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CDEL dropped a big (3M+) block on .0074, that seemed to ice things down, and then as they removed it, NITE came in with their own 3M+ block, but at .007. I think it's MMs trying to walk down and it will pop back up unless, of course, material dilution actually is starting again.
None of us can predict the future. But to your question about what the new CEO has done: he founded and later sold Portland Kettle Works, a respected privately-held company in the brewery equipment space. He also founded BrewBilt and (irrespective of any revenue we may see in Q2 financials or beyond) has sold and delivered a ton of equipment, totaling millions of dollars, to breweries across the US, prior to the reverse merger. I’m betting on the guy!
BBRW is a long-term value and growth play in my mind, and it is difficult to read the shorter-term trading patterns. Others should chime in, but the price movement over the last few trading days resembles the period leading up to May 11, when the PPS reversed off of a low, climbed, then gave back most of those gains before moving sideways until the big spike into June. Either way, great three-day run and hopefully more in store tomorrow!
Great close and nice to see +4% after two double-digit positive days.
What's with the 5,400 (not a typo) shares in t-trades this afternoon? That's only $40.
Regardless, whether it's the buyback, double-down enthusiasts (like me), or the next round of flippers, there were a ton of buyers between Friday's close and today's high. Excited for tomorrow.
Good summary.
Companies generally do not provide updates of the buyback in progress -- that would cause a spike in share price a reduce the effectiveness of the buyback. Generally one can expect to hear that the buyback was authorized, then later the company would issues a PR stating that it is complete and/or disclose it in an 8-K or other filing.
I agree with you that we are in "leap of faith" territory. Obviously I and others here believe that the company intends to live up to its public statements, whereas you appear not to -- fair enough to reach different conclusions. But I disagree that the absence of an update on the buyback is in and of itself condemning.
Any chance that a little pop in crude prices (such as the one that seems to be happening now) helps this one break through? Based on the volume, seems like PGAS is getting a little more attention than usual.
In fairness to everyone, it's really easy to hit "public reply" instead of "new post" on these boards; I know that I've accidentally responded to someone instead of creating a new post as intended.
More importantly, awesome to hear the CEO reaffirming those company objectives. Some of the press releases have had vary specific wording, but my interpretation has been the company's dual goals to balance in such disclosure: sharing the reasons for their optimism while not overstating the likelihood of certain successful outcomes. Look forward to seeing BBRW continue to deliver on its public statements!
Seems really resilient in the face of apparently A LOT of profit taking. If it can break back above .009, it could really take off today.
I suspect that a lot of the flippers got impatient and settled for cashing out in the .008s during this dip. Now that a lot of people who didn't sell have consolidated, I'd expect fewer/smaller big share blocks in the low 1 cent range.
This is great. Strong support in the .009s and seems to be marching back up, .0093 is the base as I type. There's going to continue to be some churn with people taking profits (honestly can't blame anyone), but there's a good chance this closes above .01, and I could easily see it push up toward .015-.03 by mid week based on how it is trading.
ETRF lblock st 0105 much thinner. Retail flippers taking a longer horizon IMO, or the shares have now traded into the hands of people with that perspective.
Couple of additional near-term catalysts I’m watching:
1) O/S update, ~8/1 on otcmarkets.com
2) Q2 earning, filed by 8/15 unless they get an extension
The international growth potential is one of the most exciting things about BBRW in my opinion. Growth in the CBD extraction and/or cannabeer markets will be fantastic when/if realized, and it seems like at least CBD extraction sales will result in some 2020 revenue. International growth in their core product line, brew houses and systems, however, could be more immediate and faces fewer road blocks. No significant regulatory hurdles, and demand for American-style crafts beers (i.e., IPAs and the other stuff we have been inhaling the last several years) seems to be growing in international markets. Whatever anyone of us thinks about share structure, etc., BrewBilt is a leading name in quality-built, scalable systems, the name carries a prestige factor, and their systems seem to be relatively user-friendly, as far as these things go. When I spoke to Jef Lewis the beginning of last week, he reiterated international interest and the company's focus abroad as a growth area.
We probably will not see the fruits of this international potential in Q2 results, and honestly I'd anticipate Q4 2020 at the earliest (more likely 2021 and beyond). Nonetheless, this is one of the many things that makes me like BBRW as a long-term part of my portfolio.
Question for those of you who have been following this company longer. Is the stop sign on OTCMarkets.com new or has it been there a while?
Thanks for the copy/pasta and I’d love to see ABML help rid the planet of some of the scourges of mining. I also read Just Business’s investment criteria page that discusses a five to eight year horizon, as well as a bunch of stuff about their past business criteria and previous investments. Much of which makes me very excited as an ABML shareholder.
