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.... and an opposing view ...
Why Iran's oil bourse can't break the buck
By F William Engdahl
A number of writings have recently appeared with the thesis that the announced plans of the Iranian government to institute a Tehran oil bourse, perhaps as early as this month, is the real hidden reason behind the evident march to war on Iran by the Anglo-American powers. The thesis is simply wrong for many reasons, not least that war on Iran has been in planning since the 1990s as an integral part of the United States' Greater Middle East strategy.
More significant, the oil-bourse argument is a red herring that diverts attention from the real geopolitical grounds behind the
march toward war that have been detailed on this website, including in my piece, A high-risk game of nuclear chicken, which appeared in Asia Times Online on January 31.
In 1996, Richard Perle and Douglas Feith, two neo-conservatives later to play an important role in formulation of Bush administration's Pentagon policy in the Middle East, authored a paper for then newly elected Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. That advisory paper, "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm", called on Netanyahu to make a "clean break from the peace process". Perle and Feith also called on Netanyahu to strengthen Israel's defenses against Syria and Iraq, and to go after Iran as the prop of Syria.
More than a year before President George W Bush declared his "shock and awe" operation against Iraq, he made his now-infamous January 2002 State of the Union address to Congress in which he labeled Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, as a member of the "axis of evil" trio. This was well before anyone in Tehran was even considering establishing an oil bourse to trade oil in various currencies.
The argument by those who believe the Tehran oil bourse would be the casus belli, the trigger pushing Washington down the road to potential thermonuclear annihilation of Iran, seems to rest on the claim that by openly trading oil to other nations or buyers in euros, Tehran would set into motion a chain of events in which nation after nation, buyer after buyer, would line up to buy oil no longer in US dollars but in euros. That, in turn, goes the argument, would lead to a panic selling of dollars on world foreign-exchange markets and a collapse of the role of the dollar as reserve currency, one of the "pillars of Empire". Basta! There goes the American Century down the tubes with the onset of the Tehran oil bourse.
Some background considerations
That argument fails to convince for a number of reasons. First, in the case of at least one of the oil-bourse theorists, the argument is based on a misunderstanding of the process I described in my book, A Century of War, regarding the creation in 1974 of "petrodollar recycling", a process with which then-US secretary of state Henry Kissinger was deeply involved, in the wake of the 400% oil-price hike orchestrated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The US dollar then did not become a "petrodollar", although Kissinger spoke about the process of "recycling petrodollars". What he was referring to was the initiation of a new phase of US global hegemony in which the petrodollar export earnings of OPEC oil lands would be recycled into the hands of the major New York and London banks and re-lent in the form of US dollar loans to oil-deficit countries such as Brazil and Argentina, creating what soon came to be known as the Latin American debt crisis.
The dollar at that time had been a fiat currency since August 1971 when president Richard Nixon first abrogated the Bretton Woods Treaty and refused to redeem US dollars held by foreign central banks for gold bullion. The dollar floated against other major currencies, falling more or less until it was revived by the 1973-74 oil-price shock.
What the oil shock achieved for the sagging dollar was a sudden injection of global demand from nations confronted with 400% higher oil-import bills. At that time, by postwar convention and convenience, as the dollar was the only reserve currency held around the world other than gold, oil was priced by all OPEC members in dollars as a practical exigency.
With the 400% price rise, nations such as France, Germany and Japan suddenly found reason to try to buy their oil directly in their own currencies - French francs, Deutschmarks or Japanese yen - to lessen the pressure on their rapidly declining reserves of trade dollars. The US Treasury and the Pentagon made certain that did not happen, partly with some secret diplomacy by Kissinger, bullying threats, and a whopping-big US military agreement with the key OPEC producer, Saudi Arabia. At that time it helped that the shah of Iran was seen in Washington to be a vassal of Kissinger.
The point was not that the US dollar became a "petro" currency. The point was that the reserve status of the dollar, now a paper currency, was bolstered by the 400% increase in world demand for dollars to buy oil. But that was only a part of the dollar story. In 1979, after the accession to power of the ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Iran, oil prices shot through the roof for the second time in six years. Yet, paradoxically, later that year the dollar began a precipitous free-fall, not a rise. It was no "petrodollar".
Foreign dollar-holders began dumping their dollars as a protest against the foreign policies of the administration of US president Jimmy Carter. It was to deal with that dollar crisis that Carter was forced to bring in Paul Volcker to head the Federal Reserve in 1979. In October 1979 Volcker gave the dollar another turbocharge by allowing interest rates in the US to rise some 300% in weeks, to well over 20%. That in turn forced global interest rates through the roof, triggered a global recession, mass unemployment and misery. It also "saved" the dollar as sole reserve currency. The dollar was not a "petrodollar". It was the currency of issue of the greatest superpower, a superpower determined to do what it needed to keep it that way.
The F-16 dollar backing
Since 1979 the US power establishment, from Wall Street to Washington, has maintained the status of the dollar as unchallenged global reserve currency. That role, however, is not a purely economic one. Reserve-currency status is an adjunct of global power, of the US determination to dominate other nations and the global economic process. The United States didn't get reserve-currency status by a democratic vote of world central banks, nor did the British Empire in the 19th century. They fought wars for it.
For that reason, the status of the dollar as reserve currency depends on the status of the United States as the world's unchallenged military superpower. In a sense, since August 1971 the dollar is no longer backed by gold. Instead, it is backed by F-16s and Abrams battle tanks, operating in some 130 US bases around the world, defending liberty and the dollar.
A euro challenge?
For the euro to begin to challenge the reserve role of the US dollar, a virtual revolution in policy would have to take place in Euroland. First the European Central Bank (ECB), the institutionalized, undemocratic institution created by the Maastricht Treaty to maintain the power of creditor banks in collecting their debts, would have to surrender power to elected legislators. It would then have to turn on the printing presses and print euros like there was no tomorrow. That is because the size of the publicly traded Euroland government-bond market is still tiny in comparison with the huge US Treasury market.
As Michael Hudson explains in his brilliant and too-little-studied work Super Imperialism, the perverse genius of the US global dollar hegemony was the realization, in the months after August 1971, that US power under a fiat dollar system was directly tied to the creation of dollar debt. The US debt and the trade deficit were not the "problem", they realized. They were the "solution".
