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TA: Converging Triangle until mid May?
Lower highs and higher lows since breakdown?
Then a run up at anytime towards or on 6/9's ASM?
PE data publication might have been reviewed already though.
Doesn't really matter, correction soon.
Regarding the 82.5c Warrants wall (yes, it is 82.5c):
- that is 55.6% above 53c as of now
- sellers would sell at least +10%
- an evaluation fix incl liquidity event could simply warp above, correction
Enjoying the 'show' until (o8>
1 month left; 10/5/17 ODD for GvHD Received
One month left for ASM Phase 3 PE data disclosure .. tick tock
+++
10/5/17 CytoDyn Receives Orphan Drug Designation for PRO 140 for Prevention of Graft Versus Host Disease
https://www.cytodyn.com/media/press-releases/detail/266/cytodyn-receives-orphan-drug-designation-for-pro-140-for
This is not the reason for support these days .. but surely can't hurt to remind some investors (o8>
market mysteries when investors step into the game, IMHO
and all of a sudden, a stock doesn't blink anymore, enjoying an up-correction of value. Soon here.
THERF up & will reflect on CYDY
.. and now we may start to analyze why THERF all of a sudden receives a higher market evaluation.
Hint: Very beneficial to our stock.
bottom line: Rolling BLA and its acceptance with confident PE data shown on 6/9 will give BTD and accelerate PDUFA.
Edit: Safety is known and a given by now.
Again: Similar 'effect' made TaiMed and others jump..
Because PDUFA will be just a formality by then, paperwork.
a17- thx, whatever it takes is acceptable here anyways
Right, company mumbled:
- 2018: HIV Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD)
- 2019: CD02 HIV Combination Therapy Approval w/ BTD
So 3Q19 - 4Q19 FDA approval with lots of catalysts before within one month and beyond.
My BTD Notes:
2017-07-20 10-K
- BTD application still on - additional data from combo therapy
2017-04-18 CC
- FDA said come back after P3 Adjunct PE and provide safety data. Tony says we will have that June/July. Dr. Burger is asked directly what the odds are of getting BTD then. He says point blank there is no question we will get BTD. These guys have been there and done it.
Ezek- right (o8>, volatility feels like somebody is teasing retail here quite a bit until partnership funding stands.
Last Friday exposed higher lows compared to 4/3's 17c+ dive, therefor we expect another 25c+ breakout test soon.
oh, this truly has the potential
of going and staying even higher above $4 - see our previous DD.
NAV is $8 - $12 per share alone and production comeback would allow great stock support on high margins.
But yes, its a ride and all this might need to be officially disclosed by company etc.
Whichever higher bottom will be found next week > $2.20, subsequent news will support the followup gains as long they don't dilute far below their high NAV and are not too slow in picking up sales again.
CD02 Combo Approval Timing
Pre-Events
- 2Q18: Publication Studies – CD02 Combo Primary Endpoint Study
- 6/9/18 CD02 Pivotal Phase 3 Endpoint Achieved (ASM Microbe late breaker)
At this point SP should re-test 82.5c (Warrants strike)
FDA Related
- 3Q18: Rolling BLA Submission for CD02 Combo
- 4Q18 - 1Q19: 100 patients Safety-Data from CD03 Phase 2b/3 Mono to support rolling BLA submission, orig from 100pt.
- 1Q19: BLA Submission Complete / Accepted
- 2019: CD02 HIV Combination Therapy Approval w/ BTD
Amatuer17, CD02 only needs one week of 100 patients safety data of CD03 (Needs clarification)? Also company intends a rolling BLA providing data chunks to FDA for submissions. Yes, BLA completion within 1Q19, the latest.
I am not sure whether FDA approval will take almost 3 quarters, but let's say that is the worst case.
We also know that filing and accepting a BLA is another major milestone, see TaiMed.
Reiterating our previous assumption, funding will no more happening at these bargain prices driving stock down. Elevator will be above events and hopefully selling certain rights to an upcoming partnership. Share some slices of the cake to allow proper market value appreciation maybe in combo with a direct offering at premium. Probably the reason why certain activities seems to be frozen now until this deal gets through.
