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If someone were to dump shares and take a tax loss it makes sense to wait until October 1 after Milestone 4 b/c the PPS will go up and then it will fall b/t October and December if there is not a regulatory/commercial agreement in place with Medtronic. Again, $1.70ish is the bottom.
Per post 129808 - THAT POSTER is EXPECTING REGULATORY SUBMITTAL FOR TITAN right after Milestone 4 so obviously that would drive PPS up. Again based off post 129808
If the floor was falling then PPS would be falling- based on pps, we r at bottom. No need to sell and buy back later bc it’s not going lower. FACT!
It makes sense.
Thanks, I AM EXPECTING REGULATORY SUBMITTAL TOO!!!!!!
So based on this post, Option 1 - and it is EXPECTED THAT TITAN WILL HAVE REGULATORY SUBMITTAL right after Milestone 4!
Thanks for confirmation!
I've said this for years, the first whiff I get of Titan going it alone, I unload my entire position - I haven't sold anything to date and have ZERO indication they are going it alone. In fact, hearing more chatter from ISRG about Medtronic and Titan forging a deeper partnership/relationship. The concern level has ramped up over at ISRG, SIGNIFICANTLY!
Milestone 4 is due at the end of Sept. So when Milestone 4 is hit and Titan announces it and receives payment what are the next options.
Option 1. Titan receives money, pays off loan and has a Single Port Surgical robotic platform ready for Regulatory Submittal. They decide to go it alone.
Option 2. Medtronic buys out Titan immediately for one lump sum of money (its pretty clear that the BO range projections on this board have an extremely wide spread)
Option 3. Titan and Medtronic enter into another agreement (similar to Mazor deal) where Medtronic takes an equity stake and helps Titan thru human clinical trials, regulatory process and commercialization process.
Option 4. Another player comes in and makes an extremely attractive offer to buy ENOS, Entire Intellectual property portfolio and the world class R&D team.
Option 5. Titan decides to license IP and know how (consistent revenue stream)to other companies eager to get into Surgical robotic space, continues to crank out patents and still has a Single Port Surgical Robotic platform.
When prototype is delivered, I lean towards Option 3, it makes the most sense from both parties and the most logical. It will allow Medtronic to make the ultimate commitment to surgical robotics and Titan and deliver surgical robotic platforms that will be an alternative to ISRG and quite frankly a better platform. Also, acquiring the Single Port platform prevents another company from coming in and acquiring it(some argue the Medtronic can just develop a single port in house but Titan would be a prime competitor with no patent infringement - quite attractive to a JNJ, ISRG, CMR, Stryker, Olympus, etc).
Option 3 would allow Medtronic to collect all the clinical data and studies from ENOS to help in their upstream and downstream marketing. It would also allow them to get in early to help set up manufacturing, supply chain and logistics so when roll out happens its seamless (unlike the Mazor acquistion).
Option 3 would help them tremendously with the HUGO rollout b/c as they speak to CEOs and CIOs of health system, its quite an attractive package to talk about multi-port, single port and endoluminal ALONG with all of Medtronic's other business with their system/facilities.
Option 3 would allow them to move with speed thru the clinical and regulatory process b/c they would be sponsoring Titan and allow Titan to run point with assistance from Medtronic (especially b/c Medtronic will be coming off the heels of their own clinical trials across facilities where the road has been paved). Hospitals and clinicians would be familiar with the shared IP in the systems (i.e hand pieces, ergonomic physician station, etc)
I am hoping for Option 3 b/c I believe as a shareholder that is the best option for my return on investment. Options 1, 2, 4 and 5 all will lead to appreciation but maybe not at the rate of return Option 3 would.
It will be fascinating to say the least and I know every single person who comes on this board is wondering what Option will it be.
TMDI - up today on news of new CFO
$1.20 - Weeeeelllllll……….. we’re waiting!
Supposedly some on this board think that the news of a new CFO is the death knell for Titan…oh, then where is the free fall in PPS? Not going to happen bc this is the bottom. No reason to sell and buy back later at a lower price bc it ain’t happening.
shorts are a bunch of helens…oh vey.
Thanks Mustang, its worth a repost
Third attempt at this one:
Hey Rocko, I liked your write-up this morning with the 5 possibilities listed and I agree that they are probably the 5 most likely scenarios. Possibly worth a sticky on that post!
As for the probability of each, I do see things a little differently than you. I think Option 3, equity stake, is a lower probability because Medtronic didn't like the way it worked out with Mazor and they have probably learned from that mistake.
Option 1, Titan going it alone is also highly unlikely in my opinion; they honestly don't have the resources to deploy such a complex product into a highly competitive market without bigger backing. The closest to this option would be if they sign a marketing agreement with another Big to utilize someones existing sales force and contact base, but another Big who would be interested would just buy them out, so I am doubtful on Option 1 as written.
