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MDF selling will continue some more time... even into and after earning... PPS will drag for some more time..
I thought it wills ettle at $2.5 (when it's at $3+) but I aws wrong...
1M+ more shares to be sold..
earlier those sellers were patient and just putting their ask at 1 cents above the bid and let the buyers come..
now I think they can't wait... impatient.. and that's waht happen with small cap stock
I just hope their selling has nothing to do with the Q4 earning result...
I agree with Bob on MDF. I think there’s a lot of potential in this new area and you will see later on that several other small companies will start jumping in. I think it’s important to get in early and grab market share. With the funding increase resulted from the MMA, there’s enough opportunity (provided one can carefully manage the cost and risk) to start serving in those so-called underserved market. Once they start getting 2000-3000 patient/member, they will be able to operate comfortably (at least break even). Seniors definitely will think a lot before changing but if MDF give amazing service then we can expect them getting some members and those members will be loyal to MDF (as they are also reluctant to change unless the preposition is very compelling)
What I also think MDF needs is a good contingency plan and also a good exit plan. Learn from previous mistakes. If they can’t get enough members to operate efficiently and profitably after a certain amount of time, they need to execute their contingency plan (whether it be aggressive marketing, lower price or improve service) . then if it still doesn’t work, they need to have it ready to close it or sold it with minimal loss (if possible)
I am confident however that this time, MDF won’t need to exercise those options, but it’s always good to have some plan to protect the existing profitable business (PSN).
I’m hoping that once the HMO is up and running, they will start signing up members at a minimum rate of 300-500 per month on the first year. And increasing the range to 500-1000 members in the second and third year. With totaling about 25,000 additional members within 4-5 years. I think this is very achievable.
Stan
Bloodbath on MDF... but I expected it... as I mentioned too many sellers... big sellers... PPS will suffer for some more time... need time to absorb that 1M+ shares...
Looking forward to a great 2006 and 2007
Stan
Agree Bob on MDF, PPS will drag for some time though... too many shares on the ask.. S-8 shares needs to be unloaded.. about 1M+ shares..
Curious waht the action be after the earning next week..
My take is that stock will jump a bit then pullback due to the neverending supply of stock..
which remind me a bit of the GEXA MZ situation....
Long and Strong...
That SkiBum in yahoo board starts to annoy me (finally)... Initially I thought he's onto something... he just can't agree with Mike Earley, period, no matter what Earley do..
Stan
Any thoughts on DAOU. Cap $4M. Cash $10M, Equity $18M, no debt, Break even in Q4.
I used to own this and sold at .60 (miss the chance to sell at $1) when they hit first unprofitable quarter. balance sheet always looks good. I haven't buy it back but been watching it closely.. any thoughts?
probably should be in the zip code change board.
HWEB: MDF Q4 EPS .04-.05 tops IMO. I'm also long on this one and has been taking quite a beating in the last 2 weeks.
Earning will be strong but don't expect the stock to rally... lots of share to unload by former insiders...
also a lot of bashing going on in MDF yahoo message board...
maybe there are some shorts who help the recent price movement (explain the drop)
but IMOP the biggest explanation for the drop is the S-8 filing that they post last week. check it out before you purchase.... lots of stock options..
I didn't expect it to drop below $2.5 (I called for 2.5-2.8 Short term range when it's $3.34).. so I was wrong... this is bad...
keeping the faith though..
long and strong
Stan
PS: welcome aboard HWEB (on MDF)
Bob.. comments on MDF S-8 please? TIA
Stan
ITEX was my other micro cap pick.. just posted earning...
HWEB I think you are going to like this one…
It’s not as cheap as before.. but it seems that earning is now sustainable…
Low PE and very small cap.. balance sheet not too shabby….
I like the long term prospect of ITEX…
Bob. MDF recent S-8 fiilng. 7.5M options issued (900K retired) instead of 2M option... that's a lot of shares... 20%+ dilution... not even sure if that's included in the 48M shares or it will be 55M shares...
this will explain the drop as a lot of sahrehjolder are selling as I brought this S-8 filing to their attention... (now they are debating a lot of stuff about teh S-8 in yahoo mesage board. I'll just keep quiet and see what Mr Earley has to say about it)
check it out.. and tell me what you think...
