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Typical action anytime news of any raise comes out lol given the way Trulieve stock is normally treated, it seems to be holding pretty well lol so far. I’m all for cheapies though.
Oh mama. I’m all about unreasonable sell off, it’s almost payday to top off some dry powder buys lol.
Same thoughts. At the latest Q3 reports 3rd week of Nov. we’ll see, looking forward to it.
By end of week perhaps.
My thoughts as well. This offering is presented a little different as the last, given that the details don’t specify price on the secured notes or how many warrants are attached.
Kim has been presenting at a cyclic rate these past few weeks, surely there are things in the works.
We will see. The prospectus still leaves 190m on the table after last raise. Last Q I think we had 17m in free cash flow after all was said and done, 30some mil in ebitda just spit balling off the top of my head.
68+17+17= 102 Million. Add in this raise at whatever amount it amounts, and free cash flow from Q3... yea somethings in the works, stacking cash.
Very interested to see where this goes, because they sure as heck ain’t dishing out shares like candy, these moves seem to be with shareholders and O/S kept in mind.
Well this will be interesting.
Important to remember this is minimally dilutive. In assuming it’s similar or the same as the last ones terms.
Last one was 9.75% Notes with 21 warrants attached, exercisable at 12.98USD.
What will be interesting, is whether or not this new one will be More or Less then 12.98USD on the warrants.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/trulieve-announces-proposed-public-offering-of-debenture-units-838758134.html?fbclid=IwAR2lp8cnii4NzRhsVU5T3uR9xkacQCKZks23FpvwjiXPcu6mltg-d63WzqM
It appears Panama City beach #38 opens on Tuesday. Keep an eye out for the news.
I never say never anymore with these stocks lol but I agree it’s highly unlikely. I would love to see 17+ by eoy or 20.00 going into Q12020.
Exciting times to be here, Gonna be great to post a reply to you on here saying “Holdhigh, remember when we got this monster for 8 bucks a share!” Lol
Yup I think flower will increase as well, it’s just early to tell regarding a consistent 6000+ dispensed. I don’t think I need to say I’m big on Trulieve lol. I’ve got faith it will hold and increase, as long as there’s no blips along the way. Trulieve executes. I have a feeling that Q4 will be big, especially due to holidays and such.
It would be great to see them upgrade guidance. But will be just as awesome if they beat guidance by 15-20 Million eoy.
Some people bashing around saying we retrace to mid 8’s. I’m not seeing it. I think we will be seeing 11.50 - 12’s in the near future.
Holdhigh.
Like you displayed, there is a number of ways to forecast a rough number in order to get an idea of what’s to come. Some more accurate then others. I tend to try and keep a conservative approach just because I personally prefer to undershoot what I expect rather then overshoot.
I take Mgs and OZs dispensed, and convert them to grams for each week reported by OMMU. Then I use some rough averages via the Trulieve website on product cost. 70/g THC 14/g flower 50/g CBD. I add the months weeks reported together, and get a picture drawn from that as to what I expect for the Q.
I also add in Connecticut’s expected 9mil a year revenue, by just dividing it by 4, or 2.25mil a Q. Will be nice to see the revenues from Connecticut reflect this quarter to draw a better picture as well.
Like we saw happen with flower dispensed, pulling back due to shortage, week from week varies. Since that shortage bled into Q4 a little... I’d really like to see a sustained 6000+ Ozs dispensed going forward, or at least high 5,000’s.
Regardless, we are on track to meet high end guidance, if not beat it.
Yup. I think #38 will open in the panhandle before end of October. Followed by 3 in nov and 3 in December. 44 by eoy. Just like you posted awhile back.
Haha yea man. 10 years is a loooong time!
Selling property to IIPR.
I like the well thought out speculation on how it could be good or bad. It’s important to look at things from all angles.
I don’t have much to add, except that we should remember, and correct me if I’m wrong. But nothing says these terms can’t be renegotiated in reference to the annual percentage in rent. After the initial 10yr... when deciding on whether or not to extend 5yrs. I think it’s reasonable to assume that a lot will have changed. And IIPR will want to keep a solid relationship with Trulieve, and be willing to renegotiate terms to continue renting at a percentage in line with bank loans in order to keep Trulieves business longterm.
Just some thoughts.
This weeks dispensed figures.
Important to note that Kim tweeted we would see an increase in flower. This definitely supports that. Up 2000Ozs in flower this week.
https://s27415.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/ommu_updates/2019/102519-OMMU-Update.pdf
anybody can say it’s gonna “crash” after not moving in either direction for awhile lol chill out. The “crash” would be a pull back to mid/low 9’s. IF it happens. Doubtful we pull back hard into the low 8’s without reason.
Some good points brought up. A lot can change in 10 years. And hopefully Trulieve is raking in billions by then haha.
IIPR news. Correct me if I’m wrong.
So what the news means is IIPR bought a 150k sqft facility from Trulieve for 17 Million USD. And then leased it back to them for a term of 10 years with two 5 year term options to extend at 11% interest.
So Trulieve gets 17Million Cash for the deal to put towards funding and growth. Effectively reducing the need of immediate dilutive financing for continued internal/external growth.
Pros for Trulieve
- Additional free cash flow
- secured 150k sqft in industrial property at a competitive rate
- improving relationship with established REIT
Pros for IIPR
- annual revenue at 11% of 17mil (purchase price) for at least ten years.
