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Kinda shaping up as a possible cliff dive sort of day. Just stretching it out with much movement up or down. Two hours to go. What say you?
Well, I guess that is it then. Sell all your puts and back up the truck to buy calls. Wonder how he makes money? Maybe by doing the opposite of what he recommends? I think that is called "pumping and dumping".
These are possibly the five most important sentences you'll ever read. Our educators should make a lesson plan on these statements and instill these words in the minds of all students.
"You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity."
"What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving."
"The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else."
"You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it."
and my favorite...
"When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is the beginning of the end of any nation."
"The problem with socialism is that sooner or later, you run out of other people's money." - Maggie Thatcher
A prime example of the idiocy of the "one man, one vote" concept is Maxine Waters. Go ask yourself who are the people responsible for continuing to allow her to represent them? There was a good reason that the founding fathers intended the vote principally for the landowners/property owners, since they were the major stakeholders in society. It is only in our wisdom and superior sense of social justice that now any warm body can vote (and in Chicago-style politics, that is not even a requirement), even though the only reason they can give for their vote is that the candidate "looks good on TV".
Well, is it God's will, or the people's will, or is it that God is only allowing the people to see the error of their choices so that they will make better choices in the future?
Re: Congress, let's not forget that they are merely 535 individual examples of purposeful choices made by the collective electorate, so we can rail against them all we want, but if you voted for the socialists in your state and district on the coattails of the socialist president, then go take a good look in the mirror for who is to blame. We are almost to the tipping point, whereby those who want more and more benefits from government vote in sufficient numbers to keep returning the pols to power who will give them what they want at the expense of others. Once we reach that point, there will be no turning back, hence the need to rush everything through in the first two years, because 2010 is the last chance and if the electorate wises/wakes up, then the gig is up.
Q: What is another name for an "illegal alien"?
A: An "undocumented Democrat".
This will be clear when the push for amnesty begins.
No, I disagree. He will of course take credit for anything positive that happens (if you can believe anything coming out of this government as real/truth), but anything negative that develops going forward will continue to be Bush's fault.
Re: Right versus Wrong, it appears that Mongo can at least count.
Thanks for your post. You really gave me a chuckle...
Re: your post, I think you are a lot smarter than the board moderator and consensus have given you credit for.
Nice dive into the close, but 15 NDX pts does not a crash make. Let's see if we get some carryover before announcing the end of the world as we know it. If tomorrow's jobs numbers are anything less than awful, this will bounce right back up.
Imagine, a jobs summit without inviting the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The arrogance of the Obama Administration is simply breathtaking.
The end could be near, or it could wait until the holidays are over. Fed has hinted at "reverse repo" operations and P/C rations for the SPY, SPX, DJX, and CME SPX Pit Traded options have been heavily bearish for 4 days now.
I have a question (okay, maybe two). If there is general agreement that TA has been neutralized by the Fed-induced market bubble, how is it that EW still applies? In either case, are we not dealing with an outside entity that has so skewed the process and outcome as to make the effort a fool's errand?
Well, while the short term trend over the last 8 sessions is down from the NDX 1814.25 high on 11/16, until the longer term lower trend line is clearly violated, I would have to say this Fed-pumped bear market rally/bubble will continue. There was a minor violation at the bottom of the last IT dip, but all it really did was to make the upper and lower trend lines that define the up channel more parallel. In other words, as long as we remain in the up channel, by definition the trend is still up. However, until a higher high is made, the upper trend line is looking weak and if you connect the last three tops, is beginning to flatten.
I noted on the news today the Fed did a trial "reverse repo", whereby it takes money back out of circulation and off its balance sheet, "just to make sure it worked", so the end may be nearer than anyone thinks. They might possibly be realizing re: the dollar destruction, the gig is up. If Israel takes out Iran's nuclear facilities, which is looking more and more likely, the dollar will skyrocket and the Dow will fall 1000 points. Don't want to be Long for that one...
