Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Thanks Dew. That helps me to understand how what is material to one company, even critical, may simply not cross the threshold of being worthy of a line item in a larger one.
However, I have conveyed my sentiments to IDIX on two occasions and will continue to do so in the future.
>>reduced<< GTCB. Atryn EU + highly probable US - paving the way for DIC application - reduced to the point of absurdity IMO. Sorry for the distraction.
>> right wing lunatics<<
Left wing lunatics = very poor scientists. Proven.
I don't see how you can fault yourself, buying here. It's not like this company has many liabilities. The purchaser of the genomics division is assuming many liabilities like severance, lease, and other. Plus, GLGC has decided that repositioning is the best use of their database after all, so their money losing strategy is gone, liabilities are assumed by others, and their cash burn is small. I see it as market forces at work and .81 is a resulting absurdity. Just my opinion with shares at .913
Let's say the Tyzeka sales get to be 300 million in the next three years. I think the critical thing for investors is to know ROUGHLY what the rate will be on average. If it is 12-18%, then we are looking at 36-54 million/yr royalties. That should translate to a market cap of about 360-540 million for Tyzeka alone, or $10-$15 per share.
PS: I don't see how the Motley Fool can advise to hold off on investing until more data come in for HCV, HIV etc. Unless IDIX just completely becomes irresponsible with the (presumed) proceeds from Tyzeka royalties in the coming years, IDIX should be a low risk buy here with potential for 5X-10X appreciation.
As long as more knowledgeable posters here don't seem to be saying much, I will make another observation. From the 1.7M product sales, which is 50% of US sales for 3 months, it seems to be a cinch that Tyzeka/Sebivo will top 20M worldwide sales for 2007. Should do it easily. This would have been a great observation to question JP on during the call. May be worth a follow-up.
Yes, HCV. Thank you. Was I detecting a sense of genuine optimism in the Q&A? It didn't last long, but it seemed to me that JP was certainly conveying a sense that IDIX was up to the fight for a front line HCV treatment?
I think the potency factor somehow connoted a high degree of anticipation regarding the safety screening and dosing.
All above from an extremely naive listener.
Market cap almost exactly equal to cash again. Tyzeka, HCV, HIV programs worth nothing. The last Q's 25M cash expended from the treasury has been given no value. I must say, all the money NVS has spent on the IDIX development team has been and continues to be extraordinary.
The analysts genuinely seem to like JP. I myself, this listen, do like the man more. I hope all this valuation nonsense straightens itself out. If not, it sure won't be the only bio tech hole that money has been chased down.
It seems like the story here is 100X potency => once daily dose with wiggle room to fine tune safety on the HBV. But the HBV trials are going to consume more time and money. Will and/or to what extent will NVS carry the financing of the HBV trials. With the 1st gen NVS was paying for the trials 100% at the end, right? Will the same model hold?
They may initiate a trial on the one compound they have in development. They are seeking a partner for that drug. They have submitted (1 in 3) other candidates back to originating company. Upon initiating trials for any one or more of these they may receive milestone payments, and/or royalties. If the originating company declines to further develop any candidate, in most cases they then own rights to develop internally themselves, or seek a partner to do so.
It's a crap shoot. From these price levels, a hit or favorable news of any kind, I think, would bring us back over a dollar. I can't imagine what unfavorable news may be out there. Even a negative vote on the genomics division may cause the price to go up.
I have been slowly adding FWIW.
Pretty steep slide from $3.30 pre-market a few days ago.
Lotto ticket = stupid. MRK not stupid
I don't personaly see how one could lose much at around $1, but anything is possible and I have seen some crazy ones. However, GLGC has about $1.30 or more in cash if you count the 10M, so we are in deep discount territory by most reasonable standards anyway.
Quite a nice list of large partners already. One has to wonder about these large pharma companies and their collaboration with GLGC. What motivates them? What kind of statistical ratio of submitted drugs/milestones (and maybe royalties) could one expect? The ratio is 1/3 for stage one; would it be something like 1/10 for payout of these? One can only guess because there have been no "bingos" yet. Their database is still available for drug evaluation/exploration. No more losing money on the Genomics division - liabilities assumed..... I have some at a dollar.
Hear, hear! I love the ramifications of even modest revenues going forward; less chance of major dillution.
Judging from the nice sized bids recently, I wonder if some early signs of sector rotation are already occurring.
Sector rotation is what it will take to move this stock, but that will happen as funds look to move money around.
Any speculation on when/if bio tech comes into favor? I think we need some consolidation. These small cap companies just can't survive in a world where losing 10-20-30-40 million per quarter is commonplace.
Another nice bid. Re. the drop in sales, it matters less about US sales since we are on a worldwide royalty scheme today, right? I mean, the royalty is a flat rate the way I understand it but I could be wrong.
IMO, GTC is following through on their commitment to bring this company to profit without further significant dilution, at least the "unfriendly" dilution.
