Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
2020 for full evaluation yes, 2H18 or 2019 for appropriate value shown on our evaluation sheet, i.e. $7 - $9 for 30% Combo discount and 40% Mono discount.
After Combo approval the discount shall be reduced to 10% default value and having more financial details at hand we can correct the numbers.
THERF got approved, produce and sell .. step by step running up her evaluation ladder.
We will see
buck- you could easily read the facts out of my reply or any posts with tons of information sitting in this forum.
But if reading comprehension or connecting the dots is an issue, I truly cannot help. IMHO investors needs to be partly detectives and also a bit expert in the field company is operating.
Of course, this is not required for day trading, which this stock might be not suitable for.
Your post simply ignores everything, which I call blatant.
Good luck
d0lph- wise words
Indeed, such things in life are really material.
I myself am also not the youngest, over 50 already and surely made my ways in life with family.
That being said, I don't base my investment on social media platforms, but on own DD. Thanks to this board here,
I found much more information - true gems from you, misiu, saltz and related. Exceptional quality, but I don't expect it.
My patience with Pro 140 is set into 2020, while expecting 2H18 or 2019 a significant change of financials.
And no matter what some clowns say here, I will just hold.
Only a failure of trial or a major management failure could prove me wrong, so far this is out of the picture.
Note that I posted details about THERF's dip before its steady uptrend into approval earlier.
Therefor, I thank you all for your valuable information here.
And our dear clowns may keep going for entertainment, even though it clutters the information flow.
But it is a public forum and you cannot have just golden posts while gaining attention on the market (hint hint).
Good luck to us.
bucks- no reason, just sell
it's just a presentation of scientific primary endpoint data of combo pivotal trial, sort of like a clock at 5 to 12 before the big gong. It is nothing.
Then the millions of shares diluting the value from $11.39/sh down to $8.50'ish per share is just horrible.
Company should just sack and pack right before the finishing line, because we shareholder have waited a few years.
Next time we shall just invest in MoviePass alike deals which has a much shorter time to bankruptcy than the average 9 years in biotech.
/sarcasm can be kept if found (o8>
Asset Value Play? Thoughts ..
(Using OS 54M)
MCAP today is only
- $27.0M @ 50c today
- $37.8M @ 70c
- $48.6M @ 90c
- $54.0M @ $1
- $81.0M @ $1.50 cheap buyout target
Enterprise Value (EV), given $101.27M Total Debt and $74.47M Cash
- $ 53.8M @ 50c
- $ 64.6M @ 70c
- $ 75.4M @ 90c
- $ 80.8M @ $1
- $105.8M @ $1.50 cheap buyout target
Accumulated Losses for NOLs over $200M
EGL-002 Development Costs around $80M
NASDAQ Global Market Equity Standard would require $10M equity, company has a $33M equity deficit today and hence would require $43M to become equity compliant.
Following two scenarios take into account that company has explicitly stated to consider sales of assets and company on last 10-K and 10-Q. This has been known for a few quarters. Sadly it didn't happen as of today, but maybe the stock price was just not low enough yet to allow a sales for a low stock price multiple of 3? At 50 cents a $1.50 buyout or $60M EGL-002 asset sale seems to be feasible and shareholder would not revolt anymore.
Cheap Buyout Speculation
One speculation here would be that one entity picks up whole company for cheap, enjoying the NOLs and assets. As visible above NOLs outweighs debt almost by 100% and EV is indeed very cheap now.
At $1.50 per share or $105.8M EV buyout price a suitor would enjoy the company for free, assuming she can utilize roughly 50% of the NOLs.
Cheap Asset Sales
Company now willing to sell EGL-002 for around $60M at depressed stock price, would immediately cure the listing compliance and renders company virtually or almost debt free.
$60M for EGL-002 would be a 25% discount to assumed development costs and surely a deep cut at perceived value.
+++
Whatever it is .. maybe this was the plan all along?
A value speculation, while company was unable to properly monetize its assets until today.
Status update?
Company is now late on its 1Q18 10-Q as well, NT 10-Q filed.
