is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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I found a stock where trying to pick a "bottom" on indicators or picking highs and lows would have branded you a "loser". This particular stock exhibits a general downward trend, that is unabated by the RSI, MFI or any other indicator. There are a couple of points where the indicators bottom out. The stock remains level and then continues down. What is really interesting about this one is that the MFI and RSI yield a different curve and have different bottoms. Since they are mathematically similar, you would think they would have a matching curve... interesting. Only the spinglefluke formation is more compelling.
I have found it next to impossible to successfully pick highs and lows based on indicators. What is more important is the general trend. EGMI is a winner (in on a dip at $1.10)... to question decisions you made or did not make in the past based on the chart is unnecessarily beating yourself up.
I can't see this rally continuing for this stock. Just because a company is not going to go bankrupt and improves it's liquidity, pays off debt, or delays the inevitable does not mean that it is going to be making money anytime soon, which is what counts.
To tell you the truth, I can't see why this runup is happening. I see no real reason why this company is going to be profitable anytime soon to justify this price. I rent movies like anybody else and would like to see them succeed. Just telling it like it is.
Comments?
yes you are generally right. When I decide to buy a stock, the last thing I do in the decision process is to check out the indicators, and the RSI is a good one. I have taken to using Money Flow of late.
The point I was making is... the movement in the indicator rarely if ever precedes the movement in the stock price itself. Hence, as a predictor it is practically useless. What looks like a good smooth chart when looking back was not a good smooth chart at that time. More likely a jagged upward or downward spike.
The other reality is that all of these indicators are based on data smoothing. Therefore, they represent the previous two month periods of data. Therefore, if a stock levels out, the indicator will level out to neutrality as well. This erodes it's value in picking "high" and "low" points. I tried to find a good example of a stock that exhibited this but was unsuccessful. I was looking for a stock that had a general downward trend with buying points indicated by the RSI. In fact, these supposed buy signals were merely points at which the stock levelled out for a time, giving the indicator a chance to indicate neutrality and perhaps a buying opportunity, when in fact the general trend is downwards.
Oops... wait a minute, I must link this to EGMI.
GO EGMI GO
In the case of EGMI I as going to compare it to another stock... UWKI. UWKI had a downward trend for years, which I followed closely. In fact, I was on that board like a rat on cheese. The MFI was instrumental in predicting the demise of this lowly turd.
So, let's see... in comparing EGMI to UWKI... "U" is like.. 20 characters away from "E". "G" is about the same number of characters away from "W".. is there a pattern there?
I am going to go to Stonehenge to think about it. Then it is off to the pyramids. If that fails, I may simply go and ask Tom Hanks. I hear he is on a deserted island somewhere though.. lol... no one knows where he is..
yes you are generally right. When I decide to buy a stock, the last thing I do in the decision process is to check out the indicators, and the RSI is a good one. I have taken to using Money Flow of late.
The point I was making is... the movement in the indicator rarely if ever precedes the movement in the stock price itself. Hence, as a predictor it is practically useless. What looks like a good smooth chart when looking back was not a good smooth chart at that time. More likely a jagged upward or downward spike.
The other reality is that all of these indicators are based on data smoothing. Therefore, they represent the previous two month periods of data. Therefore, if a stock levels out, the indicator will level out to neutrality as well. This erodes it's value in picking "high" and "low" points. I tried to find a good example of a stock that exhibited this but was unsuccessful. I was looking for a stock that had a general downward trend with buying points indicated by the RSI. In fact, these supposed buy signals were merely points at which the stock levelled out for a time, giving the indicator a chance to indicate neutrality and perhaps a buying opportunity, when in fact the general trend is downwards.
Oops... wait a minute, I must link this to EGMI.
GO EGMI GO
In the case of EGMI I as going to compare it to another stock... UWKI. UWKI had a downward trend for years, which I followed closely. In fact, I was on that board like a rat on cheese. The MFI was instrumental in predicting the demise of this lowly turd.
So, let's see... in comparing EGMI to UWKI... "U" is like.. 20 characters away from "E". "G" is about the same number of characters away from "W".. is there a pattern there?
I am going to go to Stonehenge to think about it. Then it is off to the pyramids. If that fails, I may simply go and ask Tom Hanks. I hear he is on a deserted island somewhere though.. lol... no one knows where he is..
I got 100 shares man. i am in big.. lol... don't mess with me.
Further to my point, peruse this:
This chart tells you diddly squat. The MFI and RSI are moving in exactly the same time frame as the stock itself, hence are telling you nothing and are not predictive in nature.
