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Yes and yes, I think.
I definitely didn't mean *that* kind of pivot! Some use the term 'fractal' in a charting reference, not the mathematical term.
I don't really believe in pivots, except that I know people use them and that will affect market psychology. The math therein is rather arbitrary, IMO.
I would like to see $45.2x hit. Planning on trading after the report.
Good morning pleebs.Gonna wait til after the report to react this week. I don't think there's much to be made from the reaction buying anything prior. Already positioned and hedged for any/either move.
Both pivot and LOD. Low of any day is going to be a pivot, right? Well unless it closes on its low and only continues lower the next day, which pretty much never happens!
If I called $45.77 yesterday then maybe you'd ask to borrow the time machine again.
$46.16/$46.20 are from the 5 min low from yesterday 8/28 near Noon EDT, not overnight.
Look back in June/July for pivots and consolidation at price levels. Just make sure you're using a continuous/front month chart and not a contract specific chart. I wasn't looking at weeklies. Probably hourly to look that far back.
API draw and only 14 cent blip.-5.78MM bbl crude.
And buying some back at a nice discount!
One more flushout in the next 30-40 mins? Probably a small one, but new lows for the day is my guess.
Squeezed another $4+ from this cash cow. Love it.
SVXY
Another easy money day with DWT.
Cashing/slow-rolling some +3x to +4.5x positions.
4 cents form the $45.80 target so far. Not bad...
And with that break looking for lower targets like $45.80 and $45.41 next.
lol @ hedgehog. Forgot about that. Now just watch for a test or break of $46.16, or 5 minute close under $46.20.
Keep up the questions...I think you ask good ones! Don't know about lessons, but good discussion about what works and what doesn't is always appreciated.
I don't know about $50 before some lower target like $43/$44 first. We'll see. Smart move to exit the U side, though.
..was expecting a test closer to $47 first.
Looks like another dump coming...
Nice after-hours action today.
I was thinking about your question a bit over the weekend...and I think that the intuition is akin to some of the oscillator type indicators. But when you aren't using such indicators you have to 'see' divergence or lack thereof and visualize such indicators over multiple time frames...even while you are looking at one chart. Same for the relative strength of any move.
Is it always reliable? Heck no. While I do make a lot of well timed calls throughout the day, I certainly make wrong ones. Hope that helps in some way.
Yes in the AM. Should have bought the dip though.
Perfect DWT day. Super easy to trade.
Post 4000 for UCO board.
That break-down to mid-$45 I mentioned last week might get hit.
Nice 'surprise' for me on that last leg. Oops. I should have rolled up to peek at larger timeframes.
Big but not 'spikey'.Run could be done for the day.Cashed a bunch.
Or sooner than I thought!
Not right now,but ready to dump again soon.
I don't think so. Refinery shutdowns mean less crude consumed. Could even be a build. This report is too soon IMO. Effects should show up next week.
Down right now.Not surprised here.I'll take movement either way. Good luck tomorrow everyone.
I'm sure it'll affect the people out there. I don't mean ever to downplay that, but I don't think it is always bad enough to really affect production and overall supply. I did give a slight bump to my call side on the morning dip, but that's about it. I was already 'insured' before I heard the news. No need for me to over-react as well.
Meh. That would be me too. I look at it mostly as a lagging indicator. But I also want to watch it for any over-reaction from producers. Might see some of that in the weeks to come.
Crazy tight for hours...
Oil Rigs:-4 to 759, US Rigs:-6 to 940
lol. Years of 'negative punishment' is another term for 'experience'. IOW, that feel is developed form the pain of all the big and little costly mistakes I've made over the years. 'Negative reinforcement' is often misused. Making money is positive reinforcement.
Every observation and prediction gives you either feedback.
I'm thinking Mon/Tues if there are any real issues with supply logistics over the weekend. Looks like a big wait-n-see consolidation as the wedgie continues to tighten.
Good time for anyone to get into some short term call positions...whatever your convictions are. A 3% spike would make me happy, anything higher would just be gravy. Still carrying a short bias on heavy spread. The wedgie gotta fail sooner or later.
Took a bit over $3 gain off the table this morning.
And good luck to all the coastal Texans! Stay safe out there!
Thanks! Yeah, twice publicly. Three times if you count the peak @9EDT before I start posting. Four times if you count just before noon EDT.
I was just looking at the WTI chart and one without any indicators at the time. Hollow candlestick format. I just watch the price action. I suppose the analysis is more psychological than technical. Maybe educated guess. Or my time machine is working again.