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From the apparent uncertainty on this board about the
androxal enpoints and trial design etc...I hope that RPRX
can provide a lot more clarity when they hold the conference
call....when I spoke to them I wasnt real certain that even
they had a firm grip on the trial design...we shall see...
My rationale for the sale date is as follows...
THe company is trying to sell themselves as one package
deal..They already decided they cant sell one at a time
as it would be an adverse tax event....therefore....
assuming that proellex advances and they have a major
pharma interested in buying...they want them to not only
buy proellex but also put an NPV on the cash flow of the 1 or maybe 2
licensing deals that they have on Androxal..
It seems that if they get a partner for androxal..they will
have to complete p3's and submit the nda before they can
determine what the cash flows for the US would look like...
If that reasoning is correct..i dont see how they can get
the p3's done and have results before a late 09 timeline..
everything after the hedge fund comment
Thomas,
That is purely my guess......it was never discussed....
Spartex....I dont think they can or will sell androxal early.
At best, I think they get the partnership deals worked out
( whether thats one or two players) and then wrap that
into the sale of proellex..ie, so that the big pharma
player that wants Proellex will put a NPV on the milestones
and royalty revenue from the 1 or 2 androxal licensing deals
and take the whole company out.....hence..I think that if
they try to maximize both drugs, it will take a longer time
because Androxal seems to be pushed back quite a bit..
that being said,,,,it will be worth the wait!,,,
Spartex...
My impression is that there will have to be another
financing at some point....I dont think we get a europe
licensing deal for at least 6 to 8 months and even at
that, it probably wont be enough cash upfront to stave
off financing....but I also think that it might only
amount to an additional 2-3 mm shares...5 at the worst..
IF we can get all accomplished with only 2-3MM additional..
then we should be able to get substantial appreciation
in share price...
My timeline there referred to no QOL and only T required..
Now there;s a whole new gameplan in place.....
My take-aways after speaking with mgmt.....
They had to pursue different end points after FDA made clear
T only wasnt going to be acceptable....
Harvard endocrinolgist was very intriqued by the endpoints
observed in p2's...hence the decision to pursue those
endpoints in future trials...sounded like 3 endpoints...
Will take some time to decide right approach and then will
bring trial design to FDA.....Conference Call in a few
weeks to discuss.....
Probably 2 small trials at first...results maybe in 3rd Q 08...
If they can get enough data,,,maybe a US partner can emerge
to run phase 3 trials beginning in Q4 2008..
Will look for European Partner,,,maybe 3 firms interested..
maybe can get by end Q2...
Still feel that Proellex is the main franchise value driver..
Meeting with FDA in a short time to go over endometriosis and
would rather spend their chits there as opposed to the T
discussions yesterday....
Hopefull that todays buyers were of the longer term variety
and not the short term hedge funds...
My impression was that mgmt still feels their work is cut
out for them to successfully bring the value out of Androxal..
I also feel that the potential time line for a complete sale
of this company has shifted to late 09/early 10...
It was refreshing to speak with a responsive mgmt team as
opposed to a certain pain drug company some of us own...
All the above is IMO......good luck to all....
Dew...whats the rationale for being skeptical of ceo's who
say they have multiple interested partners and multiple
term sheets?....
Also, what if they say there are several interested partners
but they dont mention having term sheets??
I phoned IR 2 days ago.. got voice mail as it was evident the
calls were being screened...left a very specific question...
2 days later.....NO RETURN CALL.....
I know why no one will bid repros stock higher....
their graphic slides gross everyone out!!!.....
1) what could be the other higher purpose?..
2) Why do you want them to be private?...they are a
publicly traded company..if they are private..you
cant be a shareholder...
3) if they try and bring these drugs to market themselves...
the dilution would be a share price killer...its simply
not going to happen.....they really have no option but
to develop as far as necessary and hopefully have several
buyers to develop a fair auction price....
MPower.....what prompted you to buy more shares?
Less than forthcoming is an understatement...I cant
stand the fact that Pierce wont return an email
or phone call.....He was all giddy to get on the phone
in August when they thougt they had approval by
end of summer....now he wont even answer the phone....
also....i dont think they will sell androxal off...
it is an adverse tax event...they will eventually try and get
a large pharma to buy proellex and put an npv on the
androxal licensing deal (with a mid tier player) and take
over the cash flows...and have the large pharma buy
the whole company....
Nerf...
The proper share count has to include outstanding options,,
so share count is 14.4mm....not 13mm
The other mistake we are probably making......
is assuming the stock will go up after the UK approval
announcement....it will probably go up a bit and come
right back down....
So given that....who cares when they announce?...
I feel at ease already.
Called and emailed....no response to either........
Did anyone try and contact RP at JAV about the timeframe?...
First half of 07....
Summer of 07
For sure by end of Summer...thats today...
I have to say this is getting ridiculous..
Who was the Brian guy asking questions right after David Miller?
INSIDER BUYING......
Question....Is anyone else concerned about the lack of insider
buying?...I mean here we are with this most apparently undervalue stock with great upside potential, why arent the
insiders, who are the ones with best vision of the science and
and the knowledge of supposed great pharma interest...why arent
they scooping it up?.....
Take a look at CORT ...now there the insiders think they are
on to something....