The US could print endless quantities of dollars to pay for foreign imports of Toyotas, Hondas, BMWs or other goods in a system in which the trading partners of the United States, holding paper dollars for their exports, feared a dollar collapse enough to continue to support the dollar by buying US Treasury bonds and bills. In fact in the 30 years since abandoning gold exchange for paper dollars, the US dollars in reserve have risen by a whopping 2,500%, and the amount grows at double-digit rates today.
This system continued into the 1980s and 1990s unchallenged. US policy was one of crisis management coupled with skillful and coordinated projection of US military power. Japan in the 1980s, fearful of antagonizing its US nuclear-umbrella provider, bought endless volumes of US Treasury debt even though it lost a king's ransom in the process. It was a political, not an investment, decision.
The only potential challenge to the reserve role of the dollar came in the late 1990s with the European Union decision to create a single currency, the euro, to be administered by single central bank, the ECB. Europe appeared to be emerging as a unified, independent policy voice of what French President Jacques Chirac then called a multipolar world. Those multipolar illusions vanished with the unpublicized decision of the ECB and national central banks not to pool their gold reserves as backing for the new euro. That decision not to use gold as backing came amid a heated controversy over Nazi gold and alleged wartime abuses by Germany, Switzerland, France and other European countries.
Since the shocks of September 11, 2001, and the ensuing declaration of a US "global war on terror", including a unilateral decision to ignore the United Nations and the community of nations and go to war against a defenseless Iraq, few countries have even dared to challenge dollar hegemony. The combined defense spending of all nations of the EU today pales by comparison with the total of current US budgeted and unbudgeted military spending. US defense outlays will reach an official, staggering level of US$663 billion in the 2007 fiscal year. The combined annual EU spending amounts to a mere $75 billion, and is tending to decline, in part because of ECB Maastricht deficit pressures on its governments.
So today, at least for the present, there are no signs of Japanese, EU or other dollar holders engaging in dollar-asset liquidation. Even China, unhappy as it is with Washington's bully politics, seems reluctant to rouse the American dragon to fury.
The origins of the oil bourse
The idea of creating a new trading platform in Iran to trade oil and to create a new crude-oil benchmark apparently originated with the former director of the London International Petroleum Exchange, Chris Cook. In a January 21 article in Asia Times Online (What the Iran 'nuclear issue' is really about), Cook explained the background. Describing a letter he had written in 2001 to the governor of the Iranian Central Bank, Dr Mohsen Nourbakhsh, Cook explained what he advised then:
In this letter I pointed out that the structure of global oil markets massively favors intermediary traders and particularly investment banks, and that both consumers and producers such as Iran are adversely affected by this. I recommended that Iran consider as a matter of urgency the creation of a Middle Eastern energy exchange, and particularly a new Persian Gulf benchmark oil price.
It is therefore with wry amusement that I have seen a myth being widely propagated on the Internet that the genesis of this "Iran bourse" project is a wish to subvert the US dollar by denominating oil pricing in euros.
As anyone familiar with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will know, the denomination of oil sales in currencies other than the dollar is not a new subject, and as anyone familiar with economics will tell you, the denomination of oil sales is merely a transactional issue: what matters is in what assets (or, in the case of the United States, liabilities ) these proceeds are then invested.
A full challenge to the domination of the US dollar as the world central-bank reserve currency entails a de facto declaration of war on the "full-spectrum dominance" of the United States today. The mighty members of the European Central Bank Council well know this. The heads of state of every EU country know this. The Chinese leadership as well as the Japanese and Indians know this. So does Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Until some combination of those Eurasian powers congeal in a cohesive challenge to the unbridled domination of the United States as sole superpower, there will be no euro or yen or even Chinese yuan challenging the role of the dollar. The issue is of enormous importance, as it is vital to understand the true dynamics bringing the world to the brink of possible nuclear catastrophe today.
As a small ending note, a good friend in Oslo recently forwarded me an article from the Norwegian press. At the end of December, Sven Arild Andersen, director of the Oslo bourse, announced he was fed up with depending on the London oil bourse trading oil in dollars. Norway, a major oil producer, selling most of its oil into euro countries in the EU, he said, should set up its own oil bourse and trade its oil in euros. Will Norway - a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - become the next target for the wrath of the Pentagon?
F William Engdahl is author of A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order (Pluto Press). He can be reached through his website, www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HC10Ak01.html
Are you sure you want to short the EURO Glance?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_warfare
Battle Plans for Iran
by Mike Whitney
Tell A Friend
In less than 24 hours the Bush administration has won impressive victories on both domestic and foreign policy fronts. At home, the far-right Federalist Society alum, Sam Alito, has overcome the feeble resistance from Democratic senators; ensuring his confirmation to the Supreme Court sometime late on Tuesday. Equally astonishing, the administration has coerced both Russia and China into bringing Iran before the United Nations Security Council although (as Mohamed ElBaradei says) “There’s no evidence of a nuclear weapons program.” The surprising capitulation of Russia and China has forced Iran to abandon its efforts for further negotiations; cutting off dialogue that might diffuse the volatile situation.
“We consider any referral or report of Iran to the Security Council as the end of diplomacy,” Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told state television.
The administration’s success with Iran ends the diplomatic charade and paves the way for war. Now, UN Ambassador John Bolton can make his appearance before the Security Council with allegations of “noncompliance” that will rattle through the corporate media and prepare the world for unilateral military action.
The administration has no expectation of securing the votes needed for sanctions or punitive action. Its all for show. The trip to the Security Council is simply a ploy to provide the cover of international legitimacy to another act of unprovoked aggression. The case has gone as far as it will go excluding the requisite “touched up” satellite photos and spurious allegations of unreliable dissidents.
We should now be focused on how Washington intends to carry out its war plans, since war is inevitable.
Those who doubt that the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld team will attack Iran, while so conspicuously overextended in Iraq, are ignoring the subtleties of the administration’s Middle East strategy.
