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warrant holders not being able to exercise them at this point in time is highly intelligent and intentional by NEPH management. In fact it now looks as though the whole process may have been a now (successful) attempt my management to block the fraudulent practices of wall street.
You see the stock was not trading anywhere near true value. the stock was being naked shorted to death by (many possibilities) ie a large biotech.
the offering lowered the float so low that the stock cannot be manipulated daily. It was really a stroke of genius and the first ive seen done successfully in my 8 years of trading!
also if they were to release the warrants now, people would just dump them onto the market and we may be right back to square one with heavy shorting again by the powers that be.
Wall street never plays fair any more.
mk still posts on yahoo mb
yeah, NEPH had good news on the 26th after closing which was restated on the 27th in a health article
sorry low that post was from 7.25.11 was about NEPH.ob
low; does the 7.25.11 daily candle have a shooting star? (I know you like at least double the prev. days volume and it was less than that but im trying to learn.
and
now what do you think of the 7.27.11 chart today? (closed at high of 1.60 (bullish) but volume is not increasing just staying the same 40k
breakdown of shares:
my memory has:
Wexford/Lambda @ 73%
another fund long time holder (name escapes me) @10%
Southpaw has a new holding of 9%
Only 8-10% in the public float and some of all of these numbers includes warrants. (warrants and their loan allowed Wexford for example to increase there holding from 44 to 73%)
thus only the 500k or up to 1million share float
jay; public float is about 1million but half of that is warrents so only really 500k!!!
jay; i was originally thinking $5 also but now i think we blow past $10 without batting an eyelash.
there just aren't that many shares and new investors will see the 2 year chart where it has us over $55-60. They wont realise the reverse split so $5 and $10 will still look cheap...and it still may be cheap.
jmho - con
hi low; its been a while for me posting here. can you check today's chart 7.25.11 on NEPH. I know she has low volume and is very thinly traded but I own a lot and options on her.
thanks - con
smokey the deal was for 1.5 mil euro! about 2.6mil usd$. Also the market missed what this means to the company. Now we have cash that at our current burn rate will keep nephros afloat beyond 2016.
Translation. Neph is not going anywhere and will be a going concern when fda approval is granted.
longs it may still take a while but this will happen.
-con
510K was not supposed to be resubmitted until 3rd Quarter of this year as stated in the company filing... So hold on to your hat July, Aug., or Sept will be the month and the price will move with the news.
-con
picker; we appreciate your efforts, thanks for whatever time you can donate
smokey; jay is totally correct as I understand it:
1000warrants / 20(reverse split still applies) = about 50 new shares you could purchase.
The purchase price will not be .02 because you now need to multiply by 20 (due to the reverse split). Therefore:
.02 * 20 = .40 per new share that you purchased.
this deal was good. only sucked for people who did not fully subscribe. However if there are any who did not fully subscribe i recommend doing what many that miss out are doing now.
AVERAGE down now while you can still get shares for between .50 and .70. It's not much higher than the warrant price and still will bring your cost average way down. This i believe is the reason stock is still moving higher and naked shorting is doing nothing to kill price.
I have 2 friends using this strategy right now who miss the boat on the rights offering.
hope this helps. - con
part2:
A post was in my thread b4 that stated “So what is the MM's eventual game plan? What is the purpose of keeping the share price low, if they have short positions on this stock then surely their best bet right now would be to close them as quickly as possible. If they are still selling shares (or shorting even further) at lowest prices possible in the current market, then they are playing a very risky game - I would have thought these professional traders would not take such a risk?!
My understanding of MMs was that they made their money on the spread, rather than shorting stock.”
First the purpose for keeping the price low is to have people panic sell like what happened before. I’m sure many MM’s filled some of their short position and made a nice profit with all of the dumping that went on (I remember someone saying they sold 30,000 shares at .20 with over $1 cost basis).
Second whatever the MM’s are net short in their trading accounts I’m sure they would like to close them out right now. The only problem is that no one is selling because the people left are hard core believers and buy and hold and are not here to trade it on spikes and dips and the other are the institutions that hold a majority and have a much higher cost basis (everyone except Southpaw who we have seen in the past will sell their position out in a heartbeat. They are playing a very dangerous game right now and the problem is they are painted in a corner. This reverse was the worst thing for them. While W/L might not know how to run a company…they do know how to structure an offering to protect their interests and keep them out of trouble by offering t to ALL of the shareholders big and small.
The MMs have no choice right now to kep it down or else their trading accounts take a big hit. Right now the key is the warrants. Thet are hoping to keep the price in the .70 range and get their hands on the stock through the warrants. It is the only way they can fill their short position right now. As I wrote when the offering first came to light….the key is the warrants. They are again hoping the short sighted investor will look to get out and allow them to fill their shorts at lower prices than if everyone held.