You might think the MACD is telling you something in advance of movement, but it is not. Because of the wonders of data smoothing, what appears to be a nice smooth predictive curve about historical price movements did not exist at those times. What is now a smooth curve was a jagged upward/downward spike.
What does the MACD tell you now? Nothing. It says the stock has gone up. We know that. Nothing new.
go EGMI go.
I must add my .02.I may not be as experienced as some of the people on here, but I do have an approach I believe in that incorporates charting. I do the following for Canadian stocks:
- come up with a list using a stock screening tool (www.globeinvestor.com) primarily based on earnings growth criteria (the most important factor) in my chosen sector (high technology). Spent about 15 years in the field. I get a list of about 30 stocks.
- I then apply charting to narrow it down. I keep it simple. These books that profess that you can make big bucks using indicators and the like are hogwash. Basically, I look for a stable, upward chart. If the chart is not stable with plenty of volume, stay away. Downward is bad. It is as simple as that. Other than that.. there are some shapes.. ">" stab patterns, etc. But looking at any indicator like the RSI and predicting stock movement is ridiculous.
- then I look at the company and ask if they have an idea or business model that grabs my attention. This is qualitative and utilizes my experience.
After all of that, only a couple remain. This is actually pretty good filtering and qualification. There are a couple of loose rules I follow when I go to buy. Seasonality, and I usually wait until they are close to profitable. I find until that point it will continue to fall. There are exceptions (TWB?). Then again, I don't do retail. I think alot of people do the third step first and get all confused and overwhelmed. There are lots of good ideas out there. Until they show some good numbers, walk away.
If the stock has a good chart... I may then use TA to determine the time to buy. After all of that, that is the only role something like the RSI plays. Even the mighty spinglefluke.
My last search yielded ROI. (Venture Exchange - Route1 inc.) and DDY.V (Venture - Decision Dynamics).
I definitely see a spinglefluke formation...
well... seems to me they are going broke and need financing... at first glance. not a very good report... I have a very, very , very small number of shares of this POS.
nothing wrong with taking profits, and especially in these dynamic times with this stock. I think this one is an excellent one for playing the ups and downs... if you have the emotional intelligence and patience. I am surprised by this downturn, but my caution is paying off, as I can now play the earnings report better. I would suspect it could take a nice 30% jump on earnings. There is no reason why the earnings report will not report at least .02, which should propel it over .40 or .50 no problem. The current price is unexplainable.
Well, I can't really see a reason for the drop today. Anybody know anything different? I can't see as the press release has anything to do with it. It is not negative. Last time it did this it was a buying opp. Anyway, I can only guess it is profit-taking on a shitty day in the market.
The repeat of the going international theme is not a bad thing in my view. Software companies release new products constantly. They have very short life cycles. So to do a press release like this is not bad at all.
Big drop today though.
from my current trading site... current P/E is 17.x (just reading from the summary page). At .02/sh for the qtr, .08 on the year. at a P/E of 20:1 (growth stock in a lousy market at a bad time of the season) gives a reasonable price of... $1.50? Over a buck anyway...
am I in the ball park or should I go to the minors?
I got in when told about this stock a week ago. As a former software person, this stock has what I look for, and that is rare.
basically:
- most software companies have a fundamental problem in that most software must be customized the a particular client. It is very difficult to find a company that has a true "product", like something that ships with Windows unaltered on every pC shipped. As an example, check out Absolute Software (ABT, TSX Exchange, canada). There is a product company that jumped on the back of the PC makers and set a de facto standard for security. Check out the chart.
- This seems similar to that, in that it has a product that is simple and not customized, and has a ready market (lots of unemployed would-be entrepreneurs)- Add to this the simple fact that a business model like this (product-oriented) implies that costs are low. Custom programming is expensive and complicated to manage. We can see that in the operating results.
The challenge now is, it is wise to go for more? I am always nervous continuing to buy when something starts running up. Looking at ABT, I got in at 5.50 on the previous runup from 2006-2007. Could have gotten in earlier. Sold at 19, 26, and 38. Could have held on. Is there logic to the chart for ABT over that time period? not really... what will this do? Who knows..
intersting questions.. gotta get back to work.
well I think today's action proves my point. Not a very solid performance. If people were speculating, it would have been really hard to make money, given the volumes over the last couple of days. More likely people buying for the LT and lots of sell orders in place... if you bought low (.015) you would have had to already have an order in place to sell at .03 to take advantage of yesterday's action. Believers got in.. those that wanted out got out.. barbed wire and all.
Well I think so.. and quite frankly there is no other explanation. This buying spree started yesterday. Makes sense, since APTD is an extremely cheap, if risky financial stock.
