Making Marijuana Millionaires
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I cant finfd the Beacon PDF covering SHWZ , now that i have been cutoff from 420investor i dont have access , if you or anyone finds it plaease post
Huh , what are you talking about ? Please dont waste my time with your ridiculous posts, I tolerate your pumping , but dont prove to me your a BOT
Roth Capital
Cannabis remains a compelling secular growth story, macro headwinds and legislative delays are a near-term issue: We remain bullish on the cannabis investment opportunity in the U.S., viewing the $65B+ U.S. illicit market as a material market conversion opportunity. We believe as the industry matures, pricing will compress naturally as access improves, bringing new consumers into the legal channels while cultivation scale offsets margin pressure. We still expect the U.S. to reach over ~$100B in sales at maturity and believe these stocks will trade in-line with CPG peers at ~4.0x NTM EV/sales, with MSOS currently trading at a 50% discount at 2.0x. Cannabis legalization on both a state and federal level should accelerate as more U.S. states legalize (19 adult-use), forcing the eventual federal movement to open up U.S. operators to U.S. exchanges uplistings. We believe the best path forward for cannabis reform is an incremental approach, and we are warming up on the signaling political willingness in the positioning for a potential SAFE+ passage.
So Sowee your few thousand shares are going up fast enough LOL
You can slice and dice any way you want ,I suppose you would be blaming a bank or another lender in this post if it was different then Dye capital ? But I doubt it, Your hidden agenda has been exposed too many times on this Chat .
The simple fact remains that SHWZ debt is it alignment if not similar to many other mso's in fact probably even better when you consider Many MSO's delayed taxes they haven't been paid. If it wasn't lent by Justin DYE’s capital firm ,then it would have been lent by another capitalist firm for similar to higher interest rates. In fact it would be double if you tried to shop at right now so stop with your bogus posts and tell the truth get off this board with your dribble
Wow , you must be a bot as mecurial as your posts get ? Its very confusing the way the posts swing from wild promotional behaviour to parroting the doom and gloom, pay for play scumbags like Alan Brochstein. Pick a side Beacon Securities did just on Monday ,
Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley said;
“Schwazze, is demonstrating that rethegional strategy, built on a customer first approach, developing significant scale, building brands and leveraging data analytics and technology is not only sound but gaining momentum as demonstrated by revenue and unit sales growth, customer loyalty and by once again outpacing the legacy market growth by approximately 12 per cent,” he said.
Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley likes the look of Schwazze, especially management, which he called shareholder aligned and bringing with it strong depth in the retail sector. Stanley cited that Schwazze officers and directors own over 77 million common share equivalents, representing 55 per cent of the basic shares outstanding, with CEO Dye owning 41 million common share equivalents and two million options. Moreover, pointing to the pedigrees of both Dye and Chief Strategy Officer Todd Williams, Stanley said Schwazze management is punching well above its weight given its market cap of C$281 million.
“Mr. Dye previously served in several C-Suite roles with Albertsons Companies, where he was instrumental in making it one of the largest food and drug retailers in the United States. During Mr. Dye’s tenure, Albertsons expanded annual sales from $10 billion to $60 billion, expanding to 2,300+ stores with 285,000 employees,” Stanley wrote.
Looking at Schwazze’s focus in Colorado, Stanley said the market remains competitive but it’s ripe for consolidation. With a population of 5.7 million, Colorado has the second largest legal cannabis market in the world at 2021 sales of $2.2 billion. The analyst noted that sales are down 21 per cent year-to-date, however, as access to capital in the tighter market remains difficult. But that should only make it more likely that additional vendors will come forward as ripe for the picking, Stanley said.
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
- Benjamin Graham
As Warren Buffett said, "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"
I’m an optimist who buys and HODL and never sells ....at least not until 20 bucks or more
New Mexico cannabis sales bring in $40 million in August, also there is a nice little interactive map with sales per city in this article
https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-august-cannabis-sales-2022/41105933
The Beacon securites guy must get his intel from us , as this is the most complete source of intel collection out there , at least that i can find
Lots of chatter about interstate commerce from the west coast plus a judge in the northeast a few weeks ago decided restricting interstate commerce is illegal , JD said he picked Lowell for the premium brand they bring and these lowell 35's reprsent a whole new concept in terms of price point and usage. We cant get them unless interstate happens or we get one of there machines.
We're rolling right toward launch! #Lowell35s #L35s pic.twitter.com/tAJgjZHal4
— Lowell Farms (@LowellFarms) September 6, 2022
Jefferies Capital on Safe
Calls for decriminalization: Recent Weekly's have outlined our increasing optimism that we may see some kind of legislative reform over the coming months, and critically, from an investment perspective, some change that could lead to capital market protections, uplistings, and a flood of new institutional investment.
