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Spread between bid/ask getting worse by day. This is a wound up catapult that can set off anytime. You do not want to be short this, not much to gain, but a lot to lose.
No, best best case scenario in near future is $5-10m...at the same time since its a startup you need to use PE of 100-200...minimum. It can be as high as 500 -1000 initially depending in growth potential. Remember, pe can be 500, buy next quarter if they double revenues and earnings all of a sudden pe gets cut in half. Point is that investors will pay a huge premium for growth. My biggest concern is that they get a contract and how much.
Look at the following companies and their PE and their growth potential isn't as high as Sigmas.
3d systms 154x earnings
Autodesk 72x
Arcam 279x
Materialise 131x
I can go on and on.
If it dips into 10s not sure much changes like the 11s. However if it breaks 10, then you will easily see 8 or maybe even 6.
Saying that, don't see it going below 10 because most new investors biught the 10-13 range, and the rest are long term holders. Really bad news needs to hit for it to break 10s. This ofcourse is my opinion.
Wait arent i short on this stock...I'm in trouble.
And I'm I'm agreement with that and would be happy if we actually hit 0.75 in the next year or so. Slow and steady wins the race.
Drifting I think we are on the same page. I believe you like the story and potential of Sigma and thus placed your bets based on the fact that these risks are small relative to the potential payout. That's exactly how I view it.
That we are in agreement, 100%. Sigma will get there 2-5 years from now. Anything can happen if course, but those that think we will get to $2 before that time frame are reaching.
Drifting you can't multiply the valuation of a company by share price. Valuation is share price x sales..
And that I agree with drifting...my point was simply we are not getting to $2 a share from 0.11 anytime soon. Somwnknw here actually believes we will be worth 1.5bil by Xmas? Some here do.
Drifting, I was trying to come up with a evaluation. I was simply saying that we shouldn't be expecting up listing anytime soon.
The poster I responded to simply said we just need to get to $2 a share so we can up list. I simply said to get to $2 a share you need 15m in annual sales with a 100x sales multiple.
My math is 10000% correct.
15m in sales x 100 sales multiple is 1.5bil.
1.5bil divided by shares outstanding puts you around $2 a share.
Anything can happen in life, I'm just saying asking Cola about up listing is kind of silly because the company isn't ready unless something unreal happens.
975k wasn't strictly for 2 machines. We don't know even what it is for and it is "up to" 975k. So far they haven't received any of it at least not since last financials.
If they were to get that much...it is probably for all their time helping develop it and consult...not the software itself.
Who here actually thinks they will sell the software for 500k each. I don't.
You will not reach $2 anytime soon, unless Sigma announces some ridiculous contract.
You realize that $2 a share would put this company at about $1.3 billion in value.
They would have to have about $15 million in annual sales AND trade at a ridiculous 100x sales to reach $2.
We all know each software isn't going sell for $500k, maybe $100k if they are lucky. It's all speculation. Even at $100k per software...that's 150 printers to reach the $15 mil in annual sales. GE doesn't even have 150 printers.
I don't want to squash any dreams, or sound negative...but they can get there say 2-5 years from now, but expecting that anytime soon is borderline meth behavior.
Now they can still uplist and restructure outstanding shares, but we are not getting there by climbing from 0.11 anytime soon.
Just to clear things up...what I meant is that it would be neat if we did trade in a bigger exchange only so that we can trade options on this stock. Straddle being the perfect situation to make some sweet cash.
Besides that, I'm not a fan of up listing until we have solid and consistent revenue coming in. I know there are other companies out there that don't have revenue (Organovo) and are trading on a bigger exchange, but let's face it, they are a much sexier story and they feel a bit more real with 50+ employees.
No offense to Sigma, but 2-3 employees and developing a product that monitors printing isn't as sexy as potentially printing human organs.
Sigma needs to stay under the radar, until they have something solid. So that when they do up list, it will be that much sweeter. Up listing now, just to get a bump in price is fake...and won't last, and can actually make things worse.
Here is some more positives...
This stock is like a wound up catapult that can go off positively or negatively depending on major updates.
Main reason, as most of you know is that majority of the shares are held by longer term investors, lets call them the "core investors". The core investors will not sell, leaving very little on the market to play with.
This is why it is very easy to manipulate this stock, and why sometimes the spread is very wide. Very little shares traded relative to the outstanding shares. Not enough players on the market.
If we have positive news, the core investors still won't sell because they believe it will go higher, which will cause the stock to really blow up because new investors won't be able to easily find shares. If it's very negative news, and I mean commercialization won't happen anytime soon bad, or we are running out of funds to continue to operate bad , core investors will start to bail which will collapse the stock.
They should up list this stock so we can trade options. This stock is set up perfectly for a nice straddle.
If you are going to look at a small sliver of the pie yes, but we were talking about what has been happening for the past month or so, mainly since the formation of the base and support around 0.11.
The stock bottomed out around 6/16 and has formed a base since then. You can even argue that a base has been forming since 1/15 when we hit 0.10.
