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Here we go again.......
Option,option,option......ITM,ATM and 3 months out....use the money you can effort to loose!
Natural gas at $5.66......
"NASA Houston:We have a problem......"
Natural gas price.......
$5.633 at the moment.
‘Crazy’ Nat Gas Market...
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/v.aFVEnEiIhY.mp3
Only certainty ahead:uncertainty forward!
Natural gas NGH4 at $5.58....
Wowwwwww....
More coal fired plants coming back on line........
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/02/04/luminant-plans-to-turn-on-nearly-2000-megawatts-two-months-early/
And
Big turn around in pps and likely it was driven by BTU conference call today.....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1982611-peabody-energys-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed
or
http://205.144.147.162/cgi-bin/confCast?CID=316289&Submit=Go&PWD=&a=1
Politically correct,CO2(deduction) centric,good for the environment and future generations.........
http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2014/01/grid_manager_pjm_asks_consumer.html
My favorite lines:
"Or the natural gas may be available to some power plants, but at prices so high that the electricity they generate would be too expensive to compete against coal - or even oil-fired - power plants.
That occurred during the first Arctic blitz and some gas plants were ordered to run anyway. PJM has now won federal approval to pay those power plant owners."
PS- Ostracizing and ignoring economic/availability of coal may become a BLACK SWAN EVENT in 2014/2015/2016!! I say the the odds of grid failures are no longer less than 10%,be prepared(have plenty of chopped wood stockpiled),and I wish I'm off on this one.
Can Natural Gas Weather The Cold?......
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2014/01/26/can-natural-gas-weather-the-cold/
From "Glut" To Panic: Natural Gas Soars .....
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/1/25/from-glut-to-panic-natural-gas-soars.html
More taxation on gas as utility companies picked gas over coal for political reasons......
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/natural-gas-could-test-lows-on-warm-weather-shover-HvSyQlEaQj6xi5P~6XkAxQ.html
PS-Who is the ones stuck with extra surcharges as the economic of burning coal is ignored??Can the GREEN get support from the masses with utility increases of 20% and more???? Unless there is a natural gas subsidies by Uncle Sam,stronger reliance on natural gas is UNSUSTAINABLE AND PROBLEMATIC!
PS2-A 250 billion new pipe lines are needed to connect the gas from the new sources,to existing infrastructure,to make the gas CHEAP!Assuming the money is there,the risk of betting on CHEAP GAS without subsidies can be HUGE during the construction!!
We have been told.........
"1/3 of the natural gas underground can be extracted below $4.00 in the next 20 years.."
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000239253#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMjM2NzgwIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoickZVQmo5NjhjV0gyelNFekR6bE4zUT09IiwidlRhYiI6ImluZm8iLCJ2UGFnZSI6IiIsImdOYXYiOlsiwqBMYXRlc3QgVmlkZW8iLCLCoEhvdCBUb3BpY3PCoCJdLCJnU2VjdCI6Ik9pbCBhbmQgR2FzIiwiZ1BhZ2UiOjEsInN5bSI6IiIsInNlYXJjaCI6IiJ9
PS-Replacement of coal by cleaner natural gas has started and to be in full speed before 2016:Is there a downside risk,missed by most investors???
PS2-Or are there upside risk,when the nat gas future exceeds $6.00 soon???
Natural gas price at $5.18........
"So much natural gas is coming out of storage that the Energy Department says supplies have fallen 20 percent below a year ago — and that was before this latest cold spell......"We've got record demand, record withdrawals from storage, and short-term production is threatened," says energy analyst Stephen Schork. "It's a dangerous market right now.""
PS-Can a few spikes in wintery weather takeout the shale gas supply temporarily that suppose to last 100 years????Or are we ready for a temporary shutdown of NO HEATING/BROWNOUT for few hours when outside temperature is ARCTIC COLD??
Natural gas price...........
Was $4.884!Wowwwwww........
http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-streaming-chart
$9.25 was crossed today.......
The high was $9.27,and exceeded the $8.50-$9.25 range tender offered by the company!
My take:
Street now sees a high likely scenario of under subscription of less than 8% share buy back(way less)! With left over capital to be returned back to shareholders continuing!!
Where to:
1. New tender offer above $9.25!
2. Close tender offer at $9.25,balance toward dividend increases!
3. ..........
PS-Currently I have truck loads of WEN Jan 2015 $10.00 strike call options and some Jan 2016 $7.00 call options: a million dollar baby after 2015?????
PS2-Expect a frenzy soon:$$$ is in the water! 2014 should be the year for Wendy as a fast causal or top tier QSR!
CSX "out growing coal" interview......
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/v_jmYnPHUuSU.mp3
Modified dutch auction........