CD02 combo last-mile activity shall push potential suitor(s) to make an offer, at least this is our thesis. If we don't get the whole BO right away, at least mentioned partnership(s) shall be doable.
We had a new look at BPMX last days, 'just' an Acne/Rosacea drug traded on NYSE MKT. They are in a similar spot of funding - they need it just for phase-3, approval target 2020. Partnership claimed to be closing until July'18. Similar Warrants overhead, similar undervalued SP compared to market-size penetration and so forth. CYDY's 50c and 82.5c strike is BPMX's 20c and 25c strike. Their 20c are almost exercised, ~60% and traded. Volume there is higher and stock exposes quite some volatility, but mechanics are similar. Some people are just waiting until the 20c supply dries out and stock just rises.
I just bring this up due to similarities and to mention that CYDY's situation is not that special.
But what CYDY could learn from BPMX's offering is the premium strike (or purchase price) on success! BPMX's 25c Warrants were especially issued for partnership news and will expire thereafter.
In this sense, CYDY should have sold shares at premium in a direct offering to NDA bound investors. Far less risk and supporting value. They still can do this sharing CD02 data details to be published on 6/9, maybe they will.
My apologies for another long winded post.
saltz- flat accumulating is what we see here
On top of the channel they dump, only to buy more from our floor upwards, rinse repeat. This is a net buying activity now for over 2 weeks. Yes, supply within range is still there, could be those 'cheap shares' holders or even retail.
50c conversions were just about 7M shares and I would assume those are soon to be gone, also should have started selling from the 80c top.
After those are dried out and recycled cheap supply will be no more.
Amended PRE14a 5/4 10:53am
Was:
Updated Evaluation & Others
(thx to 01)
Below you will find two quite conservative evaluations using only 6% early market penetration and only 24% gross margin.
The first block only assumed half of US Acne and Rosacea's market-size as once referenced by Zacks, while the latter uses the complete amount.
This renders BPX-01 fully diluted value within late-stage phase-3 to 84c - $1.68 and adding Rosacea in mid-stage phase-2, whole company at $1.097 - $2.194.
Also note the updated OS count and 20c Warrant exercise progress. We assume just around 40% these Warrants are left and owners might hold here for the full value. Next barrier would be the 25c Warrants and we assume none will sell below at least 15% gains and many will hold.
+++
Closing partnership for BPX-01 phase-3 trial is still in progress as as posted by company.
Nice Pre-Official Reaction Today
Meaning stock moved either on a low float P&D or reflecting our DD regarding the production & sales artifacts.
We believe 8dema around $2.40 will hold on a slide until official news, which can be hard to time.
If this was just a premature low-float P&D it surely will come back, maybe even to $2.20'ish - if holders don't believe the DD or are still scared about the late 10-K.
We are not scared, however - we surely also traded the top above $3.
01 hinted to the January '18 trade before the GMP license PR and even thereafter, coming all the way back down before rising again. Surely today also acted on lower volume.
No real crystal-ball here, but we believe when company releases the production & sales news it will properly recover back to its refundable asset value at least. This especially if 1Q18 or 10-K (whichever comes first - hint) demonstrates stability.
Notice previous post regarding growth and revenue numbers while producing.
Good luck, this stock is heavily volatile.
suvorov- tbh, I wouldn't mind, but it will be very hard to find sellers below 50c (o8>
But we surely understand shorts on RegSho, probably one reason we see high volume buys - besides the investors buying.
Good luck covering
saltz- thank you, we are numbers & science driven here
and since the science reflect the actual underlying value it is most important of course.
The evaluation we created is using low market typical multiples, nothing uber bullish at all - so was CYDY's given market size by company (as we realized).
I compared other's lower $2+ evaluation with ours and they simply just use a ~30% royalty on sales using an out-licensing agreement and of course a very high discount. Those just cannot make a $3 - $10 call while stock is below $1, it would look to unrealistic (o8>
Therefor company just cannot sell itself at $4 and nobody expects that anyways. Around $10 at current stage still would be cheap, but would allow current SH to profit well and Pro 140 to prosper faster. The latter surely is also a benefit and goal, company shall not lose out of sight.
