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Do you even know what "mobilization" means? I'm not trying to be insulting. It's just that 50% of the $30M well cost is building roads and supporting infrastructure to even START turning the bit.
Know this, the rig is onsite because the roads have been built to get it there. The wells will be drilled, and it is HIGHLY likely that the first well is already underway.
The only person that can explains our CEO's silence is Ntephe, and he is in hiding, for whatever reason.
This is why management bought so many shares:
"Management believes that the Company’s current operating strategy will provide the opportunity for the Company to continue as a going concern"
"Management does believe it has created and is executing on a viable plan that has the capability of eliminating the threat to continuation of our business."
Farmout of EEZ is coming... soon. IMO.
1.) The company has told you in their filing...
the options are...
- further farmout of the Kenya block
- farmout of a portion of Chad
- farmout of a portion of the STP-EEZ block
- cash infusion from the oft mentioned "strategic investor"
Continuing with convertible debt is simply not an option anymore. I think you know that, but like some rabid animal you take pleasure in creating as much pain in others as you can. I don't get that. It's really sad, IMO.
2.) IMO, once the leftover convertible debt is converted and sold, somewhere around 34-35M shares will be outstanding. I expect oil will be found in this well and I believe that this company, which has NEVER hyped itself, is significantly understating the 20% chance of success. The CEO, CFO, and Offor poured roughly $550,000 into this stock over the last year and a half. IMO, finding oil is almost assured with this well, and that is why they bought as much as they did.
We'll know in 60-90 days. Continue your sick pleasure of hurting strangers until then.
Probably ought to wait until after they actually steal the assets before you call them crooks. The liability you face is huge!
IMO, NGAR was set up for, and will be funded by, Ntephe and Odobulu's profits from the sale of ERHC Energy. As soon as the logs show traces of oil during this drill this company will be sold.
If you're in, you win... there's no other way to recover from the past.
Strategic investor unveiled, IMO.
I was just poking you in the chest, I hope you caught that.
OK, middy, why post only this...
"substantial doubt that the company can continue as a going concern"
when after that they said this?
"Management believes that the Company’s current operating strategy will provide the opportunity for the Company to continue as a going concern"
Given the hundreds of thousands of dollars OF THEIR PERSONAL MONEY that they have invested over the last year and a half, uniquely parallel to the convertible debt spiral, I have to conclude that the latter statement carries far more weight than the former.
I and everyone here know you will disagree.
The question everyone needs to consider...
Is it you "transferring" your shares to them or someone else?
It "could" be toxic debt shares being unloaded just as much as it could be a fed up long bailing.
When it comes to message boards the positive posters are sellers and the negative posters are buyers.
Or not.
Personal character and values, if any exist anymore, do play a role.
2M shares traded today.
Split adjusted, that's TWO HUNDRED MILLION shares.
Back the truck up even further to before the convertible debt disaster was started (divide by 4) and today was the equivalent of a 50M share day back when we bought our shares.
A **lot** of equity changed hands (over 3%) with **very** minimum dollars spent (~$33K).
News soon, IMO.
Good lord, just POST it already...
The facts were spun to the negative like they always are. Here is every reference to "going concern" in the filing. Nowhere did they say "distinct possibility" whish is what was posted here. What was said, twice, is that management believes that their plan will KEEP ERHC as a going concern. Kinda the opposite of what was posted.
What is sad is that ANY of the people BICKERING about this could have chose to POST this instead of BICKERING.
"Going Concern
The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared on the basis that the Company will continue as a going concern which contemplates the realization of assets and the satisfaction of liabilities in the ordinary and usual course of business. As of December 31, 2015, the Company has a working capital deficit and negative cash flows from operating activities. This condition raises substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern. The ability of the Company to continue as a going concern is dependent on raising additional capital to fund ongoing exploration projects and ultimately on attaining future profitable operations. The Company is continuing with its plan to further seek new opportunity for farm-out its assets in Kenya, Chad and the Sao Tomé and Príncipe Exclusive Economic Zone. Management believes that the Company’s current operating strategy will provide the opportunity for the Company to continue as a going concern as long as the Company continues to obtain additional financing; however there is no assurance that this will occur. The financial statements do not include any adjustments that might result from the outcome of this uncertainty."
