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OT: EGY is running
Thanks for the info on the EEZ Balance.
I wonder what kind of dissapointment is going on over at EEL over the delay in the Sao Tome EEZ round. The EEZ was their bread and butter and they cant be too happy over a one or two year delay in that round. At least ERHC has the JDZ to fall back on. The Sao Tomeans never cease to amaze me with their inability to ever get anything done. Apparently they dont want the money.
Pup,
Hang tight man. Everything will work out ok.
Mongo, you never believed that ERHC would actually win awards did you? Well what happened to that prognostication? That was a major gaffe on your part. Not a minor gaffe, a major gaffe. You were wrong about the most important event in this company's history. How do you defend that? What makes you think you have a shread of credibility when you were so blatantly wrong about the most important event in this companies history?
Now you are fixated on the share price? The share price right now doesnt matter. What matters is that progress is being made in the JDZ. And what will really matter is whether oil will be found in the JDZ. When and if oil is found the share price will take care of itself.
Stop being so myopic........
I have just read through a hundred posts on RB and many here. I will state my opinion on share price.
I attribute the lousy share price to a lack of buying interest. Everyone else seems to blame it on a big seller or manipulation. Do I think some manipulation has gone on such as on awards day? Yes.
Do I feel manipulation is going on right now? Im not sure. But I think the real problem is a alck of interest in the stock as well as light volume. Not many shares are changing hands every day for a company with a float of over 300 million shares.
We have a $280 milion market cap right now. It can be argued that is high for a company at this stage just as it could be argued that it is way too low.
Mongo, rather than asking us to waste our valuable time digging up information on buyouts why dont you do that for us. Why must we do all of the work? TIA and start contributing to the board for a change.
Oil Companies in Kazakhastan tend to be valued differently than oil companies in other regions of the world due to the political situation their. The govt takes a bigger piece of the pie.
PKZ, Char, and TMY for example.
I wonder whatever happened to Swinging K?
OT: Did anyone buy any EGY (Vaalco Energy)? Its been on a nice run and should really launch after Etame #6 well results and 2nd qtr earnings are released.
Bobwins, on a side note. I remember this time last year when you kept telling everyone that TGA was your favorite stock. People started questioning you because the stock was stuck in the mud for about 6 months. Then last September it just exploded upward and has not looked back since. I believe you will be correct on EGY as well.
P.S. Nice call on ASPN also.
Bobwins, a poster from the EGY board gave what I felt was a well thought out reason for the lag in the EGY share price. Basically stating that EGY is still working through the overhang from the 1818 fund shares that were distributed. EGY should be just about done working through that overhang. The stock should begin to move nicely after that imo.
Share supply surmises and assumptions-1
From an 8K filed on 3/17/05
Distribution of the 1818 Fund Shares
<>On March 17, 2005, The 1818 Fund II, L.P. sold 35,898,695 shares of common stock of VAALCO in a series of block trades at a price of $3.85 per share. The Company trades on the American Stock Exchange. In connection with the block trades, the 1818 Fund converted 6,667 shares of VAALCO’s Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A, representing all of VAALCO’s outstanding preferred stock, into 18,334,250 shares of common stock. On the same date, the 1818 Fund acquired 4,635,244 shares of common stock upon the cashless exercise of a warrant. The shares sold in the block trades represented all of the common stock beneficially owned by the 1818 Fund.
The only 5% holder in the 4/25/03 proxy was the:
The GLG North American Opportunity Fund 4,407,969 shrs
Brown Bros. Harriman waa a party to the 36m shares sold at $3.85. My surmise is that the 36m shares were probably sold
offshore and are now washed and being returned at a discount. Metlife Insurance filed a 13G soon after the sale which indicates to me that money men were informed and given a chance to quickly dispose of their holdings because the 36m shares were not placed in safe hands. Suppose that good market efficiency placed about 40% of the 36M in long term hands, then there were about 22M available for short term trades. About 6M were then sold above the 3.85 cost before 4/11/05. Given market dynamics in the past, the remainder of the short term shares are really looking for a home. This pot of shares probably is around 15-20M shares
Until all those shares are resold into safe hands, don't expect any big gains. So far about 32M shares have traded since 4/11.
If we assume that about 25-30% of these(10M) are now in safe hands, we still have a pot of 5-9M shares looking for a home.
Trading volume for the last 4 weeks has been 1.8-2.4M shrs/wk. Anyone buying now is aware of most of this background :
- the big sale in March
- the large supply at the ask since then
- outstanding value of EGY at these prices
Therefore, a good assumption would be that 50% of the volume places the shares in safe hands.
The supply should dry up in about 2 more weeks if the above surmises and assumptions are valid.
Why did you call me flow? Am I Mongo also lol?
I agree that would be a very entertaining debate. I wasnt trying to knock nwtf whatsoever. But I would love to see him and Mongo debate.
Nwtf I wasnt trying to imply that you were like Mongo or a basher. I was merely stating that i would like to see you and Mongo get into it once in a while.
Thats my take as well and probably the turkey man's as well so thanks for the response.
ntwf why dont you ever challenge Mongo? Why do you challenge posters such as myself, the daneslapper, balancebuilder, and blow shea?
Id like to see you spar with Mongo. If nothing else it would be highly entertaining.
Take care of some business nwtf1071.
At the very least tell us what you think about Mongo and why he could possibly be here.
Why are you here?
What is your purpose here?
Yeah Maestro, its amazing to me that someone could be invested in a stock and not even know the outstanding share count. Whats the matter with you.
Its 710 million not 770 million LMAO
Ok Maeestro I was wrong. I apologize. My mentor "tryagain" said so so I will listen.