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_auction
"Dutch auction share repurchases
The introduction of the Dutch auction share repurchase in 1981 allows firms an alternative to the fixed price tender offer when executing a tender offer share repurchase. The first firm to utilize the Dutch auction was Todd Shipyards. A Dutch auction offer specifies a price range within which the shares will ultimately be purchased. Shareholders are invited to tender their stock, if they desire, at any price within the stated range. The firm then compiles these responses, creating a supply curve for the stock.[2] The purchase price is the lowest price that allows the firm to buy the number of shares sought in the offer, and the firm pays that price to all investors who tendered at or below that price. If the number of shares tendered exceeds the number sought, then the company purchases less than all shares tendered at or below the purchase price on a pro rata basis to all who tendered at or below the purchase price. If too few shares are tendered, then the firm either cancels the offer (provided it had been made conditional on a minimum acceptance), or it buys back all tendered shares at the maximum price."
PS-I have a feeling tendered shares would come in below 8% and company buy it for $9.25,with a left over balance,further supporting the stock price: a well engineered plan and win-win/in-the-money for almost everyone,except shorties.
PS2-Phase II: nibbling at the heels of Chipotle and Panera!
My favorite sites......
On PRB coal price and factors effecting it.
PRB(Powder River Basin) coal future prices:
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Western_Rail_Powder_River_Basin_%28PRB%29_Coal_Swap_Futures_Futures/JQP
EIA(Energy Information Administration):
http://www.eia.gov/coal/news_markets/
Real time natural gas price:
http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-streaming-chart
Weather/temperature map of the US and projections going foward:
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/tendayforecastusnational/usweathernight5_large.html?clip=undefined®ion=undefined&collection=localwxforecast&presname=undefined
Natural gas storage data as of 1/10/2014.......
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
"Working gas in storage was 2,530 Bcf as of Friday, January 10, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 287 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 659 Bcf less than last year at this time and 443 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,973 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 292 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 149 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 104 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,016 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 107 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 46 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 31 Bcf. At 2,530 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range."
PS-A driver of higher coal prices,hard at work in the dark(ignored by the market)??
Wowwww a great 4Q........
Will it break above $9.25 this morning?Very likely!
When it rains,it pours........
Why the BIG pps drop lately?Are these it and over?
"Goldman Sachs' stepping away from coal exports is yet another sign from Wall Street that coal export is a losing investment," Crina Hoyer, executive director of RE Sources for Sustainable Communities, said in a statement."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/08/goldman-port-sale-idUSL2N0KI00U20140108
"Goldman Sachs last July posted a warning for investors that coal exports would decline in future years. Tuesday’s announcement prompted a prominent coal opponent, Crina Hoyer of ReSources for Sustainable Communities, to say,"
http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/01/08/smart-money-bailing-northwest-coal-exports-goldman-sachs-divests-gateway-pacific
And
Will pps goes up BIG soon?Can these factors be the ones?
"Coal for delivery next month to Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp rose 3.2 percent to $81.50 a metric ton, the biggest increase since Oct. 24, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg......A further halt in exports “would be supportive of prices because it will take supply out,” Trevor Sikorski, the head of natural gas, coal and carbon at Energy Aspects Ltd. in London., said by phone. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-08/drummond-s-coal-loading-halted-as-colombia-pulls-port-license.html
"Norway’s $820 billion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, is closer to getting the go ahead to expand into more asset classes as it struggles to meet return targets."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-08/world-s-biggest-wealth-fund-sees-backing-to-expand-investments.html?cmpid=yhoo
Only few months ago,sovereign wealth funds had considered coal companies as "tobacco companies of the 1970!" and would not touch them with a ten foot pole: start of challenging the merits of global warming/cooling??And in preparation to scoop up CHEAP coal companies???$$$$$$$$$$
This input price is scary.........
"Natural-gas prices surged to all-time highs on the East Coast on Monday as frigid weather approached, raising the prospect of higher prices nationwide in coming weeks.
Natural gas for Tuesday delivery rose as high as $90(not a typo) a million British thermal units at a pipeline delivery point in New Jersey where New York City gas prices are set,.........."
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303933104579304452246495282
PS-Without ample coal supply as an alternative or backup,power companies are sweating bullets right now:input cost of natural gas(accounted for about 32% power generation) is getting out of hand completely if this persists any longer! Most likely freaking out consumers soon,as the surcharges are added to the next billing cycle!!
Glimpse into China coal technology development as of 2013..........
http://energyseminar.stanford.edu/node/531
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/china-beats-u-s-with-power-from-coal-processing-trapping-carbon.html
A picture is worth thousands of words.......
http://www.fool.com/server/printarticle.aspx?file=/investing/general/2014/01/01/why-investors-should-be-worried-about-fast-food.aspx
The million dollar question: will it continue its momentum into 2014? We shall get a glimpse soon on Jan 13.