We expect company needs to file the audited 4Q17 10-K before the 1Q18 10-Q first, so that may take a little while since they changed their auditor recently.
They have about 30 more days of the 60 days grace perdiod, last time they exceeded the initial 60 days and all was OK.
While they are a late filer as of now (10-K), they cannot issue new shares. We are unsure whether they can release material positive news until they are current. This is not a written rule, but probably not seen positive.
.. just the usual waiting
Evaluation & 30dma 20c Compliance Update
Evaluation
Note that only 6% market-size penetration has been used and as soon as phase 3 starts, the 30% BPX-01 discount shall be applied. As of now, maybe 40% discount still applies. Regardless, current MCAP is way undervalued in this regard due to incomplete financing, which is expected to be closed within 2Q18 via partnership.
- 2018-02-10 first discussion
- 2018-02-12 first spreadsheet $1.06 (half-) - $3.19 (full market) PT
- 2018-05-04 current spreadsheet $1.09 (half-) - $2.19 (full market) PT
30dma 20c Compliance on 6/1/18
30dma period is from 4/19 - 5/31 inclusive, 30 trading sessions.
As of closing today, we would require a 0.18542 average for the remaining 10 trading sessions to reach the 20c 30dma goal.
We know that no such specific rule exist on NYSE MKT, but more a fuzzy sustainable minimum stock price.
Company agreed that there exists some leeway in this stock price goal, so as long there is enough reason to believe an uptrend is reasonable and persisting, stock price sustainable, exchange shall give the green light.
However, as shown in 5/14 30dma chart, a 19c average until 6/1 would satisfy the 30dma 20c goal. Considering all upcoming catalysts, evaluation and fact that 20c Warrants are not selling below strike, this should be good enough.
- 2018-05-11 Convo with Company about the fuzzy compliance
(spreadsheet)
-Scoot 100% Sure they must complete the job.
Of course company must complete the job, hence they need some leeway in AS. BTW, they even hinted not to use the additional shares as of know, which also directs us to believe a higher price is earmarked.
Note to CFO: How about non-convertible preferred shares?
Regardless, you surely have an evaluation in mind, if not - take ours as posted here quite so often. The full dilution is built into the price, as you can read (if you can lol, coldturd..).
So even at 50c the PT is high above.
D0lph et al.: The trolls are coming again, hilarious.
$2 - $3 soon, the rest later on - correct.
Validation of the whole investment, Pro 140 + Company is due after disclosing PE data. If management is not completely lazy, they should be able to monetize some of the assets to fund the whole show.
Good luck
Evaluation & 30dma 20c Compliance
Evaluation
Note that only 6% market-size penetration has been used and as soon as phase 3 starts, the 30% BPX-01 discount shall be applied. As of now, maybe 40% discount still applies. Regardless, current MCAP is way undervalued in this regard due to incomplete financing, which is expected to be closed within 2Q18 via partnership.
- 2018-02-10 first discussion
- 2018-02-12 first spreadsheet $1.06 (half-) - $3.19 (full market) PT
- 2018-05-04 current spreadsheet $1.09 (half-) - $2.19 (full market) PT
30dma 20c Compliance on 6/1/18
We know that no such specific rule exist on NYSE MKT, but more a fuzzy sustainable minimum stock price.
Company agreed that there exists some leeway in this stock price goal, so as long there is enough reason to believe an uptrend is reasonable and persisting, stock price sustainable, exchange shall give the green light.
However, as shown in 5/14 30dma chart, a 19c average until 6/1 would satisfy the 30dma 20c goal. Considering all upcoming catalysts, evaluation and fact that 20c Warrants are not selling below strike, this should be good enough.
- 2018-05-11 Convo with Company about the fuzzy compliance
- 2018-05-14 19c avg until 6/1 satisfactory for 20c 30dma
- 2018-05-15 30dma
misiu- excellent, thank you
what might be also notable is that FDA granted IZ ODD
30dma chart as posted by 01
besides current reversal play with bullish engulfing and
drying out supply below 22 cents (20c Warrants + 10%),
the 30dma chart shows that even a stock price of 19 cents would be enough to maintain the 20 cents 30 day average closing price on 6/1.