None of that provides actionable information regarding the structure, terms, scope, nor quantum of the partnership. Nothing regarding its impact to the existing ownership structure. Questions like mine aren’t necessary when companies file an 8-k or issue PRs with more meat than fluff.
Given the setup we all came here for (extremely low market cap compared to high (seemingly hard) assets and shareholders’ equity), a key area to probe is impairment. With the commodity price-driven nature of PGAS’s profitability and some of language in the last 10-Q, it’s reasonable to expect that some impairment will be recorded.
However, because I find scenarios helpful: 50% impairment on all assets = $6M. For simplicity, assume no change to liabilities at $4.4M. That ~$1.6M of equity divided by 11.6M shares O/S implies a $0.13+ PPS, so more than 4x Friday close. Of course, that scenario would involve a gnarly-looking balance sheet, but gnarly enough to justify such an apparent discount to value?
The above is just a back-of-envelope exercise with no great scientific basis. Nonetheless, very perplexing to me why PGAS is stuck in the low 03s, even accounting for some usual MM shenanigans. Look forward to seeing what happens next week.
This is a pretty good article from a couple of years ago about Just Business, the investment firm ABML announced the partnership with.
https://www.notforsalecampaign.org/have-you-heard-just-business-is-not-business-as-usual/
It would be great to know more about the terms of the partnership. There was not much detail in that PR, but it also seems like it must be a pretty done deal (whatever that means) if JB's website already links to ABML's.
Most recent O/S is 509m per OTCBB as of 7/1. Various folks, myself included, have ballparked estimates of what it might be now. The prefs are owned by management, and despite being bullish on this stock, I’m operating under the assumption that any significant conversion of pref shares now would, in fact, suggest that mgmt is not looking out for shareholders. My operating assumption is that mgmt, through existing significant ownership of common stock, has sufficiently aligned interests so as to not be adding a third possible avenue for dilution (other two being conversion of notes and new issuance, both of which I hope are substantially finished).
And now it’s CDEL so what do I know?!
ETRF is the big seller at 75 and they’re retail. I think it’s just people flipping. Can’t blame anyone for profit taking at this level after the increases yesterday and today, although I am personally not going to start selling soon.
CDEL ask $0.0047 lower than next seller. These bozos get turned upside down then try to jam the emergency brake
Thanks all for helping me understand the buyback/convertible issue.
Today makes little sense to me but I’m not complaining (nor getting used to it). Good luck!
Thanks for breaking that down for me.
One question on your and flyerfan’s comment on needing to eliminate all convertible notes before any buyback occurs: is this an OTC requirement? I’m not a rule 10b expert, but did not understand that paying off/repurchasing all convertibles to be a prerequisite.
That is strange, recall reading that they have had up to seven or so employees, and some of the pictures I’ve seen appear to include at least that many. Happy to hear that they still have a lot of work in progress though.
When I first started researching BBRW, their proximity to Beale AFB struck me as an attribute, since presumably a major employer like that means lots of highly skilled tradesmen, machinists, etc., in the area. That could, of course, cut both ways with competing against well-paid/secure govt jobs. Anyway, if those guys keep welding I’ll keep buying cheap shares!
Gotcha, thanks. Great to hear.
Jimmy, awesome intel. Any sense of how many pieces/orders were in progress? Thanks for sharing your findings here.
Freedom69 and justinbailey, if you care to say, what/who do you surmise is behind the most recent (last couple weeks) dilution? BBRW issuing more shares, note holders converting/selling, or a combination thereof?
If I'm BBRW mgmt, knowing that the majority of 1.5 bil (as of 3/31) convertible debt can be converted/sold at the noteholders' discretion, I'd want to see the pace of conversions be as quick as possible. Reason being, as others have suggested, that BBRW receives maximum benefit from a buyback when share price is depressed as much as possible.
Given the amount of apparent conversions that have happened above 3/31 share prices (closed at $0.0030 that day), and the variable nature of the conversions (meaning that notes converted at PPS above 0.0030 results in fewer shares for the dollar), posit that the max new shares resulting from the notes as of 3/31 is some degree lower than 1.5 bil.
If noteholders, who I presume have more exhaustive access to financial records and BBRW mgmt than we do, are choosing to convert notes now, despite the possibility of more shares at lower prices, does that not imply that we are approaching the floor? Or at least terminal velocity of noteholder-based dilution?