Possibly, but I think I have to side with the Longs for the short term. The Fed and the Administration will try to keep the smoke and mirrors illusion of a recovering economy going for as long as possible, and they want consumers to spend, spend, spend for the holidays, so I don't see any meaningful correction until Jan at the earliest. As MTar has observed, as long as the Fed keeps printing fiat money, or at the least replaces that which it has already printed that is expiring, the markets will remain inflated. So, sideways to mildly up through Dec, but in Jan, the ice will be thin...
Whether right or not, the hubris here never ceases to amaze me...
While excessive consumption was at the heart of the bubble, it is astounding to me that the cure is thought to be more consumption spurred by government spending, ala "stimulus". If the consumer would just cooperate and start acting like the government, i.e. spending money they don't have and haven't earned yet, our problems would be over. However, people are smarter than the government gives them credit for. They are saving more now to make up for all the wealth lost in the market bubble, those who have lost jobs (~ 1 in 5) aren't spending because they don't have it, and those who haven't lost jobs are not spending because they are afraid they might. The fact is, recession is the cure for excessive consumption, except that the government just can't leave well enough alone and let the economy adjust. And yet, all of the economic forecasts upon which all the budgets and trillion dollar spending bills are based all assume ~ 3% real GDP growth, which IMHO we might not see again in our lifetimes. Last quarter's report was such a joke to anyone with a brain, and yet, the market happily went up. With the debt at $12+ Trillion and with Obama and the socialists' feet on the debt accelerator, we will soon be bankrupt, which will require the government to confiscate even more individual wealth to provide what it deems to be "necessary" services to the unwashed masses.
They are putting all their faith in the strength and resilience of the U.S. economy, the theory being that whatever they need to spend now to get the engine humming again will be dwarfed by increased output down the road. That's a lot like going out on a spending spree on the hope that you are going to get a job, but such is their thinking. Also, they see the enormous individual wealth of the country as largely ill-gotten and more rightfully theirs, to be taken by the power of taxation as necessary for the purpose of redistribution to those on whose backs it was gained. This crowd could not find much fault with the propostion, "From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs."
So, let me get this right. After the 50% retrace, we will go down, unless we continue to go up???
The most troubling aspect of the national debt is its rate of growth and the % of GDP it represents. At the current level of ~ $12.9T for 2009, it is expected to be ~ 90% of GDP, and by 2011 is projected to be > 100% of GDP. In fact, the interest paid for the servicing of the debt is itself a significant part of the annual budget, and unless/until the government can control its spending, it will continue to get worse. But, according to the geniuses in the Obama Administration, we are $12T in debt, and more spending is the solution. Isn't that like throwing gasoline on a fire??? When Obama says healthcare won't add to the deficit, which is a lie itself based on overly rosey administration economic forecasts, what he doesn't say is that they will ultimately raise whatever taxes are required to pay for it. But once it is law and the unwashed masses are sucking at the government teat, the government will own them.
The outstanding national debt as of 18 Nov 2009 at 06:41:54 PM GMT is: $12,038,518,840,589 (give or take; for those not good with numbers, the "12" is *trillions*). This is up over $2T since Obama took office in Jan, and is the fastest rise ever recorded for any president all the way back to Washington, dwarfing even the FDR spending rate in WWII. It is interesting that ~ $726B of that in the form of U.S. treasuries resides on the Fed balance sheet, which means that Bernanke flat out lied to Congress when he stated under oath that the Fed was not monetizing the debt. For this, he gets to be reappointed, but that puts him in good company with the rest of the Obama cronies who wouldn't know (or admit to) the truth if it came up and bit them on the buttocks.
The estimated population of the United States is 307,310,565, so each citizen's share of this debt is $39,173.79, and this isn't just an idle observation. Ever wonder who is on the hook to pay off this massive debt? *You* are, my friend, and with the federal government's unlimited power to tax, if the socialists deem they need it to finance their new world order, they will just come and get it, even if it means taking everything you own. Also note that even if they confiscate 100% of everything that belongs to the "rich" and then take them out and shoot them, there still isn't enough money to pay off the debt, so then they will come after the middle class. At that point, I guess we might as well all just become government employees, because the capitalism that created the wealthiest, most prosperous nation the world has ever seen will have died, and those who put these charlatans in power will bear the responsibility.
