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Looks like 1 liked what he heard yesterday. That's all you need anyway. Just one hedge that decides it's time to make this an AMEX stock.
I like the new format anyway. Hold the news back and maybe feed it to the hedges first. That way the pattern of going down on news is gone for good and gets the penny players out of the stock for good.
MACD cross. Time for $1.60's.
No, you have it all wrong. These are the cash for cash conversions they did off the last Q report. The "cleaning of the books" they did the end of the year commanded they take all the cash they recieved from various individuals and turn it into stock. These are not late filings. They only reflect when the original cash transaction took place.
Shorts cannot have it both ways. They can scream dilution all they want on those conversions but along with it comes all the S-4 buys by insiders hitting the tape as a result of those conversions they did.
Thanks SJ. The thing that is so important here that everyone keeps forgetting is stocks can take off and run without news. This one already did once. Many times you will see stocks put on meteoric runs to the upside in advance of great follow through numbers and company changing events. In other words, somebody always knows. A lot of times hedge funds are tipped off and even pay good money to "find out the news in advance." If you look at this situation once again from all angles, it's easy to see what is happening here. They ran it, it got clobbered to drive everybody out, now they have all the shares, and it walks away to new highs. Happens all the time in this market.
The company knew back in October they had three things that needed to be accomplished: appease the SEC inquiry on the past Q reports, do the cash for cash conversions into stock, and raise capital to complete their roll outs per the business plan. While many thought the stock took off like it did based on the December report you can be sure it had help. Just like so many companies out there, they used the increase in share price to raise cash and do the placement. No shorting at the top tells you it was part of a bigger plan so no death spiral here.
Once the first of the 144's hit, the market makers got an additional bonus. They knew just like rats through a hole all these 144 contract players would all want their money. Having a 30 day advance notice is a wonderful thing for a market maker. They can team up and just mirror trades back and forth between each other to depress the price as much as possible so these people sell as cheap as possible. Their selling just makes it even weaker. That is why you got such oversold conditions. Just looking at the volume on those 5 mil+ shares hitting the tape, you know they were bought and several market makers are sporting some large inventory now for those two institutions PK said were accumulating.
Suddenly the 144's stop. You already know the management insiders are not selling any shares. Then the march to $2+ starts once the word gets out they want Amex listing. Just like the run for a PP, the same thing happens for listing. The hedges know there will be buyers of the stock and they want to own it beforehand.
All the 144 players will look at all that stock they dumped thinking they were winners for triples and they leave untold huge $$$$$$$$$ on the table. Those that got those 144 shares make easy $$$$$$$. The PP players make great $$$$$$$. Those buying in off the Amex listing make $$$$$$$ and substantiate the run with buy ratings and research reports. The company follows through with nationwide Trump, then Trump advertising the product, then probably Trump on The Apprentice this summer, then new products and flavors, plus the 100000 case mark gets broken warranting a valuation of $2000 per case. It all falls into place perfectly and you see now why PK is pounding the table that the stock is so undervalued. He already knows the end result.
You're looking at yet another JSDA where JDSA was 2 years ago. JSDA may be trying to chase HANS but DKAM is chasing JSDA. Even JSDA is showing you how stocks can run on no additional follow through news. Once they get going you just cannot stop them. And with most of these 144's already gone, there won't be any idiot sellers in the way to stop DKAM either.
The bottom is in. Just nobody knows it yet. 99% are still on the sidelines which is good. Let 'em stay there. Just one less person to get in the way with a sell order. Volume tells you that. They will be buyers at $2 and for good reason.
But now the second reason and most important. I'm really sick and tired of the negativity. I have never seen a stock where people whine and moan about everything. It goes down they b*tch. It goes up, they b*tch. The stock shows signs of its first reversal and here they come, hey, double top. A move to a higher exchange, that sucks. A buyout, that sucks. Kenny said it best recently when he told me the market would eventually get it right on this stock and this opportunity to pick up this undervalued stock will come and go. That pretty much explains where everybody went. They know what they have. They know it will be huge. Why listen to the crap when all it does is ruin a good forum? I don't need to say anything either because as I said, the market will get it right.
Well, it's because today's little shindig is one of "those events" you do not publicize.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18289562
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18271619
Right on schedule. Two mid market runs in two days. Nice pattern to be setting up for the fools who keep selling the open every day.
