Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
CYDY has lost another healthy -15% in Germany stock market this morning.
Where will this stop?
I can tell you: this may bounce up or down for many reasons, founded or unfounded.
But given the financial situation of the company, on the verge of bankruptcy, I believe this will go below $0.25 in a matter of weeks to months.
Trapped with toxic loans and a huge cash burn rate. Plus the pending risk of a SEC halt given all their mistakes and what I believe are partial communication of material data to shareholders. If the stock is halted, capital can be trapped for a long time. Until the death upon re-open.
Yes I have listened to everything from A to Z.
Nader Pourhassan the CEO conveniently repeated the same data-mined points over and over and sidestepped the negative facts, as usual with him. I believe he is a frauder.
I won't even discuss the M.D. promoting an unapproved drug. Last I heard this shall be illegal. If I were an employee/partner of Nader Pourhassan I would be VERY careful about any pressure to state positive things.
Also waiting for the day they accept live questions. Won't happen.
To conclude, in the Merry Go Round fraud department: "We are an oncology company". AH AH AH AH
I have these 3 principles pinned on my desktop - so that I read them every day:
- Invest based on a numeric analysis only
- Fix mistakes immediately
- Invert market confidence
Each of these 3 has saved me from many, many disasters
Nope I am a professional statistician and the data is:
(1) bad
(2) censored (every negative element has been omitted)
(3) crazily datamined without due corrections for the data mining
It’s just fake. Find me any random dataset and I could do exactly the same, finding “great” signal in pure noise. Excepted I would use the same tricks and of course my analysis would be fake.
This is junk. I would recommend anybody to follow a Uni Statistics course before interpreting these results, it makes all the difference.
Going through the Cytodyn 8K data tables with a statistician eye (remember, it’s my profession). So many methodological weaknesses, voluntary or not. It’s staggering. Critical numbers (the ones where it’s easy to conceal a cheat) missing, key part of the statistical procedure (the part where you can cheat) not explicitated. As if by chance. If it’s not done voluntarily then some statisticians have to be fired. It screams at best amateurism at worst fraud.
Cytodyn CEO absurdity in this conf. call is a giant IQ test. For his employees and business partners. They should run away as fast as they can. Bankruptcy, mass dilution, SEC and class actions coming and it won’t be pretty.
It’s hysterical
Rolling on the floor given the crazy absurdity of the Cytodyn announcements.
Oncology? Or long haulers? While HIV and COVID are nowhere?
AH AH AH AH it’s so comical
I am still short for a fourth round, with a different size. I optimize this with a statistical model which differs based on the expected horizon and expected events.
Cytodyn is now on my bread & butter chronic frauds list. Profitable short. So I will always be around it. Just requires patience, rationality and a taste for contrarian opinions. Thanks again for this profitable opportunity, I stand on the shoulder of giants. Thanks again.
Now I believe the class action lawsuits are coming against Cytodyn. CEO has made many mistakes.
I made a bundle today and the last couple weeks, for the third time since last summer, thanks to this little Cytodyn fraud.
3 shots, 3 large victories.
The stock is still waaaay overpriced. Fair price is way below $0.25 based on my analysis.
AH AH AH AH thanks to all
“Strong”? A -25% stock fall?
AH AH AH AH AH AH AH AH
The good news is that you ultimately won against the confirmation biases.
Now beyond the failed Leronlimab science (read my posts on Twitter and here and you will see many shorts like me invested a lot of resources, time and skills to infer that Leronlimab would go nowhere with >99% probability) there is also the fraud business.
I believe that you have been scammed by Cytodyn insiders. I have shorted stock market frauds for more than 10 years and Cytodyn has all the signs and fits the patterns.
I am far from the only one, or the first one, to believe that. In fact I came pretty late to this insight.
If I am correct you could recover quite a bundle through a class action lawsuit. If I were you I would at the very least discuss that situation with an attorney. Starting facts can be gathered from many places, starting with the excellent BuyersStrike posts. My opinion is that the CEO committed many dishonest mistakes along the way, including manipulative declarations that were later proven wrong.
Cytodyn is a Merry Go Round fraud. Always a delay, always a new shiny thing, always more capital needed...
You won a major inner battle today.
Here is the blood bath. Cytodyn is crashing down as the market is processing the information. This is only the very beginning: stock will end up below $0.25 in the coming months as the financial mess compounds everything. Bankruptcy or massive dilution, whatever the choice made by management, same result for the stock price.
