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Both Thermo Fisher and Catalent reported strong first qtr biologics results with strong demand.... CTLT reported yesterday ... in the Catalent cc a question was asked about organic vs inorganic future growth ... they plan to have half of their biz in biologics by 2024 and future acquisitions will likely be part of the growth...
Will we hear something from Avid mgmt before the next cc in early March?
just a matter of time...
from interviews...
Subcutaneous daratumumab (Darzalex), which takes 5 minutes to administer rather than 4 to 8 hours for IV administration or 90 minutes for rapid infusion, offers a more convenient treatment option for patients. As such, once subcutaneous daratumumab becomes available, it will have a widespread use in the early relapse setting, predicts Martin.
https://www.onclive.com/onclive-tv/dr-martin-on-biomarkerdriven-therapeutics-in-multiple-myeloma
and another doctor waiting on SC delivery...
https://www.survivornet.com/articles/an-exciting-development-in-delivery-of-daratumumab-for-multiple-myeloma/
another good art...
https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/global-markets/top-10-advanced-therapy-milestones-of-2019-patient-access-takes-center-stage/
note item 4....
just a matter of time...
yes... and the remaining capacity and expansion capacity should go pretty quickly if the janssen and roche drugs sell as expected..... just waiting on fda approval which should be a slam dunk for both.... possibly $2 to $3 bil in sales right of the bat... so capacity can go fast and if Avid doesn't have the capacity, manuf goes elsewhere... and it could take a year to expand with construction and testing....
throw in all the activity from other halo clients....
my guess is halo is locking down the suppliers right now...
btw.... yahoo now reports 700k volume from yesterday
that position can change... they mentioned clients might partake in funding... there is no free lunch and whatever trade offs for a client providing capital would probably come out of gross margins imo ... and they should be aiming for higher share price down the road...
a 3 to 4 million share placement at $6 gives them $18 mil to $24 mil and a big head start on expansion... all imo
sure smells like a financing coming.... which would be good if needed for expansion.... mgmt has stated in the past they don't want to do that at these levels....
I'm seeing over 700 k shares traded today via schwab... 2 trades at end of day 268 k total...
anyone else seeing this volume?
hopefully we can see the light at the end of this tunnel.... halo biz should pick up as two commercial products are teed up .... darzalex sc should be a winner out of the gate ... roche drug should be a winner as well..... and what about all the new prospects for enhanze?
the jp morgan presentation spells it out.... unfortunately Avid can't disclose all they are doing at this time....
https://s21.q4cdn.com/250105458/files/doc_presentations/2020/01/Halozyme-Corporate-Presentation-as-of-January-2020-FINAL-2.pdf
the phase 2 was sabotaged by JB.... set the company back when the real competitor was avastin... the phase 3 was derailed by I-O drugs that hit the mkt right in the middle of the sunrise trial... many patients left to try the opdivo - keytruda drugs..
as for future, CDMO market is still under consolidation... Avid BOD knows the drill having sold their companies... expect the same to continue...
good art on CDMO outlook...
https://dcatvci.org/6289-20-20-insights-and-outlook-on-the-cdmo-market
halo worth listening to... cliff notes.... enhanze biz is booming and expected to boom higher...
delivery time in minutes vs hrs... extend patent protection w/ new formulation.... 56 targets now and new potential partners at the table negotiating...
avid should be getting very busy ....
halo JP Morgan presentation coming up...
https://www.halozyme.com/investors/events-and-webcast/default.aspx
the value driver over the next few months will be halo biz.... hopefully some clues will be revealed in the halo jp morgan presentation this thursday imo...
https://www.halozyme.com/investors/events-and-webcast/event-details/2020/38th-Annual-JP-Morgan-Healthcare-Conference/default.aspx
good article on cdmo trends for 2020...
https://www.cphi.com/europe/visit/news-and-updates/pharma-outlook-10-trends-look-out-2020
consolidation is expected to continue...
Catalent and Thermo Fisher have been active... Also private equity players have been active... Cambrex was recently acquired by private equity...
halo upgraded ...enhanze platform...
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3015100&headline=HALO-Halozyme-upgraded-to-Outperform-from-Market-Perform-at-BMO-Capital
sorry if already posted...
be patient folks... the ducks are ling up...
good articles on cdmo mkt... a year old ...
https://bourne-partners.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2019-Biopharmaceutical-CDMOs-Market-Insight.pdf
most of the smaller cdmo w/ biologic capability have been bought out...
Avid's bod has several ceo's that sold their cdmo's to big companies...
followup on darzalex sc.... janssen applied for approval last july
Agree... for once we have a BOD with solid connections to leaders in the industry... Compton is not going to join Avid unless he sees opportunity...
Also note Walsh from BOD worked at Avista...
I view this move as positive...
Compton comes from Cambrex... Greg Sargen on Avid BOD is at Cambrex (leaving end of Jan)...
Cambrex acquired by private equity fund...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cambrex-announces-completion-acquisition-permira-142724261.html
you are prob right... we should see cdmop retreat back to $25 before that story unfolds...
as for timing on capital raise, it all depends when they need it.... could be sooner vs later which is good...