I'm trying to contact Mr Earley to find out what's going on... that's a lot of dilution....
I hope it's a typo.. but very unlikely...
Very Worried Stan
You are welcome Hweb. always glad to help others make some money...
I was planning to buy 5% ownership of CTON when it's still below .20 but I didn't...
I have 3 super micro cap (below $3M market cap), and I was thinking to up the stake to 5% on one of them and I pick the wrong ones apparently... (as of today CTON is the best performer out of those 3)
I'll just cross my figner that all 3 will appreciate as earning improves.
Yeah HWE it's encouraging to see even without the tax benefit (compare to last year) they are not down by much, in fact I think the earing is really strong...
It does surprise me... TOday's price action also surprise me.. but we can see the pattern that it peak during midday then drop a bit before recoverign some ground
we'll see if the pattern stays tomorrow.
IMO .60-.70 is the right price at this moment. the PE shown is 6 but if you calculate seasonality and also assuming that they have to pay full income tax, their PE will be at 10.
I don't think they deserve PE too much above 10 right now unless they show some growth (more backlog)
but I haven't include their book value and cash position which is very nice. I wished I bought a lot more ont his one.
Oh well you can't always be perfect... any gain is good I geuss...
Congrats on your CTON gain hweb.. again I'm glad that I can help...
Stan
Thanks Hweb.. if you check the SEC filing there's 5 form 4 for CTOn today.. and all of them are aquired at .38.. I wonder if that's the quarterly benefit/salary for the directors and officers...
Any thoughts?
backlog definitely is concerning.. they are building in 3 different area/community in florida...
I don't know much about their internet/web division...
I hope the profitability is sustainable and the backlog trend start to increase again..
when I read it the first time I thought the Q4 earning includes the tax benefit.. appraently it's not including the tax benefit.. what I'm n ot sure is whether they pay full income tax right now .. my guess they aren't (but if they aren't they should mention it as that's a form of tax benefit though it's not tax credit)
I'm cautiously waiting for GEXA and MDF result... a bit nervous... they both has pulled back a lot... I'm still adding GEXA here and there.. and staying put with MDF for the long term (just like Bobwins)
Stan
MSGI I guess you are right. I use 2005 est $.61 and not the 2004 number...
I don't have TRLG.. I wish I had bought them.. I was recommended by Shmolton when it's belw $2 but I kept my MDF (while keep buying GEXA) which is not that bad at all (MDF is not that bad though not as good as TRLG return by far)...I don't lie apparel business so I choose not to buy them.. plus I don't believe when John_new and Shmolton told me that they saw a lot of people buying TRLG jeans. wearing them at the mall and a lot of the macy's or off fifth TRLG jeans was short on stock/sold out. ($200 a piece which IMO is too expensive for a pair of Jeans)
Any thoughts on GEXA... it has been my fourth largest holding now as I have been buying it slowly.. as I th ought the former president has stopped selling...
What happen to TGA btw.. I read their most recent news and I don't understand anything and why the stock drop so much today... VLO also drop a lot today before recovering abit.. Oil price is still strong... I thought TGA is profit taking .. am I right? is the news today about the drilling update and reserve update bad?
Not a good day for the market today....
Stan
CTON (PE 3) and TRLG (PE 16.5) will fly tomorrow IMO...
any thoughts on CTON earning report today?
is it sustainable?
seems nice to own a lot of CTON stock...
RZ congrats on IEHC. planning to add to 5% ownership?
How long has you hold IEHC?
Sales has been flat but it started to increase in the last 2 quarters. Profitability hasn't improve much but they stay profitable which is always nice.
Good luck on IEHC (also PYOL)
Stan
Bob that's a lot of money...
nice paper gain :)
are you selling tomorrow... together with len...
Bob. congrats on TGA. simply amazing.