Bush has no intention of occupying Iran. Rather, the goal is to destroy major weapons-sites, destabilize the regime, and occupy a sliver of land on the Iraqi border that contains 90% of Iran’s oil wealth. Ultimately, Washington will aim to replace the Mullahs with American-friendly clients who can police their own people and fabricate the appearance of representative government. But, that will have to wait. For now, the administration must prevent the incipient Iran bourse (oil-exchange) from opening in March and precipitating a global sell-off of the debt-ridden dollar. There have many fine articles written about the proposed “euro-based” bourse and the devastating effects it will have on the greenback. The best of these are “Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar” by William R. Clark, and “The Proposed Oil Bourse” by Krassimir Petrov, Ph.D.
The bottom line on the bourse is this; the dollar is underwritten by a national debt that now exceeds $8 trillion dollars and trade deficits that surpass $600 billion per year. That means that the greenback is the greatest swindle in the history of mankind. It’s utterly worthless. The only thing that keeps the dollar afloat is that oil is traded exclusively in greenbacks rather than some other currency. If Iran is able to smash that monopoly by trading in petro-euros then the world’s central banks will dump the greenback overnight, sending markets crashing and the US economy into a downward spiral.
The Bush administration has no intention of allowing that to take place. In fact, as the tax-cuts and the budget deficits indicate, the Bush cabal fully intends to perpetuate the system that trades worthless dollars for valuable commodities, labor, and resources. As long as the oil market is married to the dollar, this system of global indentured servitude will continue.
Battle Plans
The Bush administration’s attention has shifted to a small province in southwestern Iran that is unknown to most Americans. Never the less, Khuzestan will become the next front in the war on terror and the lynchpin for prevailing in the global resource war. If the Bush administration can sweep into the region (under the pretext disarming Iran’s nuclear programs) and put Iran’s prodigious oil wealth under US control, the dream of monopolizing Middle East oil will have been achieved.
Not surprisingly, this was Saddam Hussein’s strategy in 1980 when he initiated hostilities against Iran in a war that would last for eight years. Saddam was an American client at the time, so it is likely that he got the green light for the invasion from the Reagan White House. Many of Reagan’s high-ranking officials currently serve in the Bush administration; notably Rumsfeld and Cheney.
Khuzestan represents 90% of Iran’s oil production. The control over these massive fields will force the oil-dependent nations of China, Japan and India to continue to stockpile greenbacks despite the currency’s dubious value. The annexing of Khuzestan will prevent Iran’s bourse from opening, thereby guaranteeing that the dollar will maintain its dominant position as the world’s reserve currency. As long as the dollar reigns supreme and western elites have their hands on the Middle East oil-spigot, the current system of exploitation through debt will continue into perpetuity. The administration can confidently prolong its colossal deficits without fear of a plummeting dollar. In fact, the American war-machine and all its various appendages, from Guantanamo to Abrams Tanks, are paid for by the myriad nations who willingly hold reserves of American currency.
This extortion-scheme is typically referred to as the global economic system. In reality, it has nothing to do with either free markets or capitalism. That is just philosophical mumbo-jumbo. It is the dollar-system; predicated entirely on the ongoing monopoly of the oil trade in dollars.
Invading Khuzestan
In a recent article by Zolton Grossman, “Khuzestan; the First Front in the War on Iran?”, Grossman cites the Beirut Daily Star which predicts that the “"first step taken by an invading force would be to occupy Iran's oil-rich Khuzestan Province, securing the sensitive Straits of Hormuz and cutting off the Iranian military's oil supply, forcing it to depend on its limited stocks."
This strategy has been called the “Khuzestan Gambit”, and we can expect that some variant of this plan will be executed following the aerial bombardment of Iranian military installations and weapons sites. If Iran retaliates, then there is every reason to believe that either the United States or Israel will respond with low-yield, bunker-busting nuclear weapons. In fact, the Pentagon may want to demonstrate its eagerness to use nuclear weapons do deter future adversaries and to maintain current levels of troop deployments without a draft.
Tonkin Bay Redux
On January 28, 2006, Iranian officials announced that they would “hand over evidence that proved British involvement in bombings in the southern city of Ahvaz earlier in the week” that killed eight civilians and wounded 46 others. This was just one of the many bombings, incitements, and demonstrations that have taken place in Khuzestan in the last year that suggest foreign intervention. The action is strikingly similar to the 2 British commandoes who were apprehended in Basra a few months ago dressed as Arabs with a truckload of explosives during the week of religious festival.
Coincidence?
Probably not.
Step by step, Iran is being set up for war. What difference does the provocation make? The determination to consolidate the oil reserves in the Caspian Basin was made more than a decade ago and is clearly articulated in the policy papers produced by the Project for the New American Century (PNAC) The Bush administration is one small province away from realizing the its dream of controlling the world’s most valued resource. They won’t let that opportunity pass them by.
We're in for another war.
Mike is a freelance writer living in Washington state.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_mike_whi_060131_battle_plans_for_ira.htm
Battle Plans for Iran
by Mike Whitney
In less than 24 hours the Bush administration has won impressive victories on both domestic and foreign policy fronts. At home, the far-right Federalist Society alum, Sam Alito, has overcome the feeble resistance from Democratic senators; ensuring his confirmation to the Supreme Court sometime late on Tuesday. Equally astonishing, the administration has coerced both Russia and China into bringing Iran before the United Nations Security Council although (as Mohamed ElBaradei says) “There’s no evidence of a nuclear weapons program.” The surprising capitulation of Russia and China has forced Iran to abandon its efforts for further negotiations; cutting off dialogue that might diffuse the volatile situation.
“We consider any referral or report of Iran to the Security Council as the end of diplomacy,” Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told state television.
The administration’s success with Iran ends the diplomatic charade and paves the way for war. Now, UN Ambassador John Bolton can make his appearance before the Security Council with allegations of “noncompliance” that will rattle through the corporate media and prepare the world for unilateral military action.
The administration has no expectation of securing the votes needed for sanctions or punitive action. Its all for show. The trip to the Security Council is simply a ploy to provide the cover of international legitimacy to another act of unprovoked aggression. The case has gone as far as it will go excluding the requisite “touched up” satellite photos and spurious allegations of unreliable dissidents.
We should now be focused on how Washington intends to carry out its war plans, since war is inevitable.