If you look at accumulation/distribution from either one of those points, it's relatively flat. Meaning we are just exchanging hands.
I think my ears hurt even though there was no audio.
But this is amazing news indeed, and the markets reacted in a significant way to the upgrades.
DDD - up +0.07 / 0.001%
SSYS - up 1.70 / 0.014%
XONE - down -0.66 / -2.21%
AMAVF - up +0.26% / +0.96%
That I agree with.
Two reason to short or buy. Technical or Fundamental.
in Sigma's case, shorting on Technicals makes no sense because...
a.) Near all time lows
b.) Strong support near 0.10-0.11 range, with nice base forming
c.) Very low volume compared to shares outstanding, making it harder to cover
in Sigma's case, shorting on Fundamentals can make sense if...
a.) You're betting that something better hits the market
b.) Betting that there are further delays
c.) Lack of revenue/contracts for this year or foreseeable future
In summary, you'd only short Sigma is if you don't believe their story, or Cola fails to deliver in next 3-4 months.
but even then...I wouldn't short this with a 10 foot pole. Risks significantly outweigh any benefits. I'm not shorting to try and gain a 2-3 pennies per share, when it can potentially cost me several dimes and maybe even quarters per share.
Agreed. This HAS to hold 0.10 at minimum, best scenario is that it continues to slowly climb the trend line, and closes around .115 to .120 in the next 2-3 weeks as the wedge continues to narrow. Then you will see fireworks.
Of course any major news will always trump any technical.
This is not accumulation. Consolidation?, yes, Accumulation no.
There is a huge base of investors that are holding on to their shares, because they believe the story (I included, despite that half of you think I'm short). This is the reason why volume is relatively small compared to shares outstanding.
All this is...is scared hands, those that haven't done their full DD exiting due to being inpatient or emotionally weak (can't stomach daily swings), while being replaced by newer investors who happen to stumble upon Sigma Labs.
Now the encouraging part is that for sometime this has been forming a base. The reason this is encouraging is because new people that stumbled upon the stock aren't going to sell anytime soon, because they haven't lost anything yet. At the same time, the core investors aren't selling their shares because they believe in the story.
This is consolidation my friends, not accumulation. There are many indicators such as Accumulation/Distribution, or Accum/Distr Volume Driven you can look at on your trading platform (mine is ThinkofSwim) to prove that it's far from accumulation.
And I'll confess..I been short this whole time. Shorted $50k worth at 0.02 hoping it went to 0.01...got caught, now I'm in the hook over half a million. You think we can at least get to 0.05 so I can get some back? My wife will divorce me if she found out.
Interesting point, but I take it with a very small grain of salt.
However, there were many "I think something will happen soon", but lack of "This is happening now"
But speculate away, part of the fun.
Thank you. You said it better than I did.
Daily MACD is finally starting to turn bullish...one of the only indicators that were left that was either bearish or neutral.
If or when you meet with him, can you please address some concerns that this board has.
My biggest...
Realistic commercialization timeline.
- It would be nice if they gave a milestone timeline what was accomplished (from their perspective) and what is yet left to be done and when. "We expect commercialization sometime this year" is way to vague, and something he already missed on.
Progress with key partners
- Updates on their relationships and current testing of their products with Honeywell & GE. Adurant & Materialise
I do too, 100%. I already added a couple of days ago, not much...100K shares at 0.11. Have plenty of funds to add more, and can always liquidate other positions to buy more, but absolutely no more buying until I gain more clarity, hopefully over the next couple of months.
I would never recommend a stock to anyone, not even my own mother. And nobody should either. I came across Sigma by doing research in the 3D industry, not because it was recommended to me.
But there are many out there, obviously Sigma Labs isn't the only stock out of the 8K traded securities that has a huge potential for growth.
Absolutely this is speculation. Throwing money at Sigma is not an investment, it's more of a bet.
My point is though, there are other bets and casinos to play in.
Let's pretend we knew the future, and the following events happened. Sigma Labs is delayed again, GE likes what they see, but want to do more testing and have moved on to printing nozzles anyway. Would "love" to have Sigma technology, but it isn't quite there yet for them to pull the trigger. Or awarded Sigma a 1 year contract for only 2 printers to see how it goes. Let say this happens over the next 2 years.
Most likely the stock will continue to trade right where it's at, maybe slightly lower, or slightly higher.
If I knew that, I would dump TODAY and buy something else, then come back in when it's ready. (again we are only pretending on a possible scenario)
This is why to me and some of us here communication, plan, a timeline, progress with GE, Honeywell are key. It can give us an idea where they are at. Are they simply putting together the final touches like the user manuals? or still "in development and testing".
Dead money is when you invest in something, but the stock doesn't really do what you expect it to do. You get just enough info to keep your hopes up, so you stick with it, but before you know it years go by. You didn't lose anything, you really didn't gain anything, it's just dead money. Part of the cost, is opportunity lost.