JB, also interested in your comment earlier that driving down the PPS as much as possible to maximize buyback effect is not in the interest of the shareholders -- can you please help me understand? It strikes me as potentially illegal if BBRW is playing an active role in it, but I suppose my thought is, for those of us resigned to ride or die here, aren't we aligned on that strategy? Through that lens, all the PRs/mini-pumps can be viewed as a defensive strategy: play chicken with the noteholders, and force them to make hard decisions to convert at a higher PPS, thereby lessening ultimate dilutive conversions (in terms of # of shares).
I'm also the same dude whose strident written defense of BBRW's prospects was followed by a 17.5% single-day drop, so suffice to say there's some margin for error in my analysis and lines of thinking, hah.
Thanks, Jaesmooth. Suffice it to say that, right or wrong, I've definitely been consuming more cold ones since I first bought $BBRW. Here's to hoping that my stress-induced demand trickles up to our friends in Grass Valley!
Nice grab! Excited to see this find its giddy-up and go!
Totally agree -- $0.005/sh buyback would be poor execution in my eyes. Just wanted to pick a conservative goalpost for my example.
Interested to hear your thoughts after you have researched further.
Seems like we've got a few people here, and a handful on twitter (including a surprising of number of tweets in Indonesian) talking about $PGAS. My suspicion is that some of the MMs got upside down when this had a brief spike on Friday, and the last few days have been a battle between the MM walk-down on one hand, and slightly increasing interest in this stock on the other. Hope we are reading this one right -- would love to see it pop into solidly silver territory!
A few thoughts on the current situation:
1) Definitely experiencing mixed feelings over the 80k shares I purchased yesterday at $0.0039, but that did not stop me from adding 85k more at $0.0036 today. I am aware that, based on consensus sentiment here, I am throwing good money after bad.
2) On a whim, I called BrewBilt and left a message yesterday. Said I was an investor visiting Virginia soon and wanted to support their reported new brewery client there (both true). To my surprise, Jef Lewis called me back and we had a brief, pleasant chat. Although I did not obtain the name/location of the Virginia operation (new brewery with facility still being built), nor could he answer my questions about the buyback, I ended the conversation feeling a sense of reaffirmation in the DD that has made me a believer in this company as a winner over the next 6-12 months.
3) The Sacramento State PR was somewhat all over the place. That said, my interpretation was that the references to the San Diego State program (which seems unaffiliated, besides the Cal State connection, with the Sac State program) were made to demonstrate the future trajectory of the Sac State program. Not the PR I would have penned but not my company. I found press on the first iteration of the Sac State program that they ran in 2018. I have an email in to the biology professor who apparently co-ran the program in '18 asking for corroboration of the BBRW system purchase approval, and will update this board if he responds. At a minimum, it seems like the Sac State program is legit, if fledgling. The best write-up I found was titled "Class untaps beer knowledge for students" - State Hornet, 3/13/18. There is also a clip of Good Day Sacramento where the same professor is interviewed, although it provided more unintentional comedy versus actionable information. Sorry for lack of links, still learning how to post here.
4) Dilution. WTF, right? I think everyone holding BBRW shares wishes that there were fewer of them outstanding, but I also don't comprehend the magnitude of surprise that new shares seem to be hitting. Per the 3/31/20 10-Q, Note 9, Convertible Notes Payable, BBRW had notes payable that could be converted into 1,510 mil shares as of that date. I am not privy to the conversion terms, but made some simplifying assumptions to do BoE math. Only four of the notes listed as of 3/31/20, Actus #10, EMA #5, and Power Up #9 and 10, WERE NOT already past their due date. Assuming that the 1.5 bil shares were proportionally associated with the outstanding balances of each note, the four I listed above come to 320 mil shares, meaning that another 1,190 shares were convertible at will as of 3/31. Of the four other notes, Actus #10 became due today, and the other three are due in October, January '21, and February '21, respectively. My point is that, regardless of any announcements such as the 6/30 buyback PR, there were always going to be a couple/few hundred million more shares converted by note holders before everything stabilizes. We know that 265 mil of those shares hit between 6/10 (per 10-Q) and 7/1 (last update on OTC BB). Assuming that every other convertible note (before today's maturity) gets converted, we are looking at 509 mil (current) plus remaining 925 mil = 1,434 mil O/S. BBRW certainly could have issued more notes since 3/31, but presumably, if so, their due dates would be in 2021+.