Option 5, just keep licensing patents, I think is also unlikely because they would quickly alienate the entire market - every new licensee would be a poke in the eye to prior licensees and the market would rather abandon them completely than risk competing with 5 other companies all using the same tech.
Option 4, another Big steps in with an offer, is a real possibility and my pick for second most likely option. I might have ranked it lower if I hadn't been told by Titan Mgt that the Medtronic rep has been specifically excluded from some board meetings; I think other suitors are most likely the topic of discussion at those boar meetings and hence I believe this one is firmly on the table.
Absolute greatest likelihood in my mind is Option 2, immediate buyout by Medtronic or at least an attempt by them to do so. Titan may already have other contacts in place who are working on counter-bids; some offers have non-compete clauses stating Titan cannot then shop for other offers, but as I stated, my belief is that the shopping started a while back. Either way, MDT won't want to drag their feet on a deal because of how it worked out with Mazor. And another hitch with Mazor was system reliability - so there's a good chance that the handshake deal with Mr. Martha includes the additional tweaks Titan has been doing over the past year, possibly at Geoff's request, so they know that what they are getting will hit the ground running - since everyone wants an explanation of why we still seem to be refining our platform. I'd go so far as to guess that the whole Enos/endoluminal capability was driven by this handshake deal, maybe even before Mr. Martha took the helm. The $18M milestone/raise might have been to meet funding requirements for this MDT-requested development effort (explaining why Titan's raise was one of the Medtronic milestones). That money funded development to meet MDT's development vision but wasn't provided by Medtronic directly because... Mazor all over again if they did. And conveniently, it was all pre-arranged so it could be announced a day or two later! When is the last time before that Titan announced a raise and then wrapped it up that fast? Never. It was a done deal.
All my opinion, of course, as always... but yeah, I'm sticking with Option 2 and now you all know why. And if my reasoning here also answers some questions or doubts that were lingering in the back of your mind... you're welcome!
Bernholtz is trying to unload TTLLF warrants - I wouldn’t buy bc I might get ensnarled in some of his illegal activity
http://www.westlawecarswell.com/oscb/on4229/4229-final.pdf
Check out pages 39-44
Looks like if you are looking to buy TTLLF warrants, good ole Marty Bernholtz is looking to sell them to you since he owns a bunch.
http://www.westlawecarswell.com/oscb/on4229/4229-final.pdf
Pages 39-44
Based on Martin Bernholtz trying to unload TTLLF warrants alone would be a huge red flag for me and should be for any investor thinking to buy them. This was the same guy that was busted for Insider Trading and now he wants to unload his TTLLF warrants - very sketchy
Doing some research on Titan Warrants and found this:
http://www.westlawecarswell.com/oscb/on4229/4229-final.pdf
Have to go to pages 39-44 to see who owns a ton of these TTLLF warrants - very interesting!!!!
Vicarious IP counsel, I was close to them having one 30 years old. I guess when u crank out 4 patents that excludes you from the elite level like Titans jasminder brar
https://www.vanguardlawmag.com/case-studies/william-morris-vicarious-surgical/
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200625005386/en/Titan-Medical-Promotes-Globally-Recognized-Intellectual-Property-Strategy-Leader-to-Vice-President-and-General-Counsel
Based off comparing these two individuals and their respective companies IP - it’s clear that Titan and jasminder are head and shoulders above vicarious
So u agree that they have 4 patents bc 4 x $275 is $1.1.
A vicarious valuation of $1.1b means that Titan value to acquirer will be north of $5B
Article highlighting the CRITICAL NATURE OF IP PROTECTION.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.med-technews.com/api/amp/medtech-insights/assessing-patents-in-surgical-robotics/
Of course some don’t know that bc they believe IREP is being utilized in ENOS. FYI for board - IT ISNT BC IT WAS UNPATENTABLE!
IP is the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT COMPONENT for a surgical robotic company to have. Example ISRG! If a company doesn’t have an extensive patent portfolio (like Titan) and don’t have protection on that IP, then they have nothing.
Just bc billionaire backers and companies like bear stearns and Lehman bros back them doesn’t mean squat. And I find it funny how gates throws $250k at D8 holdings and they use his name like he’s intimately involved. 100% sure that gates didn’t even know he invested pennies for him into vicarious
There is ten years of work, by 2031 they will have 8 patents.
Also, they received fda breakthrough designation like 4 years ago- what are they doing? We know they aren’t developing anything, haven’t developed any new IP.
VICARIOUS IS A SOFTWARE COMPANY. IT IS NOT A SURGICAL ROBOTIC COMPANY. CANT BE WO IP protection.
Here are all of vicarious patents - don’t even need to scroll down
https://patents.justia.com/assignee/vicarious-surgical-inc
But U buy into the vicarious hype -LMAO.
they are 8 years away at a minimum. They have 4 patents and an unsustainable overhead - they are VERB 2.0
I'm in the $4-6B camp so I feel that I can answer. IMO, I believe that upon completion of Milestone 4, Medtronic and Titan will enter into another agreement around Regulatory submittal and Commercialization, involving equity stake in Q4 2021 - Q1 2022.