The numbers are very bad in fact. That's why statistician professionals are paid to analyze these numbers: it is the opposite of the appearances. The company knows how to lie without breaking any law.
Here is why:
p-values mean nothing if you don't control for the number of statistical tests (the number of p-values you have computed) performed. Because, the more tests you perform, the higher the chance that you obtain, through pure random luck, a good p-value. Perform several dozen tests and I guarantee you that you will find good p-values in any random dataset. Hundreds and you have cured cancer, covid, and everything else. Of course, it's a fallacy, you have cured nothing. The p-value is just good because the company has performed heavy data mining without correcting the p-value accordingly.
To control for the number of tests, that we call the multiplicity, there are various correction methods, making different assumptions. Here the tests were designed post-hoc (=after a first look at the data), as opposed to the regular endpoint tests which were designed ex-ante (=before any look at the data). Consequently, the "standard" correction methods are Bonferroni and Holm-Bonferroni - smarter methods could have been used but only for tests designed ex-ante or under very strict conditions that are not met here.
With these method, to make it simple, for the best-ever p-value you get you have to multiply it by the number of tests performed - the multiplicity. In fact more than that because you already burned some alpha with the pre-designed tests performed (the regular endpoints which have all be missed), but I will be nice let's forget about that, it just makes things worse.
Reading the PRs and based on my experience, I think that the correction factor is certainly higher than 30, and probably in the 50-100 range.
So a p-value of 0.0319 is now, after the correction due to the datamining, above 0.6. Meaningless.
That's why I would advise any investor to take a course in statistics OR to avoid interpreting p-values at all. It's very easy to get tricked here. There are more subtleties than this, countless subtleties and traps.
Complete rout in the German stock market.
And the US stock market has not even opened with all its sellers in a hurry now:
- Private investors and warrant holders with acquisition prices around $3 (see past SEC filings...lots of these)
- Toxic lender with ratchet conversion price around $3
- Insider friends & families wanting to exit the ship with at least something
- Ex-chairman of the board with >8 million shares who started liquidation in Oct. right before the runup
- Stop loss orders
- Others panicking
Enjoy the show and relax.
PS: tomorrow will be worse.
Like Enron or Theranos. They made history and are very famous now.
Cytodyn is a Merry Go Round fraud that has no card left in its sleeves.
100% failure over more than a dozen “sure thing” promises and suggestions by the CEO. His ability to break promises is so predictable it makes any rational mind wonder why
GLTA
If you don't have a proper statistical analysis at hand, when in doubt follow the insiders. CEO has sold >88% of this shares last May while touting the incredible COVID opportunity. CFO has programmed the sale of his shares (>87% sold) right after the COVID CD12 interim while touting his incredible support. All of that a couple weeks before an incredible event that was supposed to push the stock to 3 digits? When in doubt, watch what they do, not what they say. What they did shows they didn't believe in their own medicine. They are just there to rake in huge salaries and unmerited warrants to dump on shareholders. Writing is on the wall.
Nope. The trial results shows 2 things: (a) all the endpoints have failed (b) the company has datamined the hell out of the dataset to come up with handpicked subsets of a subset, custom adjustments and convenient mITT censoring, to produce fake p-values. Fake because they are not corrected for the data mining (=multiplicity of statistical tests) performed. Once you correct them (e.g., multiply them by x30, x50 or more, e.g. Bonferroni or Holm-Bonferroni statistical correction) you end up with nothing usable. Random noise. The company is not transparent. I am a statistician and a scientist and their behavior, as much as their data, stinks. The FDA are not choir boys and girls. It's game over.
The best the company could do is stop the fraud there and liquidate. The worst is extend with another trial for this subset and continue The Cult.
Cytodyn won’t get EUA. It’s time to recognize the pattern. Read my posts here and on Twitter.
Wrong. I have shorted several times this stock and have made a bundle every time. It’s a pattern. Cytodyn is what I call a Merry Go Round fraud. I just learned the pattern and it rains gold. I am currenty short and welcoming this new cashfall. If i were long I would immediately sell and go short.
AH AH AH Cytodyn is a stock market fraud. The Merry Go Round subtype. Learn the pattern.
That's an understatement.
Spamming the FDA is not a solution. Reality is: Cytodyn has failed. For the 10th time.