Wait until it goes down again... and then wait for another good financial services earnings report.. they are sure to come.
Just my .02. lol.. EOM
reason has got to be the Goldman news. There is no news regarding APTD specifically? Well, that bodes well for the stock. I kept a minimal amount of this.. anyway what that means to me is that this will go up again as financial stocks recover over the next year. This shows it is not dead yet...
I was thinking of buying again. Will let it settle, try for .02.
IMO when the spread gets like this it is indicative of an imminent fall, especially when on the Pink Sheets. I think this stock may be an excellent recovery story, but I feel that we are in a downward seasonal market slide, which will be tough on stocks like this (on the pink Sheets). I would look to pick this thing up really cheap in the Sept - Oct time frame...
I have never used Twitter. Can I use it to tell uWink that they suck?
this is a very weird chart. every time you think it is going to pop back up.. it goes back down again....
I think I still screwed it up.
ok.
1000 times.012 = $12.
200 times $12 = $240.
OK, well I hope he had some kind of package deal on his trades... because if he tries to get out at .02, he makes a whopping ...
$260. !!!
NO. $160. that is right. got it.
I think the key strategic advantage this company is missing is having Nancy Duitch manning the booth at trade shows... or maybe they do. If that is the case, how can they not be successful? If that is not her bag, they should hire Belinda Stronach.
American Bulls says "WAIT"!! a white spinning top has formed...
was that you today Netman? adding to your treasure trove of uWink shares? what is your plan... buy low at .012 and get that tax loss. cash by selling at .02? I recommended that back at .50/ .70.! Hope it works!!!!!
Not with the current price of gas at the pump. normally I would say that it is tennis/ beer seasons, but I am sans any kind of influence at present. Did I f___ it up?
let's see...
2 and 5 0's, carry the two... long division, I hate that..
same as 200 times 120.. 100 times 120 = 1200/// therefore//
200 times 120 = $2400!
OK, so I am out by one order of magnitude.. so what?
Tell you what why don't you make some kind of useful comment on the trading activity today.? What are you an actuary or something?
doh~! I knew it had something to do with that...
well.. looking at the spread today... and no volume, I have a feeling this thing is headed down. Just IMO, but pinksheet stock... not reporting? (or so I read). some joker that owns 10% of the outstanding shares selling..
I will wait until it goes to .05.
ok. I will start. why no volume today? am I missing something? don't get started...
interesting trading action today... 200k at .012 or something, then small volume up to .02 the rest of the day. So somebody bought a load low and now has to unload it for profit..
volume = 200k x .012 = $24k rotsa ruck..
we should be able to see how he does over the next little while..
what about Stop Loss with a Limit.
hate to say this, but that is not quite true. There is a strong downward trend over the last couple of years. Given that they have some financial/reporting problems... my real question is is this the right time? Or should one wait? Banks are supposed to start lending again at the end of '09, so should one buy now at the seemingly cheap price of .10? or should they wait until the fall tax loss selling season?
will it go lower? That is the question...
and I don't think it would apply. Now, "I am unemployed... and want to sell for tax reasons".. maybe.. which brings to mind... do people think there will be a substantial tax loss selling season this year and will that impact VBDG?
No. That is my line.
yes, but his explanation does sound a bit fishy don't you think?
two things: if Jeff knows something about the future of this company he would not tell you. Funny, I have not heard John Roth say anything about Nortel... he just quietly sold his shares at 3.50 that one time.. years ago. He can't tell you. So he may come up with a reason why he is selling. If he is a businessman he will do what is right from a business standpoint. If he honestly thought the shares would go up he would hold..
secondly... CEOs regularly miss out on their projections when it comes to reporting, etc.....
Lastly, Nancy is still VERY HOT.
thanks!!
why bother getting out now? unles they go bankrput or something... it has nowhere to go but up...
what do you mean by this "second announcement via the C.C."? forgive my ignorance...
Get a load of this. Shareholder class action lawsuit? Seems as if some people feel the price was a bit low and since the principles got jobs in the new company, it looks a bit suspicious...
http://howardsmithlaw.com/TakeoverCases/TweenBrands.html
This was a tongue-in-cheek comment. Anyway.. this stock did seem to defy the numbers a bit, but then I am not really a retail guy, so I just don't understand the stock dynamics. Stocks do weird things, and those are the most profitable. Like AZD, another stock I follow went from .04 to .35. I still do not really understand why. They make hybrid drivetrains for trucks. Neat little company with horrible financials. So what do you do, wait until it goes down to .04 again..? lol..
I have seen stocks go up on takeover rumors.. possibly that was what happened with AZD.