Those who doubt that the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld team will attack Iran, while so conspicuously overextended in Iraq, are ignoring the subtleties of the administration’s Middle East strategy.
Bush has no intention of occupying Iran. Rather, the goal is to destroy major weapons-sites, destabilize the regime, and occupy a sliver of land on the Iraqi border that contains 90% of Iran’s oil wealth. Ultimately, Washington will aim to replace the Mullahs with American-friendly clients who can police their own people and fabricate the appearance of representative government. But, that will have to wait. For now, the administration must prevent the incipient Iran bourse (oil-exchange) from opening in March and precipitating a global sell-off of the debt-ridden dollar. There have many fine articles written about the proposed “euro-based” bourse and the devastating effects it will have on the greenback. The best of these are “Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar” by William R. Clark, and “The Proposed Oil Bourse” by Krassimir Petrov, Ph.D.
The bottom line on the bourse is this; the dollar is underwritten by a national debt that now exceeds $8 trillion dollars and trade deficits that surpass $600 billion per year. That means that the greenback is the greatest swindle in the history of mankind. It’s utterly worthless. The only thing that keeps the dollar afloat is that oil is traded exclusively in greenbacks rather than some other currency. If Iran is able to smash that monopoly by trading in petro-euros then the world’s central banks will dump the greenback overnight, sending markets crashing and the US economy into a downward spiral.
The Bush administration has no intention of allowing that to take place. In fact, as the tax-cuts and the budget deficits indicate, the Bush cabal fully intends to perpetuate the system that trades worthless dollars for valuable commodities, labor, and resources. As long as the oil market is married to the dollar, this system of global indentured servitude will continue.
Battle Plans
The Bush administration’s attention has shifted to a small province in southwestern Iran that is unknown to most Americans. Never the less, Khuzestan will become the next front in the war on terror and the lynchpin for prevailing in the global resource war. If the Bush administration can sweep into the region (under the pretext disarming Iran’s nuclear programs) and put Iran’s prodigious oil wealth under US control, the dream of monopolizing Middle East oil will have been achieved.
Not surprisingly, this was Saddam Hussein’s strategy in 1980 when he initiated hostilities against Iran in a war that would last for eight years. Saddam was an American client at the time, so it is likely that he got the green light for the invasion from the Reagan White House. Many of Reagan’s high-ranking officials currently serve in the Bush administration; notably Rumsfeld and Cheney.
Khuzestan represents 90% of Iran’s oil production. The control over these massive fields will force the oil-dependent nations of China, Japan and India to continue to stockpile greenbacks despite the currency’s dubious value. The annexing of Khuzestan will prevent Iran’s bourse from opening, thereby guaranteeing that the dollar will maintain its dominant position as the world’s reserve currency. As long as the dollar reigns supreme and western elites have their hands on the Middle East oil-spigot, the current system of exploitation through debt will continue into perpetuity. The administration can confidently prolong its colossal deficits without fear of a plummeting dollar. In fact, the American war-machine and all its various appendages, from Guantanamo to Abrams Tanks, are paid for by the myriad nations who willingly hold reserves of American currency.
This extortion-scheme is typically referred to as the global economic system. In reality, it has nothing to do with either free markets or capitalism. That is just philosophical mumbo-jumbo. It is the dollar-system; predicated entirely on the ongoing monopoly of the oil trade in dollars.
Invading Khuzestan
In a recent article by Zolton Grossman, “Khuzestan; the First Front in the War on Iran?”, Grossman cites the Beirut Daily Star which predicts that the “"first step taken by an invading force would be to occupy Iran's oil-rich Khuzestan Province, securing the sensitive Straits of Hormuz and cutting off the Iranian military's oil supply, forcing it to depend on its limited stocks."
This strategy has been called the “Khuzestan Gambit”, and we can expect that some variant of this plan will be executed following the aerial bombardment of Iranian military installations and weapons sites. If Iran retaliates, then there is every reason to believe that either the United States or Israel will respond with low-yield, bunker-busting nuclear weapons. In fact, the Pentagon may want to demonstrate its eagerness to use nuclear weapons do deter future adversaries and to maintain current levels of troop deployments without a draft.
Tonkin Bay Redux
On January 28, 2006, Iranian officials announced that they would “hand over evidence that proved British involvement in bombings in the southern city of Ahvaz earlier in the week” that killed eight civilians and wounded 46 others. This was just one of the many bombings, incitements, and demonstrations that have taken place in Khuzestan in the last year that suggest foreign intervention. The action is strikingly similar to the 2 British commandoes who were apprehended in Basra a few months ago dressed as Arabs with a truckload of explosives during the week of religious festival.
Coincidence?
Probably not.
Step by step, Iran is being set up for war. What difference does the provocation make? The determination to consolidate the oil reserves in the Caspian Basin was made more than a decade ago and is clearly articulated in the policy papers produced by the Project for the New American Century (PNAC) The Bush administration is one small province away from realizing the its dream of controlling the world’s most valued resource. They won’t let that opportunity pass them by.
We're in for another war.
Mike is a freelance writer living in Washington state.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_mike_whi_060131_battle_plans_for_ira.htm
Petroeuro
And people are wondering why the US wants to attack Iran!
Russia and China will never let them!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroeuro
A petroeuro is a petroleum trade valued in the euro as opposed to the US dollar (a petrodollar). Trading of any natural resource, including petroleum, is controlled through trading partnerships involving both exporters and importers of the resource, in a defined marketplace, and through a trade agreement. The major countries holding petroleum reserves since the decline of US production are dominated by OPEC, and hence, OPEC may choose dollars, euros, yen, or any currency providing perceived advantage, politically or economically. Since the OPEC's agreements of 1971 and 1973 oil is exclusively sold in US dollars. This created a permanent demand for dollars on the international exchange markets.[4] As of 2005, OPEC continues to trade in petrodollars, but some OPEC members (such as Iran and Venezuela) have been pushing for a switch to the euro.
