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The stock price can move in mysterious ways for someone that's new here, but if you stick around for long enough you start to notice patterns.
One that I've noticed is that it tends to follow the market unless interrupted by an important PR. Market is up since June and so is this stock, but if market sentiment sours ahead of the next trial results I would assume that it will bring the stock price down with it.
After that, it all depends on what the new data says. Potential loss is 100% but potential gain is much higher than that.
A lot of analysts are no better at predicting price movements than a monkey throwing darts on a board.
It's better to read the scientific articles, look at the data and form your own opinion rather than putting your trust in a stranger that gets paid to churn out reports no matter how right or wrong they turn out to be.
I hope anyone investing in this company, long or short, has done their own research rather than follow what someone else says.
Not sure why people keep bringing up that buy rating as if it means anything.
There's more than enough information in the ibox that should help investors form their own opinion about what the company is worth without having to listen to some bottom ranked analyst.
Diseases.
Alzheimer’s, Fragile X and Multiple Sclerosis.
"According to TipRanks.com, McCarthy is ranked 0 out of 5 stars with an average return of -36.4% and a 19.3% success rate."
lol
My guess is they launch the FXS trial first since there's no additional work to be done on the AD trial until they receive data in November.
It is strange how there's no option chain for this even after being listed for 8 months.
Where did you read that? I have never heard of institutions being blocked from premarket trading.
I think it's the opposite. Institutions like to buy in bulk and outside regular trading hours to avoid moving the price too much.
It's the retail investors that tend to stick to regular trading hours.
Nah, it's most likely just some institutional buying. It doesn't take much to move this stock.
Biotech index and other markets are also trending up since June which will help push the price up.
Market info in the ibox should be updated with the latest numbers now.
Dr. Alkon being quoted in Science and NPR articles is way more respectable than any stock promotion by Benzinga, Maxim or Ameritrade. I wouldn't take that buy rating seriously considering what an extremely awful track record that analyst has. Their last buy rating was also conveniently set at double the price at that time for no real reason.
Good to know there's an expected readout in early December though, and I'm glad to see the doctor still has some pep in his step considering his advanced age.
Low market cap and lack of market interest is because of two previous trials showing disappointing results.
Their reputation is in the gutter and talking about successful subgroups is not going to cut it for serious hedge funds and big pharma companies. CRTX had a similar valuation after failing their AD trial.
I'm not expecting this train to leave the station unless they can publish convincing new results in a few months. Institutions can afford to wait for that risk to go away before they step in.
I'm guessing it's 3 groups with 4 patients each. 15mcg, 20mcg, and 25mcg.
IIRC they switched between these doses in the CU patients trying to figure out what to use for the first P2.
10Q looks alright.
A few notes:
- Dose ranging study will enroll 12 patients, first study site was initiated last month, and expected cost is $2 million
- All of the grant money has been used
- They're still paying consultants with warrants instead of cash
- They plan to initiate a P1 Fragile X trial this year
- Future MS trial is being worked on
- They have about $28 million in cash, and I'm guessing they'll have about $22 million by January
- 6,840,629 shares, 5,161,457 warrants, and 130,000 options outstanding, which means about 12.1 million shares fully diluted
Sure, but they still need to optimize dosage, figure out manufacturing, and run a registrational trial, not to mention raise more money.
They're already working with the FDA to get it to market as fast as possible, and I doubt a designation will speed things up dramatically.
I'm sure they can figure all of that out before any future P3 trial is completed.
Even if all goes well, I don't see this drug hitting the market until 2025 at the earliest.
The PR mentions facilities in Hyderabad, India; Albany, NY, and Grafton, WI, so the last two are probably where the domestic manufacturing is located.
First batch was manufactured by AMRI:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201013005116/en/BryoLogyx-Announces-Completion-of-World%E2%80%99s-First-GMP-Synthesis-of-Bryostatin-1
Now they can just send the recipe to any manufacturer with the resources available to manufacture it.
They mentioned in the call that establishing bioequivalence and manufacturing the drug should be a relatively quick process that won't affect their timeline.
What's really exciting about this is the potential paradigm shift it could bring to the industry if results are good.
Swallowing a pill to repair brain damage sounds like something out of a science fiction novel, so it's easy to understand why so many people are skeptical.
I certainly wouldn't believe it unless I had personally read the many scientific papers about it.
Stock price hit double digits earlier this year so I don't see why it couldn't do so again if market conditions improve.
You could certainly make a lot of money if you time the swings right, but I'm not that type of trader and would rather stick to good old-fashioned fundamentals.
