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"Now when a stock breaks out like brcm did today ..."
well, if that's the case, then you should be jumping all over brks, which did that twice ...
though, no follow through ...
"Here are two examples (BRCD, CA) of huge disparity between GAAP and Proforma greatly skewing current PEs and showing how overvalued these stocks really are."
plus, for brcd, a huge writeoff on in process r&d (rhapsody?)
i'm utterly baffled
i sit here watching the TNX tanking and the TYX hitting new lows and can't figure out how the market is staying "up" (i.e. not in major crash mode) ...
re vtss, amcc
perhaps. i don't see a whole lot of consistency in these 8% jams on various stocks. just that it happens and, if possible, is proked by some news. but e.g. they did this twice to brks over the last couple days without participation from other semi eq co's ...
vtss, pmcs and so forth seem to be riding on a jnpr upgrade ... or so it seems ...
> all those cars and trucks are sitting on car lots gathering
> cobwebs
alot of new cars on the road in los angeles though (based on the "no license plate" metric). trough here seems to have been around feb. but then, it might just reflect the health of the defense industry around here ...
> Schaeffer ...
don't you have that backwards? i thought he previously projected a bullish outlook until mid-may?
> in Asia and Africa the selection of broadcast radio is much
> smaller than here ...
but the cost of cd's in asia is significantly lower. why subscribe when you can pilfer ....
> Is the market for this as big in Europe anyway? 1.) ... 2.) ... 3.)
add to that (for europe): they don't have the same lack of choice on their radios that we do in the u.s. clearstation has pretty much limited the variety we get on fm in the u.s., which is precisely why people seek out these alternatives.
on the other hand, you still need to contend with mp3's and other digital recording formats. there are lots of head units that will play mp3 cd's (which should pretty much kill the auto cd-changer market eventually) and the promise of bluetooth, although much belated, is coming (e.g. its supposed to be available shortly for some recent bmw's). that should make using an ipod or equivalent alot easier in a car (through car audio system). although, if you're not in a city right now, there are short range fm transmitters that work adequately.
gone fishing. be back friday.
"And with the shorts betting against it, the market might go farther than we expect."
just don't u guys go taking profits all at once, okay?
Logan's Run. though "Soylent Green" might also work :-P yum
">>hmm. but shouldn't we expect boomers to live longer? <<
"Yes but they will be selling off excess property and downsizing all through retirement. [...]"
i see. so the solution would be to kill 'em all off quickly then ...
"The generation after the boomers is only 70 mil. 70 mil chasing after the real property assets of 80 mil. Big supply, smaller demand = lower prices."
hmm. but shouldn't we expect boomers to live longer?
> What do you think the heavy buying of index options (I assume
> you're including QQQ's? and SPY's?) by the "big money" means?
i second that question. :-P
earlier in the week, on an a.m. when the p/c ratio spiked to ~1.5 (or maybe 1.44), a big chunk of that was two large blocks of qqq 24 jun or jul puts.
> SARS is for instance more benign than AIDS
hmm. this seems like apples and oranges here.
aids is hard to acquire, but when you do have the virus, you usually won't know it for a long period of time and can infect many people. the death rate within the first months of infection is pretty low, but the overall cost of caring for a patient over the lifetime of the illness can be high.
sars is as easy to catch and spread as a cold. while maybe the economic impact on the healthcare system is higher for aids, over a long period of time, the cost of stamping out an epidemic is different in both cases: the behaviorial changes you need to prevent spread of aids (intimate contact) don't have the same impact on an economy as large scale quarantine, closing of schools and plants, and general fear of casual contact.
"She refinanced the one she bought in 1989 (never refinanced it all this time) [...]"
why is that *not* a smart thing to do? refinancing isn't free and every time you do it you start the clock back at 15-, 30- however many years. plus, the interest you're paying is amortized over the life of the loan. my sister just refinanced recently (first bought in '98), and then the only way the numbers actually made sense were to go from a 30-yr to 15-yr. otherwise, its just lowering the payments, but losing everything (already paid mostly to interest) and tacking on an additional 5 years ....
"Same song, same logic, and I expect the same results - wrong."
what's "remarkable" - well, not really remarkable, since its so commonplace - is the utter lack of journalism in the financial media.
its not logic. there's no logic involved.
> President Paul Otellini [...] expects a recovery in the
> semiconductor industry this year.
>
> "The past year has been so bad that the semiconductor sector
> can only improve this year," he added.
whoa! bullish!
"it's almost as if some folks *want* this thing to be a real problem."
yah, i hate puppy dogs and sunny days too. grrr.
> edit there are 2,500,000,000 chinese. there are 4000 chinese
> with sars. there are 140 sars deaths
>
> that is like 16000000 to one. that is 1/1000 of your chance of
> dying by outboard motor in the united states
there are 281,421,906 people in the u.s. about 3000 died in terrorist acts during the last 3 years. tiny blip on the radar?
how much disruption was caused by one sniper in d.c. last year?
the economic impact doesn't come just from those who are infected and die. its also the fear of contracting it, and the measures taken to prevent spread, by individuals and by the gov.
> shorts keep calling tops and reshorting up higher, trying to
> catch THE high.
laff. well i'm "a short" and i don't do that. in general, i find something i understand, wait for a good price, and sell it. my "short and hold" positions in this rally are doing pretty well, actually. klic and brks have only participated briefly, and give up their gains easily. kopn has come over 33% off its high, and i've covered 2/3 of my position there. (also covered and reshorted some brks.) pursuing pmcs is hard; but its fun :) reminds me of extr from this time last year. and in spite of everyone yelling at me not to buck the trend on that one, i rode it down from 11.85 ...
anyway, i just do what i understand and what works for me. and for me, that means *not* playing the wiggles in the charts, but riding longer term trends. but really, i'm not gonna go chasing nvda just cuz everyone else is. i did that in 1999, and it was fun and i was naive and stoopidly made a good bit of money. and fortunately, i happened on LG's board back on SI in the spring of 2000, and that scared me and saved me alot of money.