I wasn't one of the believer on the oil companies. I had the chance to buy TGLEF below $1 and GUSH at $.50 (I actually bought GUSH and sell it 2 weeks afterwards as I can't udnerstand how things works). I still don't udnerstand how it works. but with te next 1 or 2 quarters of TGA earning release I will be able to understand. I have been reading 10Qs from TGA CNR XOM ASPN PYOL EGY and I'm getting to understand a bit. I'm intrigued in their ways to calculate the oil reserves.
Nonetheless.. congratulation Bob.. will be a big day tomorow for you... what price will you start selling..? do you see this run up justified...? I'm not going to buy TGA now but I'm still curious what's on your mind?
Stan
Worthy so Q4 AWRCF should be a blow out...
I read again what you said and you are right.. you mentioned about after 9/30... I hope Q4 result will be at least $2-$3M net income.. witht he help of the forex gain.
And they should end the year with at least $10M net income (hopefully).
definitely will be interesting to see what happen tuesday.
Maybe not many people know they have post the earning. volume might be low. but I really want to see what happen as people read the Q3 report. (profit down but everything else seems strong)
Stan
Worthy and mandjb. AWRCF result.
Glad to see most of their metric grow stronger (sales and gross margin etc).
I've been in AWRCF for more than 2 years and I'm still puzzld why this stock hasn't gone up higher (besides lasck of reporting updates and tranparency) based on their book value and earning performance.
I was wondering maybe it's because foreign company bear emerging risk hence more discount? or maybe the 80M in PP&E is way overstated or not depreciated corretly?
the P/sales is low P/book is low P/earning is low.. everything is low including the stock price... it just doesn't make sense...
I'm very puzzled but I'm holding long. I haven't added any since I bought 2 years ago at below $2 (I haven't sell a single sahres though.) I think the recent rally from $3 to $4 plus is triggered by you (worthylion) accumulating AWRCF. before you came along the stock was dead at below $3 :) welcome aboard worthy...
Now about the result of the Q3.. earning is nil (1 cents per share) mainly due to the bad debt expense. good that they cknowledge it now. but I hope this will be used for future bad debts and not past bad debts. $2M is only 2% of their Q3 sales. Sales increase significantly (though part of it is because copper cost increase). The fiber optic JV in China will be interesting to watch. It's been a while since they said they want to start producing those fiber optics.
Hopefully our patience on AWRCF will finally get paid off.
I personally think it will take a while before AWRCF will see $10. and I think there will be a lot of people who will sell on tuesday based on the cent earning in Q3. but as worthy said .. that would be one of the rare opportunity to accumulate more.
Stan
PS: worthy.. btw the Thai and Aussie currency depreciates against the dollar (and not appreciate). when they appreciate against the dollar early last year they got gain from forex and now they got some loss.
Hank/10 Bagger... good for you... a nice testament that value investing works... enjoy your retirement...
Stan
PS: I checked some of your website (pascesetter list etc).. very nice...
Lent.. I agree with you.. that one opinion about how the future prospect of a particular company will be often differs from other people's opinion... and that's why most of us hold/buy different stock (with some overlap).. and the list on this board stock goes as many as 100 different stocks..
But I see that most of us have similar philosphy.. we all demand reasonable valuation...
And now I also got what you said without consensus (or analyst estimate of the company growth) putting a limit at PEG ratio for criteria of the board will do nothing because all of us can subjectively estimate or make up the growth in a way that it will still fit the PEG ratio limit that the board has set.
(I did taken your statement out of context beofre)..
Having said that it's going hard to put any limit/criteria that involves uncertainty (or things that will happen on the future).
PE ratio itself is not very useful by itself as it doesn't include future performance.. but it's definitely a good start (as it means the copany makes money now)... the addition of PEG definitely helps somewhat to see where the company is heading directionally (that they will still make money in the future)...
Stan
value.. thanks for letting us know about the Anumati website... I think it's definitely useful and they are quick to load...
Do you own the website? or do you know people hwo own/operate the website? how do you find the website?