"Additionally, the Company’s financial statements as of December 31, 2015 have been prepared on the assumption that the Company will continue as a going concern."
"GOING CONCERN
Our financial statements contain additional note disclosures describing the circumstances that lead to this disclosure Their assessment is a result of our recurring operating losses and the continuing and immediate need for capital raising to fund operations. Management does believe it has created and is executing on a viable plan that has the capability of eliminating the threat to continuation of our business. This plan involves hiring outside professional services and continuing to seek for opportunity to farm-out its assets in Kenya, Chad and the Sao Tomé and Príncipe Exclusive Economic Zone. We will have to raise additional funds to continue our operations and, while we have been successful in doing so in the past, there can be no assurance that we will be able to do so in the future. Our continuation as a going concern is dependent upon our ability to obtain necessary additional funds to continue operations and the attainment of profitable operations."
Tullow is either very good at keeping information quiet or the reporter in the March 11th article is very bad at investigating.
I hope your right, and think you are. The only question is will they issue more convertible debt to fund drilling and pay the IRS?
If they do we are screwed.
I'm not sure what you are talking about. Roughly $750 worth of shares were bought today.
You make it sound like a corporate takeover or something.
Seven hundred and fifty dollars. It's embarrassing.
Your LOL's are a joke. Nothing about this is funny. I'm glad you're amused though.
The latest PR announcing that the rig was mobilizing to the drill site is just 27 days old. I think it's fair to say drilling will occur, and soon.
I gave you the numbers for an offer to buy an oil company for $7 PER BARREL OF PROVEN. That offer was REJECTED because it was too low.
Say whatever you want, everyone see's through you.
Looky here cowboy, split adjusted this pig is trading at 5/100ths of a penny. FIVE ONE HUNDRETHS OF A PENNY!
A very good part of that is due to Peter Ntephe's incompetence.
Didn't you see the roadblock to drilling that Peter Ntephe, CEO of ERHC Energy, never disclosed? You can say "can we drill already?" all you want. The locals are saying NO.
There is nothing, not one thing, more material than getting that bit turning... NOTHING! Yet the self serving sociopath playing CEO doesn't feel we deserve to know that drilling may not occur.
There are absolutely NO circumstances that Peter Ntephe should not be fired for this non-disclosure. Anyone owning shares could lose EVERYTHING and he feels it's not worth mentioning?
Pathetic.
It's just another aw-sheet in a long, very long, list of aw-sheets that Peter Notgonnasayanything has failed to address.
He may understand African politics, but he is a joke in the U.S. which is where this company is headquartered and traded.
A CEO that was competent in the U.S. markets expectations would never had to go into the toxic debt spiral that Peter Ntephe dragged us into. He may very well be a genius, but in the U.S. market where our shares trade he is an incompetent fool.
Scorn the numbers, real numbers, all you want.
Apache Oil recently rejected a $20B offer by Anadarko. Apache has 2.9B in proven BOE equivalents.
That's $7 per barrel in a very down market, as you keep repeating, and that offer was rejected.
If ERHC's Kenya Tarach-1 well hits oil, ERHC is worth at LEAST $10 per share. If the follow-on well hits oil $30+ is in play.
Talk me down all you want... those numbers are real.
Africa Oil's valuation is just as out of whack with reality as ERHC's.
It's not a good metric, unless you want to undermine ERHC of course.
That deafening silence is only strengthening a case against Ntephe if he sells this company out from under us. It's incomprehensible to me that shareholders can learn of a political impediment to drilling through third parties and he incompetently says nothing to assure us that everything is on schedule.
Peter Ntephe's most recent actions and inactions seem designed to wipe out the market cap of ERHC Energy.
That is illegal.