5) For reasons that I admit seem understandable, very few seem to think that BBRW has commenced its buyback, or even will in the future. Others here are light years ahead of me in interpreting the tape and Level 2 data. However, I have seen enough big, blocky buying (about 4 mil shares Monday around 3PM, for instance), to believe the possibility that the buyback has commenced. With the announcement that it was authorized, BBRW has no further disclosure obligation before buying back shares, just need to stay within the % of daily volume thresholds, etc. Assuming that BBRW funds half the buyback amount publicized ($750k) and that they have not/will not optimize the PPS execution (so say an $0.005/sh avg), they're taking 150 mil shares off the table. More actual funding and lower PPS (such as those available today), would obviously amplify the impact. Absent major operational setbacks (no guarantee), I anticipate the O/S settling somewhere under a billion, and while that is prima facie ridiculous, I can get comfortable with that based on my optimism of future enterprise value.
6) My opinion of overall potential value of BBRW does, in fact, give them "credit" for growth within their traditional brewery business, as well as CBD extraction. I don't think we know enough about the cannabeer potential, but it smells like a real opportunity to me, although the innuendo-laden PR was not a great look (hindsight 20/20, I know). Allowing for the fact that BBRW could go b/k and we all walk away empty-handed (very real possibility, many businesses are failing right now), I think any reasonable success story for BBRW would put their enterprise value in the neighborhood of $20+ mil (again, very real possibility to "die trying"). Given that the convertible notes being discussed constitute the major debt load for BBRW, there should be relatively fewer liability on such a future-state balance sheet. All told, I feel comfortable that BBRW (if successful in its business plan) can wrap up 2020 somewhere in the 1.5 to 3 cents per share range, with plenty of scenarios (in my mind) for more upside, intermediate and long term. Two months ago, the internet was aflame with predictions of how valuable BBRW could become as a company. While the path has probably gotten narrower and the denominator in our math has grown, I personally do not believe that the fundamental opportunity has deteriorated materially.
Apologies for the novel, as I wanted to address a few different BBRW topics all in one place. As always, appreciate other viewpoints and continue to enjoy learning from other on this board. Thanks for reading.
Understood - thanks for the clarification!
Attempted to slap the ask twice, each for 500 shares, at .0389. Both trades cleared, at 0.03595 and 0.036. CDEL was/is low ask showing 14,825 shares at 0.0389, and neither of my purchases seemed to reduce the count. I am not used to seeing an iceberg with a non-round share number, so unsure what to make of it.
Point being, although I am really excited about this stock and my avg price under $0.04, I worry that it might not be as thin above as it looks. Interested to hear any other perspectives/different interpretations.
Time to put a fork in this one? Volume has just fallen off a cliff.
They only specified 2020, which I interpreted as Q3 and/or Q4.
If the next O/S is under 700 mil, call me Lionel because I’ll be dancing on the ceiling. Agree that they were cute with the PR timing. That said, 700m would represent a deceleration of dilution — the majority of the convertibles are past due and eligible for conversion; if you’re one of those lenders, why wait? If you’re a lender seeing the PPS drop, gotta pull that trigger ASAP.
Non sequitor, but a point I’ve not seen mentioned is the interest rate on the three most recent convertible debt issuances disclosed in the last Q — 10% vs 12 or 24% for all previous notes. I took that as vote of confidence from the perspective of those underwriters, who presumably have access to more exhaustive financial records than we do. But in fairness, a lot has changed since Q1.
Announcement of the approval of the buyback was 6/30, with next O/S update being the 7/1 update on OTCBB. Isn’t it more accurate, as of now, to say we don’t have enough evidence either way?
Thanks Jae for sharing your thoughts. Hope we’re not totally crazy here!
Question for other members here with more experience interpreting form T trades: what indicator(s) suggest that recent BBRW t-trades have been dilutive (as seems to be the consensus)?
To be clear, given the quantum of outstanding convertible notes past due dates that were listed in the latest Q, it seems probable that the O/S will be north of 509 mil when OTCBB updates on 8/1. That said, despite realizing that there is major hair on this ball, I still have optimism that BBRW/J-lew will follow through on the buyback. Following the PR announcing the approval thereof, BBRW is free to start repurchasing shares so long as they are below the 25% of day's volume threshold, and I would not expect an update on the buyback from the company until the earlier of its completion/its next filing.
After much hype, sentiment around BBRW seems to have taken a nosedive among the rank-and-file retail investor community (just judging by this board and other online communities of which I'm aware) -- in large part due to the absence of big revenue numbers that (IMO, based on the timing of PRs) should never have been expected in Q1. It is plausible, in my eyes, that we have a situation where the beginning of the buyback is mitigating what otherwise would have been worse PPS degradation caused by the aforementioned sentiment/some degree of continued dilution.
Apologies for the long (first) post and thanks in advance for any explanations or resources folks may have! Disclosure: current bagholder at a $0.0130 average, really hoping these guys weren't dumb enough to fabricate an order from a public institution (Cal State).