Well, the first thing it does is brings about a price increase of 100% or more off the bottom pull back for a sustained bid price of $2. Most importantly though it puts it square in the lap of these sector funds that buy and hold the likes of HANS, JSDA, LBIX, and others. On top of the AMEX listing, it forces many of these market makers to start buying to get inventory for their clients. But, they've been doing that all the way down anyway. You have seen all the fresh faces I'm sure. These same market makers don't hover around the bid and ask for days and weeks for nothing. It is to gain inventory in advance of some kind of event.
YW! Maybe that is what this little "get together" is all about out on LI. Only thing left is a price sustained over $2 and the only reason it is here is those 144's that have no idea they sold a $5 stock at less than a 1/3 of the price. If anybody has the $$$$ to move the stock large, it will be that group. Nothing anybody has to put up to get in the way can stop them for sure.
Standard sell at the open and then it takes off again. Once everybody realizes somebody is going to run this over $2 to be in it large it will take care of itself.
I also got the note about AMEX listing. Looks like they will get it and kudos to management doing all the restructuring. No reverse needed just an easy slide to AMEX with a symbol change.
All that's left is $2 and that will come quickly.
1. Market Cap minimum $50 million - Done
2. Public Float Minimum $15 million - Done
3. Shareholder Equity Minimum $4 million - Done
4. Minimum Bid Price $2
I should add that it's the CEO is making it known they are making the move immediately for Amex listing.
I was right. They are sandbagging. Not intentionally but if you remember from the conference call they had to delay the 1.75 liter production and delivery due to a labeling problem with the gold labels. That has been resolved by the Germans. If anybody can bake a label it's them right? What we didn't know is they are sitting on 30K cases of 1.75 orders that are being produced now for delivery. Control states going out now.
Oh, the "how I know factor". An analyst told me this morning that was not able to sit in on the conference call. He called Pat directly and he told him because he asked.
You know what? Actually it might be best if we just don't say anything more. Can't even begin to think of all the countless good things the company has said and done with news and guidance yet nobody cares enough to move the stock or buy with any authority. This way if the stock takes off and nobody has absolutely any idea why, then they won't be able to talk it down or try to put a value on the reason why it took off. Works for me. See ya.
That's an excellent point. It is always important though, and want it known that mine is not designed to get people to buy or to have them do anything they wouldn't ordinarily do. I'm just doing the one thing that never seems to happen. When a stock pulls back after a big run and the wise guys are playing their games to get people to sell, somebody has to have the common sense to continue to remind people why the stock ran in the first place. And always remind them this stock could just up and run at any time for any reason. It isn't always going to go lower. That is just what they want you to think, and react to!
We missed this also yesterday. There are a couple of insitutions that are buying stock but they are still under 5%.
It's not a pump whatsoever. It is what we've been saying all along. I don't give a flip who wants this and wants that otherwise or doesn't want the company bought out. It was told to me in person that this company was formed for the express purpose of marketing an inconic branded line of products and taking it worldwide for the express purpose of getting bought out for a solid premium. The Donald wants $2.3 billion. Pat knows $2000 a case is the going rate for Premium Spirits. These numbers are not made up. This is what is happening.
No, it is from the conference yesterday. But also confirmed from talking to companies in the business. I'm just repeating what Kenny said.
Stock should be at $3.79 right now. As per the valuation of all spirits manufacturers and the metric basis of valuation used in the sector, companies value spirits companies at $2000 per case on sales over 100000 cases per year. Kenny's first year estimates are for 150000 cases. This is also how grey Goose was valued. And also Absolut, etc.. He also adds that the market will add a slight premium to the price of DKAM because bigger companies come straight to them for THEIR next spirits offering. This tells me he has already been talking to companies doing just that. Why say it otherwise? And why say it if he hasn't already heard a number that confirms that premium?
"We're at $6 million +/- right now with Trump" at the end of 5 months. "We have 20000 cases on order which we are delivering right now." From yesterday's call. That means with a little more than a month to go in the quarter, they are sitting on roughly 22000 cases.
Right, and it is ending right now
Well the really good thing about it when it does take off. Who knows how many idgets will show up wondering why its running on no news. The answer is simple. About 30 positive press releases for the company that were ignored. At least $2-$3 in those alone compared to other stocks.
Idgets. Volume says it all. When you least expect it, it will just take off.
Ketel One is a one product family of products. Where the company makes all their $$$$$$$millions is in worldwide distribution. Nolet Spirits and Nolet Spirits USA. Last fall when I checked, they distributed over 200 vodkas and about 1500 products total.
Correction on that. It appears now they've redefined themselves. It appears they represent some 1500-2000 vodkas as ivodka.com.