But there is another way. If the ballot box doesn't work in 2010/2012, get ready for the second American revolution, if they haven't confiscated your guns by then.
Just checked the NY Fed site which hasn't updated since Dec 2008, so I guess they don't want Joe Public to see what they are doing on a daily basis anymore. Not sure where the Sloshing Report site is getting their info, so their graphs may not be up to date/accurate.
Just follow the money. Perhaps today's "selloff" is related to the fact that someone owes the Fed ~ $8.5B tomorrow...
http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/omops.aspx
Also note the absolute level of the oustanding TOMOs, i.e. ~ 10 times higher than ~ one year ago.
The problem is that Bernanke is clearly in bed with Obama, no doubt taking the female prone position as payback for his upcoming reappointment. He has said repeatedly that he will do "whatever it takes" to keep us from falling into a second Great Depresssion, presumably to keep that stain from his legacy as Fed Chief, and so far has been true to his word. Since the March lows, every time the markets have approached their lower channel trend lines, the Fed fiat money spigot has been turned on full blast with very predictable results. The super-inflated P/E ratios that Poker noted clearly indicate the market bubble that has been created with money that simply doesn't exist for real and is just a number on the Fed balance sheet that will have to be recouped at some point (i.e. the money will have to come back out of the market to pay it back). If the systematic destruction of the dollar with the attendant double digit inflation just around the corner is the pain *everyone* has to bear to prevent an economic collapse, then in Ben's mind that is the lesser of evils and is just fine. Also, Ben knows as well as anyone that we will never be able to pay off the massive debt that Obama and his socialist cronies continue to rack up, and the best way of dealing with it is to inflate our way out of it. Unfortunately, that will work only as long as our lenders (China and anyone else stupid enough to buy treasuries) don't decide they are tired of getting screwed because of our inability as a nation to live within our means. Maggie Thatcher got it right, "The problem with socialism is that sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
No crash again today. Seems that timing thing continues to confound. Just curious, where was the SPX when you first said wave iii would begin "tomorrow". What are the puts worth now that were bought that day?
I'm Long for maybe the next 15 min.
A good read...
August 31, 2009
Another Failed Presidency
By Geoffrey P. Hunt
Barack Obama is on track to have the most spectacularly failed presidency since Woodrow Wilson.
In the modern era, we've seen several failed presidencies--led by Jimmy Carter and LBJ. Failed presidents have one strong common trait-- they are repudiated, in the vernacular, spat out. Of course, LBJ wisely took the exit ramp early, avoiding a shove into oncoming traffic by his own party. Richard Nixon indeed resigned in disgrace, yet his reputation as a statesman has been partially restored by his triumphant overture to China.
George Bush Jr didn't fail so much as he was perceived to have been too much of a patrician while being uncomfortable with his more conservative allies. Yet George Bush Sr is still perceived as a man of uncommon decency, loyal to the enduring American character of rugged self-determination, free markets, and generosity. George W will eventually be treated more kindly by historians as one whose potential was squashed by his own compromise of conservative principles, in some ways repeating the mistakes of his father, while ignoring many lessons in executive leadership he should have learned at Harvard Business School. Of course George W could never quite overcome being dogged from the outset by half of the nation convinced he was electorally illegitimate -- thus aiding the resurgence of the liberal wing of the Democratic Party.
But, Barack Obama is failing. Failing big. Failing fast. And failing everywhere: foreign policy, domestic initiatives, and most importantly, in forging connections with the American people. The incomparable Dorothy Rabinowitz in the Wall Street Journal put her finger on it: He is failing because he has no understanding of the American people, and may indeed loathe them. Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard says he is failing because he has lost control of his message, and is overexposed. Clarice Feldman of American Thinker produced a dispositive commentary showing that Obama is failing because fundamentally he is neither smart nor articulate; his intellectual dishonesty is conspicuous by its audacity and lack of shame.
