Empire Building 101
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I made 2 purchases myself but 9nly 2.5k.
AYRWF below a dollar. After poor earnings. Another tier 1 bites the dust.
I also prefer non GAAP reports as it is a more accurate and does not include non cash charges or additions. People play these charges as reality when they are not to get a posit8ve or negative slant to influence pps. Just my opinion.
Can't say I agree with that although margins are important. As interest is included with EBITDA and needs to play a huge part of the equation. While positive cash flow is after all bills are included. Derivatives is another thing I totally ignore as they are non-cash additions and deletions to earnings. Yes margins are very important they are maintained or increasing yet imo only tell a partial story.
For me positive cash is the metric I rely on most. Margins have virtually when down or will be down across the board when companies report. Increased sales can help considerably when prices on product are down as they currently are. Derivatives play very little to the end game.
Agree with everything you said. Waiting patiently for earnings. Still holding. However the drop we have seen doesn't appear to be ending anytime soon.
Opps respoce to Doc.
Agree especially for our size.
Pear moved to New position in Jan. with company. Did he totally leave? Certainly had the credentials.
Was this at the close yesterday? If not it could be much more as the sellers were relentless yesterday.
Have you ever looked from month to month on total overall sales and Greenleaf. We did $11.5 first 3 months of legalization. Then Q3 we did $12.2 Mil. Q4 from adding up the 3 months we are looking for around $11.5 For Jan.& Feb. less than $7 Mil. This is a little concerning to me as we appear to be losing market share. With $43Mil + for Dec. we were a tad under $4 Mil. with the highest record month.
Any idea why?
Considering it was a 28 day month vrs Dec. was 31 day very good month. Hope we are gaining market share.
I started buying today and would agree most have bottomed especially tier 1. With that said their appears to be a shark lurking here with huge bids coming in lately. Now let's hope for a decent report on NM monthly sales. GLTA
I thought MRMD had a decent qt. despite the problems. Announced 4 more dispensaries this year. They have a very calculated methodical approach. Calling foe $150Mil in sales for 2023 while SHWZ analyst is calling for 189Mil for 2023. Very similar I just like SHWZ growth potential better. Plus MRMD already over 325 Mil. O/S. However, MRMD really doesn't look bad considering they once again are cash flow positive .
However, if Dye decided to remove another 1-2 million shares from the float that would help. Because of the E.R. it's not even possible until after earnings I think.
So down we go. How far is anyone's guess. Looking back with all the shares Dye bought end of Nov. Obviously he thought SAFE would pass
Waiting for check to clear. Certainly very little interest. Doubt earnings report helps. I believe our day is coming probably early next year. Lots of time to accumulate my goal of 150k. Are you still buying?
Been searching this afternoon for alittle diversification within the sector today. I have stated before this is my only holding in this sector. After 3 hours of looking very hard to justfy another holding I really could not find anything. While MRMD surely looked worthy Im going to pass as the growth potential is not what I believe SHWZ will show. Deciding factor was management and its expertise throughout. Plus the fact that Dye grew Albertsons rapidly with low margin business. Only buying proftiible stores while adding new openings on the cheap in N.M. Agree with another poster that a new state doesnt appear on the near term which I thought would happen. With that said I do understand the synergies created with current strategy. With that said my taxes and quarterlies are paid and it is time to start adding in a much bigger way! IMO, the stock price isnt going to do much in the short term but l-term 1 year from now the wheat from the chaff will be seperated and SHWZ should become the winner we all expected. FWIW, I do not trade but go for 1+ year and get tax advantages. However, things do change!
PS I also believe a loss q4 as Doc mentioned.
As the month comes to an end don't forget when N.M. reports its only a 28 day month.
Nice that came out of no where. Plus it is already opening.
On the filing this says it was an indirect purchase. It could have been a perk given such as a warrant or an option to purchase by a given date. Obviously it was not an open market purchase.
Are you expecting positive cash flow?
Looks like he already did!
PS now a positive earnings preview would change things.
Was that end of Q3?
