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There is some major shuffling taking place. Large blocks in recent days but barely any movement. It looks like buying with a major attempt to mask / mute its impact on the PPS.
But after months and years of this stuff who really knows.
Yep. But those guys aren't worth arguing with. The fact that the PPS is totally under some entities control isn't in question. The question is what breaks the stalemate and will it be positive or negative.
Thanks!
The algos have been knocking down any buying interest all day. It is amazing how this PPS is under the total control of the entity that has decided they want this pinned at $3.
Blue, I hear you but many times those values include the real estate value of the facility. ADXS doesn't own anything, they lease the building and land. It's converted industrial park space. Personally I see the value as maybe $20M maximum. More like $10M to $15M.
But just my opinion. I would be happy to be proven wrong some day.
I think the accepted traditional list would include...
BLUE
ZIOP
BLCM
CLLS
Etc
Much as it made sense for CELG to buy JUNO, it would seem that ADXS would make a lot of sense for AMGN to scoop up.
An important component of volume is Pro and retail traders, both momentum and technical. Also many funds ignore stocks under $200M because they lack the liquidity needed to move in or out.
Whoever is controlling the PPS has been able to break the chart and keep the chart broken for months (years actually). This keeps or chases away millions of potential shares in trading volume.
So far today they are still suppressing and keeping the "$3 lid" on the PPS.
It's really hard for me to believe that Adage with 4M shares would allow this to continue with such impunity for so long unless they were benefiting in some way.
IMO Advaxis has always been worth at least $750M to $1B on it's worst day. The platform is worth a lot more to a company with the cash to aggressively push the trials.
One advantage companies like JUNO enjoyed was even at their bottom they were still worth $1+B in market cap. That means they enjoyed way more institutional coverage and support than ADXS can get under $200M. It's far easier to manipulate and suppress these microcap bios like ADXS. Even with great science they are guppies swimming with Great Whites.
Blue, I am on your side and have a significant interest in ADXS succeeding, but why do you appear to keep overvaluing the lab / facility? Did you just suggest it's worth $60+M? Or am I misinterpreting your remarks?
The problem is that ADXS can't afford yet another CEO that "has to go." For all the potential this company has, Lombardo and the BOD better get it right over the next 6 months. I wish I had more confidence in their abilities.
Yes, this is options expiry day, and we know the large Put position here, so it's going to be a little different.
But my point was that so far the powers controlling the PPS appear committed to keeping the PPS pinned in this area. That's been true for the last 3 months regardless of the volume on any given day.
Now I am not saying that is good or bad...merely stating that I am waiting and watching for the next phase of their plan to begin. I am obviously hoping for up, but we'll see.
That was interesting. A 435K bloc right at the close. No change in price of $2.89.
I hear you. My comment wasn't really directed at you specifically as much as a general statement. There seemed to be some extreme overreaction here yesterday about the initial announcement (via PX thru Twitter). Now that we a little more information and context the agreement to use PX seems completely logical (on a few levels) and it's obvious why ADXS would not PR something like this. No Pharma would.
Merck and Pfizer, among many others use these guys, so why is it a problem that ADXS would?
Just to be fair to ADXS, hiring PX Therapeutics to help them get their manufacturing processes up and running and optimized seems entirely logical and normal. Even the best Fortune 100 companies typically bring in consulting specialists to help them get ramped up on new systems, processes, and equipment...especially in relation to cGMP manufacturing.
Even if the primary intent is ramping up NEO manufacturing, it also seems logical in the sense that a EU based company may also pay dividends if any questions arise out of the EU submission for AXAL.
And finally it's possible they went with PX because Merck or Amgen recommended them.
Some customers of PX Therapeutics...
https://px-therapeutics.com/en/references/px-therapeutics-customers-and-references-big-pharma-biotechs-academics
I would agree that at the very least, this move is by DOC appears completely tone deaf.
After what happened at ADXS, you would have liked to have seen him try a newer and fresher approach. Instead he seems determined to draw water from the same well.
I will be annoyed as well.
I thought I understood comments reported by some posters here who (supposedly) spoke with Noelle that everything required for EMA submission was pretty much wrapped up, including the requested GOG data that was provided by GOG. It also seemed like Lombardo alluded to how close they were in his 4th Qtr comments.
IMO something this important with the clock ticking on cash reserves the entire staff works 16 hour days to put any finishing touches on the data to hit the January submission window.
The only legitimate delay in my mind is if they are in major partner discussions and know they will have a deal signed and delivered in February to go along with the official submission.
If they don't announce that until next week I am okay with that.
Longx, just curious did Ariad already have any institutions with a major stake before Sarissa or Camber bought in?
Even now Adage still retains a 10% stake in ADXS, and are registered to buy even more up to 20% (if they want). So I am wondering if other Tutes like Sarissa see ADXS as Adage's plaything and are waiting to see what Adage has planned before making any major moves? Because a 6.8% stake in ADXS is not going to be enough for Sarissa to overwhelm Adage.
Interestingly enough though, Sarissa does have a position in ADXS they established in mid-November, albeit small (339,180).
Just curious to hear your thoughts on this, or any similarities or differences between Ariad.
Couple thoughts...
- It will be interesting to see if any additional assaults are unleashed on the PPS next week. The algos this week appear to be programmed to pin this here for now.
- While I am okay with delaying any possible announcement of the EMA submission till later this month, I was really hoping to see it submitted in Jan, especially after it sounded like the requested GOG data had been added and everything was ready to go. This starts the clock officially ticking, and we should see a gradual rise in the PPS as it puts at least some pressure on the remaining short position.