So based on my speculation I’m hoping for some good news on the 10Q and am happy right now the warrants are not tradable. It could make for an interesting “perfect storm” for us “bagholders” as we are so affectionately called. It is a dangerous game sometimes being on a trading desk and W/L has more information than us (DTC sheets that would expose what amount MMs are short and the shareholder lists, etc)
Finally the statement of “ My understanding of MMs was that they made their money on the spread, rather than shorting stock.” Is correct….in a rational market and without greedy crooks that is what is supposed to happen. But at times they see an opportunity to make a lot of money just because they are big and have deeper pockets and can control and manipulate a stock. I hope for all of our sakes it backfires on them this time. GLTA (except those MMs who are short)
livelaughlearn's great post from yahoo: (2parts)
There are a lot of questions on the message boards regarding why the MM’s would be “playing these games”. I have also spent a lot of time trying to educate how the MM system works and why they do the things they do (like fill an offer-to buy shares at .71 at .57-which makes no sense especially when it is at the bid and they make no trading profit). Some of what I say is speculation on my part-trying to guess what their mind set is because I am not on the trading desk and have no idea what their trading account looks like. One thing I know for sure…..this is not trading in a rational market.
What I do is take what I do know:
1)Based on the Fails to deliver before the reverse and the price action there seemed to be a net short position in the stock in some MM accounts.
2)I wrote a lot about that before I left the board for a while and the downward pressure also had Southpaw buying some shares (as evidenced by their recent filing) so it could not be net long in the trading account.
3)On a stock that does not have a lot of volume (as NEPH did b4 the reverse and after) MM’s like to make a nice profit from shorting the stock. They play on fear of the unsophisticated investor, sell net short in their trading account and try and pick up shares from panic sellers at the lower prices.
4)The selling before the reverse and stock offering from those who did not believe in the stock or left after the FDA Non-Equivilant decision left a core of people who wanted to take the opportunity to “average down” and see if this money would allow NEPH a chance to get FDA approval and time to see where the military, Steris, and oversea sales would go.
5)There is a very very small float on this stock and even less after the three institutions as has been discussed a lot by MK and others. Most of the float is also in the warrants which will be discussed later.
6)There is no stock out there right now (I said b4 that I speculate but I am very confident about this statement. The trading aspect (I will discuss the fundamentals in another thread) of this stock is a very very tight rubber band. Any positive news on this stock would send it soaring b/c 1) there is no stock for sale at levels below $5 2) the net short position in the MM’s account would put added buying pressure on those accounts due to margin requirements 3) lots of people that sold would come back in to try and make up for their losses.
7)The small float and the institutions that have restricted stock make for very little available stock to fill buy orders and the MM’s will not be able to short it because they are already short
Jay; lowtrades settings are just more sensitive and i've found more reliable as well.
luv the charts though!!!
jay; love ur charts but you should really switch to lowtrades setup:
StockRSI for momentum
ADX instead of MACD for trend (more sensitive)
and CMF instead of acc/dist for volume on a 14day period. (more reliable and more information)
but keep the charts commin!!!
-con
stockpicker; thank you for starting this board but really man, time to get ur head out of the sand. I know you cant possibly be short this stock so smell the roses. Nephros is without a doubt going higher. fundamentals and technicals both are telling us this and we have a pending fda approval.
all aboard
ha,ha; Jay i use lowtrade's methode for all may tech trades!
he is one of the very best - con
cant believe it took this long to begin the trial
Jay:..also i once researched a few stocks which had this OBV Acc/dist variance and came up with a theory. I believe i usually occurs where there are huge amounts of "failures to deliver" as is the case with neph. MM's continue to allow a few clients to short shares with out borrowing real shares (naked shorting). If you check out nephs failures to deliver it usually has been a big percentage of the overall daily volume for over a year now, again making some thing there will be a short squeeze at some point.
if you want to look into my theory check out the stock Dendreon(DNDN). This company was known publicly to have been a naked shorted stock. It even made jim cramers show and when asked about it he made the statement to the caller; "don't touch it, it's a battle ground stock!" If you look at period from about 2-3years ago the OBV and Acc/dist discrepancy is again obvious. Let me know what you think.
-con
jay; ive been trying to reconcile Acc/dist line with OBV with this stock for 2 years now. Just a few questions:
1. How can two volume indicators be telling us opposite things? (check out 3 month chart as well at 3 year chart!!!)
2. Because i have never received a really good answer i gave up on using both OBV and Acc/dist(although i still put more stock on Acc/dist if given a choice, that being said i tend to only use Chaikin Money Flow for a volume indicator( i like a 14 day period).
Dont you think CMF is a better indicator than Acc/dist anyway?