The most likely route has been an omnibus SAFE Banking+ bill, but there were a couple of updates this week around another possible option, decriminalization of cannabis at the federal level. First, on Monday, 8/29, as per Marijuana Moment, PA Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), called on President Biden to enact decriminalization, and said he would press him on the matter at a Labor Day Parade. On the same day, PA Gov. Tom Wolf (D), also tweeted his support for decriminalization. Second, also on Monday, 8/29, the White House Press Secretary was asked about Biden decriminalizing cannabis, to which she reiterated Biden's support for decimalization (among other cannabis related measures) and that the administration's doesn't have "anything to announce today at this point".
In unpacking these developments, there are a number of considerations, which mean, in our view, the possibility of decriminalization should perhaps not be ruled out. One, decriminalization was one of Biden's campaign promises when he ran for election. Two, such a move would not have to go via the normal legislative process, with congressional researchers concluding in 2021 that he can make this change via executive authority. Three, this is not the first time Biden has been pressed recently on decriminalization, when in July, six Democrat senators wrote to Biden calling him to deschedule cannabis (effectively decriminalization) using executive authority. Four, although the White House did not say there were plans for decriminalization, we do note the comments were notably different in tone to when asked the question in the recent past, specifically the statement discussing "... at this point". This, alongside recent White House clemency actions, comments back in June from AG Garland that the Justice Department is "examining" marijuana policy and will be addressing the issue "in the days ahead", as well as Biden clearly now looking at actions that can secure him votes - the example being the recent student debt relief - would suggest possible actions of some sort may well be being discussed.
One other recent development that we think is important to flag with regard to potential federal reform over the next 12 months is that odds for who will control the Senate have very recently shifted back in favor of the Democrats. The fear was, if Dems didn't get something done now, and should Republicans retake the Senate, prospects for any action over the next few years would be slim, this due to Republican Senate Majority Leader McConnell being anti-cannabis.
If Democrats do keep the Senate, and given recent momentum behind cannabis legislative change, which will likely also include more states passing legalization measures in the mid terms, if it is the case nothing has happened by year-end, we still think good prospects for something in 2023. Yes it looks like Republicans will re-rake the House, and while Republican House Leader McCarthy is hardly pro-cannabis, he is unlikely to stand in the way of modest reform, having voted for SAFE twice in the past, as well as voting for the Medical Marijuana Research Act.
Roth Capital
Weekly ReHash: Fall Marks Busy News Flow Around Federal Legislation SAFE+
As U.S. Senators return from their summer recess, we believe the legislative focus on cannabis will become more forefront of the mind and start to shape incremental cannabis reform. The long-awaited comprehensive cannabis reform bill, Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act (CAOA), was introduced on July 21st, and as a reminder, we believe the filed version of the CAOA was necessary to start the discussion on incremental cannabis reform, but dead on arrival in the Senate requiring 60 votes to pass. As expected, the three main sponsors of the CAOA, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), have conceded that the votes may not be there to pass the wide-ranging comprehensive legalization. As a result, these leading Senators are now vocalizing plans to pursue alternative incremental legislation, which we believe will be the shaping of a SAFE+ bill.
Theory , Tier 2 or 3 Mso Cannabis stocks are comparatively slower to rise/react due to low volume liquidity, so logically those changes in investors sentiment of the sector will show up in price that is measured in weeks and months rather than instantly
Shwz
Best in class management team with a contrarian MSO strategy focusing on scale with a super regional footprint.
Yes he terminated by private reply, because he is too ashamed to do it publicly , He is a very dishonest guy you can see by the chart he put up how many lies he told .
I always hesitate to comment to his posts ,because he is so combative and abusive . I stayed because i liked the Data aggregation , its fatser then all other sources and you get Anaylst reports . I stopped giving much relevance to his boasting and arrogance yrs ago .In SHWZ case he did it purposley, these actions can effect stocks , ive seen the effect for yrs after he posts a buy or sell , there is so little volume on the OTC . There are lot of anonymous lurkers that listen to him that are powerfull industry people .
Here is a small piece from a lawsuite he currently is in
" law, rule, or regulation" to which a CFA "must" comply to avoid misleading investors who may erroneously believe New Cannabis Ventures or Alan Brochstein, CFA's articles are neutral. Alan Brochstein, CFA and New Cannabis Ventures have been publishing articles that lack adequate disclosure of their solicitations for payment from companies.