That's exactly what the DSMC recommended waaaayy back in mid-october. They asked for a new 75% interim to perform a "sample size reassessment" and extend mortality measurement horizon to 42 days. Guess what, Nader Pourhassan has refused both. This recommendation was very bad news. CEO's refusal was even worse. It's the Titanic, driven by what I believe is a professional frauder.
Yes and that's a key difference compared to last summer. The Merry Go Round fraud can only continue as long as cash is available. Once it stops...end of the story and a sad awakening.
These distinctions are obvious...and won't save Cytodyn, sorry.
What matters is how predictions correlate with outcomes.
Since I came in last summer, all the Cytodyn study defects I identified and wrote about on Twitter and here, the statistical defects of Cytodyn's studies as well as the patterns of constantly missed promises of the CEO, became true:
- The previous CD10 COVID study being underpowered to reach statistical significance
- The CD10 statistical failure hidden behind the to-da-moon PR
- The CEO sure to go nowhere with the various regulators (he has even advertised a conf call!)
- Various other "sure thing" promises magically failing too (Mexico, mysterious investor, ...)
- The CD12 interim not being stopped for efficacy
- The CD12 interim mortality horizon extension and "sample size reassessment" recommendation from DSMC indicating they had a serious power issue (number of patients)
- The CD12 disclosed deaths in early january indicating through my statistical simulations that they would VERY probably (>99% probability in my simulations) miss the primary endpoint
Each of these predictions were made against a massive opposition.
Yet all of these got confirmed by the respective outcomes.
A 100% hit rate.
I got a time advantage by inferring these through sparse disclosed facts, my own statistical computations and a >10 years experience of stock market frauds like Cytodyn, before the outcomes confirmed these estimates. It was very profitable.
Sorry but Cytodyn has failed yet another time, the stock price will reflect this next week and the fraud will go on with new shiny things (mech vent patients, long haulers). It is what I call a Merry Go Round fraud. Very profitable to short.
The complete lack of consideration of the company for data mining biases on a data set so tiny that we are just measuring results out of a couple hospital beds here and there is staggering. This stands zero chance with the FDA. We need WAY more than a couple datamined patients, handpicked after the facts, to accept scaling this from 63 to >320 million patients.
63 is probably less than 10 deaths in the placebo arm...so maybe a 1-3 beds difference in number of deaths compared to Leronlimab...
...and the worst is that it is the BEST subset Nader datamined for the primary endpoint...pure random chance, pure post-hoc handpicking. Give me 360 patients and I guarantee you I can find a subset over which one arm performs better than the other...there are just so many ways I could slice and dice the data...several dozen ways...I would do so until I find the best possible subset. Of course, not statistically significant, by FAR.
This will be a bloodbath next week.
It is the Constant Nader Lie model. A very successful model for predicting the outcome. As successful as the Constant Nader Failure model.
Yes this is the pattern, the Nader Constant Failure Model.
One can learn it and profit from it. It is a very profitable pattern.
AH AH AH me and my proverbial kids are enjoying this awful PR. Any statistician knows the numbers are not stat. sig. by a huge margin, because they do not take into account the multiplicity of tests performed (datamining for post-hoc endpoints that were not pre-specified). 30 tests performed? Bam multiply the pvalue by x30 to get a corrected pvalue (=corrected for the multiplicity of tests). FDA will ask for this correction and this will destroy any statistic they can come up with. 50 tests performed overall? Multiply by x50. An infinite wall.
It will be a bloodbath next week and this will be another well deserved capital win for me (and several earlier shortsellers like BuyersStrike, Google Pump and Dump, ...) given all the work to predict this before and against the market.
Truly enjoying what this company has been doing, its real mission...the SHOW.
A second PR a couple business hours after the previous one would not exactly be a sensible decision from Nader nor usual nor probable...And we all know Nader always discloses the best news and hides the worst news. Sorry but reality is that Nader is just doing his Nader thing he has done with every PR before...exaggerated his best cards, hiding his horrible other cards... and thats all. Now if anybody wants to go more long on monday, the facts disclosed indicate that would be irrational and tragic...but thats why this is a market
Cytodyn’s failure was all predictable based on past disclosed data and >50+ research papers
Details are accessible from this starting point (several threads and sub-threads so please click everywhere):
Twitter threads
Thats exactly why numbers do matter. For a phase III. It’s too late at this specific phase for medical theories (which are good on their own, I mean without any backing statistics, only for phases I and II) The role of phase III is to finally prove through hard statistics that the medical theory works, or not.
