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No, it was Fab36, but on its currently shipping 90nm, not future 65nm.
The range of improvement over no strain ranged from 40% to 50%.
DSL improvement over no strain has been claimed at 20% to 24%.
So, you get a high of 1.5/1.2 = 25% increase, and a low of 1.4/1.24 = 13%.
SiGe is supposed to deliver 15% improvement over DSL. Then there's the move to 65nm, along with the move to the K8L. Intel looks to have a competitive parts making up 15% of their lineup for about 1 quarter.
Waaaaaaah. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaah. I don't like peak scores! Waaaaaaaah.
And I think you are going to be disappointed by the frequency returns of SiGe.
Because you wish it so, or do you have any logic behind that?
Waaaaah. Waaaaaaaaaaaah.
or +1 performance bins, not >20% performance boosts
Try these:
+6% IPC Rev E --> Rev F
+10% perf/W Rev E --> Rev F
+15% clock when Rev F gets SiGe
Should be good enough to last 4-5 months until...
90nm-->65nm
K8-->K8L
With all respect to the contest, it is hardly "more objective" than any public post made here, it will be easy enough to see how these predictions compare to any made on the website, as well as to each other.
Finally, there is no way in the contest to predict only some of the items, as we have done here (only revenue and revenue guidance).
I'll put Intel at $8.9B and AMD at $1.4B, though. As for forecasts, AMD may guide flat to down, since Q2 is seasonally down. Intel will guide $8.5-8.9B.
Just to be crystal clear, you are saying for guidance:
AMD will be "flat to down" (not "slightly down")
INTC will have a midpoint of $8.7B (you are not expressing a "range of midpoints" which would be a bit of a cop-out)
I guess since you don't announce your investments like the intellectually honest people on this thread
This from Mr. "Only if I say it was an official recommendation did I actually mean it" ???
LOL!!!
Got a prediction for us on AMD's Q1 revenue and Q2 guidance? And the same for INTC?
I'll go first:
AMD: revs 1.45B, guide Q2 revs flat to up slightly Q/Q.
INTC: revs 8.8B, guide Q2 revs down to a midpoint of 8.4B.
That has generally been true in the past. :)
Brilliant. Consider all facts but the most important one: Intel says they'll be at 20% run-rate at year end.
Intel isn't exactly known for underpromising and overdelivering.
How are those INTC calls of yours doing?
The 2008 Leaps? Serving exactly as intended-- as insurance, with a reasonable shot at breakeven or better once Vista starts lifting all boats in 2007. But dead money for now, for sure.
How's your AMD investment been doing over the past month or so?
Obviously, temporarily off its highs, but still doing wonderfully, thanks! A mere glance at the chart tells the story-- AMD is in the mid-30s: That's 5-year-high territory.
I think 0 for N probably describes your investments.
- Rode Intel down, down, down from the $30s.
- Missed the opportunity to ride AMD up from the teens to the $30s.
- Missed the chance to make money on this AMD pullback from highs, despite all the big talk about puts.
I think your next move should be buying a lot of residential properties with IO loans. :)
Spoken like Paul "Always Wrong" DeMone.
"good sense" = your delusional ravings, in the face of facts from Intel.
unprecedented product competitiveness reversal of
fortune on the way.
Unfortunately met by a huge expansion in capacity by Intel's rival, and a most successful lawsuit.
INTC took too long getting competitive again. In fact, it's still some 4-5 months off.
The rant of an INTC investor worried about another MULTIYEAR LOW being set today? Just wait until next week: INTC's stinky Q2 guidance will flush its stock another couple bucks.
I don't think many fools will buy Dempsey, after Intel osbourned it, and the OEMs delayed it until June. If they really want an Intel system, they can wait 2-3 months after that, and buy a Woodcrest system.
At any rate, it's hilarious watching wbmw caution others that if they actually ask Intel the question during the CC, they might get a reaffirmation that doesn't suit his alternate reality.