"Were here, its drilling time!!" Is it?
Not a word from our Chief Executive Obfuscator. Peter Ntephe is a joke in the role of CEO.
Quote:
Turkana Guardian
March 2 at 3:52am ·
Turkana county governor Josphat Nanok has directed Turkana West
Sub-county political leadership to reconstitute the Community Liaison Committee working with CEPSA oil company within 12 days or face disbandment. The political interference in the running of Community Liaison Committee has been the major cause of protests in the recent days and that has paralyzed the operations of the investor company.
https://www.facebook.com/Turkanaguardian/
Your are right snayeman and Tamtam is very wrong. This is absolutely critical and Ntephe, as usual, is silent about it. Clarification is NOT optional, it is a critically MATERIAL EVENT and mandatory that it is disclosed.
Tamtam seems to imply that Mr. Marriot is onsite and the bit is at 46m depth.
If true it is another pathetic failure of Ntephe to keep us informed. If not, it is another pathetic lie on I-hub.
Without clarification I don't see how the post can be seen as anything but pathetic.
Peter Ntephe is a pathetic excuse for a CEO. You are right, "the least Peter could do is clarify this issue"
Sadly, Ntephe disagrees. He believes the least he can do is absolutely *nothing* to clarify the issue. The man exerts EFFORT to insure the next round of conversions is at a lower price.
I'm not going to say he should be fired, that's blatantly obvious. He should be tried and convicted for his gross negligence.
The beauty is that my opinion doesn't matter and neither does yours. If they find oil I believe the company will be bought.
Current unrisked estimates are 662M barrels for the block. If that pans out to 188M barrels ERHC's share will be 66M barrels. I used $15 per barrel to come up with a market cap of $1B, or $30 per share.
In 2009 Addax had 450M barrels of proven and was bought for $10B... that's $22 per barrel middy. It's public record and indisputable.
Proving 30% of the unrisked estimates may be difficult, but if they can then a $30 per share buyout is very much within reach.
AKPO was valued at $7 per barrel. That oil was "in the ground" *AND* under a mile of water. $15 per barrel onshore is a fair value.
It doesn't matter what Africa Oil is worth, as you can see with ERHE, the market can get valuation very, very wrong.
Using a conservative $15 per barrel ERHC would need it's share of Kenya to be 66M barrels to justify a market cap of $1B ($30 per share). From ERHC's most recent PR:
"Mean unrisked prospective resources of all prospects and leads in Block 11A totals 662 million barrels."
For ERHC to get to 66M barrels that 662M unrisked estimate needs to pan out to 188M barrels proven. **IF** (see that word everyone?) this/these well/wells find oil, the entire block is significantly derisked and getting to those numbers is likely.
Talk of Chad, the EEZ, and the JDZ is mental masturbation, if Kenya has oil this company goes buy-buy (punny spelling intentional)
mhslowly, that number isn't really out of the question. Split adjusted that's $3.17 per share with 3B shares out. Take away the dilution of the last 18 months and it's $12.68 with 750M shares out. Had the JDZ panned out my number was $14 with 750M shares, pretty much in the same ballpark. Bottom line, proven reserves are discovered with so few shares outstanding this thing will be a rocket.
Personally I think if they sniff oil in this/these Kenya well/wells ERHC will be bought out immediately. It's my opinion that the New Global shell was set up as a destination for Ntephe and Odobulu's (and Offor's?) profits from the sale of ERHC Energy. If I'm right ERHE will go from a nickel to the buyout price ($10, $20, $30?) overnight. If you're in, you win.
You haven't known what's up once in those 14 years. Why's it bugging you now???
I'd take that article with a grain of salt for now. Everything about the pipeline project has changed time and again. A decent discovery in 11A and the project will change yet again.
LOL!
Take it out, it hurts!
"Are you aware that the Tax Court decision came down in February of 2015?"
I was not.
"ERHC waited a year to even tell us about it."
So it appears that it was an intentional move by the management with a fiduciary duty to work in the best interest of all shareholders to release this $4.7M negative swing on the books just days before drilling.