I though the debt was 160 mil as well , Its is my understanding SHWZ has 149 mil shares as many converts are out of the money
AB Just said 3 weeks ago in the SHWZ forum that he though Justin Dye was ARROGANT , he said he wasnt interested in covering SHWZ anymore , he removed them from the Focus List 6 to 8 months ago .
So why did he go out of the way to misrepresent so many figures on saturday ?
Justin Dye told me personally at the Boca Raton Luncheon that AB was acting that way because He stopped the SHWZ , Pay To Play Game that AB hides behind with New Cannabis ventures.
If you read the chart he put out in a public forum he totally misrepresents all of SHWZ numbers from Debt , profit , EV , projected Rev for 2022 and 2023
He is a CFA and he shouldnt post misinformation
Analyst commentary on possible cannabis reform
Jefferies on 🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿 pic.twitter.com/tZYR2SJ3ZQ
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) September 4, 2022
Well , this comment got me Banned from 420 investor , after 7 yrs of paying the fee and putting up with arrogance and dishonesty , I couldnt Let Alan Brochstein balatantly lie to the group because of His hate for Justin Dye
Maybe im wrong but check this spreeadsheet for total debt of companies , he inflated SHWZ debt in my opinion
Doc , a few down days and then you preach gloom and doom and conspiracy theories , Instead the reality is the price was 1.38 with 14 minutes left to trade then 3 to 4 thousand shares traded to manipulate the price down the last 13 minutes of the day ,, Maybe it was you . Your posting are very mecurial
The scale of whats about to happen is enormous
I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines…
— George Allen (@G4Geronimo) August 31, 2022
If you love smoking weed, September is going to be one for the books. @LowellFarms pic.twitter.com/NTMoDyN5zQ
Lots of positves points to consider for the overall Cannabis stocks from Echelon Capitol
Echelon on 🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) September 1, 2022
"meaningful FCF going forward"
"charts positively inflected after 1.5 yrs"
"turnaround portends potential regulatory catalysts"
"consensus estimates reduced; expectations rt-sized"
"space looks compelling; buy across market caps per risk appetite." pic.twitter.com/XV86kG4UAR
Hard to deny the benfits of Cannabis
A man with Parkinson's tries cannabis for the first time 🤯pic.twitter.com/b0HS42T5Cv
— UberFacts (@UberFacts) August 31, 2022
Wonder where shwz lands on this list , there is alot of insider ownership @ Shwz im not sure how that compares to all other cannabis companies in terms of stock pased compensation as a % of revenue
Here's what I'm seeing as SBC to revenue ratios for Q2'22$GLASF remained in the top spot with a leading 21.2% (up from 19.2% in Q1)$AYRWF $MRMD $PLNHF $AAWH $TRSSF $JUSHF $VRNOF $CCHWF $GRAMF $GDNSF $CRLBF $GTBIF $CURLF $TCNNF $CXXIF $FFNTF $LOWLF $VIBEF $CNTMF $MSOS $MJUS https://t.co/9OZclNjFUr pic.twitter.com/OdOGE2vI1r
— LogicPrevails (@LogicPrevails_) August 31, 2022
I like this guys perspective
I have found canna stocks often slow to react (possibly due to limited liquidity) so it would make sense to me that changes in market participants' view of the sector show up in price over days and weeks rather than instantly
— LogicPrevails (@LogicPrevails_) August 31, 2022
"Anybody can jump a motorcycle. The trouble begins when you try to land it." - Evel Knievel
Trying to land on the best cannabis stock to buy is almost damn near impossible ,it seems to me the best stocks are those where most people think the person or intial underlying idea is crazy…
This is why the best stocks seem literally to the late-commers as ...insane
They say insanity's twin sister is Passion ,,, Justin Dye has passion for Cannabis , he actually uses it in edible format. Passion is the fuel the helps implement the Vision and he has a strong Vision and Passion for Cannabis . Not every body can land a jump across the Grand canyon , But my bet is Justin Dye will be the one to do it , sure there are others that will land the jump but i would rather watch someone who has style and grace while he is landing it and doesnt care what people say about him while he is doing it . This why no ones really talks about Schwazze .
Institutional Research
Is 30% the New 40%
A Look At Evolving MSO Margin Trends
Following the 1st Half of 2022 earnings season, we believe its appropriate to take a closer look at reasonable EBITDA margin profiles to expect of MSOs. While FY2 Street expectation have fallen nearly 10 pts over the last roughly year and a half, we believe current -30% margin expectations (average among large MSOs) remain healthy & that prior expectations near 40% in early 2020 had gotten ahead of their skis, partially attributable to the benefit of high margin newer adult use & medical states having a larger impact on margins, with margin enhancement opportunities pushed out by regulatory delays of sales in new adult use markets or sale opportunities (i.e., IL retail), pricing pressure in markets sooner than expected (MA & PA) & inflation driving lower avg. ticket & downtrading. That said, MSOs still deliver a more attractive margin & growth profile compared to mature consumer categories such as CPG & high-growth retail, but trade at a 50%+ EBITDA multiple discount. While improved fundamentals could help narrow the gap, we view uplisting & 280E alleviation as needed for a more notable multiple rerating-with uplisting potentially coming if the SAFE Act is passed later this year.