Stan
I agree with you too OTCbargain... I actually post similar things with you...
It's interesting to see that though we have some differences in the detail opinion about valuation method and stock picking.. but the general guideline and philosophy is the same...
We need to create a book on microcaps (based on this borad and people on this board collectively).. I never seen one in the market out there... Peter lynch and some other have write soemthing about small cap is good but none about microcap...I have started writing some with one of my friend... though my track record is not long enough to prove that it works... so far so good though...
I think someday the microcap will be crowded but bargain hunters like us and reduce the number of opportunit out there...
I felt we're like warren buffet back in the old days when he's business is still small...
Stan
Anumati website looks good but not a good first time experience...
I typed in MDF (metropolitan health) and this is what I got:
MDF Mediagrif Interactive Tech Inc TSE
Consumer/Non-Cyclical : Food Processing
I'll try it again later..
I wonder how often they update their data.. is this website suppoesed to be live... or just a prototype...
Lent. no need analyst. learn the business and talk to the officer/CEO ourself.... analyst aren't usually correct anyway (unless they are caliber analyst and several analyst are following the company and reach consensus. even then theya re often off too). check out ADNWE.. 2 years ago analyst target the stock to be $7 by 2004 (or $14 for their stretch target) before later on they revised to $3.5 or $4.5
I bought in at $2 and when it hits $3.50 I thought it will hit $7 so I waited and it turned out to be $1.8 now. surely things has changed since the estimate (DCS acquisition hasn't closed etc). but I learned not to rely on analyst estimate. I use it more as a guidance and directional read.. but I try to build my own opinion... Analyst... fool me once shame on you.. fool me twice shame on me... :)
I think the analyst are no better than us esimating the estimate. I don't think therea re info that the company give only to the analyst. they also look at 10Q learn the industry interview officers and ask question in earning call to fill out the blanks (in their spreadsheet)
moreover with full analyst coverage the stock is more likely to be near full valuation and have to beat analyst estimates to have some upside surprise in return.
JMHO
Stan
Bob. the board name microcap. it's kind of counterintuitive IMO to include big caps.. but I agreed on waht you said a while back.. that we don't want to exclude other opportunities that will mak us money... but I guess as long as 90% or 95% of the stocks that we talk about is microcap (microcap range for the wallstreet analyst is anything below $1B. $1-3B considered small cap $3-5B is considered mid cap and above $5B is big cap)
I personally like stocks betwween $1-$150M maarket cap (or enterprise value)
good morning everyone
Stan
Wade forgot to mention.. buy some after 1 profitable quarter and buy more when it's 2 profitable quarter...
I guess this strategy isjust similar as sell half when the stock double...
So this strategy shoudl be used in case by case basis and done after through DD.. for MDPA example maybe it's stillw ise to buy some at .06 because they have always have profitable PSN operation (which I awsn't really aware back then) I was fixated on how can they pay back those 3.4M delinquent payroll tax and turn around a 5M shareholder equity deficit... I was waiting for the dilution (I opposed borrowing but no one would lend them money anyway.. maybe some will with convertible debt)..
So again it's back on the business and how confident you are that they ahve turned around the corner and will not look back (and charge forward)...
Stan
abh3vt.. in PEG ratio use the G of geometric weighted average of growth in the next 5-8 years and not just using the next year growth (like you said if one compan y growth rate next year is 50% they might not grow 50% in the next 5 years hence it's not fair to use 50% as the G in PEG ratio.. for that reason I am always careful interpreting the PEG ratio (espeially if I heard it from other people).
it's useful to use PEG in conjuntion with next year estimte PE and forward 2 years and 3 years forward PE ratio.
also watch the revenue growth.. this will help us to distinguish a one time spike in net income or the net income growth is sustainable.