Why stop at 100%? NGA for everyone! Intel will be at 200% NGA by the end of the year! wbmw told me so! He says this will help INTC stock cease its endless erosion!
The problem, however, is that you may not get the answer you want.
The problem for wbmw is, INTC would likely reaffirm the 20% number they already gave, causing a massive shockwave in his own personal reality matrix.
as a crafty dodge to the real issues I raised?
LOL.
"crafty dodge" = pointing out that Intel knows better than you
"real issues I raised" = my expressed fantasies about Intel ramping 2 TIMES faster than they said they would.
Awww, did the reality of 20% just hit you, like the market is smacking INTC stock again today? :)
I think you should listen to what Intel said, 20% run-rate at year end, rather than inventing wishful fantasies.
BTW, it is more likely about 4 months of sales at year end, not 6. Perhaps that partially explains Intel's forecast vs. your personal reality-matrix.
Who says Anand signed an NDA promising not to test any samples they might get ahold of?
Translation: Still Smarting
So where is your prediction? Worried it'll turn out like your Prescott claims? Your K8 claims? Your Montecito claims?
LOL!!!
And you need to start thinking temporally.
The person with the time problem would seem to be you:
"current" != "then-current"
What if Conroe launches in 3 months? What if it ramps to 40% of sales by the end of the year?
What if money grew on trees?
Listen to what Intel is telling you. 20% by year's end.
to the point where they can compete with Intel on their current micro-architecture.
Intel's *current* offerings are crap.
P.S. It's just a matter of time now before we start hearing "wait for K8L".
Well, considering you've been saying "just wait for Conroe" for months now, and it isn't even going to arrive for another 4-5 months...and will only be at a 20% run-rate exiting 2006...
is it really so terrible to talk about a part that might nullify all of Conroe's advantages within 5-6 months of Conroe's launch?
p.s. You ever get around to buying those AMD puts, or was that just all talk? You've got 2 trading days before AMD earnings... why not step up to the plate and buy some AMD puts?
Where's your prediction?
Or are you still smarting from the recent smack-down Linus gave you?
Anand suggests this might benefit the performance by ~2% overall.
No. He suggests using decent memory will give "a few percent" increase. I think he's low. But he is not including motherboard improvements.
Huh? It was a rev F part.
Yes, without any *further* revisions of this Rev F part.
Hmm, well for starters, the fact that the mobos and memory used were sub-optimal. That's without any Rev F revisions at all.
"Leaked out". What makes you think AMD is doing the "leaking", vs. an OEM? Oh, nothing. Thanks.
What makes you think Anand gets parts right away???
If you're right, they still won't have time for another stepping before June
The trouble with your argument is evident, if you'd only read your own post. Pay particular attention to the time between revisions received by Anand.
This seems to be the production part this time.
There's no real indication that's the case.
Cutting rates could push
gasoline prices to $4.00 a gallon.
Nah.
Presumably Intel will try to price up NGA and price down P4 stuff, but it's unclear how well that will work.
Q4 should certainly remain difficult in mobile, with Merom not launching until some time toward the end of it.
Yes, the nickname suggests he'll not hesitate to start cutting should there be any sign of weakness that might pose a risk of general deflation.
I'm sure they are sensitive to the errors made in 2000, where they went too far-- not giving enough time for hikes to sink in. This month for housing is going to mirror the stock market quake of April 2000.
Yes, but you don't think what is the case? You think they will not miss curent expectations for Q2 revenues? Those current estimates are, per Yahoo, at a midpoint of: $8.97B.
Given that Intel's Q1 midpoint is $8.9B, I think that outlook is unlikely to be met.
I wouldn't be surprised to see $8.8B in Q1 revs, with a midpoint of $8.4B in Q2 guidance (that's only -4.5% from Q1)
That would be over half a Billion light, based on current estimates for Q2.
That'll knock another couple bucks off the stock price.