- 1,870,000(10) = 18,700,000 in revenues. A 1.7 Million dollar profit.
- should Trulieve elect to continue the lease for the additional two, 5yr terms. IIPR would profit an additional 18.7 Million dollars. Or a total over 20yrs of 20,400,000USD.
I wonder what the options might be in the future with SAFE act passage or other legislation increasing banking access. Like if Trulieve could just out right buy the property back at the end of the initial 10yr term.
Or if the 11% interest rate could be adjusted when considering agreement to another 5yr term to be within a competitive rate in regards to banking access that will almost surely be available.
Holdhigh. Personally I agree.
Yea I’m not poppin off at you. Truth is nobody knows how it will pan out. Only what they think or hear others think. But what I know IS facts, is that suspicious or whatever. Their hasn’t been any evidence of involvement and they are not connected or involved in the case against Burnett at this time.
And if I had evidence that one of the main investigators “made a mistake” and that he can’t testify, which bases the charges brought onto burnette off false testimony. I would want the easy way out too, and dismiss the whole thing lol less work, less trials.
Let’s keep politics off this board, unless it is something related to MJ.
Regarding my post on the Burnette case. I posted it so others that care enough to read, can read through the BS assumptions going around trying to connect it. If you read the motion to dismiss and do your DD.
You are right, that Trulieve will go on regardless. But again it’s not connected, no evidence other then opinions from others. Of which most aren’t invested.
And “taking a hit” isn’t really 1%.
Will this pull back? Yea I think so, maybe before or right after earnings. But it will be short lived. Hard to see this under 10USD by eoy. I see it building new lows in the 12’s soon.
My opinion anyway.
Helpful to read the motion to dismiss that was put out yesterday. Starts at page 11 I believe.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6506501-J-T-Burnette-Defendant-s-Motion-to-Dismiss.html#document/p14
Thanks Rogjr. That’s definitely what I’m expecting, a nice surge in figures dispensed Nov through the rest of the year. Appreciate the update
Yeaaa it’s pretty obvious now they had a hiccup somewhere along the way with flower production. And also starting to look a lot more obvious on why maybe the COO “resigned” and the management switch up that occurred.
Numbers are still awesome no doubt. But should be much better. With the drastic increase in cultivation capacity to 1.6mil sqft, we should be seeing results from that.
Hopefully in November they pick up their game and get those Ozs dispensed back up to 5000+ preferably 6000+. And get a new average weekly dispensed THC mgs into the 50-60mil range.
October has pretty much been a stall and bleed on flower.
He called the resignation awhile back.
Drew5. I completely agree. Can’t forget with the 750k sqft indoor grow, will bring our total cultivation capacity to around a whopping 2.35 Million sqft. JUST to supply Florida. And cultivation and processing infrastructure will only continue to near double every year imo.
Yeaa that’s where I got it, screen shot it, and sent it too IR asking about accuracy vs the posted CSE number.
IR said the website is accurate, and CSE must not have updated it yet. Which leads one to believe a good amount of shares have been absorbed. Which would be good.
But I’d go with what’s posted on the CSE and most recent Form 7 over the Trulieve website, and IR.
IR got with me and stated issued and outstanding is wrong and needs to be updated. Funny the Form 7 is bugged up too if that was accurate information from IR
Issued and Outstanding is 44,879,075.
CSE website shows 35,822,337. August Form 7 shows the same.
Company website shows the correct updated Issued and outstanding. IR confirmed it via email, stated they submitted it, but CSE must not have updated it yet.
This means 9,056,738 shares have been absorbed into the tradable float.
Looks like my post got removed lol
Very much doable, love this company.
Check out Arcviews Twitter for some of Kim Rivers comments during a discussion regarding running a cannabis business and opinions on the industry.
https://mobile.twitter.com/arcviewgroup
She did say 44 by end of year. Now that we are at 37, that leaves 7 more to go. 2-3 a month and Trulieve will meet their mark by eoy. Including Cali and Connecticut, would make 46 dispensaries in operation by end of 2019.
Also note that Kim has mentioned in the past that the average Florida dispensary brings around 7mil a year. 7(44) = 308 Million in revs going into 2020. Low float, shareholder friendly moves.
Have to wait and see. But also let’s not forget Kim delivers keynote speech today at Arcview, which will bring a lot of attention. And then the next day I believe she’s participating in a Cannacord genuity Conference.
I’m all for buyout, should the price be at a large premium. I believe Trulieves current leadership wouldn’t settle for a cheap buyout, they know what they are making. This company is in route to a Billion a year in revs on a profitable path, quite possibly within two years.
Big money, is sitting back and watching. And you can bet on it, that they are swimming around Trulieve and making plans.
Safe Banking Act is looking good, who knows if it will pass or not but I have a good feeling about it. Kim Rivers delivering a keynote speech this coming week and meeting with big institutions that I’m willing to bet are waiting on the Safe Act to pass and making plans on investing, partnering, or funding the top performers.
Interesting times ahead.
hahaha
I’m looking forward to nerd raging out on some of these numbers towards the end of the month when I’m back at work.
I can say though that the mgs dispensed this week can be attributed to the buy two get one free sale, however flower ozs dispensed was an impressive increase as well.
Loving it