Please note my earlier (twitter) post that this isn't even a hard requirement by NYSE MKT, as confirmed by company.
Since catalysts are many, most 20c Warrants converted and a sell below a 10% minimum profit only reasonable for shorts, we would say that we are golden here.
Catalysts are
- Partnership in 2Q18
- BPX-04 phase 1+2 data 6/30 NCT03050086
- Maybe some filed patent(s) get approved
- ...?
Spreadsheet
I_luv- I would prefer to go to ASM two days later if at all, the only thing that matters (o8>
But maybe, if you catch Nader & Co there, you might be able to squeeze a big smile out of 'em about the PE data?
On Watchlist of Life Science Leader
https://www.lifescienceleader.com/resource/companies-to-watch
https://www.lifescienceleader.com/doc/companies-to-watch-cytodyn-0001
Since April 13th, we had this?
Credibility bottom has been reached around 2016 with the Sheen 'Pr', people criticizing this as a PR stunt not being helpful with FDA relations and having not shown any new data.
So we are surely beyond this point by now, i.e. Sheen is quiet and FDA relations excellent plus data updated last year on CROI and soon at ASM 6/9 - 6/11.
Maybe some investors understand the 'professional silence' in this regard better, aka let the data and professionals speak for Pro 140.
Good luck
blue- that is the attractiveness of the current SP valley here, below 70c, was even at and below 50c for very brief moments, IMHO.
I call it the once in a lifetime chance for little retail to get the very nice prices, but one really might need to have done proper DD to know and feel it.
TA wise, stock is about to complete the reversal sign, as it has done so in a very slow manner. It already shows bullish pattern and shall complete the reverse H&S ('W' pattern'). We will see at around 80 cents neckline soon, I believe.
Reason for the expected breakout has been laid out here multiple times in science, events and evaluation numbers.
Good luck to us
PS: Validation by partnership or strong institution support is expected - The last science validation step shall be disclosed on 6/9 at ASM (post 6/11 for everyone).
No Ryan, AFAWeK, on 6/1 the 30 day MA should be >= 20c give or take some leeway with NYSE MKT IF stock is well behaving upwards. Correct @biopharmx ?
— Sandra Fein (@FeindraSan) May 4, 2018
CYDY SI -21%
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=cydy&submit=Short+Quote%E2%84%A2
Just got a heads up from peer 01.
Therefor they are doing the required trade before it happens.
'Our' Best Analyst ..
Raghuram Selvaraju M.B.A., Ph.D.
https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=43249540&privcapId=25231031
via Rodman & Renshaw, now H.C. Wainwright & Co,
giving a low $1.60 in 2016 and now a low $2 in 2018.
This professional is from the biotech industry
and got financial analyst support from his colleague Yi Chen.
I liked reading their 2016 analysis and hope to get my hands on the 2018 update. If anybody of you have it, please let me know how to receive it - thank you. I have no PM via ihub sadly.
They wouldn't have covered this pink sheet company if not having Pro 140, that's for sure.
Let's see how our late breaking data trades when released 6/9 first and to everybody on 6/11 when ASM Microbe closes.
Spread getting more tight every day.
Good luck.
Emergcy- nice fairy tales (o8>
You seem to be new to the stock market?
No good news last 2 years, you are entertaining us, science community and probably BP is ROTFL about this statement (o8>
Hope you didn't sell your other biotech shares before the price correction jumps, like THERF et al.
But good luck fearmongering, you might get it a penny cheaper.
Need Rodman & Renshaw 2018 latest analysis $2 PT to compare with the 2016 $1.60 PT and our own evaluation.
Can somebody make this available here for a while?
Thank you.
z_smith- glad you came to same conclusion as we
Yes, debated this today a lot with one researcher (Diff field though, algae compounds).
This conclusion is covered by the CD4 count and HIV-1 progression and very well displayed by the article we both reference.
Misiu also stated this a lot: The earlier Pro-140 the better and may they never progress into the X4-tropic dilemma with a damaged immune system.