I'm not saying this will happen with Sigma, and just like you I believe in the technology they are trying to create. But for me...I have to draw the line in the sand somewhere, it's my way of holding Sigma accountable.
At the same time, I don't need commercialization by end of the year like some are seeking, but I do need a detailed timeline as to where they are with the project in the next coming years. I'll do my own estimate when commercialization will happen, rather than take the word of Cola who hasn't been very accurate.
The story with Sigma is unbelievable, nobody is disputing that. And if you have nothing better to invest in, stick with it, especially if the story hasn't changed. But for me, there are stocks I want, but holding out for Sigma. Sigma isn't the only "unbelievable" story out there.
Good luck, and I hope we all gain more clarity in next coming months.
My biggest issue is dead money. I've seen too many stocks where "disrupting technology" or a "wonder drug" is supposed to happen soon, but then ends up being 2, 4, 6, 10 years and still trying.
Sigma isn't the only stock out there, I don't want to miss growth elsewhere, while I wait for Sigma to finish their science project.
They missed their timelines before, that's fine, it happens, but I won't accept anymore delays and misses.
That's why for me, if I know as much today as I do towards the end of the year, I'll most likely reduce my position down to 100K...see what happens.
This is just my opinion of course, I see nothing wrong with waiting either.
I'll tell you one thing...if we know as much as we know today...by late November/December, meaning no contracts, no communication on timeline progression, my 525k shares will be donated to whoever wants them.
Disagree. They need to be pushed so hard that all they think about is increasing shareholder value. That is the #1 priority of any executive of a publicaly traded company. It. If they have a different priority, they should step down.
They need to have a well communicated plan and stick to it. And we as shareholders need to hold them accountable.
At least we got some news regarding progress as vague as it seems.
I would also be interested how successful their testing with GE had gone so far while printing fuel nozzles. Is P3RD doing what it's supposed to do? Or are there adjustments to be done.
Knowing where Sigma is with the process would help us estimate commercialization.
This is what a lot of us were hoping to learn in the latest 10Q.
BTW that interface is ugly, just my opinion...though data is what counts.
Not sure you can compare the two. Nothing happened with Sigma, so it held because no significant event has occurred to move it either up or down.
I guarantee, and bet my life that if Sigma came out with news like DRIO did...
Then Sigma would collapse just as fast, as would any stock.
DRIO collapsed, because it's dead.
yeah it closed green, but IMO it wasn't substantial.
Stock has been around 0.11 nearly all day. Then at the last minute, actually last 3 seconds, someone bought $1,840 dollars worth of stock at 0.115. Nothing to cling on, however still better than 0.11
Only people worried about the PPS going further down are ones that are not well capitalized and are already "all in". If the story stays the same, and you have $$$, you should be ok with this going down further.
I agree.
Daily View
RSI - bullish
Stoch - bullish
MACD - slightly bearish
4hr View
RSI - slightly bullish
Stoch - very bullish
MACD - neutral
1hr View
RSI - neutral
Stoch - bullish
MACD - bullish
if 60-75 days and no commercialization or any hint towards it, this will definitely go lower. Cola promised commercialization the "rest of the year", then it was "2nd half of the year", then it was "4th quarter".
His credibility is on the line, he needs to deliver, period.
Just giving you my opinion...don't look so discouraged.
Only way you will see 0.06 is if there are issues with the product. So you are waiting for confirmation that P3RD failed to buy? Not sure I advise that strategy.
and to add to it...when you do invest in a stock do it in phases. Up your dosage if it falls lower. Worst part of being in a stock that is falling is not being well capitalized, then you can't play defense. If you are well capitalized, then you actually want the stock to go lower assuming you still like the company.
Follow the 10%/20%/30%/40% rule. (sometimes, 20%/30%/50%) If you have $100K to invest in a stock, nibble at it with 10% and see where it goes. If it goes lower, fire 20% at it, etc. Save your last two bullets if you still believe in the company and when it really takes a nose dive. Fire them in meaningful ways. If you bought first at 0.20, don't fire the second at 0.19, that's silly and does nothing for you.
I personally have 1 bullet left, but only firing it if some of my concerns are addressed and this falls down to 0.05-0.07 range.
And that is what makes discussions valuable. Having perspectives from a programmer, scientist, banker or executive. All have different perspectives and valuable things to offer.
My career started as a finance analyst, moved to financial planning and analysis manager, then director of finance and process improvement. Now I work privately as a consultant, specifically helping startups implement proper infrastructure that can scale with their business. I've worked with 100s of executives, seen countless of management styles, and as a result I know a good one when I see one. So my concerns came from my perspective, businesses side of things. That's all I can offer, can't help on product side of things because I'm not a scientist. But I find info by you guys extremely valuable.
Good discussion boards go back and forth discussing positives and negatives. What I grow tired of is the fact that Sigma can do no wrong in the eyes of 99% of us here.
I'll post my concerns again, last time it got deleted cause I think I used a name reference so I'll clean it up to make sure I didn't violate posting rules. Let's start there and see if we can get some good dialogue going.