Weeeeellllll.........we're waiting!
For your answer and for $1.18
Verb Surgical got more money from Google and JNJ and failed, vicarious got peanuts compared to Verb Surgical - I predict failure but we have 8 years to find out what happens with the outdated Vicarious Surgical. I'm willing to bet that no one on this board having followed this space will put a dime into RBOT. I wouldn't touch it with 25 cents, not even worth that to me.
Verb thought software was more important and they are dead. And Yes, I bought into the hype but not an idiot to follow failure. Software is a dime a dozen, there is not value in software, there is value in data and but not software (that was 20 years ago)
Again and very simply put:
Is PPS going to $1.18 or should I buy warrants with a strike price of $16?
Also, cost average is below $1.70.
So u tell ur uncle that it will go to $1.18 but then tell him to buy $16 strike price warrants? Which is it…..
Well I am not selling or buying warrants. Who are you trying to get to buy ur warrants? The newbies right, the ones with the cost average below a dollar. There is now way you think a long will sell shares and. Buy warrants at this point…do you?
Ah, going for the sucker…. Well who is the sucker that listens, we will all find out this upcoming week.
So u call for $1.18 short target YET tell others to buy warrants. Oh vey!
Only reason gates is involved in vicarious is bc they have 4 software patents AND THAT IS IT! He is a software guy after all. Certainly not an IP GUY
I am willing to bet vicarious has an IP lead counsel that is under 30 years of age. If u see that run for the hills. Much like their “director of people development “, when u see companies do that then u know they have no clue and are trying to portray “Hey look over here and don’t look for substance”. They know there is a sucker born like BD that is desperate and will try anything or someone mired in a public scandal (like divorce) that needs divergence
I wouldn't touch Vicarious until about 2027 - that is all based on my experience with Titan. I give Vicarious about a 10% chance of becoming viable BUT NOT UNTIL 2027 at a minimum and based on what my engineering experts are saying they have significant IP hurdles.
I read the read out of Vicarious Surgical Adam Sachs interview and he basically conceded they have a massive uphill battle b/c of lack of IP
So I answered your question HC777, answer me this:
Why would someone who has been buying into Titan and accumulated 10,000 shares of Titan at a cost average of 55 cents want to sell at $1.70 for a Tax loss (which is not even possible b/c they have a profit)?
You are appealing to the new investors correct? No way any long is going to dump shares at this point with Milestone 4 being so close. All new investors will have a cost average well below $1. So who do you want to buy warrants? Me, heck no I am not going to dump shares and buy warrants.
Bill gates is synonymous with healthcare and surgical robotics. Guy knows as much about surgical robotics as funnycomb777 (which based on his post is absolutely nothing).
Why would anyone sell? I am not selling and don’t need to take a tax loss and miss out on millions in return.
Real simple concept. A person sold 10000 shares at 25 cents for tax loss - try recd 2500 shares for that sell. The price shot up to $1.70 and they bought and now ONLY OWN 1,400 shares. They lost over $15k in profit.
I am not going to touch those TTLLF warrants. I will go back to my post on pps, it will be $1.70 to $2 thru end of July and move up bt $2-3 by early sept with it going to $4 by October right before milestone 4 achievement.
That is what I believe will happen so why would I buy ttllf warrants w a strike price of $16. It would go against what I believe will transpire over next 2 months.
B/c I don't need to hedge my position, I am not short all the way at $1.20, b/c I believe that Medtronic will continue the partnership with Titan, b/c I believe that ENOS will be the Single Port to Medtronic's Multi-port and endoluminal platform, b/c I would never be dumb enough to take a non-shareholders advice who's main reason for being here is to see Titan fail, b/c I'd be the biggest assclown in the world (title currently held by you and IREP19) to sell TMDI stock when we are under a couple of months from Milestone 4, b/c I believe that Titan has the best Single Port technology on the planet.
I can go on busting you up all day long but I'm making the turn at Shinnecock and have to finish up the back nine.
How about this, I will buy TTLLF if you can deliver on your $1.20. To the board, when Funnycomb120 delivers on his $1.20 price target, then maybe you can think he knows what he is talking about but until then just hold tight and trust your own advice and due diligence and not the advice of someone with a massive short position at $1.20
$1.20. Weeeeeellllllllll…….. we’re waiting!
Also vicarious currently has lawsuits filed against them. They will never make it to market, vicarious infringes on so many of Titan and ISRG single port IP.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/shareholder-alert-monteverde--associates-pc-announces-an-investigation-of-d8-holdings-corp--deh-301273325.html
10,500 sq ft per patent. Remember Medtronic passed on working w vicarious bc they have no patent protection and chose to partner and work w Titan. Medtronic decided to let a second tier company that is no threat to them like becton Dickinson have an unprotected Non IP company like vicarious.