The list continues to grow. Last week EVST does a financing deal just like DKAM and investors approve. The price holds. Today BRLC does a financing deal just like DKAM. The price goes higher. Investors cheer. Once again, DKAM the only stock to tumble on financing news in the past two years. How convenient.
Well that jives with what I was told. When it came to my attention that the owners of Ketel One were buying stock I did not know they had an option to buy Trump Vodka. Strange we never saw that in the SB-2 but it was clearly expressed to analysts today. It was actually said that Ketel One wanted to scoop up the Trump name to add to their branded offering. However, their real interest surprisingly is in the soft beverage arena. As many know, it is so much easier to go buy a product in these days of sector consolidation than it is to start making your own from scratch. They were valuing Newmans at 10 times forward sales and could very well have thrown a number out when word of Pepsi and Coke grabbing the nationwide bid rights starting filtering last fall through the distributors. With Kenny throwing out $24 million in sales, that puts Newmans at $3.00 by itself. Trump is your own best guess but the 10 times number keeps coming back over and over. What everyone fails to realize is one important thing that has rang true with every buyout so far. It isn't what the company is worth on paper the way DKAM is doing business now. It is what it is worth on paper with another company taking over. Should a Ketel One make an offer that is put in a PR, it is done to take the company private one way or rolled in another and all the shareholders go away for a price. Their worldwide distribution network, along with the likes of a Constellation, Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Bacardi, or even Ketel One makes their purchase of DKAM a surefire winner.
It was also odd they left the one important trademark out.
Titan
Unfortunately yes. How is it that keeps happening?
50% of the "NET" profits.
$100 million in sales.
$45 million in gross margin
$9 million SGA (assuming no more launch costs)
$373 K interest
$32.27 Income after other expenses
$3.6 million income taxes ($24 mil LP carryover)
$26.67 million net profit
$13.34 million payable to Trump (As agreement states approx.) (added back into SGA)
(Assumes all sales come from Trump Vodka. Also assumes company will buy back about 5 million shares. With the way everybody continues to talk the stock down it will still be $1.50 with $100 million in sales. So absolutely buy stock back)
But with $100 million in Trump sales, it would be safe to assume at that point, total sales for the company will be $150-$200 million. So, this is a moot example.
tom, NH is a control state I believe and actually approached the company about selling the product before it even came to market. The only one that did. The others have dragged their feet for almost a year. You should be able to get it just about anywhere.
Billy's right. Trump Vodka is sponsoring the party tonight where all the "secret talk" goes on. Everybody who WAS NOT at their presentation will be there. Most will be trying the product for the first time. They can all be the judge tonight is correct. The product sells itself and the company.
I hate that Kenny went with prepared speech #2.
The one I thought he would definitely go with was simple:
"Hello ladies and gentlemen. We are DKAM; the makers of Trump Vodka. The makers of Newmans Own Sparkling Beverages. We are going global with Trump. We are going nationwide with Newmans Own. We have cash. We have no debt. We have new products coming to market, one of which will be as big as Trump Vodka. Grey Goose sold 17000 cases in its first year. Trump Vodka sold 40000 cases in the first 5 months.
I will open the bidding at $10. Do I hear $15?"
LMAO!!!!
Carl Nolet Jr who runs the Spirits USA business purchased 500000 shares some time back. To what extent they are still buying, I can't say. The only comment I can offer was at the time he said, "We are hedging our bets on the loss of market share to Trump Vodka."
I'm telling you for the sake of telling you because it's the truth. Beyond that, we'll all have to see who puts out the first unsolicited offer and how the Nolet Family responds.
"We feel our company is undervalued"
This is so ridiculous how everybody is missing it. Undervalued. Oversold. Ketel One with an option to buy the company. DKAM with an option to buy Wanders Distillery. Going global. Newmans outsells every brand it is placed on the shelf next to. We don't need capital. Only 4 million shares in the recent financing. All other shares are $3.00 warrants and not issued. No debt.
This is a collosal mass hypnosis of "you gotta be kidding me."
"Any place we put Newmans, it instantly outsells all its competitors. Our biggest problem is convincing stores they do not already carry it."
Unbelievable!
Not looking for any additional capital
OK, now we're talking. He said Ketel One has an option to buy Trump Vodka. We told you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They want icons that are trans generational.
"I'll let you be the judge of how good we are tonight"
All I needed to hear.
Kenny said cognac in the portfolio with an icon. Must have slept through that event happening!