 24 hrs.
Makes sense....but is it truly fair?
Sounds to me like 1 can skew their #'s whenever & by as much as they possibly can.
What's the risk of doing this? If none, why doesn't every1 do this? I assume that if you take (demo) funds out...they remain in a holding acct where u can tap into it at anytime should u need to.
Where there's a will...hehe
Any1 here this....Japan earthquake causes nuke plant damage/leakage....13K homeless.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070717/ap_on_re_as/japan_quake;_ylt=Aqw.Q4fS8U4clhHortz510Ws0NUE
F'n killen me plain 'n simple.
Boo-whooo.....
if not for the gbp/usd short of a week ago (yes, it's still open & gettin worse :0 ) I'd be north of a pr of 23+ %.....went short usd/chf overnight for another 20 pips (19.5 I think it was....love how Oanda breaks'em down..lol)...closed it out @ .20015
Will be busy today....our new 4 month old VOIP carrier (SunRocket) decided to shut their doors ystrdy w/out tellin anyone...so I gotta scramble around lookin for another provider....anyone have any luck w/Vonage...or any other VOIP carrier? I'm on a cable line running 2 gigs so my VOIP quality couldn't be much better...really love the VOIP service....call anywhere, anytime w/out having to worry about minutes....u even get a few free Intl mins per month (they dont roll over tho) that we never use...lol
OK...even w/all my red in the gbd/usd trade...I'm still hangin on to 3rd....how I haven't a clue...altho I've been priddy consistent w/hitten a trade or 2 per day of 20 +/- pips....is that really all it takes here w/u guys? lol j/k of course....somethin is tellin me that as we get closer to eom you fellerz really start ta put da pedal 2 da metal....go 4 the jugular as they say....lay low like a snake (or cat) in the grass...& then pounce when the time is right....hehe
PS...JRB....somethin is tellin you have us right where u want us ;)~
Display Name Number of Trades Volume of Trades (USD) Maximum Drawdown Sharpe Ratio Portfolio Return (%)
Jester_Vandalay 73 4,977,071 -15.31 0.20 109.93
Capitalist 8 119,663 -5.01 0.15 4.86
Worn_Buffet 24 22,418,008 -15.90 0.04 4.27
Phonetic 30 10,564,465 -0.81 0.15 1.44
Netman 2 202,589 -0.06 -0.30 0.08
fernando 1 3,416,870 -10.25 -0.27 -10.28
AtaGlance2 98 25,069,938 -45.67 -0.07 -29.48
diegoman 35 35,527,500 -11.25 -0.39 -31.51
dr_sean 1 263,380 -33.43 -0.17 -45.54
Mr. Parkins 14 25,160,836 -28.20 -0.37 -48.46
jrbscrazy 145 29,656,856 -51.29 -0.30 -61.75
*Statistics reflect account status as of July-16-2007 00:00
Just bailed on long gbp/jpy for 17 pips worth on 3 units.....came back down from the mtn & saw that I was only 3 pips away from my tp pt...so bein Worn....I took da $$$ a lil early & ran.
Good pt....I guess if 1 is only lookin for 20-30 pip moves it aint all that bad of a time 2 b huntin. Tho 50+ pip moves are more unlikely during these hrs I gather....not out of the realm of possibilities of course...just not as likely.
I'm oudda here in a few w/my girls....we've never taken the kids up to the local state park right here in our backyard....Mt. Diablo. A peak alt of approx 3800+ ft. In my school dayze I used ta wonder up there for some quiet/serene study time. Awesome views of the SF Bay region.....it's really best right after a good rain in the winter....u can actually see all the snow in Tahoe & the Sierra Nevada foothills.
http://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=517
http://www.ccdemo.info/MtDiablo/MtDiablo.html
Bactatcha's l8tr on 4 da pst night shift.
Cheers!!
Whoa.....now dat dar sure b sum over'n above da call of doody customer support there....wonder if maybe they were also thinken that perhaps some1 may have hijacked your acct? A fraud protection call of sorts?
Grant it as I understand it....this is a fairly krappy time of day 2 b tradin. From 4-5a pst to approx 11a pst is the best/most fluid & thus active x's 2 b lookin 4 your spots eh?
w/u @ 248.27 w/a tp @ .50 too..3 units worth...
beg 2 think my short gbd/usd aint comin back anytime soon...at least this week anyways....I'll be lucky if it comes back by eom at this rate.