Good News, form the yahoo board...
on 5-May-11 04:30 pm JT posted:
Finally got to speak to Mr. Kochanski. Summary of conversation follows: The April 20th meeting with the FDA went as expected thus a new 510k will be submitted as indicated in recent PR. The two special 510k submissions referred to in the PR for the SSU and MSU filters are basically supplements to an approved application and therefore should be more easily reviewed and approved. Upon questioning Mr.K acknowledged that it is normal for an RFI upon validation to be followed with a RFP (order). Military budgets and priorities will determine the if and when regarding a potential order. *** Something we haven't discussed is the potential revenues from Steris. Neph finishes their product development for Steris this year and if Steris incorporates it into their product line it will provide a very nice revenue stream for Neph. Keep an eye out for the upcomming regulatory filing in the next week as they seem to prefer including significant news in this filing as opposed to separate press releases. Came away from discussion very psyched about Neph's future, Hope you feel the same. Hope you found the aforementioned informative, Regards,JT
he has been reliable to this point, - con
you have to search nephros on the message board sight on yahoo. it is still there just the old link is disabled.
Southpaw is back in neph!!!
there is a great thread on the yahoo board for those who have not seen it. Southpaw shorted neph way back and may have been helping to tank the price the who way down. They have covered and have taken up a 10-11% stake in neph now! last time they did crazy news and pump came with it driving the price to $2.61. Hold on, this is getting interesting now!
-con
agreed, phil;
hedge fund doesn't benefit on such low volume. i think mm's are praying they can scare everyone out of their shares if they just tank the price because of the failure to deliver issue. how much do you want to bet there is a major discrepancy with shares traded vs. actual shares. . .now the question is what will be done about it!
thanks; DXO (proshares ultra double long oil) anyone know what happened to this ticker?
agreed eom
mossy; do u have the post number for the "box in" trade. is it the same as taking out a short instead of selling?
good explanation of trading this week from Yahoo...
...Nobody is buying because the stock is going to R/S in a few days, the shorts DO have to cover their positions and keep shorting the stock in hopes of tripping stop losses or cause panic selling, time is running out and they need shares bad. Problem is that the float is relatively small, only around 20 million shares, and they've shorted the same position over and over, and NO CERTIFICATES exist for those shares to be turned over for NEW certificates after the R/S. Someones sitting on those non-existant trades and will have their account charged back for not covering. They can't cover AFTER the R/S because there will be even FEWER shares available to trade, float goes from 41 million shares, 21 million are warrants and not trade able or shortable, to a little over 10 million shares, of which roughly 6.5 million shares will be warrants. But the only play until the split is shorting.
Market cap is out of whack, company has $3.2 million in cash, but the 41 million shares are only worth less than $1.6 million shares, 41 million times .04. Do you really think you can BUY $1.6 million in profit by buying all 41 million shares for $1.6 million dollars?
fair enough. some here like myself were down almost 90% on their investment and via the rights offering are now down less than 50% so all in all neph has apparently bought them some time. good for you for getting out at a gain. - con
picker; why so hard on this stock? many are sitting on huge losses here and at least neph has much more upside than your average 4 cent (.80) cent stock. someone like myself who is in at an average of .84 is only out a few less shares after the rev. split seeing that the pps will be .80. all in all many are recovering here and are not going to be out as much cash as they thought. are you short the stock?
neph has a lot more going for it than most pennies and if they had not gotten a bum deal from fda they would have been a real good investment. . .that may still happen
good trading tape! i have a feeling most will get some $ back. this story is not over yet and these next few weeks leading up to Q4 should be interesting. if price rises unexpectedly i think good earnings news leak....jmho - con
looks like a head and shoulders reversal forming also, no?
Dianne i think your getting tripped up in the order of things.
1. if you fully subscribe you will have 4.2 times the number of shares you have now.
2. You will also have a warrent (really a stock option of sorts, to by almost as many shares at any time over the next 5 years at a cost to you of only .02 per share, but there are selling restrictions on these shares.
3. If, there is a reverse split it will be 20:1
4. the reverse split would only take place after all of the above
thanks
TD Ameritrade - Rights Offering
R now available in your account. It shows up under N/A and will total the number of shares you currently have in another line item NEPH.
i have them in my zecco account also as:NEWTRT
did u see any instructions on how to proceed? im guessing a buy order no?
are RIGHTS going to our broker account or only via mail?
i dont have them in my TDA or Zecco account yet and wonder if anyone has them. - con
i think many people don't understand the offering but it is not as complicated as some have suggested. When you do the math after both the forward and then the reverse split we will still end up with about the same percentage of ownership of the company but it cost us a fee to maintain(ie participation in the offering).
on the other hand it grants W/L over 70% ownership in the company, they currently only have 43%.
this leads me to believe 2 things:
1. Before they announce next step they want to ensure they have majority ownership so by-out or merger cannot be voted against
2. They want to expose the vast number of failures to deliver that have been trading in the market
this offering will do both, we can only hope the sec is willing to hold brokers responsible for settling accounts once those accounts don't balance properly
-con