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note to self: Listen to your own predictions... lol
That being said, although I am in other bios, I think that this dilution today probably marks the bottom of the stock, and getting in here at 0.82 (and maybe adding 1/2 at 0.78) will let you sell at 0.98 the day before the pdufa.
no position.
Well although I had to watch a few of those bio predictions come true, I still am up almost 100% YTD in my port... Of course January was a hugely bullish one for stocks, and bios especially. And pride goeth before the fall :P
much better than being down 15% last year... sigh...
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ECYT is one of the ones I am looking at as a fundamentally undervalued play, but timeline is a bit hazy.
Did not play THLD recently... sigh...
the crazy thing is that on Dec 30 I made 16 bio predictions I sent to some of my trading buddies. THLD hitting 4$ in 2012 was one of them. About 5 of them are up 50-70%, another 5 up 30-40%, and 5 up like 15%. One was down 10%.
'We' are not trying BPAX at all... 'we' should have held our 15K of TVIX at 13.90 from premarkets... ugh...
BP AX 0.77... what a terd...
Thx. I do think there is a decent chance of an approval in NGSX, but might as well take the easy 2K$.
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Sold 20K I bought at 0.78 at 0.87, +1800$. Couldn't get in in size yesterday... sigh.
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Ya know, this is freaking impossible to trade. Sold 14K shares, +980$
Bought small this p/m... Where's the volatility?
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I think the lesson I learned here was that when the delisting news came, I was watching closely to see if there was going to be a gap down. When it didn't and was at 0.75 AH that day, I knew it was going to run more. Too many people waiting on gap down to re-enter.
So then I had to fight all those people to get back in.
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I'm not willing to take a chance here. Does it probably run back up into pdufa? likely, it's 0.87 now and maybe a day from now at 0.80 I might buy in.
What kills me is that I had 585K shares at 0.65 and sold about half at like 0.66, lol. Was waiting on a gap down on delisting warning news that never came (yes, the news came, but the gap down didn't).
then I had to jump all over the place trying to rebuy.
Anyway, do I think this gets FDA approval? quite likely. but I am not willing to risk it. too many people in from like 0.45
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Sorry, that was me selling, lol... sold 380K premarket at 1.07 ave from about 0.75 ave
http://www.bilderload.com/daten/20120207bpaxIYXWN.jpg
What a blast from the past... of course I had sold it months ago.
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Tanker NGSX on possibly bad briefing doc release.
FYI, BP-AX lawsuit was settled, but you have to look on the Bio-T-Gel webpage to see that. IMO this has a decent chance of approval in a couple of weeks but I am a partial long here (so I am biased)
http://www.biosantepharma.com/BioTGel.php
"Shortly after filing of the Bio-T-Gel NDA by Teva, Teva was sued by Abbott Pharmaceuticals for patent infringement. The patent litigation was settled in December, 2011. Terms of the settlement are not disclosed."
Also, form 4's were filed for more than 1M shares of BP-AX in 1/25. News hit on 1/27 afterhours.
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1023024.htm
IMO this is similar to the form 4's that were filed for IN-SM on 12/23, at 3.03$.
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1104506.htm
Stock hit 5.5$ less than a month later.
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discl: Partial long
Thanks. I needed a big one. Now to find the next one.
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Sweet, sold my INSM. Took the day off and went snowboarding.
+101 in Etrade, +16 in Bofa.
http://www.bilderload.com/bild/165055/insmG3RUK.jpg
Onto the next one.
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TVIX rocking...
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I call TVIX bottom at 23 here... target 35 in 1 month.
Sold BPAX, +1300$ at 0.565
EK unreal... should have realized that their restructuring today meant BK was not in the cards... for now.
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Bought decent sized partial posn on INSM... I figure they have a good chance of restarting their trials, but we will see...
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Holding small posn from 0.505, bought yesterday... may have more legs in it, we will see... PDUFA for a different drug is mid feb.
Thanks, it really got there alot faster than I thought :)
NFLX needs 20$ more to keep me from being a liar...
ECYT may be close to bouncing... mini volume spike. Partial position. 3.26 now.
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FEED halted at 0.389. While I appreciate all the DD that was posted about this stock, it does serve to remind me that sometimes, no matter how good things sound, a black swan can come out of nowhere and change everything. It is sad that it has come to this, but at this point, I am starting to become very wary of any DD posted about a Chinese company.
We'll see how it all turns out, but I would be absolutely shocked if it does not gap down significantly when it reopens, whenever that may be.
Never had a position, but was tempted many times.
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FEED: This is where it doesn't matter how undervalued anyone thinks a stock is because all of it may be a scam... I know a poster on another board, who I otherwise really respect as a trader, who kept on averaging down, down, down, until he capitulated in the 0.40's and lower, all because he believed the company.
I am not saying that FEED is a scam, but that the price may drop significantly when (if) it reopens...
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FEED -26% on bounce watch
After bouncing to 0.68, looks like it is going to be in play monday, should be interesting.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alexza-retains-lazard-to-explore-strategic-options-2011-12-16
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Don't worry, it's really hard to offend me. Sometimes I get way to optimistic, so it's good to hear more rational opinions to keep me in line. However, it is going to take a while for sentiment to swing back pro-NFLX, and IMO if/when it does (over the next few months) then it could take it back to 100. Much as people never thought NFLX would get to 300 when it was at 150, but it did anyway.
We'll see...
Wait, are you being contrarian to the general consensus, are being contrarian to the contrarian? :P
I call NFLX bounce, here at 70.00. I think it gets to 100 before it gets to 60. Also think it gets to 100 before Mar 1, 2012. We'll see...
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NGSX news, has Adcom scheduled. Will likely run due to microscopic market cap... 1.10 now. No posn. We'll see
DMND at 27 tempting...
Wow, down from 1.14 to 0.60... sheesh... I guess if anyone had listened to the actual FDA presentation rather than just looking at the headline they would have been selling too...
That being said, at 0.61 here, after closing the gap, it is probably due for a bounce to 0.68. No position.
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Actually, if you look at the cash value (69.6M$, or 63c per share), IMO you should also look at the debt they have (20.5M$, or 18c per share)...
then the value should really be 63c-18c or 45c per share, which is just above what it got to.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BPAX+Key+Statistics
Hmm...
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Good luck on the CC guys, I was too much of a wuss to buy, but maybe that was a blessing... would have bought at 48 and sold at 42, lol
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