We would like to know all costs spend by CYDY for Pro 140 until today to better calculate the floor asset price as a min 10x multiple of that. Anybody knows?
Pearsby, thank you for mentioning RegSho. Therefor we are right within a flat shorts covering strategy 49c - 59c channel. They surely like to hurry a little bit, around one month left maximum.
Thank you & Good luck
How break through 82.5c wall, raising money?
This would be my biggest puzzle to solve IF being management here, knowing shares should be traded above $3 now.
IMHO it would need a very well respected acknowledgement by another company/investor buying in or buying a license.
Company knows that, we had a little email dialogue in this regard.
Why 82.5c wall? That is the remaining Warrant strike of 130M shares and whole market must be convinced the price is now within another reality - IMHO.
Thanks of being a biotech, this day will come.
D0lph, TA wise we are waving through another little valley right now - hope for all it stays there until EOW.
Good luck.
PS: Misiu, thank you for your appreciation of science, my friends appreciate.
misiu- spot on, given the rough financing hardship
I only would complain if company would behave like DVAX,
being unwilling to sell some assets.
But IMHO, this is what we will see next post 6/9+.
chump- ER's doesn't matter here at all, market knows, we know, hopefully some shorts don't (o8>
d0lph- SPOT ON
weasel- nonsense, I stated the financial weakness all the time.
Still, for me Pro 140 outweighs this weakness by a multitude.
May shorts or flippers play until the events occurs, hopefully you are 'in' while doing so (o8>
Different aspects here ..
Seeing the well versed daytrader aspects, which might be right for a while, it doesn't really suit the underlying asset.
The claim that nobody is aware of Company is of course nonsensical, Pro 140 is very well known and our posts covering the science angle have shown this.
Of course, the need for capital also has been shown, but building this into the evaluation as we did - also shows the resulting success value being much higher.
The daytrader aspect of having a second death-cross now with 20dma < 200dma hasn't been unnoticed, HOWEVER, company could release a huge catalyst at any time as pointed out by d0lph earlier.
We have a fundamental floor around 50c here, based on the 50c strike Warrants and still some 'holders' like to flip within the channel 49c - 59c. They may book on no news until 6/9 ASM, but this also could backfire playing the channel. We may not receive news about Pro 140 until, but some business progress.
We just don't know yet.
Difference to the heavy slide and now is that earlier we did see relative high selling orders, but now volume has dried out and even shown some 'don't care' high volume buys - probably at market prices.
Last note: It is always hard to trade a biotech with high explosive potential and heavily undervalued like this one.
Good Luck to us
More than $4M equity as of today, neglecting rolling expenses?
They just raised more than $5M above needs since 2/28?
I remember some $3.7M Warrants got exercised, as shown in last 10-Q and TO.
Usually this would need an audited balance analysis
and you surely want to have a free buffer of around 1 year burn,
not just a touchdown. This is all IMHO of course.
Curious about the actual raise post 2/28 10-Q numbers now.
d0lph- yes, buying the floor and 6/9+ ASM IMHO
When I say a continuous 50c offering would not be good, I simply refer to the near term price action. Something daytraders are more concerned about. Sure, we all would love to see a private placement of some sorts at premium. Maybe somebody does sign an NDA (o8>
Whatever it will be, in around 7 weeks we will learn about the actual ph3 results and how market will appreciate it.
Thumbs up.
same site's shop finder shows not only one pharmacy
http://yp.120ask.com/buy/119232.html
We are looking forward to the late and lagging PR (as usual)
and 1Q18. May 4Q17 10-K follow right afterwards (o8>
valid for 24 month
Indicating that current products on sale with an expiration date of end of 2019 were produced quite recently (o8>
See http://yp.120ask.com/manual/119232.html
Translated parts:
NASDAQ Capital Market Initial Listing Guide
https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/initialguide.pdf
Market Value category would be the closest and company fails here as of now, see copy below.
