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oh, and i'll add: short interest is not near record highs everywhere among the semi's. compare, say, pmcs (10%) with pmcs 6 months ago (20%) with amcc (1%). there *are* differences. like pmcs at 6x sales with 1.4 debt/equity, while amcc - with virtually the same products - at somewhere about 16x sales *but* selling at nearly 80% cash and 80% book. all pigs are not created equal, after all.
"Ok answer me this....we went from 5100 to our current reading of 1500 yet the short interest on the comp is at/near record highs. People keep wondering why the semi's won't fall yet when you check out the levels of short interest in that sector they are at/near all time record levels."
well, (teddy) bear that i am, i'd say that from my perspective its the stubbornness or misplaced hope of bulls, who have refused to capitulate ...
you seem to think differently.
i guess this is how japan ends up where it is 20 years later, where buffett can still hardly find any value. but then, he's looking for an investment, and you're talking about trading ...
"There are simply too many shorts in this market to keep it down ..."
but isn't this pretty naive? i mean, the higher the market is pushed, the more shorts are going to pile on, because things just get more and more wildly overvalued. so yah, shorts are squeezed out, but its a little doSiDo before everyone does an allemand left ...
the only exception would seem to be something like the Great Bubble, where "everyone" was bullish and shorts continually got roasted. however, lightning strikes twice and all that stuff ...
well that wasn't what i would've expected for a breakout. so is this just a pause before cisco/fed, or do you guys expect selling to intensify tomorrow?
but does it make sense to rally strongly into a fed meeting? long ago, don sew used to say that the markets would generally be midrange/upper midrange going into the fed.
okay, well i was just referring to the bloomberg story by memory. but actually, it says: the lowest since 1995
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aRRS3OZ1Kjrs&refer=home
re insider buying
no, the statistic was that insider buying in april dropped to levels lower than seen since sometime like 1998 ..
what's wrong with a bull trap?
> After talking with both companies over the weekend, the bottom
> line on speed is that they are quick to tell me they can
> provide speeds "up to" 1500kbs but they are not willing to talk
> about "down to" some floor beneath which it will not fall.
since this is location dependent, you might talk to others that live near you. better, if you can get hold of one of their technical people (true technical people) they can probably give you better information.
at home we had pacbell (now sbc) dsl since about '99 (and fortunately, got a static ip address back then, which we still have, so no pppoe for me :). but there *are* knowledgeable people there, if you can get to them. for me, since i'm on linux, i can usually bypass the know-nothing types, since nothing they have in their prepared dialogs is applicable to me. but its a coin toss: sometimes i'll be sent off to a knowledgeable techie who actually knows what 'traceroute' is, for example, without looking it up; and other times i'll be sent off to some phone bank in india or somewhere ....
thanks ...
don sew
dang, i've lost my marketswing password. did anyone see what don sew posted friday night?
oh i just gave a sampling. briefing.com on friday was full of notices "X hits 52 week high on N times average volume", for a number of these midgets.
i would add to those indicators, the apparent blowoff in the under-$1, soon-to-be-dilisted, old-time momentum stocks, like avnx (up 36% on huge volume), vert (up over 30% on huge volume), etc.
> There should be some individual stock indicators that if they
> are lagging in the rising tide scenario, they might be the ones
> to begin to fall first and hardest when, not if, things reverse
> even in a modest way.
well, there are some examples among the stocks i've been shorting during this rise - ones that haven't caused me too much pain :) for example:
kopn, and in general, many stocks that are connected to wireless. (swks, for example, although swks did succumb thursday and friday to a 20% rise. but then, so did vert ...)
some of the lesser semi eq companies: ones with very poor fundamentals: klic, brks. this in spite of huge short interest on both.
in other cases, the short interest seemed to play into the rise significantly. i seriously can't figure out what's up with pmcs, but it has outperformed brcm, e.g., for no apparent reason ...
> caught 3 of 7 in her department
is that some sort of borg designation? :-P
sorry, couldn't resist.
re uspix: they use options etc to achieve their results and, as you're seeing, the correlation with the index drifts considerably over time. this is why its generally said that you can't use uspix as a long term hold. its pretty much for shorter term swing trading ...
