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The information posted here, the research and opinions is wonderful. If all boards in the world were like this wouldn't it be a wonderful place. This is hands down the best and most productive site I have found for discussing stocks. There are boards out there that won't even discuss micro cap stocks, i think that is just foolish...hint hint.
There may be other great boards that charge fees for their services, I'm sure many of them are quite informative, but this community is free of charge. I for one salute just how orderly and respectful the members here are too each other.
Stocks trading is largely driven, as has been said many times, by fear and greed. These are powerful emotions and create great emotion. Especially when people are taking losses.
For myself, I trade many different strategies. I have a portion of my money in TKO, that is here for mid to long term gains based on a limited downside and good upside potential. By no means do I consider TKO a low risk stock. Despite all the positive news, TKO is still unproven in the long term to make money. There is another portion of my investment in this stock that is intended to be short term in nature. The old adage "bulls and bears make money, pigs get slaughterred" has some merit as well. Many is the investor who lost a ton on some hot tech stock after they were up a couple hundred percent becuase they could not find their way to the exit door with a profit.
The people making empassioned posts at this point most likely thought the ball was on the way out of the park when the GE partnership was announced. I had some of that exuberance myself and added to the speculative portion of my position on that news. A lot of money went into TKO in the previous 2 weeks and likely some people over extended themselves and are feeling some pain.
I hold no-one else ultimately accountable for my decisions but myself. I choose to wield the sword that cuts both ways. Now some may outright attack at such a time. It is one of those automatic responses to injury. For myself, when I question a piece of information that seems to have changed i am just looking for reasons, opinions or information. Information remains the investors most valuable commodity, and i respectfully consider this board, this community, and it's members a wonderful and valuable resource.
For the members of this board who have the financial resources to put a large investment into a speculative stock and not be concerned with short term price action, I say, as the Italians might "Salut"
I hope to be in such a position someday, but I prefer to keep a very astute hand on the pulse of my investments, short or long term at this point in my life.
Cheers and best of luck to us all.
The yahoo boards all full of vipers. Very little goes on over there that is even near productive.
It's mostly pumpers trying to encourage buying and bashers trying to encourage selling. Hell it might even be interesting if they were more creative with their posts.
I have seen good info over there from time to time, but you have to sort though so much garbage to find it.
Sonny, I am always keen to learn new ways to interpret stock action. If you friend has found a mechanism to monitor dilution I am interested to know how it works. My understanding draws other conclusions from those events, and perhaps they are not all encompassing.
Large volume with little PPS movement simply means there is strong interest in the stock. Heck look at Microsoft traded 80 million shares on Friday and moved 28 cents. Volume only means active short term interest in the stock. This can be by short term or day traders, or driven by a specific event that made the stock look especially over or under priced drawing in a lot of accumulation (buyers) or distribution (sellers) Also a 20% + movement in TKO stock in a week does not qualify as being little movement in PPS.
I will keep my eye on the outstanding share count to see if as your friend believes it has increased, although for that to account for the large drop in the stock price, it would have had to be a pretty big number of stocks. Just a 10% dilution would be an additional 5 or 6 million shares.
Agree with Sirius. No-one here is attacking GLL, Walrus etc, and I beleive most on this board have given heartfelt thank yous to them for the valuable info they do provide. What is rearing it's head here is frustration in general.
The stock market attempts to be a forward looking instrument. Stock action is dictated by where the street believes a company will be 6 months down the road, not today. Many were caught off gaurd by the stock correcting over 20% on what should have been a corner turning announcement by TKO.
I understand profit taking and it should have been completely expected at the 4.00 level. It is the nature of the markets. The breadth and size of the selloff does appear excessive though, and other things like funds and tute money, which is often believed to be smart money, exiting the stock might be of more concern. Appearance on the Reg Sho list might be of concern.
These things combined painted a scary picture. GLL and walrus initially posted some very strong language about the upcoming conference call and that it would contain guidance specifically for GE. They later posted a much softer and vague opinion of what would be on the conference call. Many on this board took the initial posts as a comfort against the negative actions in the stock.