Stan
Wade you bet it's impossible to find that stocks with all the criteria that 10 bagger mentioned.. as I was reading your post I now also conclude that it's not possible to have a company like that that the price is still affordable (by our pockets).
with that kind of performance I can only come up some candidates such as EBAY YHOO GOOG (and not even AMZN).. INTC in the late 80s... DELL in the early 90s.. MSFT in the 80s and CSCO in the early 90s (which later crash 80% in the tech bubble). Even for these stocks I wasn't sure myself that they ever fit the criteria.
I started to feel that 10 bagger/hank is just kidding or in a sarcasm mode...
I am also curious to see an example of this super company.
Stan
I agree Wade. 2-3 quarters. The most important thing is actually whether you think the profitability will continue in the future or even if it can grow form that point. and of course having more than 1 consequtive profitable quarter from operation helps reduce the risk. and at the same time the longer you wait theoritically reduce your return potential.
I remember with MDPA when I waited 2 consequtive quarter I have to bought in at .30 instead of .06-.10 which makes a lot of difference (in terms of the amount of return). but as wade pointed out earlier today... buying at .06 is a lot riskier and high chance that MDPA will go bely up and give you 100% loss...
estimating the business prospect/demand in future for the company is very very important (not to the exact $ number) but the diretional of the business. for example TRCI they turn profitable for several quarters but the business they are in aren't growing very fast and competitors comes in quickly and start eatind their margin and the last 3 quarters profit has decreased though sales increase... I wonder if they will be able to maintain profitability.. hence the stock tanks from $18 to $6... similar story with NTST (though NTST continue to be profitable they have income tax and tax credit during their 100% profit growth period)
Stan
PS: Wade.. you are a night crawler lurking at past midnight (unless you are in the western time zone)
Hank.. no offense.. but IMO it's hard to find any company that fits your criteria.. and if there's one the stock price will already be expensive (in terms of PE etc)... and let alone to get another 10 bagger for that kind of stocks...
Give me 3-5 example of the stocks that you just purchase/currently hold that fits those criterias that you mentioned...
I have my own criterias and I (also some people on this board) thought it's too tight.. and yours is several times tighter than my rules
I'm curious to learn more on what kind of stocks so you get and what kind of return do you get
Thanks
Stan
Lent I notice that.. AOBO and AWRCF.. that's why I mentioned that I'm also in those stocks just like you are.. I'm just checking to see what your opinion on the recent events with AOBO such as the new director.. adn the provate placement (which is at a ridiculous low price) and they don't even have anything in mind (besides general acquisition)...
I sold a bit for some small gain (but still hold 30K shares average at $1.3) and add my GEXA at $5 with the AOBO proceed...
I wonder how can I hold a $1.3 /share stock when at the same time they are selling $.85/share to public in the private placement and with 2 warrants. 1 at $1 and .5 at $1.65... that's disgusting... never seen any PP like that.. not even at EMRI.. the PP was at market price that day...
I'm just intrigued by AOBO high gross margin and the potential to make $2M after tax each quarter.. which makes me decide to stick with my original plan which is to hold long term (2-3 years) as long as theya re still profitable... I almost sol when it goea above $1.6 plus...
I think integrity and honesty wil be a critical values/competency for thesechinese companies...
Stan
Suggestion for VM list that Lent Compiled....
I think we should monitor the progress of this VM portfolio (the list that you compiled) such as quarterly performance and annual performance starting 01-Jan-2005.
and we can see the result by individual stock.. which one is the winer and which one is a total mess... we can see the result by industry that Lent already specified ... or looking at the portfolio as a whole... I wonder if we will beat the S&P and other major indices or other small cap indices (russel 2000 or wilshire 5000?)
down the road we can add more stock but it will be interestign to see what happen if this portfolio is locke down for 1 year..
Just my 2 cents
Stan
Suggestion VM list that Lent Compiled....
I think we should monitor the progress of this VM portfolio (the list that you compiled) such as quarterly performance and annual performance starting 01-Jan-2005.
and we can see the result by individual stock.. which one is the winer and which one is a total mess... we can see the result by industry that Lent already specified ... or looking at the portfolio as a whole... I wonder if we will beat the S&P and other major indices or other small cap indices (russel 2000 or wilshire 5000?)
down the road we can add more stock but it will be interestign to see what happen if this portfolio is locke down for 1 year..