Margin Expectations Coming Down
Expectations for EBITDA margins by the Street reached a peak in March 2021, when consensus was estimating FY2 EBITDA margins near 40% among leading MSOs (above $900M EV today) who were public at the time. Since, we have seen margin expectations come down due to a number of factors, including pricing pressure in key markets (such as PA & MA), broader macro trends such as inflation straining the consumer wallet, & supply chain issues causing input costs to rise - with the Street estimating FY2 EBITDA margins of -30% today.
EBITDA Margin Expectations Have Fallen From Nearly 40% to -30%
Updated Margin Expectations May Be More of a Reset to Reality
While FY2 EBITDA margin expectations have fallen nearly 10 points in the last roughly year & half, we would argue that Street expectations may have gotten ahead of their skis. We see this as predominately due a number of key markets being at the earlier stages of its maturity curve, resulting in high margin sales as operators benefitted from higher wholesale & retail prices. Indeed, Street FY2 margin expectations in early 2020 were -30%, roughly equal to today, which one could argue is favorable given macro conditions (when compared to other consumer sectors). Part of the reason for the rise in expectations to nearly -40% average is what we believe to be expectations of new markets margin profiles & prices remaining high in newer markets, with neither dynamic being sustainable & moreso a function of market timing of oscillating maturity curves, in our view. We would also note that the law of numbers, limits the impact of new adult-use state as operators become larger, with the margin lift from new adult use states such as IL (began Jan 2020) in the year 2020 setting higher margin lift expectations for upcoming adult use states such as AZ, NJ, NY & CT, which had begun or legalized in the 1H22 time frame when margins were at peak levels. All of this to say, that in a steady state of diversified markets & oscillating maturity curves, we believe 30% EBITDA margins should still be viewed favorably.
Taking a Longer View, Margins Have More so Returned to Pre-COVID Levels
Comparing to Mature Consumer Categories, MSOS Remain Attractive
In fact, when comparing to mature consumer categories, MSOs EBITDA margin average of -30% still fares higher than that of large CPG companies at 25% as well as high-growth retail at -10%. Furthermore, we continue to note how MSO's are still expected to see greater sales growth over the next two years, despite recently tempered MSO sales expectations recently, with MSOS expecting to grow sales -20% in 2023, compared to -4% for CGP & -8% for high-growth retail. Despite this, MSOs still trade at a more than 50% discount to these mature consumer categories, with MSOS -6.7x EV/EBITDA multiple well below that of CPGs ~15x & high-growth retail's 13.6x. Even in scenarios of assuming incremental margin pressure, MSOS still trade at a meaningful discount, with an assumed 20% EBITDA margin (based off current sales expectations), still resulting in FY2 EV/EBITDA multiple of just 10.5x. While we believe improved fundamentals will help close the gap, we see the need for the ability to uplist to major exchanges and alleviate 280E tax hurdles (so that EBITDA is a better proxy for cash flow) as needed for MSOS to trade more at parity to these consumer categories (or even a premium given its higher growth outlook).
MSOs Continue to Offer Greater Growth & Higher Margins Than Traditional CPG & Retail
Why MSO EBITDA Margins May Now Be Bottoming
There are a number of signs that might indicate the margin outlook for MSOs will start to stabilize & has started to find a bottom, though there could be another quarter or two of near-term margin pressure. We see this as a function of a number of factors including: 1) New Adult-Use States: NJ sales ramping as well as the beginning of adult use sales in CT, NY & RI (along w VA in 2024) should provide high-margin sales to operators in initially supply constrained markets, 2) MSOs Increasing Vertical Integration: During 20 eaming season, a number of MSOS noted proactive steps to increase vertical integration in markets with pricing pressure to maintain margins, 3) Adjusting Spending to the Times: Managements teams spoke to a slowdown or tempered SG&A spending as operators adjust to the current environment, 4) Broader Capital Constraint Could Force Rationalization: As we have called out in the past, broader capital scarcity and difficulties for operators to operate profitably (& more specifically CF positive) could force rationalization of pricing, particularly in mature markets (such as CO), which should help stabilize margins, 5) Increased Cost Efficiencies: MSOs are focused on realizing additional cost efficiencies amid pricing pressure, which we believe could come via increased automation. That said, we remain cautious on prices continuing to decline in maturing adult-use states such as MA, along with broader macro trends pressuring the consumer wallet causing down trading. As such, while we believe there could be near-term margin pressure, we remain bullish on MSOs' ability to generate healthy margins over time, with management teams largely reiterating their long-term EBITDA targets during the eamings season (though more lofty margin expectations may be more difficult to sustain).