Now we live in the real world, and I completely understand they may have misunderstood their initial information, or overstepped some bounds in posting it. I am just trying to explain the nature of the reaction on this board. For many it was the only positive we saw during the overdone selloff, and we took it in as food to ease our uncertainty in the stock action.
This company opeartes at a loss as we all know, and in reality it's stock price is high based on todays revenue vs cash burn rate. This is why some sort of revenue guidance is critical to paint the picture 6 months out that the street would use to justify, and realise a higher share price.
This could well be a 10 or 20 dollar stock in the future, but it has to be a 5 dollar stock first. The lack of guidance is just disheartening, and for a brief moment we saw some messages claiming it was coming, and it gave us hope that maybe we were ahead of the street on this one.
I understand the long term view, but this stock has seen a pattern of failed run-ups, that I haven't experienced personally, but are clearly indicated on the chart history. The fat that a loss is only on paper does not completely erase the reality of red ink staring at one on a printout.
No attacks intended here in any way. Just explaning the frustration for soft guidance at a point when it is so critical.
If you like Sonny we could do that. All the info I have shows total outstanding shares as 56.85 million. Do you agree with that figure?
As to the indicators you are using, you can look any of them up on line to find out exactly what they are based on and attempting to resolve or predict.
Anyone else with opinions on the REG SHO list? Or better yet info on if TKO is monitoring the situation?
I appreciate the vote of confidence reallybad, but I assure you most of what I know about REG SHO requirements I have read in the past two days. I already spilled the beans in my last post on most of what I have learned.
I agree it seems there should be covering near this level, but that is assuming it was legal naked short selling.
More than I ever wanted to know about the REG SHO list. I know Sirius you have mentioned you had to learn more than you ever wanted to know about stock research, and by the way, you seem to know quite a bit.
So the appearance of TKO on the REG SHO list has been nagging at me, so i had a late lunch and sat down with a glass of merlot and my old friend google to sort through some of the REG SHO list. To me it was always kinda someone elses problem until it affected shares of a company I have stock in,
First off the requirement to appear on the list is 5 consecutive trading days with a failure to delver rate of AT LEAST 10,000 shares AND greater that .5% of TOTAL SHARES OUTSTANDING. .5% of total shares outstanding in TKO would make that a minimun of 284,253 shares on the failure to deliver list for the last 5 trading days. Based on the fact they appeared on the list on Feb 8 and that looks like that would make Feb 2 the first day the stock went over the threshold.
Now according to the SEC website http://www.sec.gov/spotlight/keyregshoissues.htm
market makers and specialist must be allowed to naked short to maintain market liquidity during times of unusually high demand in thinly traded stocks. That 5 day period would appear to qualify as unusually high demand for TKO. That being the case, and assuming most of the naked shorting was of a legal nature from the specialist, they should be coming under some pressure to buy those share, or find sources to borrow them from as they become available for sale in the open market. As i read it they have 13 days.
The only thing that nags at me, is I can see there being a shortage of shares for buyers during the runup on Feb 1 and 2, however the money flow and volume indicators seem to show selling began somewhere around the 5th or 6th. For the failure to delivers to remain over the limit through to the 8th it would have to mean that most of that selling was naked shorting, or it was legal short selling and the shares have not been deliverred yet. (It is still within the legal 3 day window for shares to be deliverred) If actual selling had been going on, it seems to me the specialists should have been able to get a hold of the shares they had sold short naked.
I would hope the officers of TKO would be looking into this. Perhaps Walrus or GLL would know if it has attracted their attention. One of their many jobs is protecting shareholder value. Their recent positions on guidance, although they may have been muscled by the mighty GE machine, do leave some things to be desired. Hopefully they do not let appearance on the REG SHO list occur without asking some questions.
Thanx for the reply Walrus. Not as encouraging as I had hoped, but I won't shoot the messenger.
Enjoy your weekend.
Informative and fascinating read on naked shorting. It is two years old, but the concepts are the same.
http://www.ncans.net/byrneshort.htm
Thank you for the explanation Sirius. I had found that page but didn't realize it had the numbers updated daily. So to track daily changes you just save the end of day data every day. Valuable info.