Company requires a high > 300 CD4 count, implying R5-tropism and more early stage HIV-1 (working immune system), it seems to be a harmonic there.
My research peer also believes that there is no basis for pulling such a thesis out of your hat, that the HIV-1 changes co-receptor tropism just because you block the R5-tropism.
This is covered by CROI's poster (2y patients) as well as for that named Berlin patient w/ marrow transplant and CCR5 suppressor (something), which is still 'clean'.
And well, in case you have a dual-tropism here, Pro 140 can do its trick on the major CCR5 co-receptor, causing most of the troubles while still being 'healthy'.
Therefor CYDY's 'numbers' are way too low, but who will complain?
It is more like 90% R5-tropic HIV-1 new infections, esp if transmitted sexually. Then your mentioned higher MDR-2 'cut', I don't even want to put this in the evaluation now - would show a 10 fold dislocation compared to what we already have. Then you might have noticed that our evaluation only uses a 8% penetration of that already understated market size. We were really working hard to make it look bad, but PT is still like 1300% above current price.
Yes of course to: 1) 2)
3) and 4) is also puzzling.
Phd peer wonders why the heck shouldn't it be used as a first in line treatment? She doesn't know the FDA process & politics. But just by the working method and data known so far, 'Why not?'
So that will be our next long process after Mono, we think.
Yes, sadly there seems to be way too much politics and influence by competing bigger businesses in this process.
Regardless, the first baby step is almost completed.
Apologies for the more emotional response, but its end of the day and the needle still hasn't moved (o8>
But what are a few month waiting from here on? Nothing.
the drama continues ..
Disclaimer: I exited this stock mostly a while ago already, last chunk after this ER.
Ongoing Dilution
misiu- thx, this just caused us to complete
a dead spot in our DD, i.e. the 'X4-tropic takeover' thesis.
Turns out this is not the case as emphasized in our reply.
On the contrary, if patient can be saved early and can keep high CD4 count and hence the immune system, they may not progress into this class.
EDIT: Also shown in CROI et al., 2 year patients didn't show a change of co-receptor tropism.
We also came to same conclusion: The more the merry.
Especially since nobody really knows the long term outcome of any of these therapies yet - bloody young they are.
Looking forward reading your IZ convo here, thank you!
Ricard- R5- and X4-Tropism, Safety Profiles
Ricard, your replies really caused more reading and checking with my science peers. Thank you!
R5- and X4-Tropism
gestalt- great thoughts, we have also debated
Saltz- a late-breaking session must be novel,
it is not merely an extension to the usual deadline of the venue, i.e. being submitted late after poster deadline.
Novel, ground-breaking etc are usual attributes to late-breaking.
Therefor, ASM having accepted CD02 PE Data as a late-breaking session points to very satisfactory results above PE expectations.
Couldn't find ASM's policy, but see here https://www.ecco-org.eu/Events/Past-conferences/EORTC_NCI_AACR_2014/Late-Breaking-Abstracts-Policy-and-Regulations
This term is common in the field, my scientist peers replied.
Saltz- thank you
Nader will get it via my peer 01, but since you have the best contact .. maybe you can give him a heads up as well.
So far they didn't complain about the last analysis.
I agree, company has chosen lowest possible market size outcome, not pumping - compared to R&R and even IZ (on par w/ IZ).
I also completely agree with your CD02 Combo assessment and especially where CYDY is being traded/evaluated right now, Combo will give it a sure boost.
See, the segmented evaluation calls for $1.16/sh for combo alone at current stage of development. When it hits market, the 30% discount goes down to 10% and the low 46% margin as well as low 8% market penetration will be re-evaluated. All this needs to be considered. The $1.16/sh for combo alone is cheap.
The pressure on BP to make a move is getting on for sure. Combo might not be the trigger indication, but as you hinted, validates Mono as well. The longer they wait, the more expensive it gets. In this sense, even BP will act forward looking by a few years.
One more tiny but important catalyst: CD02 PE Data Paper around ASM Microbe.
Good Luck to us
Ricard- thx, it's Ma'am (o8>
So still a great deal for THERF and IZ, we like that.