Since the beginning of 2003, Iran has required euros in payment of exports toward Asia and Europe, though prices are still expressed in US dollars [1]. Iran is planning to open an International Oil Bourse (IOB, exchange), on the free trade zone on the island of Kish [2], for the express purpose of trading oil priced in other currencies, including euros. This will establish a euro based pricing mechanism, or "oil marker" as it is called by traders. The three current oil markers are US dollar denominated, which include the West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), North Sea Brent Crude, and the UAE Dubai Crude.
The opening of the IOB had been planned for March 20, 2006, the Iranian New Year 1385[1], but has been delayed. It was expected to open sometime in the summer of 2006.[3]
The Iranian line in the sand
Iranian plans to soon trade oil for Euros will smoke out the true intentions of the US
by Dan Crawford
We are seven months away from a history-making event.
On March 20th, 2006, Iran is planning to open an International Oil Bourse (market) for the express purpose of trading oil priced exclusively in Euros. The world currently does all oil trades in US dollars, commonly referred to as the petro-dollar. Introducing an alternative currency that directly competes against the US dollar will facilitate many global economic changes.
The US, of course, stands to be the most affected. Up until now, the Americans have been able to maintain a high demand for their currency due to its role in purchasing the world's primary energy resource. This demand has allowed the US to mushroom its debt to record levels supported by the selling of US treasury bills to foreign countries. How will the US continue to operate if countries stop floating their debt and turn instead towards the Euro?
Evidence of the US acting out of concern over their dollar hegemony can be seen in the war with Iraq. In September 2000 Iraq began selling all oil exports in euros. The euro then increased in value which added much profitability to European operations. The US invaded and shortly thereafter (four months to be exact) reverted all Iraqi oil trades back to the US dollar as well as nullifying previous foreign contracts. It has been surmised that the US invaded Iraq not just to control oil reserves but also to protect its all-important petro-dollar.
Fast-forward to the present day situation with Iran, a country being victimized through a US smear campaign. President Bush has continuously tried to promote Iran as an “axis of evil” country through accusations that Iran secretly' tried to develop nuclear weapons and harbors terrorists. To date, none of these claims have ever been substantiated.
Iran's stance on their nuclear plans is well justified. Iran has been a member of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since 2003. They have followed all guidelines from the IAEA since then and have given full transparency to their nuclear program. Iran even voluntarily ceased their uranium enrichment program as an act of confidence building.
A stark contrast is the country of Pakistan, which is not a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. They have recently tested a cruise missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads for distances of up to 500 kms. Pakistan also has a long history of selling nuclear weapons technology to foreign countries. Yet, Iran is the one being made out as the bad guy.
Add to the mix a number of high profile leaks originating from the Pentagon indicating that plans have been made to attack Iran in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil, regardless of involvement or not.
The world's second largest oil consumer, China, is also one of Iran's major foreign investors, having signed billions of dollars worth of trade agreements in the last year alone. Both Russia and India have also made substantial investments in Iran. An attack on Iran will not be welcomed by those countries who have invested their energy futures in Iranian oil and gas reserves.
World headlines being played out in the media are beginning to relate back to one issue—the petro-dollar. As we get closer to March 20th, 2006, we will find out just how threatened the US feels about having another petro-currency in the world. If the Iranian Oil Bourse opens, it is conceivable that the US will find out exactly what their money is made of—which is paper and little else.
Glance, look at the gems I found!
We can probably use all this in our position trades.
Put your catlike abilities to good use.
Here we goooo!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread
The TED spread is the difference between the interest rate for U.S. Treasuries and Eurodollars as represented by the London Inter Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR). The TED spread is a measure of liquidity and shows the flow of dollars between the U.S. and Europe.
The value of the TED spread fluctuates over time but is often between 10 and 50 basis points (0.1% and 0.5%). A rising TED spread often fortells of a downturn in the U.S. stock market as liquidity is withdrawn.
===========================================================
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LIBOR
BBA LIBOR is the most widely used benchmark or reference rate for short term interest rates world-wide.
LIBOR is published by the British Bankers Association (BBA) shortly after 11:00 each day, London time, and is a filtered average of inter-bank deposit rates offered by designated contributor banks, for maturities ranging from overnight to one year. The shorter rates, i.e. up to 6 months, are usually quite reliable and tend to precisely reflect market conditions at measurement time. The actual rate at which banks will lend to one another will, however, continue to vary throughout the day.
Apart from the US dollar and, of course Pound Sterling, currencies for which LIBOR is a significant reference rate currently include the Swiss Franc, the Yen, the Canadian dollar and the Danish Krone.
In the 1990s, Yen LIBOR rates were altered by credit problems affecting some, but not all, of the contributor banks.
For a precise definition of BBA LIBOR, see the BBA website.
http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=141
Daily Futures Price Listing
http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/ohlc-07.php
Mister Lava,
Do you look at futures charts and data like the above link to determine your long term swing trades?
Your mind is truly warped. Congratulations and I am happy to know you. ... i think ....
When the EURJPY goes down then the EURUSD gioes as you witnessed today. So it does have quite an effect on the pair.
The EURJPY dropped 150 pips since last night. The data today from the US was so so and did not warrant the EURUSD dropping any more today.
Yen Worries Luxury Companies Even More Than Weak Dollar
International Herald Tribune, February 5, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MILAN -- The dollar's decline against the euro over the past year has led European luxury goods companies to reduce costs and squeeze out savings. But in recent weeks, the real worry for many chief executives has become the Japanese yen.
The yen is now trading near all-time lows — ¥157 to the euro, or $1.28— and many foreign exchange experts do not expect it to strengthen significantly this year.
"As long as the dollar stays at $1.30 to the euro, we can deal with that," said Ermenegildo Zegna, the co-chief executive of the high-end Italian menswear company that bears his name. "The yen has already passed our benchmark of ¥150 to the euro and, at the current level, it's becoming a headache and a problem."
Most of the high-end luxury companies in Europe, including Prada, Gucci, Zegna and LVMH (Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton), do the bulk of their production on the Continent, incurring costs in euros. Yet many have a high percentage of their sales in countries that use the dollar, the yen or a currency linked to one of the two.
So when sales income from overseas is converted and matched to expenses, revenues shrink, although luxury companies do hedge by investing in financial instruments to protect themselves against currency fluctuations.