TKO aside, hope you enjoy your weekend. We have light rain in the bay area, but it reminds me fondly of Seattle where I lived for 3 1/2 years, and it beats the heck out of the east coast cold weather. (I'm originally from PA)
Just speculation here, but perhaps the sell orders were executed as a program trade. Automatic execution if the stock reaches a certain price, or set of technical criteria.
Sirius, that is disturbing news. Institutional holders should be unconcerned with short term price fluctuations and speculator driven movements in a stock. They make their decisions based on mid to long term price targets.
Also they pulled their money out at the bottom of the correction not the top, suggesting someone must believe the spike to 4.00 may have been a top for the stock.
There is no sure way to know their reasons, but they've obviously decided they do not like the upside potential on this stock for some reason. I certainly don't like hearing that.
I can not seem to find the information you are referring to. if you'd be so kind as to point me in the right direction I'd most appreciate it.
GLL. is it possible that the CC you beleive will happen in two weeks is primarily to address guidance for the GE contract, and that formal earnings will not be announced until Mar 8. Also the link stating the Mar 8 date does state that it is unconfirmed.
i can tell you for a fact that shares to short on TKO are very hard to come by if at all. If anyone can get them it is likely only the elite brokerage houses. I tried to short some shares on Wednesday afternoon as a downside hedge against my long position and Ameritrade showed no shares available to short.
Sonny, also keep a close eye on the stock action if you are planning on buying back in. Somewhere between here and the 200 day MA, currently at 2.92 is where the stock should find hard support.
dsdetector. I have seen you post Fibonacci numbers in the past. I am always unsure of where to calculate from, ie on the reversal day to you calculate from the very brief intraday high of $4.00 of the close of $3.65. Any Fibonacci input on the current retraction?
Spot on Reallybad. Current price trend driven by speculative traders who came in over the last several weeks and are now exiting in droves with their profits.
I just would like to see the selling taper off some here. I thought it would level out on Friday, but the amount of selling indicated by the money flow, and accumulation/distribution, and OBV remained very heavy.
Sonny. No worries, you say dilution, I'll say distribution. What is important is you are reading the charts correctly and making the correct decisions based on what you see.
Have a great weekend.
Sonny. You made the right decision, for the right reason. Those are excellent indicators for judging investor sentiment. You are simply using the incorrect term to describe it. You are correct to use those indicators in the manner you are. Be careful to confirm them with price action in the stock and other indicators as well.
Sonny. Those are all excellent indicators, and indeed they all gave strong sell signals in the last week. However they are all a measure of distribution, not dilution. They indicate investor sentiment was on the sell side, and more money is exiting the stock then entering it.
I prefer the standard money flow to the Chaikan money flow. i beleive the difference is money flow is based on each transaction vs chaikan which lumps the entire days volume based on up or down at the end of day.
I think this makes money flow a quicker reacting gage, although might make it more prone for false signals short term.
If I had been watching the money flow more closely than i was i would have probably not added so aggressively to my position on the GE announcement day. I got caught up in the exitement and was afraid I'd miss the boat, but money flow clearly showed money had already begun exiting the stock a couple days ahead of the announcement. buy the rumor, sell the news scenario = speculators.
Here is my understanding, certainly not all encompassing. Naked shorting is complicated, and does in fact cause some "artificial" dillution on failures to deliver. Naked shorting causes this because no stock was ever available, or at least not actually borrowed to short. This practice is illegal, but old school practicers probably know how to disguise it to some extent. Much debate on that. Ultimately standard shorting, which is the only legal way to do it should not cause dilution because eventually the stock must be bought back to realise the position. Standard shorting will cause weakness in share price, but not dilution. That weakness in share price corrects at such time as a massive short covering occurs during a runup, known as a short squeeze.
Excessive options can cause dilution as they are exercised more stock can end up in the pool.
I'm just curious where Sonny is seeing this information. Not looking to criticize, just understand
Those posts contain charts that link direct to the big charts page as they show current data. The only indicators on them are MACD, which is a measure of short term moving average vs long term moving average, and RSI, which is a measure of short term closing price of the stock vs a longer term closing price of the stock. Also on the chart are volume, and 50,200 day MA. None of this as far as I know can be used to determine dilution.