> ya your woodie is better than mine -g- the only thing that
> gives some (maybe little) credence to the sunw woodie as a
> general market barometer, is that the volume of shares traded
> and it's on the most active list most of the time (of course
> wcom was there too
well, there *was* that buyout rumor on friday for sunw. though my woodies (i'd add to that not just avnx
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=avnx,uu[m,a]daclyiay[dd][p][vc60]&pref=G
but lots of "single digit midgets", like vert
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vert,uu[m,a]daclyiay[dd][p][vc60]&pref=G
and akam, if you step back a week or two,
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=akam,uu[m,a]daclyiay[dd][p][vc60]&pref=G
then, at least in the past, those spikes haven't been sustainable breakouts, but topping signs. "flight to crap", as i used to say. now this time, at least akam has been hovering up there after its breakout, so who knows ...
that's nothing. look at avnx :-P
on a not unrelated note, shaeffer has some interesting technical and sentiment observations:
rydex:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/printout.asp?ID=7620
rsi breakout of regression channel:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/printout.asp?ID=7621
> and the running of the crap near the top - etc.
reading here about new highs and running of the crap, brought these daily messages (from briefing.com) to mind. from today:
AVNX Avanex -- Volume Breakout (1.00 +0.14)
DCLK DoubleClick makes run at 52-wk high (9.10 +0.51)
Volume Alert: VerticalNet rises 30% on 8x avg volume (1.45 +0.34)
GlobeSpan Virata breaks out to new 52-wk high (6.53 +0.35)
Juniper Networks rallies to new 52-wk high (10.89 +0.69)
and my own favorites: akam is up to 2.50, and swks was up 10% today ...
well, that's what is confusing about it, to me at least, since stock funds saw net redemptions. so where's that $46B going? pay taxes? :-P
whoa. anyone have insight on this? (particularly: where did all that money from money market funds go to? and why are stocks rallying in the face of net redemptions?)
13:32 ET Fund Flows
Equity mutual funds reported net cash outflows of a modest $796mln for the week ended Wednesday, April 30. Most domestic and international sectors reported redemptions. Taxable bond funds continue to be the big winners with high yield really raking it in ($1.1bln to HY). International, global and emerging market debt funds all reported inflows for the fifth consecutive week. Government/mortgage funds reported net outflows. And finally, money market funds were hit with net redemptions totaling $46.6bln and municipal bond funds had net inflows of $330mln.
dunno but am i not seeing the trin at 1.35 and rising?
"No, Jimmy Hoffa found"
where? in a baghdad prison?
me :) well, i shorted yesterday and am holding. (and went into urpix.)
"What is the argument against a company just buying stock outright ..."
the accounting would be much worse than what they're fighting right now. unless you get the recipient to pony up and pay for the stock initially. but then, its not really much of a perq ...
> Art C. was talking about this on CNBC. He sounded very
> convinced that the hedge fund boys were manipulating the recent
> market rally.
well, take a look at pmcs chart and decide :-P
or my favorite, kopn. (and that one wasn't an earnings miss ... in line, guide higher ...)
isn't http://www.petitiononline.com the "best" place for something like that?
re qcom weak
seems like wireless in general (?). swks, kopn ...
ot rhat
i beat ya. sold at 275, and bought on day of ipo (market) @42-45.
sigh, those were the days. when i could be blindly boolish ...
oops. i changed that reply. you said bby and i read bbby ...
Ooops. I was thinking BBBY ...
"Oh come on, the majority of posters on this board are perma-bears."
yah, but we're in a bear market, and this board is younger than that bear ...
re "parabolic stops"
did you explain this before? what does this mean? (with these high beta stocks i usually just have "conservative stops" ... or is that "liberal"? whichever one means i lose the most money if i'm wrong ...)
"I shorted KLAC ..."
that's how things work in cloudcuckooland ... even brks is holding up after that really nasty report/miss last night ...
LG seems to agree with you. (actually, it appears he thinks today may have been it ...)
> Who is going to short market in the face of decent top line
> even if bottom line growth leaves us high priced.
me :) selectively. kopn, klic report tomorrow. (and short both, from well above here.)
> Chart looks inviting.
... said the spider to the fly ...
OT Avenue A Inc = http://www.aquantive.com/redirect.asp