But, there is something more seriously wrong: How could a new president riding in on a wave of unprecedented promise and goodwill have forfeited his tenure and become a lame duck in six months? His poll ratings are in free fall. In generic balloting, the Republicans have now seized a five point advantage. This truly is unbelievable. What's going on?
No narrative. Obama doesn't have a narrative. No, not a narrative about himself. He has a self-narrative, much of it fabricated, cleverly disguised or written by someone else. But this self-narrative is isolated and doesn't connect with us. He doesn't have an American narrative that draws upon the rest of us. All successful presidents have a narrative about the American character that intersects with their own where they display a command of history and reveal an authenticity at the core of their personality that resonates in a positive endearing way with the majority of Americans. We admire those presidents whose narratives not only touch our own, but who seem stronger, wiser, and smarter than we are. Presidents we admire are aspirational peers, even those whose politics don't align exactly with our own: Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, Harry Truman, Ike, Reagan.
But not this president. It's not so much that he's a phony, knows nothing about economics, is historically illiterate, and woefully small minded for the size of the task-- all contributory of course. It's that he's not one of us. And whatever he is, his profile is fuzzy and devoid of content, like a cardboard cutout made from delaminated corrugated paper. Moreover, he doesn't command our respect and is unable to appeal to our own common sense. His notions of right and wrong are repugnant and how things work just don't add up. They are not existential. His descriptions of the world we live in don't make sense and don't correspond with our experience.
In the meantime, while we've been struggling to take a measurement of this man, he's dissed just about every one of us--financiers, energy producers, banks, insurance executives, police officers, doctors, nurses, hospital administrators, post office workers, and anybody else who has a non-green job. Expect Obama to lament at his last press conference in 2012: "For those of you I offended, I apologize. For those of you who were not offended, you just didn't give me enough time; if only I'd had a second term, I could have offended you too."
Mercifully, the Founders at the Constitutional Convention in 1787 devised a useful remedy for such a desperate state--staggered terms for both houses of the legislature and the executive. An equally abominable Congress can get voted out next year. With a new Congress, there's always hope of legislative gridlock until we vote for president again two short years after that.
Yes, small presidents do fail, Barack Obama among them. The coyotes howl but the wagon train keeps rolling along.
[editor's note: The author is not the not the same person as Geoffrey P Hunt, who works at the Institute for Scientific Analysis as a senior research scientist.]
Looked more to me like a five year old jumping in a rain puddle.
Even the Fed knows they can't keep printing fiat dollars indefinitely, and all that they have printed over the last several months to reinflate/prop the market will have to be sucked back out at some point. Their hope is that Joe Sixpack will be fooled into putting his real money in again to replace their phoney money, and so far, the charade seems to be working. The only problem is that poor old Joe will ultimately be left holding the bag again. But, Bernanke doesn't really give a hoot about investors, witness their treatment of the various stockholders during the meltdown. It is only union/worker interests that are mandatory to protect.
Got to give it to you, Poker. You are nothing if not consistent.
I am pleased that our dialogs have had some positive influence...
Do you really think it won't be cooked? Real unemployment is more like 17% anyway. I am sure the BHO/Chicago crowd has made phone calls and reminded the BLS who signs their paychecks and that the enforcers know where they live. No offense to anyone from the Windy City, but why are your politicans so universally regarded as corrupt?
Of course, how obvious. I should have thought of that. Hah, hah. You are a funny guy...
Of course, it might be as simple as dollar up, market down.
Perhaps the market has figured out that a one day run based on bogus GDP numbers driven primarily by Fed funny money and no visible recovery on the jobs front is simply not sustainable.
Seems the option traders agree. The DJX P/C ratio ended the day at a whopping *11.83*.
For the coming economic apocalypse, what you should be looking for is a good piece of land with enough timber to provide a self-sustaining source for heat/cooking and enough cultivated acreage for growing vegetables and raising chickens for food and barter. Otherwise, you will be standing in line waiting for Obama to feed you.
Well, that should be an easy trade then. Just buy the 2X Short Gold ETF (DZZ).
NDX is sitting right at the lower boundary of its multi-month uptrend channnel (3rd day down).