Last week, Bulgari, an Italian maker of high-end jewelry, reported a 1 percent drop in Japanese sales in the fourth quarter when compared with the same period in 2005. When figures are converted to euros, and the weakened yen is taken into account, the decline widens to 8.3 percent.
Francesco Trapani, the chief executive of Bulgari, echoed Zegna's concern about the Japanese currency.
"With the yen at the current level we can more or less defend ourselves, though if it continues to fall, we'll have to study the situation and see what the competition does and figure what consumers are doing," Trapani said. "From there, we'll have to see what to do."
The Japanese currency dropped 13 percent against the euro last year. In contrast, the dollar lost 12 percent against the euro last year to close at $1.32 per euro, although that was slightly better than the record low of $1.36 in December 2004.
In the past month, the dollar has clawed its way back to about $1.30 per euro, an exchange rate that many analysts expect to be the average for the rest of 2007.
Many luxury goods companies are cutting costs to deal with the strong euro, but Zegna's company is doing the opposite. It intends to spend twice as much on marketing and expansion as it did in 2006 to open three U.S. stores, including a flagship store on Fifth Avenue in New York, and three in Japan, including a flagship store in Tokyo.
Bulgari also is opening two large stores in Tokyo this year.
"Our approach is to attack and become more aggressive," Zegna said. "You can't have woken up in January 2007 and said, 'I want to do something about the weak dollar and yen.' You have to have started a long time ago. You need careful planning; you can't just push a button and do it."
The company is aiming for a 10 percent increase in sales this year, the same percentage increase as in 2006 — Zegna said they would have expected better numbers with a stronger yen. About 60 percent of its €782 million revenue last year came from the United States, Japan and countries with currencies linked to the dollar or the yen.
In addition to the weak currencies' effects on sales in the United States and Japan, a strong euro also means fewer travelers to Europe and, according to Zegna and Trapani, fewer sales to tourists visiting Milan, Paris and Madrid. "We sell much, much less to the Japanese when they are outside of Japan because, with the falling yen, they don't have the same purchasing power," Trapani said.
Predicting currency movements is an inexact science at best and experts who make a living at it spend their time looking at the effects that politics, macroeconomics, interest rates and general consumer sentiment have on exchange rates.
"The political pressure from Europe will likely put a lid on the yen-per-euro rate at 160 this year," said Brian Dolan, research director for the New York- based Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital. "The euro against the dollar is more of a sideways outlook because interest rates are higher in the U.S., but seem likely to rise faster in Europe.
"We aren't expecting much of a deviation from the range of $1.28 to $1.33 per euro. As we approach $1.35, euro zone officials aren't pleased and talk about intervening," he said.
The commentaries are opposite of what happens. I never listen to that shit. And also indicators mean NOTHING. Price action is what it is about. If it breaks a support or supply line then you know where it will go.
GL
Probably but not quite yet!
I am glad you are trading the eur short. Now I know it will go up. LOL! (talking 50 pips here). The things is ranging from 1.2880 - 1.3150. Grab by the tail or the head and we should be ok. Sunday night gambling got me for the time being.
LOL! I am actually gonna use that one when my trades go bad LOL!
I am at work but peeking from time to time ... It is a mixed bag of data! The good offsets the bad so no real reson for the euro to really tank .. YET!
http://www.ism.ws/about/mediaroom/newsreleasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=15898&navItemNumber=12943
Employment went down! I tell ya ISM services is the best predictor of NFP!
Looks like it is channeling down. May not even reach 1.3010.
It all depends on the news tonight and the ISM services tomorrow but the EURO is a good short at 1.3010 after that.
Long EUR/USD and long GBP/USD to start the week. Looking for 30 pips.
This how it works:
If gold goes up that means inflation is goin up.
If inflation goes up you need to raise interest rates to counter thus the German Bund goes up.
If the German Bund goes up then more people are gonna need euros to buy the bund.
If The EUR/USD goes up then the european exporters are screwed.
The problem is that the M3 money supply exploded and they HAVE TO RAISE interest rates to control it. But guess what? With all that cheap money out there the European stock market exploded up.
So if Trichet raised interest rates the european stock market will crash hard.
Trichet should have never let the money supply get out of hand like that!
Eurodollars are not what you think Glace.
They are U.S.-dollar denominated deposits at foreign banks or foreign branches of American banks. By locating outside of the United States, eurodollars escape regulation by the Federal Reserve Board.
Originally, dollar-denominated deposits not subject to U.S. banking regulations were held almost exclusively in Europe; hence the name eurodollars. These deposits are still mostly held in Europe, but they're also held in such countries as the Bahamas, Canada, the Cayman Islands, Hong Kong, Japan, the Netherlands Antilles, Panama, and Singapore. Regardless of where they are held, such deposits are referred to as eurodollars.
Since the eurodollar market is relatively free of regulation, banks in the eurodollar market can operate on narrower margins than banks in the United States. Thus, the eurodollar market has expanded largely as a means of avoiding the regulatory costs involved in dollar-denominated financial intermediation.
The Chart you need to look at is the Deutsche Mark (IMM): (High: Dec//Low: Jun or Aug) Mark has exhibited pattern similar to that of franc, except strong into year end more regularly. Market now tied directly to other Euro currencies.
http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/dm.html
Like clockwork! If they cannot make money goin up they will take it down! Out at 1.2985!
It will go down dude. 40 PIPS spike on NFP? no way man! The big dogs gotta make their money. They will take it down .. I can feel it. Off to work .. will check back later.
What? the number leaked or I cannot tell time? LOL! prior 167K revised to 206K .. like making a hole in water.
I supposed this is the page that will show all the revisions of the payroll data.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm
Shorting the EUR/USD at 1.3024 with half a lot for the hell of it! Looking for an 80 pip drop.
I am with you Lava.
Be very very CAREFUL tomorrow!!!
Government revisions to payrolls are likely to show job growth has been much stronger than first thought.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/01/news/economy/jobs_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2007020115
But the numbers will also include the Labor Department's so-called benchmark revisions to job numbers for April 2005 through March 2006. While it's gotten very little attention, the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimated last October that the revisions will add about 810,000 jobs to its count of U.S. payrolls for that 12-month period.