In June, Catalent raised $500 mil senior unsecured notes priced at 5%... at 10.5% the preferred is a drag on earnings imo... and I don't think comparing it to gross margins is the right comparison vs comparing to alternative financing or payoff... if analysts are valuing at 15 to 16 or more multiples on EBDITA, the preferred is holding the value down at a 9.5 multiple equivalent... in any event, as the sp increases, hopefully the preferred is retired soon...
based on past history, i smell a capital placement in the works. Granted we have a mgmt team and cfo that is on the ball vs old crew... expansion and associated cost is probably forthcoming..... and the preferred at 10.5% is probably a drain on earnings given 15 plus multiples on ebita valuations for biologic manuf...
just a hunch...
finally a big boy conference... float getting tighter and more analysts on the calls...
if we do a capital raise for expansion, might be a good time to retire preferred... biologics manuf trading at 15 plus multiples on ebita... positive leverage getting rid of 10.5% preferred rate
yes the RSI needs some rest...
good art on cdmo consolidation .... bp wants fewer suppliers w/ more capabilities... no surprise...
https://www.epmmagazine.com/opinion/the-state-of-pharma-in-2019/
yes good riddens to them.... SK got a consulting gig w/ patriot... now less than a mil mkt cap . now a change in biz strategy.... blockchain... and the sucker is trading at 2 tenths of one cent... yes it would need a five bagger to get to a penny... karma...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/patriot-scientific-corporation-provides-business-130000608.html
Cook is now Catalent... big cdmo... the three process dev validation projects with existing customer is prob related to Halo... two are with enhanze ...janssen darlezex and the roche combo
janssen filed fda in july and received standard review so prob first or second calender qtr next year... 7hr delivery time vs five minute delivery time on a blockbuster drug... should be in high demand per many sources... Dr's analysts etc... Roche to file fda submittal probably 1st qtr per halo cc... Avid produces roche drug.... both endeavors should require finish/fill capability ... i believe catalent has that capability so Avid will need to step up imo or be the second choice vendor...
Both drugs should get approved .....
Third process dev valid was for halo's own drug which busted last month. Halo now focused on enhanze and broadening the platform.... lots of activity... Avid should get some of this biz..
four trials w/ merck and bavi... two announced since last cc... will manuf revs increase? also Oncologie presented a poster in sept at med conference in china ... poster was data from sunrise study about bavi plus follow up i-o agent... bavi getting ready for a trial in china so hopefully more manuf revs... link was on oncologie page - china affiliate about a week ago... one needs to translate into english (unless one can read chinese)
https://dinghangyiyao.cn/xwg/info.aspx?itemid=94
good article on cdmo and capacity issues...
https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2019/11/25/Advanced-therapies-creates-CDMO-capacity-bottleneck
so what will we hear next week.... excuses or some contract wins?
If I can recall on the last cc, an analyst asked about rev guidance on a qtr to qtr basis. Mgmt said the rev would be uneven given the annual maint shutdown for qtr 2and the rev for year would be weighted towards the second half of the year. I don't expect the 2nd qtr to be good but what I want to see is guidance going forward. Halo is now focused on enhanze and bavi started a couple of trials which should help avid rev's. It is time for them to deliver.
yes but the gene/vector biz is taking up capacity at other cdmo's which has an impact on the availability of capacity across the board.
halo 3rd qtr cc.... enhanze ready for takeoff...
https://s21.q4cdn.com/250105458/files/doc_financials/2019/q3/2019-Q3-Earnings-Presentation-November-12-FINAL2.pdf
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/11/12/halozyme-therapeutics-inc-halo-q3-2019-earnings-ca.aspx
add a couple of bavi trials manuf and things are picking up...
BOD member pretty busy... glad to have someone on BOD in the thick of things...
https://www.streetinsider.com/PRNewswire/Arranta+Bio+announces+the+acquisition+of+Captozyme%E2%84%A2%2C+creating+a+Center+of+Excellence+for+microbiome+development+and+clinical+supply/16125777.html
Ties to venture capital and Thermo Fisher...
How many BOD members do we have that built CDMO's and sold to bigger fish... at least 2...... these guys have a plan... just a matter of time...
I'm not a shareholder (and glad).... what's the point of buyback? .. raise share price so execs can get out... raising capital for a buyback? terrible plan IMO... mr ponzi would be proud... maybe they should invest in WeWork...
halo released results.... enhanze getting busy...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/halozyme-reports-third-quarter-2019-210100217.html
very interesting .... could this be the reason for buyback vs dividend?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/company-insiders-are-selling-stock-during-buyback-programs-and-making-additional-profits-when-stock-prices-jump-and-its-legal/2019/11/06/fc592f58-e493-11e9-a331-2df12d56a80b_story.html
Good art on importance of process dev in biologics. Could it be we have a mgmt team and BOD that actually knows what they are doing?
https://bioprocessintl.com/bioprocess-insider/upstream-downstream-processing/supplier-relationships-critical-in-driving-process-intensification-says-bms/