A little confusing. Especially the amount as it is exactly the same amount in the announced recent 8k. Could someone explain this for me? Thx.
As management is well connected I would think that the state wi)l in the very near future aggressively enforce laws for the illicit market. This having a huge impact for the state.
Cant wait for the financials. Very interested on cash on hand and cash flow. For now it appears we are going to continue adding1 and 2 dispensariesat a time. With the news from CURLF it may be getting harder to find profitable ones that meet Dye's criteria.
https://www.abqjournal.com/2527372/cannabis-licenses-surpass-1000-in-new-mexico.html
Read the whole article. Talks about lots of failing dispensaries due to over saturation.
Total sales were $352 Mil. in 2022. I'm assuming you were talking recreational sales only whereas this is total sales.
My belief is your $3.5Mil factored in per month will be very conservative. I believe Doc was calling for $50Mil for the year which could be high but I believe much closer to the mark. I believe the expectation was to add another 6-7 dispensaries in N.M. this year. As far as sales for the year 8 believe the next few months will be much more reflective of the sales for the year. Of course IMO.
There is only so much market there. The under capitalized will probably not last long. IMO, the amount of new dispensaries growth will stabilize as like in Co. the weak fail. Even the MSO'S left Co. Same lesson here will repeat itself. Many saw huge profits and will be unable to compete with low prices and fierce competition and that will be where SHWZ shines. I believe the battle has just begun in N.M where as Colorado has bottomed and things will slowly recover. Of course IMO.
Exactly.
No biggie. We will continue to aggressively grow under the radar.
Totally very well thought out responce IPS. I agree with everything. In the scheme of things it really doesn't matter atoll. As far as overpaying for StarBuds at the time. However, the growth and expertise it brought at that time has certainly played a huge impact to where we are today.
Even as smart as JD is he knew that groceries to cannibus would be a challenge and as admired as StarBuds was/is the knowledge they brought can not be measured purely in dollars and cent.
Some states are now dealing with 280 screw job and going around these not allowed write-offs. Despite a divided Congress I believe a path forward is forthcoming.
My thoughts. Many companies within the sector are writing off goodwill. SHWZ has lots of goodwill on the books and with a new CFO what better time than year end to clean up the books and balance sheet. Obviously at the beginning it would scare off some investors and traders. However, smart money knows that would make comparisons better with less assets. Guess what I'm thinking is a non GAAP loss for the Q. Any thoughts or comments certainly welcome.
With all the selling I hope its not an earnings leak. However, management is very tifht-lipped.
Wow is for sure. Is TCNNF next?
Changes a lot for SHWZ. Less competition and more opportunities especially in Co. Changes my view somewhat on another state for the immediate future
Obviously CO. are listening about illicit market as revenues have dropped precipitously in the last year and have impacted many projects. I believe a vigorous approach will be announced soon. In reality it is tax evasion
Dont pay a lot of attention to those estimates.
Q4 estimates are 41 Mil. and a loss of .03 from Yahoo. I believe it was you damAcon1 who has an estimate of $162Mil for the year. With a 119 mil for 9 months that would be approximately $43 Mil for Q4. Tend to agree you are spot on with revenues. I believe N.M. is going to be possibly the best acquisition to date. Adding dispensaries near border of Texas has to be very good for SHWZ bottom line I would think.
Lightshade? Love this increase in volume. Especially above $1.50
Getting a little action now. 43K traded in a little more than an hour. Bid 1.56 ask 1.57
Would love to be the the birdie listening. Something is certainly cooking
PS Certainly more than a 1-2 dispensary acquisition IMO. Now 50k and $1.60
Management with the depth and expertise and Dye's own expectations let alone his own investments would require a huge premium which doesn't seem plausible at this time.
While I believe something very big is happening I would rather see them go the route you mentioned doing everything with cash and a solid balance sheet. However, I trust they know a heck of a lot more and have a whole more to lose than any of us.
Made no sense since that was from 2021 and I thought it was off topic. Guess not our new finance guy replacing Nancy. Looks like the team is now complete! Let the acquisitions be announced soon. Wow 15 years at whole foods. Quite impressive.