Every technical indicator is negative. The chart pattern shows great weakness, the money flow out has been immense. All day the lows have gone lower, and the highs have been lower. The only positive right now is the large buy orders that came in at 3.08 and 3.10
For those of us that are long, we must have hope that the forthcoming guidance has some real meat to it. Watching the short term action is just going to be disheartening I'm afraid.
The GE announcement put this on the radar some. I beleive that is why volume remains high. If you watch level II the reason the stock slows on downticks is the sellers aren't willing to go to the bid level. The amount of shares for sale is absolutely huge compared to the buy interest. There was just about 30,000 shares on the sell side around 3.14-3.15. The sellers have this stock capped at the moment.
It looks to me like a lot of money still wants out of this stock, but they are trying to get the best price. The buyers are still willing to come in at the 3.08-3.10 level, but continued pressure will gradually erode that support level.
That is what I see, and I dislike it every bit as much as all of you. This would be a really nice area for me to be mistaken in.
Sonny, there are a multitude of different technical indicators in the stock world, and certainly some that I have never taken the time to look into, but my concern based on what you have previously said is you are looking at distribution, not dilution. Distribution is simply a measure of whether people are selling more, evidenced by transactions on a down tick, vs buying more, evidenced by transactions on an up tick. Dilution would be a larger amount of overall stocks entering the total pool. Option exercising is generally the only way more stocks end up in the pool other than the company issuing more.
If there is an indicator showing dilution, I would be keen to learn what it is, and it's useage.
Good morning. Slept in again. 3.10 showed good buying support and is a critical level. The 8K report today however contained no happy news. Although investors reading message boards such as these have been told guidance is forthcoming, and we have no reason not to believe that, investors who do not read these boards, and who are hungry for guidance, see an 8K that offers no financial data or requirements for it. That is where the sell pressure is coming from.
The 3.10 area will be tested again today I think, and will probably hold. However I am not confident it will hold over the next several trading days. It depends largely on just how much buying interest there is at that level. This could be the bottom of the recent correction, or just a pause. Confirmation is needed.
GLL. Are you saying Q4 revenue will double up against Q3? Or year over year will double up?
thanx in advance for all your info.
There is some buying coming in at this level. We are sitting right on the uptrend line that begins from the low of the big breakout day in December.
Oh yeah. Had my level II in the tray. Sure enough he has joined the fray. This obviously speaks to an anticipation of a permanent change in trading volume. Prior to the big pop in December average volume on this stock was around 230,000/day I believe.
So obviously the exchange believes the GE announcement will bring continued stronger trading interest in the stock. That's a plus.
Lakingspan. If you have some time please explain what indicators are showing you dilution and why.
I believe the stock is weak for two reasons. Absolutely longs have left the stock in droves the last two days. It was short term money taking profits.
The reason they took profits was the stock hit a major resistance area from past congestion, and there has been absolutely no guidance from TKO to prove that the stocks future valuation justifies a continued runup. Speculation only goes so far. Sort term money was able to pull anywhere from 25 to 50% profits out of this position in a matter of weeks depending on where they came in and exited. That is a nice run in any ones book.
It is easy to become complacent over 40 or 50 cents in price movement in a cheap stock, but you must look at the percentages. If this stock had just run from $23 to $40 in 6 weeks everyone would be saying wow, what an amazing run. It definitely rose too fast without guidance. No wonder people took their profits. From a percentage perspective that is no different from what just happened the last 6 weeks.
Thanx. I appreciate your kind words. Your input on how the mechanics work has been valuable as well. This is a great board as people giving valuable contributions are to numerous to name. A couple of the real gems here though are people like GLL and Walrus who have been able to actually hint at stock moving events.
I added quite a bit two days ago on the pullback from the runup at about 3.65 Hindsight is always 20/20 and I wish I would have waited now. I did not expect such a strong rejection on the first test of 4.00 Looks like a lot of short term money that came in around the 3.00 to 3.25 area took their profits there.
I just looked at a long term 3 year chart with weekly averages instead of daily. This last two weeks the stock just broke the 50 week average. Last week was kust a spike above the average, but this week it broke it solidly, ran up, and now sits just on the top of the line. The chart candle this week is a shooting star (bearish)
I wonder is there a confirmed date for the TKO conference call. Guidance is what this stock needs.