Just my 2 cents
Stan
Abv and researcher.. I read again your post about the tax issue and I agree to your posts (and it seems the message of my post is similar if not exactly the same...
we're all in the same page....
gilead.. I'm not sure what you mean by the discount should be n... are you saying that we should ignore the impact of the tax (assume they will never have to pay tax)? or we should ignore the impact of the tax benefit? (and assume if they have no tax benefit at all)
Stan is confused.
Oops. sorry Lent. I must have missed it.
Thanks for pointing that out...
I'm also holding AOBO (Are you in AOBO)?
The newest director wasn't a good person IMO... but has a lot of power.. hopefully he's not goint to cause any trouble...
I'm also in AWRCF.. not much new news... reporting every 6 months... I think they were helped by the foreign exchange gain... but cost average is $2 .. so I still have some cushion if they post weaker 6 month... Sales sees to be strong.. margin drop a bit by the increase price of copper..
Stan
I agree with your post abh3vt about the NOL...
I don't remember what GAAP rules about the ways in recognizing the NOL carryforward.
But at least we know and be careful not to miscalculate the valuation of a particular company...
I'd love to know/learn what are the different ways a company can use the NOL benefit. and whether each ways is triggered by a specific situation or a company can choose it themselves.
I know some company get 1 time tax credit for all the past NOL that they had. Some other just let nature takes it course (use it each quarter by not paying any tax but not getting any credit). while some other try to smoothen things out by start paying low (in their IS), but in their balance sheet the tax cost is deferred for the future (amortized). e.g. effective rate 6%, then 10%, then 15%.. gradually... this might be good from shareholder perspective.. less volatility in net income... but I think might not be preferred by GAAP...
Stan
abh3vt, researcher, Valuing companies with NOL the right way in my opinion, is to assume full tax (then calculate the P/E, PEG etc) no matter how long or how much the NOL expiration date and the amount of NOL carryforwards accumulated.
And instead, the NOL value should be added to the balance sheet (as asset, such as short term investment).
Enterprise value calculation will later capture this asset and lower the EV/Income or EV/FCF (which helps make the company look more attractive and not as misleading as adding the tax in income statement.)
For example MDF has about $19-$20M NOL and if I assume that MDF can benefit from all those NOL (as MDF is profitable) then I will add $7M in asset (20M times 35% tax rate) which incerase the book value to $20M (or $18 tangible book value).
Then after incorporating the tax benefit into the asset section, I will use the after tax income (even they haven't pay now) to calculate their PE and PEG. MDF is expected (by me) to make $11M for 2004 pre-tax (assuming $2.1M in Q4), Then 2004 after tax earning will be $7.15M, and with current market cap of $139M, their after tax PE is 19. This is the number that I think investor should focus on. (because this is more reppresentative of what the company operation under normal circumstanced will be). Look at MSTR.. are they cheap with PE of 7?
It is imperative to taken non-paying-tax-benefit out of the equation/valuation the tax will one day be paid assuming the company make money).(People unconsiciously miscalculate/wrongly value the company by ignoring the tax because they think not have to pay for some time equal to not having to pay forever)
Or they think to overcome the 35% hurdle rate when the tax hits is easy. Do people know how hard it is to grow business (revenue and profit) by 35%
Hence, my conclusion, MDF at this moment is rightly valued... (PE of 19 not bad at all IMO)
I'm still long on MDF
BTW, I picked up 20,000 more share of EMRI at .60 because I found out from their 10Q that they have $15M+ NOL which is an instant $5M in asset (future income). At that time their market cap is only $15M. Now I think it's also fully valued.
The moral of the story is that we can take advantage of the NOL situation (either by buying the stock when no one know about those hidden asset, i.e. future NOL benefit or selling the stock when it gets overheated.) My Objective with MDF is very long term investment so I'm trying to educate current shareholder and new investor about the current situation for MDF and hopefully they understand and have the right expectation.