Thx....& in turn.....here's where I be.....
Display Name Number of Trades Volume of Trades (USD) Maximum Drawdown Sharpe Ratio Portfolio Return (%)
Jester_Vandalay 73 4,977,071 -15.31 0.20 109.93
Capitalist 8 119,663 -5.01 0.15 4.86
Worn_Buffet 24 22,418,008 -15.90 0.04 4.27
Phonetic 30 10,564,465 -0.81 0.15 1.44
Netman 2 202,589 -0.06 -0.30 0.08
fernando 1 3,416,870 -10.25 -0.27 -10.28
AtaGlance2 98 25,069,938 -45.67 -0.07 -29.48
diegoman 35 35,527,500 -11.25 -0.39 -31.51
dr_sean 1 263,380 -33.43 -0.17 -45.54
Mr. Parkins 14 25,160,836 -28.20 -0.37 -48.46
jrbscrazy 145 29,656,856 -51.29 -0.30 -61.75
*Statistics reflect account status as of July-16-2007 00:00
& how come we can't view the stats whenever we want like most of the other contests listed? Is it cuz ours is private or somethin? (dint think it was)....jus curious.
& w/re to the Subprime diddy u posted.....indeed, not only do I personally feel that crunch w/re to my 4X position I took up last week (long turtle) a day prior 2 the latest hawkish news on that front....one of my investment property mortgages I took out (8/05) is one of those lil freaks.....a 1% teaser for the 1st 3 yrs (yes, a neg am......don't get me started) which is sched'd to reset in approx 13 mos. There were several reasons I decided to go the neg-am route back then. The main 1 was that the genl mrkt/fed consensus (Uncle Ben Berney @ the time) at the time was that the fed would only raise rates 1, maybe 2 more times b4 they stop raisen'em....not more than 1/2 a basis pt in total...maybe 2 .25 pt raises at the most.....which now we all know now was not the case....the .25 basis pt rate hikes continued for another 5+ Q's thereafter...da ratbastards!!! Grrrrrrr!!! Thus the loan principal has gone up approx 11+K in less than 24 mos.....@ 1st I was making more than the minimum payment to keep the principal in check (from increasing too much)...but then wadda ya know....the current tenants who were on a 3 yr lease option to buy decided to bailout after their 1st yr on a 3 yr lease option...at least leaving me w/the extra $$$ towards their down & sec dep, etc...they are also still on the hook for the remaining negative thru the term of their lease (8/08) for which we've settled w/em for .70 cents on the dollar....they continue to property manage both homes for us....not a bad deal.....they pay us to property manage our rentals...hehe
So then I was faced w/lookin for new tenants @ a significantly lower monthly rate (not a lease/option deal)...approx $600/mos lower....which of course then put me into a negative monthly draw....Grrr!!!! So at that time I decided to make the minimum payments & letting the principal go up just so I wouldn't be takin a monthly hit of $5-600.
& of course the other reason I went the neg-am route....I thought I was either gonna be sellin the home to the current tenants in 8/08 at our pre-agreed upon price, or renegotiating another lease option term w/them or selling the home all together to another party. Never really considered them bailing out all together & walking away from all their $$$$ thus remaining liable for the rest of the monthly negative thru 8/08.....silly me.
Well at least now I have new tenants in there who are paying $300/mos more than the previous tenants & on a 1 yr lease which takes us priddy much up to the end of the original lease option in 8/08....soften'n the blow a bit for the next yr. However then I gotta consider property values...which have not fallen out of the sky thankfully....but they have come down a bit....approx 5% below (but now going back up a bit...fee-u) our original purchase price....was actually up over 10% at 1 point...thot we were lookin sweet at that time.....oh well. So now I hold my breath 4 another yr & see what kinda loan I can re-fi into...def NOT a neg-am.....dont even think any1 will be offerin those by this time next yr anyways....thankfully...in many more ways than 1....lol
Anmyways.....indeed I am a believer that we gotta be very cognizant of all this subprime news....that along w/a few other hawkish events that could easily come out of the US may very well all come togther to create a perfect storm takin the greenback for a huge fall. Don't think the subprime factor could do it all by itself, but it could be a major facilitator indeed imo.
