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Actually...I'm seeing futures right now going through the roof...and I will be on the sidelines as of tomorrow. Don't know what anything means anymore.
NYAD is much more representative of market health than new highs/new lows. New highs/ New lows signal extremes in markets. Advance/Declines show deterioration/improvement.
Vix shows a bottom...as does this...declining ratio
Depression similarity in charts
Interesting that the move off the first low was a rising wedge lasting 6 months, followed by lower lows. Fits my "new lows by March/April" opinion.
My favorite chart
<<<23 (thereabouts) on the VIX seems to divide bull and bear markets. The current reading is typical of IMPORTANT market LOWS! Let's see what happens next.>>>
I'm looking at the "structure" of the chart...not the level. Levels mean nothing as we have never experienced anything like this before...the basing is more important to me here.
Arbitrarily drawn lines is what I see in your example
Hang Seng
JPM Wedge Break
Break of the wedge
FOOTSIE
I looked at this chart because I was reading an article on how the debt levels in UK were ridiculously high and what a mess they've gotten into.
Seems it doesn't matter to the Footsie...until it does.
http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3078296/the-true-extent-of-britains-debt.thtmlhttp://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
SCROLL DOWN FOR CHART
Get ready for some VOLATILITY!
So don't pay attention to them
Scroll down on previous post to see my chart.
Didn't break down through the support line yet...but with all the other confirmations....it will...IMO!
Some moves after rising wedges
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/rising_wedge.asp
Put/Call
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/cboe_eqpcr.aspx
Advance/Decline signal
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41722197
Key reversal in S&P
It all adds up....It's "holistic"
Wedge complete with an exclamation point. Key reversal today in S&P!
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/key_reversal.php
Using the scientific method requires observable data. If your "price science" is to be upheld by the scientific method, there must be data presented that is observable and open for all to see.
Your claim to 80% accuracy can easily be verified by posting entry and exit points of trades.
If you really wanted a "scientific" study of your method, you would welcome the opportunity to bolster your hypothesis with evidence of success through the posting of ACTUAL TRADES.
The key to this post is that the low was actually made in October and the subsequent low in March was higher and diverged from price action.
Same here...only to the downside.
Lower high diverging from higher high in price.
OT...don't know much about this but it could get interesting.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/LANDMARK-DECISION-PROMISES-by-Ellen-Brown-090921-894.html
So lever up....buy some calls.
What positions are you holding?
I have 2000 FAZ and 50 JPM Oct 45 Puts.
I'll be buying WFC puts tomorrow.
Advance/Decline signal top is in
Or the party could be over
Are you the new "post-police"?
Thought it was interesting.
Your method has proven correct since May...as it will in a strongly trending market after a capitulation phase. We'll see how well it works in other trading environments over time.
Every good trader uses all information to create a "holistic" picture before entering a trade. I was leveraged fully long in stock from March until May and made enormous profits from that. My bearishness since, expecting a retest of the low, has so-far been mistaken. It won't break me.
Congratulations on your call, hope you made money.
Shipping photos...interesting.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/thousands-rusting-ship-hulls-are-fitting-tribute-speculative-market-bubble
I heard on Bloomberg radio that day rates for shippers were under $10K/day now...under the average cost of operation for the vessel.
At the height of the real estate bubble...they were commanding $300K/day.
They have no choice...they CANNOT allow rates to climb. Real estate values would fall even further and the toxic assets and corresponding derivatives oustanding would collapse.
Trapped.
Back in FAZ and bought 50 Oct45 JPM puts.
Projected low 9/24
Stopped out...sidelines...ugly
JPM Rising wedge weekly
JPM Top
Here's a link to the weekly I posted
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41132019
Bought 10 JPM Oct45 puts at open.
Vix warning
It's all good. The over quadrillion dollars in derivative "value" won't be impacted at all by massive institutional default.
Rally time!
http://www.infiniteunknown.net/2008/06/11/total-notional-value-of-derivatives-outstanding-surpasses-one-quadrillion/
OK...maybe not a quadrillion
http://investment-blog.net/scary-occ%E2%80%99s-quarterly-report-on-bank-trading-and-derivatives-activities-first-quarter-2009/
Baltic Dry leads
http://www.benzinga.com/sleibhin/2009/9/8/baltic-dry-index
Rail freight...no improvement...
http://railfax.transmatch.com/
Amazing that with this remarkable recovery the world is experiencing, there is no increase in goods shipped...
How about consumer liquidity:
May Consumer Credit: Down 8.8%
June Consumer Credit: Down 15.5%
July Consumer Credit: down 21.6%
Consumer spending = 70% of US Economy
And what will be the multi-Trillion bubble created to reflate the economy THIS time...when debt levels are where they are, housing equity is wiped out, the financial industry will not participate in the creation of another housing bubble, people don't trust the stock market, baby boomers are at a time where they cannot continue to be exposed 100% to equities as portfolio theory recommends declining exposure to equities in the "out years"
So if THAT pattern failed, without the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression, what makes you think this situation has a rosier conclusion?
You could not ask for a more representative chart to support what is about to happen...
Thank you!
Fits perfectly with my Spring 2010 bottom...(new lows) projection.
6 month correction followed by new lows and ultimate bottom 4 months out.
Don't you trade "structures", or previously occurring market patterns?
Seems you see what you want to see...bias?...