Lawrence G. McDonald on coal...............
He is the author of A Colossal Failure of Common Sense
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000231742&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo
Who’ll Win the 2014 Mid-Term Elections? Coal Stocks......
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2013/12/27/wholl-win-the-2014-mid-term-elections-coal-stocks/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
Accumulation before 1/13/2014 announcement??......
This baby has been up 6 sessions in a row!! Someone wants the stock bad.So far today,518 contracts of Feb $9.0 2014 have been traded,upward pressure is on.
Will we see $9.00 tomorrow?I believe likely.
There are No Free Markets......
Including natural gas according to Rob Kirby!
http://usawatchdog.com/colossal-fraud-there-are-no-free-markets-rob-kirby/#more-11532
Will Natural Gas Fuel the Future?
A bit more on PRB coal export logistics.......
http://www.coalage.com/index.php/departments/transportation-tips/2826-shipping-prb-coal-to-asia-now.html
"Canary in the coal mine" in P/L of the PRB coal export to Asia:
http://daily.sightline.org/2013/11/13/cloud-peak-lost-money-selling-coal-to-asia/
Best wishes for 2014...
From a future "MILLIONAIRE$$$" to another future "MILLIONAIRE$$$"!!
Latest gossips on natural gas price......
"Given the momentum we are seeing, $5 is clearly a target," said Addison Armstrong, senior director of market research at Tradition Energy, a brokerage in Stamford, Conn. He said trading volume was twice the typical level.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304866904579268313556134436
and
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-recos-commodities/long-term-price-outlook-looks-positive-for-natural-gas_1012886.html
NATURAL GAS Jan 2014 (E) Future.......
At $4.528!!
A bit more on Peabody Energy's great sells job to China..........
http://coal.energy-business-review.com/news/peabody-energy-and-shenhua-sign-joint-venture-agreement-201213-4149322
Why:
"Annual world coal demand is expected to grow by 1.2 billion tonnes in the next five years, with more than 80 percent of projected global demand growth in China and India,"
My favorite line:
"Peabody provides sustainable mining and CLEAN COAL SOLUTIONS....."
PS-WOWWW,a coal company becomes a clean air solution solver!!$$$$$$$ follows.......
Going away present......
http://investmentwatchblog.com/rick-rule-mines-are-about-to-shut-down/
PS-Make sure the company "yield" to investors,not just the management,and time is running out!
NATURAL GAS Jan 2014 (E) Future.......
At $4.392.
My guess is.........
X Coal Energy and Resources.
http://www.xcoal.com/about.php
Based on their 2011E numbers:
The company projected to produce 55 million mt/US total of 85 million mt,or more than 50%+ in 2011.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&ved=0CGoQFjAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wvcommerce.org%2FApp_Media%2Fassets%2Fdoc%2Fenergy%2FEnergy_Summits%2Fpresentations_2011%2FErnieThrasher_XCoal.pdf&ei=SV2yUpKCK8bK2wX7qIHYBQ&usg=AFQjCNFQlkYYGyZDZJOmM6R5ULfRCMtilg&bvm=bv.58187178,d.b2I
PS-Met coal may not be where the action(or $$$$$$$) is. I believe "cleaner dirty coals" or thermal coals with either low sulfur/ash/chlorine content,are what the new demands call for: "clean coals" originate from PRB or Illinois most likely emerging as the winners,as the cheapest and quickest fixes to country like China,in desperate need to mitigate its air pollution issues,similar to what the US had to face in the early 1970.
PS1-Smart cookies of the day: those who bought ACI Jan 2014 4.000 call (ACI140118C00004000) today.Kudos to you!
WOWWWWW......
"10:20 am Peabody Energy and China's Shenhua Group create JV to supply Shenhua with coal from Peabody's global platform (BTU) :
Co and China's Shenhua Group announced they have entered into an agreement to create Sino-Pacific Coal Trading, a Singapore-based JV company that will supply Shenhua's growing coal import demand with thermal coal from Peabody's global production and coal trading platform.
Peabody Energy President - Asia and Trading Christopher J. Hagedorn said the new 50/50 joint venture between the two companies represents a significant milestone in Peabody's Asia growth strategy.
Subject to regulatory review, Sino-Pacific Coal Trading Corporation is expected to begin operating in 2014, sourcing coal from key global supply basins to provide Shenhua with thermal coal for its Chinese generating subsidiaries."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/inplay-briefing-com-055139997.html#btu
PS-Impact(reduction of supply) of export on the US supply and demand curve? I SMELL BIG $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ IN 2014/2015.........2050!!
Next few weeks and longer........
None in penny stocks.