Having said all that....anyone know of any good wholsesale mortgage brokers out there? lol
I hit a short usd/cad overnight....& let it run on its' own w/o 'worn'n about it ;)~ 4 an approx 20 pips.
Never did see the contest stat update so in case I missed it (just did a real quick glance thru the posts) here I be...
Worn_Buffet 24 22,418,008 -15.90 0.04 4.27
gbd/usd short is still KILLEN me :(......
Awesome link there Cap.....THX a boatload.....so 4X Made EZ is rated a scam....figures....read several reviews & man alive am I glad I didn't lay down any $$ on that platform.
& JRB I gotta tell ya.....the more I read 'n learn from other various sources 'n sites, the more I agree w/u...best to demo 4 as long as u need to all the while absorbin & learnin as much u can....then when/if u think u r ready....take those $$$ u were thinken about plunkin down on a platform & go w/a broker you've done extensive DD on. Which brings me back to Cap's link to Felix da Bastard (lol).....evidently MG has downscaled as of late & does not have the decent reputation it once had. & I can totally see how they (MG) make ya feel like a demo King from the get-go....then once they get your $$$$....all of the sudden (& quite "mysteriously") u aint quite trader u thot u were :0
Godd stuff Gentz....thx again.
OK...back to bein a 4X sponge ;)~
aud/usd long lookin good at the moment up 12 pips.....think I'll hold onto this 1 for the planned 30 pips....typically w/me I tend 2 take the early $$$ & run......gonna try & spread my wings on this 1...+ I like it & think it should run awhile so y should I bail now? Confidence Worn....confidence! hehe
OK...looks as if this is my 1st post on the new 24 hr clock so I best mellow out now til manana AM.....time to turn it in...Cheers!!
"Bein a Pessimist means you're either right or pleasntly surprised"
Hehe...was just a trivia ? that was asked by the Cat....
pip = price interest point...ie the movement in any one direction of a currency pair.
just closed out aud/jpy long for 30 pips....bought it on the 12th.....now goin w/long aud/usd @ .87105
If not for the short gbd/usd (I've had since the middle of last week) I'd be lookin real strong right now....still down over 230 pips there......if it comes back for me...look out....if not, it'll be a world of demo hurt 4 me. Til then I best scalp da beejeezus oudda da mrkt :0
Hmmmm....mrkt has been open for the better part of an hr & no 1 is home. Guess it's true...every1 puts their hedas under the pillow so as to keep their pockets from gettin picked.....Monday must be the day of preferance 4 pockets gettin picked :0
Gotta run.....cheers!!
I'm seein a nice lil spike 2 the north w/aud/jpy yet when I try to jump on it.....a message appears the trading day is closed.....Hmmm.....seems like there's some pre-mrkt activity that goes on....or is this simply the platforms way of testing itself to make sure its' ready for action? & I'm ref to MG's platform here.....tho over at Oanda it seems I'm seein some some action as well...but there again they aint lettin me in.
& in addition ta runnin 2 gigs I'm also on a cable line.....here's a newbie ? 2 beg the tradin week with....
Are there certain pr's that begin the new trading week sooner?
Seems I'm currently seein activity w/aud/usd, aud/jpy & maybe another pr or 2. Is this right? Does AUD open a lil sooner than some other pr's?
Only reason I ask is cuz the following is taken from the info page here 4 this board
"Forex is a true 24-hour market, open continuously from 5:00pm ET on Sunday to 4:30 pm on Friday"
Aint it 4:49 est right now?
MG's demo never expires either & u can reload as many times as you want. & 4 the record, I was able 2 login on my Oanda demo just now.
I understand Oanda my be one of the few platforms that offer these competitions.....that is an awesome feature indeed.
Ya know I gotta say w/re to Oanda...
I too have had probs (only have had the demo acct there for 2 weeks now) w/em...takin time to load once loggin in (I'm runnin 2 gigs on a newly upgraded system)....not being able to login @ times....yada yada yada. However w/MG I've never had any probs w/em at all. This my 2nd demo stint w/MG...the 1st one was a lil over a yr ago & back then I never encountered any probs w/em either....a very reliable & user friendly platform MG is imo.
I know most folks here are Oanda fans but so far, I aint sold on'em.
Note: I do realize that if you have a live acct w/Oanda one would most likely not encounter such probs as their live accts exist on enitrely different servers...at least this is what I think I've heard.