"Sure, some stocks are overvalued, but the shorts are the ones making them float up there. If they expended as much energy trying to find something of value last year and buying it, they'd be in a lot better shape than they are in now, which is hoping to get back to even."
laff. my portfolio doesn't have a high-water mark. it has a moving average.
"Lots of stocks have been rising on lower volume."
well, anecdotally: even though i'd been telling them to sell everything since summer 2000, it was only last week that both my brother-in-law and mom actually did so. (although for my mom, it was more the case that her "financial advisor" was laid off, and that spooked her. i sent her off to him at LEAST 5 times over the last 3 years to take money out of stocks, and he continually talked her into holding them. trimtabs showed net redemptions this week also, through the 7th ....
"Tech I couldnt agree more. Browsing the threads I see this common theme. I guess after 3 years of a bear market its natural to feel that the masses are conditioned to short every move up."
odd. prudentbear is dead, as in most of these rallies ...
oh okay. but i'm not a trader, i'm a student :-P
"and stop thinking so hard about the whys and wherefores"
not all of us are traders of that sort, ya know. me, if i don't understand it, i won't go near it.
"I take Tuesday mornings off most of the time...FWIW.Wednesday has a high probability of being a turn day (high means more than 50%, but it is a personal observation without back testing), so I prefer to have "full attention" on Wednesday."
hmm. the king report generally tends to talk about "turnaround tuesdays" ...
> They continue to have a very low crime rate, there are no riots,
> they have strong family values, decent health care, good
> education, they enjoy culture, people sleep at night.
however, japanese companies tend to take better care of their employees during hard times than american companies do.
gee, its great to see you back in action ... like the old dayz :-P
"Looking at the 5 year treasury action it looks like the buyers don't think much of anything about some stink'in recovery near term."
although, itsn't this the kind of action that "they" would want on bonds, with big bond sales coming in this week? um, huge actually.
OT "There are plenty ways that song writers and performance artists can make a living, such as charging fees for live concerts."
actually, its my understanding that that's about the only way that MOST artists DO make money.
"What does 55% Investors Intelligence bulls do for you?"
confirms that "investors' intelligence", like "military intelligence", is oxymoronic?
OT: "No, I am talking about something much larger, more powerful, and more sophisticated than phatbox. A computer capable of storing hundreds of CD's with complete encoding data, and capable of sending an audiophile quality signal to your pre-amp."
ah, i think i see what you mean now. as i understand it, its the rights issue that is holding things up. specifically, how you secure the "wires", so that a high quality digital signal can't be siphoned off.
"We'll see what iTunes use, if anything."
well, on the mac they're already locked so they can only be read by the standard browser on an acceptable machine, and the only way to "copy" them is as uncompressed audio (with or without degradation, i'm not sure). i can't believe that the riaa would allow aapl to distribute unprotected digital copies ... that would be a real policy reversal for them.
"I am surprised that such a computer system is not offered already."
its not? what about phatbox, for example. and that's for your car ...
true, we're talking mp3 here. but you encode with minimal loss, if you have enough space ...
http://www.phatnoise.com/
okay okay. before my time :) cassettes are old stuff to me ...
vinyl!
wow, the world has changed. i don't even know anyone with a record player :( odd but i bought a copy of the limited release of guns 'n' roses very first record (vinyl, 10k copies) 4 years ago - as a investment - and still have never heard it :-P
"Add the user-friendly interface that Apple is good at, and you've got a service that I'm sure many people will indeed pay for."
you guys really have to do what zeev did: ask your kids, or - failing that - check the discussions on slashdot.org. yes, separating out individual songs is important to buyers. but the key point that you're all missing is that all of these services will also take extraoardinary means to prevent you from sharing the digital music with others - as silly as that is. (silly, because *someone* will always rip it, even if they have to siphon off the audio to do it.) the rights management software, in general, means you can do LESS with this music (you're resticted to where you can use it) and will prevent even the kinds of sharing that you're currently allowed to do with cd's (i.e. like lend it to a friend).
what's missing from the music industry is market forces: the price of any *particular* cd or song by band X is pretty much unrelated to the cost of producing and marketing that cd or song, or to the market demand for it.
"Let's review at the end of the year when the Windows version hits the streets."
but that's a whole 'nother beast. it all works on apple machines because of the security that they provide. you pretty much can't read it with any other device: you listen on your mac, or you download it to an ipod. that's about it. though, if you're willing to put in the extra effort, you can burn it to an AUDIO cd (only), and then rip an mp3 from that cd, although i'm not sure whether they "degrade" it in the process. nevertheless, apple's built a closed system - or as closed as cds are - which prevents people from exchanging their digital music (again, to the extent that cd's do).
on windows, you don't YET have what's needed (palladium and the digital rights management kernel) to be able to do that. so i have no idea what plans they'd have in extending to windows, if any. but i'm pretty sure that nobody is going to pay $1/song if you can listen to the music only on your pc. apple's pretty much cutting it close as they are, since their apps don't give a direct means to export an mp3 to a cd.
if its any comfort, i've been in urpix since friday close ...
"3)Th 3rd year of a Presidential term.Very Bullish by history."
hmm. wasn't 1931 a 3rd year?