The Leronlimab MOA theory doesn't work. Next week will be an absolute bloodbath. I am happy to have followed the “science” by shortselling the stock. The maths science, that is.
Third time I short sell it and, like the 2 previous times last summer, will make a bundle out of it.
GLTA
Ok for non statisticians out there I will explain the point:
let’s assume you have a trial with 1 patient per arm. One Leronlimab patient. One placebo patient. Lets assume, out of pure chance, the Leronlimab arm’s patients survived and the placebo’s arm patient died. Bam you obtain a -100% mortality reduction in favor of Leronlimab. Champaign! Excepted...it is just pure noise because the probability to obtain such a value assuming this is just chance (null hypothesis) is huge. Redoing this trial you could end up with a 0% reduction or even a +100% increase. Because we dont have enough patients to cancel out the noise.
This is what statistical significance is all about: discarding noise.
This is exactly what I studied today based this time on the 63 disclosed patients. The noise is still huge. Getting a -25% reduction, or a +25% increase on the other side is VERY likely, and in many scenarios MOST likely. I could not find a single scenario where it is unlikely. And this doesn't even deal with the datamining performed by Cytodyn (they have given here the BEST outcome they found, so the pvalue is severely biased as it is the best pvalue out of dozens of them...pretty bad “champion” case).
The reason is simple: 63 patients is way too small to distinguish between pure chance (Leronlimab is saline) and a real effect. They need WAY MORE than that.
This is why the DSMC requested the new additional 75% interim to perform, I quote Nader Pourhassan, a “sample size reassessment”. They knew and communicated the issue way back then in October! But Nader refused that, and lost precious time now. Now everything has to be redone. Thats what I have written on this board many times, warning about this DSMC bad omen . “Sample size reassessment” is a dreaded word for any statistician...
Nope it is correct. I simulated every possible scenario (mortality % and patient split across arms) and sorry, but nowhere is there statistical signifiance. Huge impact of noise on the numbers. -24% deaths seems impressive but is in reality only a 2-4 deaths between arms. Could happen on one arm or the other due to pure chance alone. And that's all these simulated scenarios show. And I don't even talk about the impact of data mining on p-values significance... they don't stand any chance in front of the FDA specialists. It's game over.
AH AH AH this is just the normal broadcasting of PRs. Like every PR. Not a Bloomberg article. No human was involved in any of this, anywhere.
Just a database copied into another database, as the PR business goes. BusiniessWire has deals and automated copies on various websites. Guess what, the PR will also appear like every PR on Yahoo Finance, Google News, etc...
I think that illustrates perfectly how desperate Cytodyn is.
AH AH AH
We already know the results: Nader always shares the best possible news he could find and hides the rest. Always. Read back his 50+ PRs over the last couple years. It's always like that. In 100% of the PR.
So we know everything he has not disclosed in this PR is much worst. Primary endpoint failed. All secondary endpoints failed. All of them. Severe subpopulation failed. Completely. Nothing to expect there. Through data mining he found (out of pure luck, because when you datamine and perform hundreds of tests you always find through pure luck a good-enough test, it's random chance on large scale) a fake signal. Pure data mining.
Nader is VERY predictable, because this is the same story repeating over and over in 50+ PRs. Read them. And compare.
Excepted any statistician that knows what the p-value means knows that -24% over such a tiny group of patients is completely fictitious, for 2 reasons:
- This is just random noise. We are talking 2 to 4 deaths there maximum. The probability under the null hypothesis to get 2 less (or 2 more!) deaths with Leronlimab than with placebo is huge, way more than 5 or 10%. We are talking 20 to 50% p-value there, i.e., pure anecdotal chance. Take any group of 63 patients in exactly the same conditions and you could end up with -24%, +33%, +10%, -5%, -10%, +20% impact of Leronlimab on mortality... with such tiny groups we are just in the area where the number means nothing, pure lotto.
-It has NOT been penalized for multiplicity testing (=data mining). That is, Cytodyn presented the BEST number they could find over many (multiple) tests. The more statistical tests performed the higher the influence of noise. Let me perform 1000 tests and I will VERY probably come back with a p-value of 0,1% on the best test I could find, out of pure chance. That's why penalties have to be applied to account for this. E.g using Bonferoni or Holm-Bonferonni (but this is just a simple example, in reality their methods are probably more complex and may make it even worse as they were not expecting this outcome, methods that target a specific endpoint have much higher penalties when you end up looking for a new, unexpected endpoint), the p-value shall be penalized by x20 or more to correct for this ... even 1% p-value (before correction for data-mining) would end up at an equivalent 20%...far from stat. sig.