Interesting that today I had to call my Scottrade broker to make a purchase. First time that has happened to for me in IDIX. I think yesterday may have been ECN related manipulation - UP and the MM was not inclined to have that happen again. This stock being very low float, he or she may have a tougher time maintaining an "orderly market".
OT: Revised, DEW, I believe they paid as they went. Except for employee incentive award, the definition is found in the Q1 10Q, section 10.32 if you are interested. Regards.
Thanks. When talking "growth" in a disease it always makes me ponder the difference between it and growth in products or services in other sectors. The similarities are obvious, but we are talking lives in this case.
Thanks Dew, for that update; crazy growth and no reason, I trust, that Tyzeka/Sebivo cannot share in that ramp up.
OT: From all I can read in the filings, I can't help but think TMTA is a buy at these levels. Am I missing something obvious. In connection with that question would be the wild card of lawyers cut/fees.
>>How discouraging it is to have a buyer step up to the plate<<
Strike that!
One possibility is that many or most of the short shares are covered with long positions already for tax reasons.
How discouraging it is to have a buyer step up to the plate with a quater million share bid and see the market view it as an opportunity to unload unwanted shares!
Unbelievable, that huge bid is getting snipped away bit by bit.
15% would be wonderful in my estimation.
"Sweetheart" has won the affections of a new suitor?
Regarding Tyzeka guidance, I know the 20M guidance and appreciate the update they gave re. their expectations of coming close. I was refering to an estimate for IDIX based on the new royalty structure and estimated sales.
Re. cash at year end and cash burn, it just seems too loosy-goosy to me. Most legit tech companies wouldn't get by with a range of 40M-60M. It's like the 5M-10M costs. It just leaves me with the impression that they don't have a good control on spending nor do they care to hold themselves accountable for it.
Still, these things are out of my control and I will just have to live with it. Hopefully, these charachteristics have an upside to them as well in that cavalier spending may translate to big money someday.
For my purposes, I am discounting Tyzeka cash flow to near nothing for the next year, maybe 5 million, or the margin of error in the costs associated with laying off 100 sales reps (I am assuming it doesn't cost much to stop funding a trial) LOL.
I am a bit upset with this company's financial disclosures. 5M-10M; come on, do your homework and give us an estimate +/-, this is a copout. Reducing cash burn by 40-45M; come on, tell us what the new cash burn will be. Reduced from what? The old numbers were obviously loaded with anticipated restructuring costs. 100M-110M cash at year end - it didn't change, it is clear that they want to leave themselves as much room to spend as possible (and these guys know how to spend). To top it all off, they refuse to disclose the royalties or even give an estimate or any guidance re. Tyzeka. It is an arrogant attitude toward the shareholders it seems. It is worrysome to think of what the net loss headline might be for this quarter.
Warren Buffet and GTCB would be strange bedfellows so it probably doesn't make sense to think of the stock in those terms. Trading this stock doesn't make sense to me either so that just leaves "crazy".
I should have been more clear. I meant, the "tiered approach" vis. a straight percantage.
Is this arrangement "par" , above or below? TIA
I guess that is what I was questioning: that NVS was spending equal dollars in this 50-50 relationship re. Tyzeka in the US. That is kind of what it sounded like to me prior to this.
All in all, I am very happy with NVS pushing Tyzeka. Of course, much depends on the percentage that we will recieve. I sure a heck don't think we get 20%, but then, since NVS owns 56%, it becomes more palatable to give IDIX a reasonable percentage.
As they say, the devil is in the details. I am happy to see that NVS will now be accountable for 100% of the Tyzeka expenses. I find it hard to believe that NVS will now spend 80-100 million in the US alone annualy for Tyzeka. By who's accounting was this supposed 50% being enforced? I bet NVS had quite a bit of leverage in this prior relationship. I have a hunch that this whole US Tyzeka program will cost NVS about 50 million annualy, maybe not even that much, but that is just a hunch.
Now it all depends on the royalty arrangement. How arrogant of them not to let the shareholders (owners - LOL) know about the quantitative side of this. These kind of deals and non-disclosures increases the risk that some may be able to take unfair advantage.
I respecfully disagree, but it is history now.
This says exactly what IDIX did, very clearly. Reuters version was quite different IMO.
"Idenix will discontinue all development, manufacturing and commercial activities for Tyzeka/Sebivo. Novartis will continue these activities and have full responsibility for ongoing and future clinical trials and regulatory filings related to Tyzeka/Sebivo. Additionally, Idenix will receive a royalty on worldwide product sales. "
IMO, one has to be carefull how one reads the press. There are always motives, adgendas, etc. The way IDIX wrote the press sounded one heck of a lot different than the way Reuters wrote theirs, for example. I just don't trust the press, they are in the pockets of others sometimes, no doubt.
COLY: Is this company realy that bad:
http://www.coleypharma.com/product-pipeline/index.cfm
Drugs in development with PF, Merck, GSK, Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, Dynovax
There is an interest free payment schedule structured with 3M for about 11M, along with a few million in other debt, but with 95M cash at the end of June and a current market cap of well under that, it seems to me that this company deserves watching.