Stan
Len, how about PYTM and CTON? Super Low PE VM? I mentioned about this 2 stocks a couple months ago...
I didn't haveany of this stock but have been following for several months now since I found it on my screener....
Both look cheap (but for a reason)
PYTM due to their negative book value (probably will be a going concern issue if they stop becoming profitable just 1 or 2 quarter) as debt might be hard to be extended/paid back.
Cash position has increase nicely in the last 4 quarters though. we could buy the whole company if we want to I guess...
CTON, someone said their business (home building) might be on a bubble or slump.
Over $750K in earning the last 4 quarters. Cash position $2M plus... with no debt I believe... P/Book = 1.3
sales increase the last 2 quarters.
Any thoughts folks.... on PYTM and CTON... do you think their business model is sustainable (and profit will be sustainable?) the valuation sees cheap but that totally depends on their business...
These 2 stocks could be a good pump and dump candidate (just like EGR) as it has great story (either good PE ratio or good balance sheet for the other one) but I don't do Pumo and Dump. (I haven't even buy the stock yet)
Stan
EGR undervalued? 52M cash, 0 debt, 72M equity, 200M annual sales, revenue stabilize, GEXA type industry. 400K profit if excluding $1.4M settlement cost.
I found it last night as they (EGR) were acquiring some asset of some company (ACN). it was also mentioned in GEXA and NTST board by xlr8
I haven't bought it yet nor switching my GEXA shares to EGR, but from balance sheet purpose it does look way undervalued.
I want to research it more deeper before jumping in.
Maybe it's cheap because it's not GAAP profitable. (they lost $1M last quarter) but if oyu took out $1.4M lawsuit cost, they should have net income for $400K which is not bad at all for a company having enterprise value only about $10M (or maybe even less)
Let me know what you think about EGR. I wished I had money to buy it. It started to go up today and making the AMEX top gainer list. I think tomorrow trading for EGR will be interesting.
I'm still bullish on GEXA though GEXA balance sheet is nothing compare to EGR balance sheet.
My posting quota limit has reached for today. I will respond to some of your inquiry (if any) tomorrow
Good day gentlemen....
Stan
Go MDF.....!!!!
Bob, CNU also have one time item of $500K gain on debt extinguishment and also revenue increase (as you also mentioned)
Here's what I post in the MDF board (the content very similar to what you posted earlier)
--------------------
Q: the question was will MDF Q4 performance similar to CNU which just post strong Q4
If I rephrase the question: If CNU net income increase $1M sequentially (from $1.5M to $2.5M which is up 66%, will MDF have strong Q4 too. either increase about $1M or probably even the same proportion (66% sequential net income growth) for MDPA Q404
A: CNU net income gain of $1M is because CNU has a non-recurring (and nor operational) gain on extinguishment of debt for $500K.
And their Q4 revenue increase by $736K sequentially.
Though these 2 items above don’t explain all the $1M net income increase (as not all revenue increase goes to profit), therefore I conclude some of the net income increase must be contributed by lower claims and/or direct medical cost. (I’m lazy to pull this number from their Q3 and Q4 10Q and calculate the percentage to confirm this statement).
It’s definitely a phenomenal occurrence in my opinion (to have the direct medical cost as a percentage of revenue flat, let alone drop in Q4).
I do hope MDF Q4 has similar trend with CNU Q4. But I wouldn’t bank on it yet though. The company told me that’s how their business is (cyclical where Q4 and Q1 are generally weaker. Weaker means direct medical cost % of sales is higher compare to the non-weaker quarter) and right now there’s not enough conclusive evidence that I should think otherwise. (CNU is not MDF)
If MDF make $1M more ($4.6M), than what they make in Q3, just like CNU net income increase, then I will be ecstatic and you can verbally slam/trash me anyway you want (because I was wrong for predicting Q4 as weaker quarter compare to Q2 and Q3). :)
In my opinion MDF Q404 bottom line will still be lower than their Q304 bottom line :)
Long and strong…