In addition, the BLS will make changes to its estimates for April 2006 through December 2006, and some economists say several hundred thousand additional jobs may be counted for that period, meaning the overall job gain could top 1 million. Wachovia senior economist Mark Vitner estimates a total net gain of 1.2 million from all the revisions.
Changes of that magnitude would obviously dwarf the January numbers, which will nevertheless get most of the attention on Wall Street.
The benchmark revision is the biggest going back to the 1970s, and some economists say it shows not only that the economy is doing much better than previously believed, but that the way the Labor Department calculates those on the job needs significant revisions.
"The BLS says that the payroll estimate has a margin of error of 150,000 jobs, while the household survey is plus or minus 300,000 jobs," he said. "So when you see a gain of 150,000 in the payroll number, it could be zero, or 300,000. It's tough to draw any conclusions about the state of the economy from that." MY GAWD!
1 minute delayed stream of an automated trading platform.
http://wizfiz.camstreams.com/
Right click on the image and zoom to full screen!
Incredibly cool!
Glance we gotta get an automated system going soon dude!
Another gem! 300 pip daily range wow!
BoJ have changed their intervention policy just recently. In 1995, when USD/JPY hit the historical bottom at around 79.80 the interventions below 100 (on the way down and then on the way up) were quite frequent. Even concerted ones (joint), when a number of CBs got involved. BoJ used to work as any other speculator and so far they seem to come up with some profits every time they get involved. The contracts that BoJ bought through interventions at below 100 in 1995 they sold back in 1997 starting from around 127.00. Then a new wave of interventions (this time against the USD and in order to support the yen) began in 1998 from 134 and (being relatively unsuccessful in the beginning) continued all the way to the very top at 145. The profits made on those interventions were eventually pocketed at 110-120 trading zone by the end of the same year. That time the "intervention" daily ranges usually were in excess of 250-300 pips. Also that time BoJ didn't care much about damaging the liquidity and sometimes made repetitive attempts to intervene several times a day. The biggest intervention related one day trading range was posted on USD/JPY chart at 10.07.98 reaching over 1100 pips. It was also the time when LTCM hedge fund got burned. Obviously that huge move should partially be attributed to them liquidating USD/JPY longs in response to numerous margin calls they got that day.
Man this thread kicks major azz.
Glad I don't have a billion to unload LOL!!!
Glance forget about your billions.
Take a million and make 10% to have your cool 100 grand to spend on pruning your cat fur.
You can even get another cat (or DOG for that matter) to lick you all over so you can be nice and clean.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zeroz
Out of curiosity, what was the effect of the 1 billion dollar order and on which currency was it?
I remember that our 1.6 bio USD/JPY market order Tokyo session "sell" once was executed in average about 30 pips below the price and the overall downside impact was about 100-110 pips. Often someone else's stops also get triggered by such a trade. I guess that was the case then. It took a couple of hours however for the price to get back where it started from.
Also as far as I remember, BoJ used to spend on a single intervention attempt $4-7 bio, each time causing market volatility to be anywhere between 150 and 350 pips. The impact hugely depends on time and trading levels.
Excellent story. Glance ... remember to hit the right button! LOL!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=4155
Quote:
Originally Posted by drjoe4x
WOW AROON!! 10K to 98K in 7 months is spectacular...might I ask, if you would enlighten us a little bit as to your original trading methods followed by your "money management" problems that must have led to the "denial" phase...please share with us what you have learned in trading successfully and then not so successfully...you can probably help a lot of people avoid the same mistakes and maybe some of us can help get you back on the right track if you aren't already there...still, very impressed with the 10K to 98K in 7 months...would love to here from you on your success and "failure" history.
thx,
drjoe
OK, I am somewhat reluctant, but here it goes.....
There is nothing sensational or mysterious about it.
Only just do not read the following as knowledgeable advice. Because it is not.
When I started with € 10,000 back in May, I dutifully checked sites like www.actionforex.com and www.fxstreet.com on a daily basis, to read the opinions and advices of experts.
I combined these with some technicals (fibo, ma, rsi) and fundamentals, and placed my orders. So, no objective system that yields trading signals, just my own subjective interpretation (intuition, if you like) of a combination of factors.
I traded with only one lot per trade, opened only two or three trades, and went for a profit of 30 to 50 pips per trade. I had fixed stop losses and profit limits. Simple, I just cannot explain it with more details, it was just like that.
I made 25% the first month, I made 25% the second month. End of June 2005 my balance was € 15.683.
A little greed crept in......
As my balance grew, I decided to trade more lots than one per trade, 2 or sometimes 3. My usuable margin balance allowed me to. And wasn't I successful..??? And hey, all those losing trades caused by stop losses could have easily been profitable... Had not I noticed that in most cases the trend just reversed after having triggered the stop loss! I decided to increase my stop loss limit (100+ pips).
So I did. I had thus trades that were in the negative for days (I earned interest on the short ones!), but these could nonetheless be closed with profit, after a trend reversal.
This method proved to be profitable, as it decreased the number of losing trades significantly.
I continued trading this way till October. My balance grew to € 40.000.
During these months, having put a lot of time in my trading and in studying the charts, I had seen how simple it is to make a profit of 10 pips per day. Mostly, price moves at least 30 to 50 pips a day.
So, I reasoned, why not try to profit from these intraday movements as well, and make a profit every day, of, let's say, 10 pips minimum? Why performing long term trading, aiming at profits of 100+ pips, but not profiting from the intraday movements? 10 pips a day seem to be easier to achieve than 100 pips. After all, the market is ranging most of the time.
So, I did, and this was the beginning of large profits.
And greed got hold of me.
Starting with 5 lots per trade, I soon opened trades with 10 lots. A movement of 15 pips meant more than € 1.000 profit. Sometimes, it only took me 10 minutes to achieve this. I made € 5.000 per week easily. As rates moved up and down, I tried to profit from every movement. I even started to question the value of stop losses: why using them, if the rate bounces back and forth? In the end, even stop losses fell victim to an increasing greed, I would use mental stop losses instead, I promised myself.....