Yes even to you Prophetti lol.
Go get your pacifier. And dont forget the Gerbers.
Prophetti, maestro brought it up so I addressed it. Try being a little more secure in your investment while your at it.
I dont believe as I said before that the dilution will be najor but I would have to believe there will be some.
Maestro, how many shares does ERHC have authorization to issue? By my recollection they have the authorization to issue 950 million shares total. As of the last 10q they were at 710 million. Do you think there will still be 710 million shares out by the time the next 10q is issued? Its possible. But doubtful. I would imagine they are issueing some more shares. And if they havent they probably will be.
ERHC throws away shares as if they are nothing. 40 million shares here, 50 million share their. Well eventually that catches up to you. A) it hurts your credibility in the investment community and B) there are too many free shares floating around which make it difficult for the share price to rise.
Its too bad Offor doesnt have the money. We could use a share buyback program.
You guys keep bringing up "the seller". The seller might very well be ERHC trying to raise some capital.
The message below is from Extractor8 on RB. I agree with extractor. Offor's reputaion for diluting shares has hurt the share price. And I believe there is some form of dilution going on right now. The dilution going on right now is probably justified as long as it is kept to a minimum. It was the dilution that got us to 750 million shares outstanding that has hurt ERHC reputation imo including the .175 shares issued to FAB. That was ridicluous and imo further tarnished ERHC's reputation among institutional investors. Why would they invest in ERHC now knowing the possibility that Offor would dilute their investment. Here is Extractor's post:
Summeroil
I own both ERHC and EEL. On paper ERHC is far more interesting than EEL, i.e. there is clearly more value. However, our Emeka Offor seems to be an asset and liability at the same time. He does a superb job in building the company but at the same time he is diluting the company outrageously. Every time that the price should go up logically, dilution kills the increase. This has to change.
As a result, there is not much respect or interest for ERHE with institutional investors. This is quite the contrary for EEL, they are well respected. EEL has a number of investment funds invested in them who, as I heard, will not sell before they are at 400 (barring unforeseen events). In addition, EEL's PR is far better than ERHC's but I understand that ERHE is now correcting the issue.
It will not be the funds of the people on this board that will drive ERHE's sp to the levels we all want to see: we need institutional investors to do this. If Emeka Offor decreases his dilution and ERHE get's it's PR right, I am very optimimistic about ERHE's future shareprice.
I tend to always agree with "tryagain" from RB.
By: grebea
07 Jul 2005, 03:18 PM EDT
Msg. 60526 of 60588
Jump to msg. #
Laser Organ Systems Equipment Recal (BB:LOSER) that is a stock to be in!!
(See guys, this is what he was referring to when he was saying the drilling schedule will be announced. And when he later said check the website he was referring to this company. It had nothing to do with the JDZ, oil, or ERHC. He was messing with you guys.)
Grebeas was playing a trick on everybody on RB. In a previous post he had posted something about a company that made laser drills. Then a few posts later he posted something about a drilling schedule.
The drilling schedule had nothing to do with oil, ERHC, the JDZ or anything. The drilling schedule was referring to this other stock he apparently owns in this company that makes laser drills.
Well you guys spoke and ERHC listened. I kind of preferred it when the PR person called people assholes. It made for a more exciting stock and and fun message board.
But this new PR person will probably be much better for the share price. So I guess I will support her as much as i did my girl, Mz. Barker.
Yeah it might only be 10 million or 20 million.
But let me say my new favorite saying right now before I go any further.
BWTFDK
(The stock market has a funny way of making one feel stupid all of the time lmao)
I agree Doug. I dont think its a big deal. In a way I would welcome it. Id rather they do it now and get it over with then dilute later. And I dont think the dilution is substantial anyway if it is occuring.
bwtfdk
I now believe the reason we have seen the share price drip down is we have had some form of dilution by the company. I dont believe it has been anything major. But just enough to prevent the stock price from moving up.
ERHC probably sold some shares into the awards news and has in dribs and drabs ever since. So maybe we have 800 million outstanding instead of 750 million.
It is to be expected. they have to raise some capital and this is probably the best way to do it. And if they were going to do this now would be the time. So you cant really blame them if this is the case.
BTWDIK
Very well stated iceking. You should be an author.
I cut and pasted it from raging bull. Read the bottom of the message.
I thought the JDA had said that all companies accepted. If not then my bad.
Devon only had 5% of block 3 becuase ERHE has 20% and the combiination of ERHE/Devon had 25% so no big deal there. In block 2, ERHE/Dev/Pioneer have 65% but 30% of that is ERHE's existing rights. That leaves 35% to split between the three so Devon had maybe 15% of block 3.
(Bullwriter posted this on RB. I dont really think Devon pulling out is any great loss. It could mean more for Pioneer and ERHC)
P.S. I would love to here Barry Morgan's take on this.
It could ftc. Who knows what is really going on behind the scenes. I wouldnt mind seeing Noble join Pioneer and ERHC as a consortium on Blocks 2 and 3. That would be very good.
What I would like to find out from Devon is what changed? they knew what their cut was. Supposedly they accepted the awards a couple of weeks ago. So why the change of heart? Maybe it had something to do with the indies that are involved. But if that is the case then they should have not accepted the award instead of wasting everyones time.
On first read this sounds bad. But maybe Pioneer or Noble will pick up Devon's cut and all will move according to plan. Sometimes I wonder if they werent in this thing to sabotage it. Pioneer has always sounded legitimately enthusiastic. I never saw the same from Devon. I wouldnt get in a panic over this. I would imagine there will be interest on the part of others (maybe even ERHC) to pick up the slack.