I think we are going to use up every bit of their definition
of summer...ie sept 21....I think its very conceivable that
the approval timeline moves into Oct....it seems these
governmental agencies move at a sloooooow space..
Management stated we are "expecting imminent approval" in the
UK...so they didnt really give any date....
JAV takeover companies...I have heard Cephalon and
maybe Endo could be buyers of JAV....
Did they adhere to their "end of summer"..ie sept 21..
date for UK approval..or did they not mention a date??
Nerf..I think you have it wrong.....
It is strictly a matter of what the fda wants to see...
if they want to see qol's and T...then it is a very
nebulous trial to design and get successful results on...
very much handicaps the odds that the trial will be
successful...therefore..no partnership....rprx has to
go it alone..with dilution...and only if results are
positive with regards to T and qol, will they be able
to arrange a decent world wide partnership...
T only and we have a quick global partnership that paves
the way for a total company takeout for proellex and the
npv of the cash flow for the licensing deal for A....
Thomas...
$40 would be great......I believe that rprx feels androxal
is worth maybe 300 to 400mm npv on a license deal...
that would get us to a decent market cap....then we could
drive the proellex results to a nice total price of maybe
70 to 80.......that would be even greater!!.....
I am telling you this qol decision is a big deal for the
valuation of this company....if it goes poorly it is going
to be a very long slow process to realize the value of this
co...if it goes well...I think we will hit the ball out
of the park...
RFJ is hitting the mark....the simple fact is that biotech
acquisitions are done at a percentage to market cap....
usually 125% to 150% over market cap..occasionally for
200%....so the market needs to recognize the value before
rprx will ever sell itself...this company can not bring
these drugs to market themselves..so we get a huge haircut
to whatever the ultimate sales of these drugs would be...
I agree totally with Rfj...stock needs to run up as good
news comes out..then JP will sell out at 150%,...maybe more
if lucky.....
Thats another reason this qol decision is so critical...
if positive...then its conceivable to be sold mid to late
2008....if negative then its a lot more dilution and the
deal time really stretches out...in the latter case I think
we will be lucky to get to $40...
To add furthur to Nerf;s post....rprx only sells as a
company...they will not sell off individually....
so a qol requirement not only delays ANdroxal..it also
means no Proellex deal until androxal p3 done successfully..
if no qol...then rprx can do a licensing deal quickly with
a mid size pharma.....then as proellex trials progress they
can get BIG pharma to ink a deal on proellex and assign
a NPV to the cash flows from the Androxal licensing deal...
simply put...qol's on androxal probably push the timeline
for sale 2 years out...thats a bit long for some folks..
RFJ...fill me in on his sordid past...what exactly did he do previously.
sometimes history repeats itself...
Is it just me or is anyone else getting sick of this biotech
stock price action?...You take great risk holding thru
trial results and safety data....you get the good results
and safety data and the stock does not reward you....it really
seems like the risk/reward is skewed the wrong way...
After that biopsy data i thought we wouldnt ever see 11.5 again..unbelievable...
My take on the RPRX situation....
Its clear that management will only sell the company....
(ie no separate sales of both drugs)...
Big Pharma apparently is NOT interested in Androxal....
Therefore.. Androxal will need a licensing deal with a
mid tiered player that a bigger pharma can put a NPV
on the cash flows....Big pharma really wants Proellex...
so RPRX will require big pharma to purchase proellex rights
and takeover the cash flow from Androxal licensing deal....
Therefore this upcoming FDA meeting on A is huge,,,if it
goes RPRX's way...then they can arrange a licensing deal
for A with mid tier player..paving the way for a total takeout
deal with a BIG pharma.that might happen sooner than expected..if fda meeting requires qol...then
it is going to be a long slow slug of trials and results...
Interestingly.....sort of a chicken and egg thing....drug
company takeouts are based on a multiple of market cap...
RPRX will only be willing to sell themselves for 1.5 to 2x
market cap...so its sort of weird that unless the market
drives the stock higher...RPRX wont sell...they think they
are worth 1bb plus...but if market doesnt run them up...they
cant sell for anywhere near that price...
Dew..do you have any thoughts on the merits of the cr
vs ir?....cr has been given tier 2 coverage so far...
thats not a huge $ premium that a motivated sales force
couldnt overcome...I would bet that GSK has some efficacy
studies forthcoming to help the sales guys...I cant believe
gsk throws in the towel on a 1.4bb drug...maybe time to
buy some flml on the downdraft...p.s...3rd point isnt usually
in the habit of throwing money down the drain...
I never said they gave an approval date of Sept 21..I said
that their definition of summer extended out to Sept 21...
Dew,,Thomas...
You guys could be a bit more appreciative of the people who
actually have contacts and talk with the management of these
companies..
Nerf confirms what I told you previously about the Oct date...
This also applies to JAV comments....
Try not to be so rude....thanks....
Looks like androxal meeting is in October now.....
We really need for the qol requirement to be tossed aside..
if fda requires qol...its is going to really push out the
date at which the company could be sold....
Actually, I am telling you that per management..they
specifically mentioned that end of summer pertained
to Sept 21...
UK APPROVAL....
We should have this very soon...but may have to wait till
closer to mid Sept....The end of summer quote was specified
as summer extends to Sept 21...
SHARE COUNT QUESTION...
What is the fully diluted share count right now??