The obvious back-side of this method (won't call it a system ) is that in each case that the price moves against your trades, the theoretical loss is accumulating fast, very fast. Soon, there was a discrepancy between my gross balance (ultimately 98.000) and my nett balance (40.000). Nonetheless, margin call limits were far away, my long and short positions balanced each other, so I kept my positions.
In fact, I think that I could have continued trading in this way for a very long time. I had already begun to close my most far away open positions, 1/10 lot per 1/10 lot, gradually. I would have had a "balanced" balance soon.
At the end of December, something unpredictable happened, that had nothing to do with the market itself or my way of trading, but with my trading platform.
My trading platform (VT Trader) allows "hedging", having long and short positions opened at the same time, without one neutralizing the other. The only thing you have to look after is to tick the "hedging box" (in the "Open trade" window) when opening a trade.
December 27th, I forgot to do so. Somehow.....the Christmas turkey must have been in the way, or so. I intended to open 10 lots short EURUSD, but - as the hedging box had not been ticked by me - instead I closed down 10 open long lots. The strange thing is, initially I even did not notice, I was in an hurry to do some shopping and got out. When I returned, and looked at my charts, I could not find the trade I had just opened. Only after looking through my open positions, I realized that I had closed some vital long positions instead. Of course, the highest positions (big figures in the red) had been closed. My balance dropped. Moreover, the EURUSD rate started rising. My short positions outnumbered the long ones.
My usuable margin had dropped, dropped with every tick. I really was kind of paralyzed, the flair with which I used to place trades was gone. I could only stare at the screen and see the rate rise against me.
The first week of January, I was forced to close down open short positions to avoid a margin call.
Now, at this moment, my balance is € 36.000.
The funny thing is, I have read a lot about forex, the way to trade ("use a system") and the way to manage your money ("always use stop losses").
Nevertheless, I did think that I could do it my way.
Although I tend to approach Forex seriously, I admit, that I am a bit of a gambler.
Money management counts......
4 Hour Strategy (300+ Pips per Month)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=14630
Glance ... did you hear about this?
MACD is my most important indicator (divergence).
So what you are saying is that you should vote in some Canadians. Bad move dude!
I started looking at weekly pivot points and it is almost as if the big dogs (cats) look at the weekly highs and lows and decide to take it one way or the other. Theses guys have to make their money to satisfy their clients so they do not fool around.
Anybody have any input on this?
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Rallies_Ahead_of_117036746...
In January the main theme in the currency market was dollar strength. This was due to a combination of seasonality and upside surprises in US data. However in February we are beginning to see the tides shift. US data is surprising more often to the downside than to the upside, questioning the sustainability of the impressive growth that we saw in the fourth quarter. This morning we had the national ISM manufacturing index drop right back into contractionary territory to hit the lowest level since April 2003. Having only spent one month in expansionary territory, the manufacturing sector as a whole returned to weakness. The prices paid index rose significantly, but that rise was primarily attributed to the recent increase in energy prices. The employment component of the ISM survey also remained in contractionary territory for the third straight month. This suggests that we could see another month of job losses in tomorrow’s payrolls report for the manufacturing sector. As for the non-farm sector, traders are covering their dollar shorts in anticipation of a strong payrolls report. The leading indicators that we usually watch to forecast payrolls are actually mixed which means that payrolls could be more of a coin toss. To start, the number of jobs added to payrolls in the month of December was a very strong 167k. It will be difficult for January payrolls to surpass that level. Secondly, even though jobless claims have been very lean and the ADP Employment Survey is calling for job growth in excess of 150k, layoffs according to Challenger Gray and Christmas increased by 15 percent from last month. Bloomberg’s forecast of 81 analysts range from 20k to 225k and the CME payroll derivative auction settled at 136.3k this morning. The price action in the US dollar today indicates that traders are expecting a strong report, which means that the bigger market reaction could be if payrolls fall short of expectations, at which time we could see a major flush in the US dollar.
You know what freaks me out? What is the population of the US? 300 million right? And we are supposed to be excited about them creating 150 000 jobs per month? Wooppee frackin do!
It boggles my mind why people freak out about that number.
I understand that the number has to be equal to the amount of new immigrants (working age) that came into the country last month ie they found a job.
But where do you go to see how many people the US accepted as new citizens last month? Correlate that with the job figure (that is skewed to the politicians interests - ie I AM A CONSPIRACY THEORIST) . NFP is a frackin poll for peats sake!
Later dude!
US Non Farm Payrolls (For January 2007) How To Trade the Release
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Non_Farm_Payrolls__For_1170352347269....
This is kinda good.
It sucks that the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report is not released before the NON Farm Payrolls tomorrow! It will be released on Monday.
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1170547200&do=displayweek&month=2&...
I find that the employment section of this report is a much better predictor of payroll data than the sucky and inaccurate ADP report.
Here is an archive of past releases:
http://www.ism.ws/About/MediaRoom/newsreleaselist.cfm?&navItemNumber=5450
All we have to go on is the manufacturing data from yesterday :
Employment
ISM's Employment Index registered 49.5 percent in January, an increase of 0.1 percentage point when compared to December's seasonally adjusted reading of 49.4 percent. This is the third consecutive month that manufacturing employment has contracted. An Employment Index above 49.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment. The six industries reporting growth in employment during January are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Furniture & Related Products.
All we have to go on is the manufacturing data from yesterday :
Employment %
Higher %
Same %
Lower
Net
Index
Jan 2007 14 68 18 -4 49.5
Dec 2006 14 68 18 -4 49.4
Nov 2006 17 63 20 -3 48.9
Oct 2006 17 63 20 -3 50.6
The US is all about services and they keep on adding jobs :
December 2006 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
http://www.ism.ws/about/MediaRoom/newsreleasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=15782
Do you guys have any other sources of info that can possibly predict NON Farm Payrolls?
These reports can be tainted with so my guess is it will be great ... I feel like I am trading stocks again!!!
Ultimatepick
FOREX will change your life for the better. I stopped trading stocks about a year ago. Really liking the currencies. There is a learning curve though.
Paint dries faster than the currency movement tonight! geez! Did I ever tell you that japan session sucks royal azz? Another sleepless night! Actually ... screw this .. I am going to bed .. see you at 2am!
Laterz!