So, what would technical strength look like? Three important zones on the daily chart. First a close above the 3.40 level which is where todays down candle opened would pause the down trend signal. Second a close at or above the mid point of the previous candle which is about 3.50. Lastly a close above the area where the canle two days ago opened, and the one three days ago closed at 3.65 is needed to signal a continued uptrend. On just a technical basis that 3.65 level should hold strong resistance. Of course good news would break right through it.
Yes, nice to see the support. I got up to watch the open in case there was buying interest this morning. After i saw the break to 3.30 I went back to bed, I didn't want to watch (Working 2nd shift this week)
The support is nice, but the OBV and money flow both show more sellers than buyers by a good margin. Coupled with the candle patterns it suggests continued weakness. The 200 day MA is still just barely declining.
This stock has several times during the recent runup taken some profit taking days, and many of those events have lasted 3 days, then the uptrend resumed. This appears to be the heaviest of the corrections recently from a distribution standpoint. The $4.00 level was a big congestion area for this stock going back to the Jan-May time period of 2006.
This stock will need some news or guidance to make an upward move towards that level again. Even something surprising, like maybe a brokerage house initiating coverage would lend some strength. Could be the GE deal could attract some watchers.
Without such an event weakness will continue. The stock has layerred support from here down to the 200 day MA.
Ugly! It's gonna hit some stops down here I would think.
Lakingspan. I am not familiar with the indicator you are using to monitor dilution. I wonder if you could explain it. It is not something I commonly watch or was really aware that it could be watched. I wonder if you are actually referring to distribution. Forgive me if I am in error.
The only real way that dilution can occur is if people are exercising option grants to aquire actual stock. That is certainly a possibility.
You know another interesting thing regarding revenue. In the PR it stated something to the effect that GE and TKO would co-develope a sort of hybrid unit incorporating TKO's technology. So in that instance it becomes interesting how the revenue for sales of such an instrument is divied up. Does TKO get a sort of royalty fee for each unit sold for their technology?
It could also be part of the reason guidance is held up. Certainly GE expects compensation for engineering and developement time in any product they have collaberated on.
Sirius. Most welcome. there is much we can all learn. Your research regularly dredges up things I would have never found. It takes a village to raise an investor...or something like that.
Brian
FYI, there are two reasons I post my opinion on technicals on this board. One of them is it helps me work through them in my own head. The other is there are a lot of long term holders on the board who don't follow much of the technical stuff and I hope perhaps it helps them understand, keep them from being surprised, and allow them to take any actions or make any decisions they might want to.
Now I did post yesterday that the candle was a very strong bearish indicator and there could well be a sell off today. Unfortunately todays candle is a bearish engulfing on top of yesterdays and lends confirmation to yesterdays short term bearish reversal. Without any news event the weakness will continue into tomorrow. The next critical point is how far the price declines in reference to the white candle two days ago. If it looks like it will close below the mid point of that candle, which is at about 3.30 or so, the price will very likely continue down to the next support zone at 3.20ish. At that point the stock will test the 3.20 zone to see if there is sufficient support to stabilize.
Now please, by no means take my opinions as gospel, only another piece of information to perhaps prepare for what may come. So far this stock has followed technical indicators fairly predictably.
Finally, a drop down to 3.20 is actually healthy as it shakes out what is known as weak longs, and at 3.20 the recent uptrend is not in jeopardy.
I share in everyones dissapointment this week.
Good luck to us all.
Brian
Sirius. Your frustration is evident, and justified. We can only guess at reasons GE may have limited guidance. Perhaps final costs of goods and services is still under negotiation. Perhaps GE does not want to tip their hand in other endeavors or plans involving TKO. Perhaps as stated they want to depress the share price and value of TKO. We will have to wait.
As to a day traders dream, no. Daytrders need liquidity to survive. They like stocks that trade daily volume regularly in the millions. There is way to much dead volume time in TKO for day traders. The day TKO did over 4 million shares, that was day trader action. When you see stocks that normally do 2 million shares do 20 million, that is day trder action. There is short term money in TKO, momo trader money, but not likely much day trader money. Day traders regulary trade in blocks of 10,000 shares plus, current volume in TKO doesn't support that.