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I missed something here. Did Reuters stop coverage of Zion today? If so, why is this a tell?
I have a thought on why he would gift those shares now:
If you haven't looked up the gift tax scheme in the US, it's horrendously stupid. You are limited to gift $15,000 per year without having to pay taxes on that gift. After that, the gift GIVER must pay taxes on the gift given, up to 40% of the gift.
So it could be that Mr. Carrillo is giving stock gifts at $4/share in order to minimize the tax burden. It would be a smart thing to do prior to a huge jump in share price.
Just a thought. If true, I hope it doesn't get him in trouble with the IRS in the near future
Hang in there Spike. We've got about 2 weeks left. Oil's going back over $100/bbl. Think about that
That is a good question. I wonder if Zion has an agreement on pricing with the state of Israel that would hedge against extreme price swings in the market?
I got it now. Thanks buddy!
Dude, you are the excel master! I'm not counting our chickens before they're hatched, but if Zion succeeds in it's stated mission and it happens at $150/bbl, then, well, your spreadsheet says it all.
I think JRyan and Tisdale did their pps netback estimates based on $50/bbl oil. Imagine what their numbers would be if you add another $100 to their netback!
Oil going to $150/bbl? It's a perfect storm brewing....
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/07/06/big-oil-sowing-the-seeds-for-crude-prices-above-150-bernstein-warns.html
So the primary concern of the seismic activity would be any damage to the integrity of the well bore.
Outside of that, the seismic activity should actually help by creating additional fractures in the geology.
Thanks for the response. You've been a real blessing to me and many others on this board
KyOil, what's the likelihood that the seismic activity in the area has changed the characteristics of MJ#1? Is it possible that Zion will need to redo the flow testing?
Venezuela and Libya have both virtually stopped shipping oil and the new sanctions on Iran has curtailed their oil sales. In addition, I read this week that the infrastructure in the US is maxed out. We could produce more oil, but pipelines are at max capacity.
My expectation is that Zion would provide a P10, P50 and P90 estimates like was provided in the Garb report
I did see the map. Pretty cool and not far from trouble (as JRyan has also pointed out)
Just saw on my TD Ameritrade account that MarketEdge upgraded Zion from AVOID to NEUTRAL today
When we finally all get together and meet to celebrate Zions successful completion of the MJ wells, we can have a healthy debate about which one is the best! ??
Actually, I was just a wee lad driving my parents crazy during Mr. Bojangles heyday. It's funny that the song became such a pop hit as the story of the song is so country (guy gets drunk/thrown in jail/depressed about his dog dyin') ??
I'm guessing you were in your teens during that time?
John Brown was probably starting his machine tool business at that point. Who knows, he may have been Mr. Bojangles ??
I'm more of an Amy Grant/Michael W. Smith guy myself
Micro, thank you for reposting this PR. After re-reading, the statement where Zion says they are "balancing a sense of urgency with a zero tolerance policy with regard to health, safety, security and environmental incidents " (my paraphrase), I realized now what the impact of the careful environmental stewardship of the site must have had on the time to completion.
Earlier this week we had a thread running about the exact location of the well. In following the links that were posted, I ran across this snippet about the kibbutz that Zion has had to deal with locally. Given that the kibbutz is a group of organic farmers who have developed natural means to keep crops free of pests without the use of pesticides, I'm sure the zero tolerance policy regarding environmental incidents has played no small part in the amount of time and cost it has taken to complete and test this well.
https://jewishaction.com/jewish-world/israel/on-and-off-the-beaten-track-in-kibbutz-sde-eliyahu/
Just something to factor in as we await the PR
It was written by Jerry Jeff Walker, but the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band was probably most famous for the song
Thank you Motowngurl. May Zion be the instrument that He uses to fulfill this passage
Well said!
I really appreciate everyone's opinion so far on the anticipated date of the PR. I hadn't thought about the opportunity that the mid-week occurrence of the July 4th holiday affords. But my thought was, given how deliberate Zion has been with the testing of this well, that they may seek a final, 3rd party verification of test results, which could add a number of days. I would greatly appreciate the opinion of some of the roughnecks on this board on the potential of 3rd party verification and how much additional time it might take. In the meantime, to the rest of my friends here on this board (especially Spike) I encourage you not to lose heart if the announcement comes later than what we anticipate.
But so far, my date is the latest, someone said Monday, but a consensus seems to be forming around July 3rd. Anyone else? Tisdale? KyOil? Ratbike? JRyan? Dolphin? TAB?
