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Not all companies, especially not small biotech's. Advaxis (including Ken) has skipped them before.
Why pay the money to have one if you have nothing to say...
Just don't look at the stock price.... eek
No problem. Tune in if you can, it's just starting.
Did anyone actually listen to the CC this morning
I thought the CC was at 11am EST today... ie starting in 2 min.
Nothing makes sense with this company at this point. You just have to go with the flow.
Current burn rate was artificially low given AMGN was still funding trials.
The low burn rate was also related it being "net cash used" and not cash burn. It was the cash out, but that was net of cash in from the dilution etc. Terrible math.
I guess we already knew this was likely, but hope is sure one hell of a drug.
I know - I chuckled too. I think we're in trouble....
“We are actively reviewing our plans to finance the areas of the business where we feel there is a strong likelihood of us achieving our mission of improving the lives of people with cancer and their loved ones.” Ken Berlin
Lovely.
Lol! That's perfect.
I think we should forward this to the company to let them know, that we already know.
Yep, manipulating the company to what they want to offer in the next offering.
So are you saying people should sell their shares?
Reality check at this moment: PPS $2.49
DOWN over 6%!!
That's a fact.
It's only HFT's and manipulators targeting the company unfairly that are causing the decline.
Completely unprovable
But it's fact
Company is fine!
Your DD is lacking. Please review what has been communicated wrt cash on hand (Jan), in addition to the raise (Apr).
LOL! I did do my DD which is exactly in line with what I said. They have around 26mm (32 + 9 - 15) in the bank with a cash burn rate of 45mm a year. That burn rate should be considered conservative too given that we're now covering NEO costs as well as ramping HOT.
You're welcome tell me where my DD is wrong in saying they don't have enough cash for the year? Your definition of near-term bankruptcy may differ but that doesn't change the situation this company is in.
If you have new info then by all means let us know.
issuing a statement that he thinks Advaxis will one day a leader in the immune oncology space is also ver weird. If the company is indeed failing and he knows it why issue that type of statement and put your reputation on the line?
Honestly, who cares what he says? It doesn't mean anything and his reputation is already on the line as he's said this for years now. The results are all that matter and he's certainly not going to bash the company or say nothing about the science as long as he's still involved (advisory board) as that would be foolish.
First: to be very clear, I do not have any special information or communication that any investor doesn't already have or can have access to
Fifth: From what I understand, the imminence of bankruptcy and the lack of progress is completely and utterly false.
Why? Again, you're not saying anything. The bankruptcy and lack of progress is based on the facts on the ground. It doesn't take much to realize that the company doesn't even have the cash to survive the year and a market cap that makes raising anything reasonable next to impossible.
If you don't have inside information then is it just a "feeling" you have that makes the bankruptcy prediction utterly false?
As for leaving, people switch jobs for many reasons and not only because where they are at is failing. Many successful officers moved from google/Apple/Facebook to other companies. There could be many reasons for that.
All those companies are leaders in their field. They're all cash positive and are still considered growth stocks. Losing your lead engineer/manager/executive at a company like that seems reasonable given all the positives.
A better comparison would be of a biotech company on the verge of bankruptcy losing their lead CSO at the probably the worst "financial" moment in the companies history. If you can find that, and the company survived/announced major cash deal, then there's a fair comparison.
Losing Petit can't look good for the company at this point, it makes no sense given all the facts on the ground.
Based on what I know to be true, assertions implying the imminence of bankruptcy is completely false.
And what could this truth based assertion possibly be based on? You have inside information?
Yes it is for the AXAL HPV head and neck study, as I mentioned before they probably were waiting for the clinical hold to lift for AXAL to go ahead with the partnership terms.
Ok - that's totally fair.
But even with this delayed IST partnership announcement i'm not sure it has the power to change the direction of the company. The stock may spike briefly from traders, but it doesn't solve any of the issues plaguing the company. We already have too many trials currently going.
Hopefully they have something other than this partnership to announce soon (e.g. HOT, NEO, AXAL-HPV, AXAL-PSA)
The latest presentation says clearly on slide 30 (anticipated catalyst) that they will announce a partner for AXAL-HPV.
This same corporate presentation said Q1 2019 for a partner back in January. That slide now says 1H 2019 and it's not for the P3 AXAL, it's for H&N and is not supposed to bring in a DIME. This doesn't help a company that has next to zero cash and won't last the year.
The company is on the brink of collapse. No one is buying.
At least Ken didn't push the last raise with warrants, but I have a feeling that was because he wasn't incentivized to. His 20 million dollar raise w/warrants was a must for him to achieve his $150k bonus.
I think he knows this company is toast but still wants the paycheck. Petit finally accepted it.
Except it obviously is hard. Lol!
Closed at $2.76, which is just $.04 off the all time low for the company.
Bulls said this stock was a buy at $150 (pre split) only a few years ago. My how times have changed.
Maybe, but what does it look like? Does it seem more likely Merck has interest and wanted Petit, the mind behind the science they want, gone as CSO? Or that Petit stopped buying and is leaving before the ship sinks? This science is his baby.
It's not hard to see what's more likely.
How can you be in discussion with multiple parties when Merck is in combo with every trial?
IDK, you tell me why they had that on their corporate presentation? They obviously took it off so maybe they realized that they can only partner HOT with Merck now.
That's great news, everything rides on Merck what are the odds they play ball? So far nothing...