There aren't many reasons that they would do this and only one that would be in our best interest.
This mess is going to end up in court.
They must be watching the fuse burn.
A good read, off topic, but very relevant and non-partisan:
"Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them.
Have you ever wondered why, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are against deficits, we have deficits? Have you ever wondered why, if all the politicians are against inflation and high taxes, we have inflation and high taxes?
You and I don't propose a federal budget. The president does. You and I don't have the Constitutional authority to vote on appropriations. The House of Representatives does. You and I don't write the tax code. Congress does. You and I don't set fiscal policy. Congress does. You and I don't control monetary policy. The Federal Reserve Bank does.
One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one president and nine Supreme Court justices - 545 human beings out of the 319 million - are directly, legally, morally and individually responsible for the domestic problems that plague this country.
I excluded the members of the Federal Reserve Board because that problem was created by the Congress. In 1913, Congress delegated its Constitutional duty to provide a sound currency to a federally chartered but private central bank.
I excluded all of the special interests and lobbyists for a sound reason. They have no legal authority. They have no ability to coerce a senator, a congressman or a president to do one single thing. I don't care if they offer a politician $1 million dollars in cash. The politician has the power to accept or reject it. No matter what the lobbyist promises, it is the legislator's responsibility to determine how he votes.
A CONFIDENCE CONSPIRACY
Don't you see how the con game that is played on the people by the politicians? Those 545 human beings spend much of their energy convincing you that what they did is not their fault. They cooperate in this common con regardless of party.
What separates a politician from a normal human being is an excessive amount of gall. No normal human being would have the gall of a once Speaker of the House who stood up and criticized the President for creating deficits. The president can only propose a budget. He cannot force the Congress to accept it. The Constitution, which is the supreme law of the land, gives sole responsibility to the House of Representatives for originating appropriations and taxes. The speaker of the House is the leader of the majority party. He and his fellow Senators, not the president, can approve any budget they want. If the president vetos it, they can pass it over his veto.
REPLACE THE SCOUNDRELS
It seems inconceivable to me that a nation of 319 million cannot replace 545 people who stand convicted -- by present facts - of incompetence and irresponsibility. I can't think of a single domestic problem, from an unfair tax code to defense overruns, that is not traceable directly to those 545 people.
When you fully grasp the plain truth that 545 people exercise power of the federal government, then it must follow that what exists is what they want to exist. If the tax code is unfair, it's because they want it unfair. If the budget is in the red, it's because they want it in the red. If our Military is in the Middle East, it's because they want them in the Middle East.
There are no unsolvable government problems. Do not let these 545 people shift the blame to bureaucrats, whom they hire and whose jobs they can abolish; to lobbyists, whose gifts and advice they can reject; to regulators, to whom they give the power to regulate and from whom they can take it. Above all, do not let them con you into the belief that there are mystical forces like "the economy," "inflation" or "politics" that prevent them from doing what they take an oath to do. Those 545 people and they alone are responsible. They and they alone have the power. They and they alone should be held accountable by the people who are their bosses - the voters of the United States who are damn lucky to have the right to vote.
"
VOTE.
You don't see anything suspicious about a 2006 dispute over taxes being published and announce DAYS before the first drilling this company has done in over 5 years?
Please. It's SCREAMS of political favors being carried out by the IRS.
It's another great example showing...
why Donald Trump is winning in the polls. People are fed up with political corruption and are willing to gamble with Trump rather than nominate another corrupt "establishment" candidate. The timing of the IRS debacle is very suspect. It screams that it is politically motivated. Right before drilling.. I mean REALLY?
Thanks Strategy. I think your scenario is quite plausible. I do wonder about those shareholders who hold shares in IRA/Roth accounts. There can be very serious tax consequences for holding foreign company shares in those accounts. I certainly hope the company would be proactive in preventing harm to certain accounts.
I don't know how big of a problem it is, but I know it exists. I doubt they do.