I believe, if I've counted days correctly since the last operational update, that we have now entered the time window that the testing results PR could be released. Given what we do know (weeks, not months), what day does everyone think the PR will be released? I believe it will be July 23rd.
Have a blessed weekend everyone!
Spike, look forward to meeting you and all our friends on this board some day soon. Appreciate your informative posts too.
If Zion were to do a press release at say, 5pm on a Friday, would the stock be halted on the following Monday opening bell, or would the NASDAQ consider the weekend enough time for the news to be disseminated?
Yeah, I have to be careful with my autocorrect, ??! That's quite a run-up on WTIC. Any guess to whether it will have an impact on ZN pps today?
It would be great if the Israeli Ministry of Energy made an announcement that "based on the results submitted by Zion Oil & Gas, MJ has been reclassified from exploratory to a Discovery and the license has been converted to a 50 yr lease". That would make for a great weekend
Billnight, jeep in mind that if you try to value the stock on a discounted cash flow basis, you come up with a stock price in the ball park to what JRyan has posted
Tothe - What is WTIC?
Oh well. Regardless of the number, they're in trouble
That chart is just amazing. Think about everything that has transpired since Feb (oil found, flow testing, hpht well, multiple connected zones of interest, etc.) and yet the shorting continues. Reminds me of how Pharoah continued to harden his heart regardless of the plagues that came one after the other.
I feel like we are at a pause similar to the one described below:
8 When he opened the seventh seal, there was silence in heaven for about half an hour.
2 And I saw the seven angels who stand before God, and seven trumpets were given to them.
3 Another angel, who had a golden censer, came and stood at the altar. He was given much incense to offer, with the prayers of all God’s people, on the golden altar in front of the throne. 4 The smoke of the incense, together with the prayers of God’s people, went up before God from the angel’s hand.
I wouldn't bet against you JRyan. I believe, as do many on this board, that the hearts of the shorts are hardened. They are dug in and I believe have doubled down
I'm going with 5.1 million
The verse is very timely my friend!
Some traders who are participants on this board have expressed a lot of frustration with the progress made over the last 2 weeks and with the information provided in the PR.
While I feel bad for those who'd bought May & July calls, this is not a good stock to trade near term options. ZN is a wildcat exploration company drilling in unknown territory. I've worked in engineering for over 30 years and I can tell you that the best planned projects NEVER go exactly as planned (I'm sure JRyan can attest to this). This well, being drilled in unknown geology is no different. Do not be angry that Zion ran into an unanticipated problem as the testing progressed. This is how things go. Expect it. And my advice would be to take whatever timeline is anticipated for Zion's progress with this well and add 25%. And pray for the continued integrity of the well.
Between the HPHT confirmation and now this subtle change in objective, it woul indeed appear NG is in play. It is curious that there have been no pictures of flaring. Looks like Geo may indeed have been onto something with his NG hypothesis, although maybe a little pessimistic about the commercial potential IMHO.
Thank you KyOil and Tisdale. The timeline of events you've laid out make a lot of sense. It's obvious they ran into an issue and had to modify their testing plan. For anyone to suggest Zion has done nothing for the last 2 weeks is nonsense.
A question for Tisdale: have any of Zion's previous PR's stated this phrase in this context - "Ultimately, that’s by finding and producing commercial amounts of oil and/or natural gas. " ?
I don't recall such a direct reference to natural gas
I'll keep posting this until the message finally gets through. Zion's exec's are not overpaid. This article looks at Vic's salary specifically and determines it's in line with where Zion is currently at.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zion-oil-gas-inc-nasdaq-012220003.html
KyOil - This is a great point and a thought I'd had a while ago. What if the blessings of the deep are not oil, but Lithium? The 2 major sources of Lithium in the world today are China and Argentina. Given Lithium's importance in the electrification of just about everything, a huge find of Li would be a bonanza to Israel.
Hey guys, I think this post got lost in the Russell discussion. I found this quote from the article interesting
"Separately, BidaskClub upgraded shares of Zion Oil & Gas from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, March 17th."
Porgie - this accusation of Zion's exec's being overpaid keeps popping up. Here's an article that dispels that myth
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zion-oil-gas-inc-nasdaq-012220003.html
Geo, I actually appreciate your contrarian view, as long as it's supported by facts. I don't want this board to be an echo chamber like those that exist in politics. My desire, and I know I speak for many, is that the truth be spoken. Everything else will take care of itself