No - $4M Equity
Yes - $15M MCAP of Public Shares
Yes - $50M MCAP
Yes - 1M public shares held
Yes - 300 SH (I guess so)
No - 3 Market Makers, but they can get that
No - $4 bid price (Forget $2 closing price)
Current Gameplay Drama
Disclaimer: It is hard to be objective here now, but I try
Ongoing Dilution
According to latest SEC filing DEF 14A from 4/6 OS was 52.88M on 2018-03-29. This implies that company has been used the $16M ATM to sell shares and which probably is the source of Deerfield's stake and maybe even of the covered shorts.
Note that on 12/31 OS was 45.94M and on 3/16 46.99M when the 10-K was filed. That is an increase of 5.89M shares already being sold until 3/29. Until then, avg might have been 75c so $4.42M sold. $11.58M left to sell at a lower average.
Assuming a generous 65c for the remaining ATM, we end up with additional 17.82M shares, i.e. 70.70M OS.
Recap:
- 2017-12-31 45.94M (10-K)
- 2018-03-16 46.99M (10-K) +1.05M
- 2018-03-23 50.22M (SC13g, Deerfield 3.239M 6.45%) +3.23M
- 2018-03-29 52.88M (DEF 14A 4/6) - ATM $16M -> $11.58M
- 2018-05-xx 70.70M Speculation - ATM done
OS $50M MCAP $35M MCAP
53M 94c 66c
58M 86c 60c
63M 80c 56c
68M 74c 52c
jpg77- yup, something like that
my post you replied to and my post 22024 emphasized the small size AS increase. Yes, the RS is off the table for now, also stated in the proxy filing. Meaning the AS incr would not be required if they would RS, in which case the AS would fall back to 200M.
So the little 75M AS incr for the higher priced offer is the bullish viewpoint, see my post 22024. Enough to finance it all.
Hardly enough AS available to double the OS here, because you have to include those 130.46M outstanding Warrants into current OS of 213M, ending up in 343.46M (see our evaluation sheet).
So you see the current maximum AS of 375M has been reached already.
The AS increase would allow company to issue a maximum of 106M shares, but usually they want to keep a free buffer.
My guess is a maximum of 75M offering for now.
Surely we would like all 82c Warrants to be exercised first (o8>
Yes, somehow they failed big time with the RS - maybe some financing deal felt through for the capital raise.
ASM on 6/9 and publishing data for all post ASM is a done deal now, good - latest next catalyst.
Again, glad that we haven't seen all SH running to the exit door and holding for the value. Sure, this should be the floor around 50c.
Best case IMHO would be the sales of ex-US license in combination with shares at high premium. As long they don't offer below 50c, best above 80c - we should be fine.
New Product on Sale in Shaanxi Province
Forgot to post pictures ..
No offering panic, I like that - Quality SH valuing the products
Expiration date end of 2019 with a 24 month shelf life
Emergcy- I hear you, we all do
I also posted before and after PE achievement about the clumsiness of management to keep open the 50c Warrant TO and RS.
But then again, since Paulson seems to be out (?), raising money on the market is not easy.
Previous small raises were not punished and expected, as the next offering is also expected now. So we are curious about the offering price and amount.
To file the BLA, they also need to pay for the filing and the Progenics & Protein Design Labs (now AbbVie Inc.) license fees:
Total License Agreement with Progenics & Protein Design Labs (now AbbVie Inc.)
(1) $1.5M + $1M = $2.5M Phase 3 trial start
Paid on 2016-02-29.
(2) $0.5M upon filing a Biologic License Application (BLA) with the FDA
or non US equivalent regulatory body
(3) $5M + $0.5M = $5.5M FDA approval or equivalent
(4) Royalty payment of up to 5% + 7.5% = 12.5% on net sales
bucks- yes. These warrants are now at 82c to be exercised.
Needs a few more liquidity events, whatever it will cause.
Science, trial progress, media, exchange, ..
Hard these days to raise money, even if this should be a no brainer.
The AS increase is only little but also shows that no immediate deal like to sell an ex-US license is about to happen these days.
Pressing all thumbs for company's success in negotiations.
gestalt, tommy- selling ex-US license is what we would love to see. This is done quite often and would fund all further trials.
So far, no company response on this 'adventure'.