Remember they were supposed to have 4 or 5 HOT trials up and running by EOY 2018. Now those are all scheduled as per the Business Plan for 2019.
How much clearer can it be that this management is a disaster and utterly incapable of hitting milestones, meeting deadlines, signing deals, making prudent decisions etc. The only silver lining for poor execution is it's delaying their cash burn for awhile.
Just wait and see where they end up in 2019.
This company is screaming that they're basically finished other than the final paychecks the employees would like to collect.
12 million free shares passed out during the last raise, what could they possibly be thinking other than broadcasting how desperate they're!?
yeah gajj, that HPV H&N partnership comment originally said Q1 2019 back in the January corporate presentation. That date was obviously missed. Should u believe anything they say at this point?
Also - that particular partnership is not supposed to bring in any cash. Of course, as usual, anything is possible.
Sorry - still don't see any difference related to partnering on the presentation.
They continue to ramp HOT and pay for NEO without slowing down so that points to something, but this has been the same story for years now...
It does look like they removed the bullet point on HOT being in discussion with "multiple parties".
If the market holds up then yes, otherwise i'd be nervous. The inflection point has happened, it's just unfortunate it happened during such a tumultuous time in the market, especially for tech.
What is the reason Amgen bailed? Well, it doesn’t really matter, the share price is low. That makes little sense. Let’s just not discuss anything, and everyone can just repeat all day, “the share price is low, the share price is low ...?”
HUH??? The discussion is about how the company has blown their 100's of millions and how they've been unable to find any partnerships or funding from anything other than dilution. The stock price is low as long as they can't partner/sell/license their tech. That's the discussion by most people.
How is management signaling a partnership? Has something changed in how they've acted over the last few years?
Thank you, Hov. Appreciate the response.
Happy to here that the low P1 enrollment for NEO is nothing to be concerned about.
Unfortunately for ADXS they're going to need knockout data from HOT/NEO to get this thing out of its hole. There may not be enough time left given their situation for them to even see that. Petit gone also doesn't look good.
Hi Hov,
Couple quick questions if you have a chance:
1.Why are there so few patients in the P1 NEO trial? Was this to be expected?
2. Any thoughts on the updated (post AACR) NEO bullet points from the recent press release? Info below:
- Data from the two MSS colorectal cancer patients dosed with ADXS-NEO at 1x108 CFU demonstrated increased CD8+ T cell infiltration in the tumor microenvironment after three doses of ADXS-NEO. Both patients had metastatic colorectal cancer, which is considered to be a “cold” tumor and typically exhibits little CD8+ T cell infiltration and resistance to immunotherapy, yet both successfully transitioned from “cold” tumors into “hot” tumors with ADXS-NEO therapy. An estimated 80-85% of colorectal cancer patients are MSS.
- Two patients (one treated at 1x109 and one at 1x108 CFU) achieved stable disease per RECIST 1.1 criteria. Another patient has yet to be evaluated but has experienced normal performance status and an active lifestyle over the three months of therapy with ADXS-NEO at 1x108 CFU.
Yes - it was revenue recognition of cash that they already received. No NEW cash actually came in. Agreed.
He threw AXAL under the bus & proclaimed that NEO & HOT were the next big ADXS "LM technology platform" vaccines that could cure cancer. The market didn't fall for Berlin's con game & collapsed ADXS stock form a split adjusted $24.25 to $2.95 today,
His call to shelve AXAL was crazy. Why would a CEO state that on a CC then backtrack a few months later with some crazy FDA timeline adjustment...unless there was a partner asking for it.
Almost impossible to believe these guys anymore on anything. This whole thing probably is a ruse at this point to keep their paychecks coming in. Good call.
Add a melting market cap and a $45mm a year cash burn. This company looks in every single possible way that it's toast.
Now a reverse-merger might be its last prayer...
NEO was billed ADXS' next gen (i.e. last hope). That all changed when Amgen saw the initial data and bailed.
If drug companies could tell whether a drug would be successful or not after only 2 or 3 patients are dosed in a P1, we wouldn't have as many P2/P3 trials happening and costs for bringing a drug to market w/their associated trials would be much, much lower.
I will say Amgen leaving was disastrous and Advaxis won't last flipping the bill for it much longer.
Computex keynote will be this coming Monday where the CEO of AMD will be launching their new zen 2 processors (one mentioned in article). This will be their most important launch in over a decade. All leaks point to positive.
If NEO is not garnering any attention, why should HOT? Efficacy wise isn't it by definition inferior to NEO due to it being off the shelf..
https://www.forbes.com/sites/antonyleather/2019/05/23/amd-in-shock-intel-smashing-performance-claim-is-cinebench-score-really-true/
Chart toping performance in a consumer product and at consumer prices. I guess this is partially why they're projecting YE revenues of >7$ billion after a dismal y/y Q1 and fairly weak Q2 guidance.
They really need to partner HOT and repartner NEO
People have said that Ken is either blatantly reckless by keeping NEO going or he's already got a partner lined up. Bottom line is time is running so short at this point that there may not be enough time left for a partner to be found and whatever company wants these assets (if at all) could just wait it out.
If this company went under I would think the assets should be worth more than 25 million dollars (current market cap) so I'm just holding. But then the dilution game comes into play and maybe i'd only see a much smaller fraction of it than what I'd see today. Terrible situation.