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Let me put it to you this way.
SPY is 5% below it's 200 day on the daily.
Which means...anyone who bought SPY in the last 200 dayz on average is down 5%.
This extend 3 months back in to 2021 from today.
2021 "locked in". The last 3 months of 2021 are laready gone.
The yield curve is still flattening while all yields increase.
The market hasn't even started to take back gains yet.
I don't know what any of that post means.
The only way to set gains in stone is selling them.
PS. Most companies suspended dividends during 2020 and most of 2021.
SPY diverged from the world, who are already at 2020 prices.
Patience. SPY will get there.
Half of those gains already given back in 3 months.
So unless you sold all the indexes already...yes 50% of those gains don't count.
Central bankers have mucked up the market controls so bad.
There is no comparison.
Going in to a recession with rates already at zero?
Bear market for quite some time coming.
Stocks were great to own for 10 years. 2021 was the beginning of the insanity. I don't count it as gains. It's bonds and cashes turn.
It has to be.
It is entirely possible we see 2020 prices again.
US faces 35% risk of recession: Goldman Sachs
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2022/03/11/us-faces-35-risk-of-recession-goldman-sachs/amp/
.5% GDP???
Stagflation is here...and you bought some of the most expensive stocks ever.
All I ever said is it was going to and is a bad time to buy.
All assets over priced it doesn't matter.
Great if you caught a run, but if you haven't sold already, you missed it too.
50% of the NAS and S&P already destroyed...along with small caps.
Now Goldman says they see a recession coming? After market already off 15%?
You averaged up...
I'll be averaging down.
Just have to be in the pack when the volume picks up.
We're still in distribution.
Until we revert to mean cost averaging isn't making any money anyway, and 95% of traders get roasted.
When will they get back in? Who knows...but it should be close to when oil is dirt cheap and interest rates start to dribble back down again.
I'm not debating market timing almost 99% of the time, and options gambling is the low hanging fruit of thieves.
I'm talking about avoiding the slide of an economic contraction that presents itself with the same criteria every time.
You are right long long run.
What history also shows us is we are nowhere near historical mean, and the rest of the world has already mean reverted.
We will too. I don't have to know when, to know it's below here.
All cash.
It's the only thing that goes up during deflation.
And there is no way to diversify out of deflation.
Unless it's cash
It's simple really.
The 2yr/10yr spread. Perfect 7 for 7.
Not becuase it predicts the drop, bit because it causes it.
Big money leaving the market.
The financial system desperately needs rates to match inflation.
"Time in" is irrelevant if rates are 0%.
I don't care what you are "in"
That was also a time when bond yields exceeded inflation.
That is no longer true either
That's taking in to account decades of interst rates being able to erode and inflation rise.
Where do you think we are now.
All of that analysis ignores the current environement.
No it isn't.
That one was inflating. This one is headed for deflation.
FED no longer buying assets. It needs to offload 7T.
It's never happened before. Entirely new stock market.
Just ruler jockeys left looking for the epic "bottom call".
Even though interst rate is zero and needs to be like 5%.
The market has never "bottomed" with hotorically low interst rates. It has always "topped".
Like clockwork.
With every pump money is bailing and buying bonds.
The 2yr-10yr spread has gotten worse.
Things have changed, just not in SPY's favor.
Completely different environment.
It isn't cheaper. Same MCAP.
Suckers bet.
AMZN and GOOG could both already be bought in fractional shares.
It was already the same as a split. Possibly why GOOG hasn't done anything since.
There is no PPT.
Just people trying to time the bottom of the beginning of deflation.
The only answer to inflation
Those are just numbers.
There is no "support".
Just the point where things are cheap. Not sure if you've noticed, but nothing is cheap.
Everything from greenbeans to houses overpriced. Means green bean and house stocks are overpriced too.
So half the rate of DXY.
Check.
Correction June 2021
DXY up 10% since June 01.
How's SPY doing?
Turn off CNBC.
Watcha think happens when the 10 year hits say 4%...and the market flat as a board whiskers from ATH?
Now in order to raise money it needs to find people willing to buy bonds that yield 25% the rate of inflation.
Think they gonna have to raise the yield to entice some buyers?
Me too.
It actually stopped printing a few days ago.
Now comes the sucking sound.
US has the ability and means to manufacture everything in the US, at the detriment of corporate profits.
Way I say it, only thing at risk is corporate profits and valuations.
Rest assured if something drastic happens, and the whole country runs out of computer chips.
Someone in the US will make computer chips in the US.
Some valid stuff, execpt..except...
When things got dicey in Russia, it was the dollar people flocked to.
China depends on us to fuel their economy. They can't play the same game Russia is.
Neither does AMZN, TSLA, TWTR, and on and on.
Food for thought.
The last time rate hikes happened in 2018, UVXY went up for 2 months straight.
The base rate hike announcement happens in like 13 days.
Market driven 30% or more by lower interest rates?
Hmmm...wonder what happens when you have to drastically reverse those rates?
See, he gets it.
It isn't a matter of if, but how low how fast.
Bill Gross sees possibility of stagflation, says he wouldn't be a buyer of stocks here
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/bill-gross-sees-possibility-of-stagflation-says-he-wouldnt-be-a-buyer-of-stocks-here.html
FED and thereby market are screwed.
Everyone knows it, because they know the math.
No rulers needed.
Ironically UVXY up 50% since the start of the year.
Market has bigly imbalance problems, and IMO all the risk is to the downside.
Deflation is inevitable...or 8% interst rate.
Either way cash is good.
Are you sure I was wrong the whole time?
2020=bad year for stocks.
2022=bad year for stocks so far.
Cash beat the market return 2 out of 3 years so far.
Market gains are not independent of inflation.
SPY down 10% this year. Accounting for inflation cash in the market lost 18% to cash's 8%.
Now that the FED is done buying everything, if you are bank, the only way to increase your cash holdings against inflation will be to raise rates to match inflation. Guess what happens to cash value when that happens? Those 2 numbers will inevitably seak each other. Without artificial FED pump, it is the basis of our whole financial system.
When those 2 numbers find equilibrium and the 2021 gains are lost, cash will have been better all 3 years.
Then it will be time to take increasing cash value and buy deflating assets.
PS as of today's price market hasn't gone anywhere since July. 8 months of nothing.
Bitcoin...all the way back to February 2021 prices.
Patience.