Both will strive, IZ and Pro 140. Our scientific review still opines that Pro 140 has the more favorable safety profile.
Regardless, it is great to have both. Both very young to the market.
No worries about the R5 profile, we have chosen very low proportions in the model good for a significant price correction.
As our ongoing debate now goes, trigger moment for BP on Pro140 might be the validity of the Mono indication starting with Combo success.
Thank you for your contributions, very much appreciated.
PS: Yes, trial inclusion criteria was loosen just lately, which cause a lot of enrollment delays.
PS-2: Trust me, this is not against IZ, this is pro Pro 140 while appreciating IZ. All good.
Ricard's deleted supportive argument
It was very supportive for CYDY/Pro140, glad I quoted him!
Even if in case he didn't mean to support this here, it surely was, after thinking about the fine details.
That's often the funny side of arguments.
Well, this post might also get deleted, since it is a meta debate on the debate (o8>
Ricard- excellent information!
Ricard- thx for your reply, replying
(o8> is my old school smiling emoji w/ glasses & a hat on (o8>
to all: eval review request
Thinking that is always natural when posting here (o8>
Again, we moved to the lowest imaginable valuation based on Pro 140 trial success (Combo discount still 30%). That's why we chose lower multiples here.
Upsides of this are lower discount, higher margins and of course higher MDR-2 percentage and market penetration.
So this is really the bottom line, we think.
Do you agree? Other ideas?
Thank you.
Evaluation Update (10% MDR-2)
Most conservative model for Pro 140 with lowest market expectation.
2018-04-19 - Previous Evaluation
HIV-1 CCR5 Market Size Basics
Including comparison with Rodman & Renshaw 2016 (R&R '16) evaluation model and company's numbers.
CYDY and R&R are based on formula:
- CCR5 Pts = HIV-1 Pts * 70% CCR5
- Combo Pts = CCR5 Pts * 50% ART * X% MDR-2
- Mono Pts = CCR5 Pts * Y% SupVL
HIV-1 Pts for 2020 is around 1.3M, similar in any model.
CYDY's March '18 presentation used ever lowest numbers:
- X = 10% MDR-2 pts (combo)
- Y = 17% SubVL pts (mono)
CYDY's earlier presentation used
- X = 45% MDR-2 pts (combo)
- Y = 57% SubVL pts (mono)
R&R Oct2016 Model used
- X = 30% MDR-2 pts (combo)
- Y = 17% SubVL pts (mono)
Interestingly 20% MDR-2 risk has been mentioned in https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/513281
However, we may shall use 10% MDR-2 as the lowest expectation for now, as stated by company. This has been also used for MDR-3 IZ http://www.idsociety.org/Press_Release_10_28_2016/
In reality, we assume MDR-2 proportion is about 20% minimum and hence at least doubles the CD02 Combo market value.
It might need also further discussion, why Pro 140 shall not be used as a first in line HIV-1 CCR5 medication, MDR-0, knowing its best in class safety, AEs, efficiency and even self-administered economy. Such discussion might be right after the CD03 Mono trials.
Basics for Multiples
- TaiMed https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financial-highlights/4147.TWO (also shows industry + sector multiples)
- Discount rates in drug development 2011 http://www.avance.ch/avance_biostrat_discount_survey.pdf(edited)
- Discount Rates for Biotech Companies 2008 http://www.avance.ch/newsletter/docs/discount_1.pdf
- Valuation of Your Early Drug Candidate 2011 https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.michbio.org/resource/resmgr/BioToolBox_-_Commercialization/Valuation_of_Drug_Candidate.pdf
Discussion
R&R '16 only used 8-12% Combo market penetration, a 20-25% Mono market penetration and a 90% gross margin.
To be most conservative we just utilize 8% Combo, 16% Mono and 24% GvHD market penetration for now.
R&R '16 also used discount of only 40% (Chances of success 60%) overall, we have adjusted this to 70% success chance (30% discount) due to late stage and achieved PE, while using a slightly higher discount for Mono of 45%.
If you apply the roughly 24% royalty partnership model of R&R'16 to $8.52/sh, you would end up with current R&R '18 evaluation slightly above $2 for today.