Schwazze is acting like its in the Major leagues , Michael Jordan's famous quote "You have to act like it, before you become it. "
To me this type of job comes from a company with major experience in the complexities of running huge businesses.
Job Description
Regional Manager Cannabis Schwazze Denver, CO Full-time Job details Salary $80,000 - $120,000 a year Base + 10-30% Performance Based Bonus Potential Position Objective: The focus of this role is to provide support to all retail managers and staff while ensuring that all retail operations are performing to company standards. This role will also focus on preparing retail stores for compliance inspections. Key Accountabilities Acts as a liaison between Schwazze Support Center and assigned Regions. Responsible for overseeing all functions associated with management and oversight of all retail stores operating in the assigned Region. Responsible for maintaining financial discipline in sales, margin, labor, SG&A, and inventory management Captures data to analyze revenue, margin, mix, and customer satisfaction In charge of interviewing, hiring, coordinating, mentoring and disciplining store managers, asst. managers, and all field staff. Train all managers to ensure that all Standard Operations Procedures are met, in store operations are running as efficient and consistent as possible and all records are kept to all state and local compliance standards. Ensure that management staff has the proper knowledge to conduct all delegated tasks and responsibilities. Ensure management staff is aware of all company policies and procedures. Maintain an open line of communication for all team members and communicate all initiatives to the Head of Retail and/or VP of Retail. Manage and supervise the activities of dispensary staff and make recommendations or decisions regarding hiring, discipline, termination, or advancement of employees.
From Eight Capital ( no target on SHWZ)
MSO target revisions: We have refreshed our target prices to reflect updated estimates coming out of Q2 reporting, along with
market- and sector-wide multiple compression since our last revisions.
Target-setting multiples range from 11.5x - 19x, compared to the previous range of 11.5x - 24x. Our target-setting multiples are supported by analogous peer groups (Beer, Alcohol, Tobacco, Retail, and CPG) which trade between 9x - 19x, and are informed by the group's peak-to-trough range of ~8x - ~24x. Key risks to our target price include stalled efforts to pass federal cannabis reform this fall/winter, broad economic deterioration that impacts consumer spending, and general market volatility
This is what i found ,,,same numbers
https://fintel.io/so/us/shwz
Wow right at the open 22,000 share bid block at 1.46
New dispensary in Harvard opening
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tilt-holdings-receives-approval-launch-120000954.html
Lowell 35's: Pre-Rolls Perfected. Rolled never Filled
Lowell 35's: Pre-Rolls Perfected. pic.twitter.com/sICGLW4GuR
— Lowell Farms (@LowellFarms) August 29, 2022
California Bills To Authorize Interstate Marijuana Commerce And Seal Records Head To Governor
="[IC] contingent on official assurance that the activity would not put the state at risk of federal enforcement action."
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/california-bills-to-authorize-interstate-marijuana-commerce-and-seal-records-head-to-governor-with-more-reforms-pending/
Nice article on Cannabis industry
https://cen.acs.org/environment/Cannabis-industry-inches-toward-sustainability/100/i30
True story about shelf competition, I have a friend that represents High Noon alcoholic seltzer. He is down here in Florida and services 10 Publix grocery stores. Just yesterday he was telling me the Budweiser guy that got 40 skus in the chilled drink section The competition has been stacking their new product right on top of his, These guys make a living on Commission so they have to try to visit the grocery stores every day to make sure their product is front and center. He's got one product on the Shelf they've got 40 + but they constantly cheat and try to hide his product. I could think of so many analogies about this story from how valuable the Shelf space will be in the dispensaries without the Shelf space you can't push your brand Justin talked about that often.
I remember him saying that retail is a full-contact sport 24/7. His grocery store knowledge is probably the greatest asset because will be dealing with low priced commodities , where branding and shelf velocity Is huge in getting the returns that are needed .
Another thing I want to mention about Publix in Florida I believe it's most similar to what Schwazze is trying to do. They're in every town and city in Florida many times over, I could literally walk from one to another location . Sure there's competition But geographically speaking they can't be beat. That's sort of the main point that I got out of his last interview on YouTube