I've been saying it for a while now but this stock is going nowhere until those results are out later this year.
Apparently he had sold almost all of it by February this year:
https://fintel.io/so/us/ptpi
Ouch!
Whatever he had, he would've been better off selling his shares immediately after the split rather than wait for this buyout.
Maybe the spin off was a way to get rid of the shell company and its history by combining it with Metuchen while giving the business a fresh start under a new name, in which case I may be wrong about Silverman.
I'm still suspicious of him though.
Fair enough. I guess it makes sense if he was the last guy on the list and once he said no they decided to PR it.
Telling your biggest investor about an offering just two hours before it goes public though? You don't think that's a bit out of the ordinary?
Yes. Silverman didn't commit a crime. It was Haywood that did.
But the information was shared over the phone two hours before the offering PR went up and after the stock had risen dramatically from the previous grant PR released three hours before.
Informing investors about a future offering is perfectly normal, but it's the timing that makes this thing stink.
What really bothers me about this is the chairman of the board sharing confidential information with an outsider over the phone.
Mr. Silverman is a pest that needs to go and more investors need to vote against his reappointment at the next shareholder meeting.
Justice Department getting involved now:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/exclusive-cassava-sciences-faces-us-criminal-probe-tied-alzheimers-drug-sources-2022-07-27/
Not interested in SAVA as a company but anything that helps kill off the amyloid theory once and for all is a good thing for the industry.
Wasn't able to call in this time, sorry. Would be nice if someone else could give us a quick recap though.
"Synaptogenix Announces Changes to Scientific Advisory Board in Preparation for Phase 2 Data"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/synaptogenix-announces-changes-to-scientific-advisory-board-in-preparation-for-phase-2-data-301593226.html
There is no such thing as "peeking" at the data during a double-blinded placebo-controlled trial, and it's certainly not a valid explanation for any stock price moves or business decisions no matter how many times it gets repeated on this board.
There is an independent safety board that checks for safety issues and the trial is conducted by an independent third party that under no circumstances will send the data to the company until the last patient has received their final dose.
https://www.worldwide.com/about-us/
WCT has no incentive whatsoever to breach protocol and ruin the reputation they have built over several decades because of some random biotech startup.
"Potential fabrication in research images threatens key theory of Alzheimer’s disease"
https://www.science.org/content/article/potential-fabrication-research-images-threatens-key-theory-alzheimers-disease
"Synaptogenix Announces Corporate Update Conference Call"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/synaptogenix-announces-corporate-update-conference-call-301591017.html
Give it another month or so. Trials have to be manually reviewed before they're published on the site.
Also worth mentioning is that several of these patents should be eligible for a 5 year patent term extension.
https://www.alacrita.com/whitepapers/pharmaceutical-patent-term-extension-an-overview
Timing is just a coincidence. They have already been granted several patents before and waiting for another one makes no sense, not to mention the original application for the latest patent grant was filed in 2008.
From the description:
"This is a continuation application of U.S. application Ser. No. 16/400,132, filed May 1, 2019, which is a continuation application of U.S. application Ser. No. 14/803,762, filed Jul. 20, 2015, now U.S. Pat. No. 10,323,011, which is a divisional application of U.S. application Ser. No. 13/401,459, filed Feb. 21, 2012, now U.S. Pat. No. 9,119,825, which is a continuation application of U.S. application Ser. No. 12/510,681, filed Jul. 28, 2009, now U.S. Pat. No. 8,163,800, which claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Application No. 61/084,172, filed Jul. 28, 2008, all of which are incorporated herein by reference."
"Synaptogenix Advances Dosing of First Patient in Dose Optimization Clinical Trial in Preparation for NIH-Sponsored, Phase 2 Alzheimer's Disease Trial Data"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/synaptogenix-advances-dosing-of-first-patient-in-dose-optimization-clinical-trial-in-preparation-for-nih-sponsored-phase-2-alzheimers-disease-trial-data-301589937.html
I would say the opposite is more likely. Bear markets make investors pull their money out of riskier investments so they can reallocate them to safer options.
Biggest institutional investor so far is a passive Vanguard index fund that will sell shares when the stock market goes down and vice versa if it goes up.
I would say institutional sentiment is more important than retail sentiment. Everyone on this board combined have less purchasing power than a single institutional investor that could easily buy 10% of the company without even blinking.
There's a few hedge funds that have dipped their toes in the water and bought a few shares in the company, but they're clearly waiting for more convincing results before they decide to go for a swim.