I find it peculiar that all of these random, non-shareholders are so interested in this Q. They spend hours of each day trying to manipulate longs who have made it quite clear they are not selling.
In my opinion, I would say the odds of a positive outcome for shareholders is slightly better than 50/50. I want to state the odds as more favourable, but this is under CCAA and anything could quite literally happen.
I have no contact with anyone in the company, but I have worked extensively in Sarnia. I am a biochemist located in Toronto and I have worked for large, multinational, public chemical companies my entire 9.5 year career (Therapure/DuPont/Univar). I know how difficult it is to build this type of operation and launch the commercialization of a bio-produced, future building block chemical. Fuuck, one of our warehouses empty is worth $100M! Those not in the chemical industry just don't know how great an impact these materials have on our daily lives.
I have done a great deal of DD for myself. Do I have Canadian corporate insolvency experience? Not really, but I have reviewed the public documents with a friend who is a M&A lawyer. What I found interesting was how much weight they put on PWC's evaluation of the company. Cash flow issues are nothing new to the chemical industry. Projects are born with a need to finance large and risky projects with a far-off pay-back horizon. This is because the industry's discoveries and advances have been the result of substantial research and development efforts, while the industry's production has been highly capital intensive. BioAmber have barely been operating (25-50%) in Sarnia for less than 3 years. They hit 70% capacity for the first time Q1 2018. Those of us who have researched (bio)succinic acid know the huge, emerging growth potential of the market. BioAmber is a pioneer in the industry and still is regarded as a leader in sustainable chemicals.
The availability of financial resources, and the conditions under which these resources are provided, will ultimately save BioAmber. The management will be long gone, but the company will survive. The Government of Canada (again) and Cargill will step up.
All imo.
SS