Until then, market games.
tommy- right & now the AS increase scare dip .. yawn.
6/9+ will be it on CD02 PE data or GvHD earlier.
Interesting for sure.
Research Result of Last Days
(images on the bottom of post)
Chinese FDA for BSPM’s GMP and Company License
GMP License: SN20170253, Valid 2017-11-10 - 2022-11-09
Company License: Valid 2017-11-10 - 2020-12-31
Chinese Gov Website
Company has at least four licensed OTC products to sell.
Company PR'ed GMP renewal late in February, funny, isn't it?
They PR everything late, like now the 10-K. We got used to it.
+++
Chat with one pharmacy in Shaanxi Province about availability and pricing of BSPM’s Liver/Hepatitis Product.
Result: Newly produced are available to purchase with expiration data 2019.
Note that two other pharmacies around Shanghai and Beijing do not have BSPM’s products available yet.
Products on sale in Pharmacy in Shaanxi Province
Chat with said Pharmacy about pricing, expiration date and whether it is newly produced (PDF file)
+++
Notes from our debate:
- Demonstrating company is doing their job, no BK, licensed, producing and selling already.
- Chinese speakers doing their fair DD know this already
- Stock had an extra dip from $3'ish to $2 thanks to the late 10-K
- Refundable deposits $26M, OS 3M value at > $8/sh (see on board's Intro)
- Margins are >= 50%
- Company very often does file 10-K/Q late
- GMP license alone and producing again has proper value above $4/sh alone
Good luck & thanks for the late 10-K dip.
+++
GMP License: SN20170253, Valid 2017-11-10 - 2022-11-09
Company License: Valid 2017-11-10 - 2020-12-31
Although an increase in the authorized shares of Common Stock could, under certain circumstances, have an anti-takeover effect, this proposal to adopt the amendment is not in response to any effort of which the Company is aware to accumulate Common Stock or obtain control of the Company
colleague found this funny statement, which reads like
We are looking for a suitor, indeed.
And yes, they are - as stated so many times (o8>
+++
Today's trading was OK, yesterday and today defended the 54c price line - bouncing from there and closing above 8dema 54.31c
As D0lph projected, scratching at the upper Bollinger Band (BB) above 20dma (middle BB), while those sporadic bigger dumps resided.
This may lead to the conclusion that the 50c Warrants buyer who preferred to sell are finally done, having had a look at the actual story here (o8>
Interestingly, if you look at the D Ichimoku chart, on 5/3 is the least resistance to move above 67.5c. Sometimes it gets respected - sometimes not. Knowing the ASM PE data catalyst, a run up back to 90c is what we expect. So this could be significant.
Just noting this trading here, since it confirms the young reversal, just started two days ago.
Good luck everybody
Shareholders Meeting on 6/5, 4 days before ASM poster on 6/9
Moderate authorized shares (AS) increase of just 75M requested, from 375M to 450M. This points to a higher future offering price above 70c. We expect 80c or higher.
Edit: Looking at the table, this may even hint at $1 (o8>
Sounds good to us.
Future offerings are included in our shown evaluation, see
of the overall evaluation
We started buying slowly again, neatly below 200dma
Our little DD update hasn't shown anything new here yet,
but that the Chinese FDA website has indeed listed their
renewed GMP (manufacturer) license since November 2017
and their GSP (supply) license.
We are looking into updates on their relaunched production and sales. Will update here for any news, of course.
Company changed auditor a while ago again, therefor the 10-K has been delayed. I wanted to wait buying until its SEC filed, but around $2 we couldn't resist. The low volume slide may not last forever.
Let's see how it this goes.
My Moderator Request was denied ..
"It has been less than 30 days since your last application to moderate this board, or the date your last request was closed.
You will be eligible to re-apply on 05/17/2018 04:08:17 PM."
When it will be granted, I will pin my last compilation post
and keep it more up to date.
May also add some data in the intro.
Also, if we can debate the evaluation spreadsheet, you are more than welcome.
I know that the old Rodman analysis only used a 30% royalty from sold drugs via partnership. This is of course quite humorous. But they surely can make a 28x gain call (o8>