However, this model shall reflect general Pro 140 market value for any transaction, including the main priority: buyout.
DFC Evaluation based on Market Penetration & Multiples
Notables:
- Even lower than TaiMed's post BLA Combo value
- Using high over the top developing biotech discounts for Mono and Combo
Source
- LibreOffice Spreadsheet
Evaluation WIP ..
2018-04-19 - Previous Evaluation Update
We went through the Rodman & Renshaw 2016 evaluation model and company's old and recent numbers. Company's old numbers based on a floating screenshot here (lol) and recent from March '18.
Also checked some MDR-2 proportions.
CYDY and R&R are based on formula:
CCR5 Pts = HIV-1 Pts * 70% CCR5
Combo Pts = CCR5 Pts * 50% ART * X% MDR-2
Mono Pts = CCR5 Pts * Y% SupVL
X = 10% MDR-2 pts (combo)
Y = 17% SubVL pts (mono)
X = 45% MDR-2 pts (combo)
Y = 57% SubVL pts (mono)
X = 30% MDR-2 pts (combo)
Y = 17% SubVL pts (mono)
3/6 THERF up on approval, CYDY down
We analyzed IZ vs Pro 140 earlier, i.e. IZ is MDR3 only, Combo only and cannot be self administered, less viral supression and more (S)AEs etc.
Now having a fresh look at both charts, CYDY ran up on PE PR to 80c'sh 2/16, dipped back to 65c only to recover to above 75c.
But since 3/6, IZ's US approval date, the big plunge to 50c started.
Reasons were the 50c TO Warrants, but maybe also success of the competitor?
In the latter case I would call IZ's success a blessing due to described advantages of Pro 140 and hence we shall follow and outperform THERF+TaiMed's lead by example (o8>
d0lph- hilarious, thx for sharing
Judgmental service people making a difference (o8>
Glad you got some of the lows these days!
THERF SP Movements and CYDY Comparison
This was worth a $1.50 per share..
trding- agreed, partially
Surely the 'golden quarter' call didn't help at all (o8>
Deep long breath - however, sometimes things do take a 'little' longer. This here is now around one year overdue.
Stock price does not pad long time investors on the shoulder, right. It does not acknowledge and validate the investment theory at this point yet, right.
My friends in science work around 3+ years for one Phd thesis, others are in engineering on long term projects also for years. Doing similar stuff day in and day out.
Yes, the well known 'burn out' syndrome happens when performing on a task for years, not yet feeling the achievement.
All of you who have studied may know this, you never really have the feel of being done with your work when hitting bed.
One psychological treatment for some of these is to perform simple tasks in the household to have some immediate gratification, like for cleaning or cooking - don't laugh, it's real (o8>
Back to Pro 140 ..
Pivotal Phase 2b/3 is about to conclude and PE has been met.
Print it out and hang this over your bed or in your car.
This is the essential investment thesis validation, regardless whether management delays your gratification and dilutes your holding a little bit. In the end, it doesn't really matter as shown.
Timing a biotech event, the price correction jump, is surely the most difficult thing to trade. Quite often it goes a bit lower right before the event, which is intended by certain parties.
This investment even is sensible, it helps moving forward a great treatment for HIV-I CCR5 patients.
For me this is a good sleep investment portion of my portfolio at least.
And if the market is working its course - the science already did, Pro 140's value will be appreciated.
6/9 ASM and the paper will verify Pro 140 CD02 Combo is fit for commercialization having the full PE data.
That CD02 Combo value alone is over $1.66B MCAP or $3/sh fully diluted today, using additional 162M shares @ 50c, 505M OS. Find our evaluation earlier.
It will be recognized at some point in time - no worries.
And once CD02 Combo gets traction with PE data on 6/9 ASM, the paper and the rolling BLA the latest - CD03 Mono's value will also be upgraded. At least, this is how things usually go.
The only bad thing to make this stock to go down from here would be bad data, i.e. SAE's all of a sudden and what-not. PE already have been reached.
I go 50% all the way and 50% for around 95c soon.
Good luck.