It's game over.
Ockham razor principle - Cytodyn has just failed the trial. If it's not absolutely and simply obvious from the PR (it is I believe but this is only my experience having worked 20 years in financial markets and 10 years hunting for stock frauds like Cytodyn) the stock insiders friends & family over the last 4 weeks (-40%) as well as the stock market over next week (expect -20 to -50%) will make it clear.
The PR gives enough statistical data to realize this is pure data mining. I did the computation today, whatever the ratios chosen for the various missing elements, under all possible scenarios, the trial failed and failed by a LOT. And these were the best, or least worst, facts Nader could come up with in the PR...handpicked post-hoc endpoints that were NOT part of the study design. Not acceptable for a phase III whose goal is not to refine a medical theory or to explore what could happen but to finally confirm a treatment works before unleashing it on million of patients. These datamined numbers are bad...as predicted Leronlimab acts no differently than saline, very expensive saline, and the stock price action will follow the CD10 course. History is just repeating, this was the same last August.
Excepted now the company is fully loaded with toxic loans, its toxic lender is fully loaded with convertible debt that can be dumped at a low price on the market, private investors are fully loaded with warrants they could (and should) dump above $3, and the ex-chairman of the board has million shares yet to be sold, he has just started. That's many, many actors who did not have these incentives to sell last August. Meanwhile the company has no cash to finance its unsustainable cash burn.
Monday and Tuesday will be a bloodbath.
Just waking up to that great failure.
Bravo Cytodyn, didn’t disappoint me. The same company that breaks every promise and misses every trial.
0 out of 5 endpoints met. Exactly what I had predicted, and many more skilled shortsellers had predicted before me. I drew my insights from >100 worldwide research studies that were all consistently showing that this trial was facing an uphill battle that was unwinnable, like the failed CD10 trial before.
As for the critical subpopulation, this is a textbook example of datamining for any student in statistics: they datamined a coincidence that is the result of chance. Let me explain: 63 patients is a tiny set and as such a 25% deviation of their mortality rate on one side or the other is EXTREMELY likely to occur just through random chance alone. For these 63 patients, whatever the placebo mortality baseline we assume (20 to 66% if you wish) and whatever the split between arms (20/80 to 50/50) I end up with p-values that dont support anything else than random chance everytime. Not statistically significant by far.
There is zero chance the regulators approve Leronlimab based on these Lotto numbers. At best, they will authorize Cytodyn to burn cash in yet another trial or extension that will take a year to complete. It took 9 months to get these 63 patients, it will take at least as much to add 100 or 150 assuming current hospitalization and mortality rates are stable in the US. But they are not: they are crashing down due to mass vaccine campaigns everywhere in the US so Cytodyn missed its « window of opportunity ». Worst case, regulators ignore Cytodyn’s demands like they did for CD10. Remember the 50 patients interim that got ignored (zero communication). Remember the patients resizing analysis requested by the DSMC that got ignored by management. It was all a show.
This proves everything I have written on the statistical side.
Now on the business side I have also written that I believe this company is a stock market fraud whose real objective is self-enrichment of its insiders. Everything they have been doing over the last years, and in CD12 in particular. Dumping shares before trial completion. Overcommunicating even small successes while hiding important pieces of bad news from their shareholders. This will continue next week as Nader is pivoting into Long Haulers. It’s a fraud engine that will never get anything approved anywhere. Reread this PR with this framework in mind. Nader is anything but certainly not transparent, the 3-4 key metrics are missing from this PR. It’s on purpose, to prevent non-statisticians (that dont know how to workaround these gaps) from running the numbers.
Every OTC company has PR/IR firms indeed.
But >15 communication/PR/IR/promotion firms declared only in 1 year, that's something.
Just scroll through the disclosures on OTC Markets website for other companies. Cytodyn is way ahead. And we are speaking about OTC companies, the land of the pump & dump, which precisely tend to have a LOT of communication compared to their tiny operations.
The difference lies in the numbers and the intensity. More Proactive videos than updates on the clinicaltrials official website. More "outstanding" and "promising" PRs than most biotech firms out there. This company operates as a Cult: promotion and insiders self enrichment are THE major corporate activity.
Just in the previous disclosures! That's how they started the Leronlimab COVID fairy tale in 2020.