Whatever "market" you are referring to, I suspect Adage and friends manage the store.
Okay. Fair enough. But following your logic then when management delivered Amgen as a partner and was back at $160M in cash, another year advanced in clinical trials, everyone believed a big AXAL partnership was next on deck, and Tute Ownership was still over 60%...how did that result in a crash back to $8 almost immediately? Almost like none of that happened?
I think I now understand why. Unfortunately with the benefit of hindsight.
What was the excuse to crash it immediately after the Amgen deal and Fidelity issue that left them with almost $160M in cash? It was at $8, went to $16, and they dragged it right back to $8. They pinned this at $8 for almost 18 months.
Why?
Because it still wasn't the time in the original plan to cover the huge short position established in summer and early fall of 2015.
What did management do so right that was responsible for the run from $3 to $30?
I am not in the room for the strategy discussions these guys have, so I claim no special insight into their plan, only the knowledge from what I have been watching that they clearly have a plan they have been operating against. I suspect the owner of the big Put also is short shares. So this isn't just about the Puts, but rather the Puts are just a piece in the overall puzzle.
The $3 level makes sense on many levels for the entity that wants to, or is contemplating covering their remaining position.
$3 is the perfect pivot area for them to finish their cover (even if they ran the PPS to $4.50ish to do so) but also leaves them the option to crash it to $2ish before covering if they get the opportunity. At this point their already banked profits are huge, and they completely control the PPS, so there is no rush for them. They are already playing with house money here.
Well stated, and good question at the end. While we can clearly see there is a good reason why the big Put holder would work hard pinning the PPS at this level to protect their sizable profits, it might be a mistake to automatically assume the PPS will surge afterwards. It could rise, but we can only wait and watch.
But the bigger question is when does a rise in the PPS happen that will be sustained? I think that answer is not entirely in the hands of management. Whoever has proven they have absolute control of this PPS will probably decide that. At this point I am just hoping that part of their plan going forward is to run the PPS back up the flagpole after they have cashed in on the fortunes they made shorting this since July / August 2015.
I would consider this a neutral to flat report. Remember last year it went up 400K one report, but went down 700K the next.
I am guessing they added to the short position to knock the PPS back down when it jumped to $3.40 at one point right before Lombardo presented the 4th Qtr update.
Remember, every time Lombardo even schedules an appearance to talk about the overall health of the company they attack the PPS viciously from the opening bell...sometimes even before Lombardo has even had a chance to talk and say anything. That's all part of their program. They are trying to glean shares from retail, and it serves their purposes for retail investors to think that everything about the entire company sucks so bad it's hopeless.
I don't know what is the next direction they will take this, but for now whoever is controlling the PPS...and it most definitely is being controlled...has decided they are fine keeping it around $3. I am not sure what changes this. I guess it depends on who the man (hedge fund) behind the curtain is.
Approximately 42M shares have traded since middle of October. In that timeframe they have locked this down to around $3 give or take .20 to .30 cents in either direction (or 10% variance). That is what total and absolute control of a PPS looks like. ADXS is somebody's ATM machine.
The only question I have is will they continue to cover? And if so, where will they take the PPS when they are done?
Since Adage still holds over 4M shares, and appears to be passively standing by and allowing this to happen, I can only guess they are ultimately benefiting in some way? I don't know, but I am interested to see the outcome of this saga.
I sure wish I sold more at $24.
Iggy, for sure those shares were absorbed by somebody. These guys obviously have a plan. Whatever it is, I hope they finish it up soon.
They have been covering. That's the whole reason they crashed this from $8 to $3. So they could begin covering.
If you watch the volume daily for months now, somebody is clearly controlling this PPS. This hasn't been some wild and random crazy free fall. It has been very managed and controlled and their timing for each move along the way has been incredibly precise. In fact, the most disturbing aspect of this whole thing for me is how they have been able to exert total control of the PPS for years now with absolute impunity.
Currently (for going on 3 months now) they have boundaries they have created...around $2.85 at the bottom and $3.25 at the top. Whenever the PPS starts to drift too low or too high they jerk it back towards the middle closer to $3.
What will be interesting is the next 2-3 short reports. Will they continue to cover some more? If not then why? Do they really believe they can take this lower?
For all the breathless drama generated here day after day, nothing has really changed in relation to the PPS going on almost 3 months now. They (whoever they are) are keeping this pinned at $3 give or take 10 cents to 15 cents in either direction.
I agree with you. Shorts still need trading days with volume in the millions to cover.
It is very possible they try one more time to crash this. Low $2s may not happen, but I could see $2.50.
Either way, they have proven beyond a doubt that they are in total control of the PPS and can take it wherever they want.
I agree. For sure those Puts will be fiercely protected by whoever is poised to cash in on them.
To add to your point many of even the stud Bio companies are down 3% to 6% today due to IBB and XBI weakness. I even wonder if this sector takedown is a intentional pre-JPM shakeout for hedges and Tutes to gather some shares?
Regardless, I think it might be wise for ADXS management to wait until after Jan 19th to announce anything.
I also curious if Lombardo and the BOD will hold off on any major announcements until after Jan 19th?
I suspect it's possible that ADXS wanted to release 2017 4th Qtr financials and discuss results to get that out of the way in 2017 and not have it spill over to 2018.
From a strategic perspective, there is an argument that a small biotech like ADXS, under attack from a very effective short contingent should use their bullets judiciously.
Why not delay any major announcement until after the major Put holder is out of the way so they will no longer try to fiercely defend their profits?
We are all trying to make informed speculation on what happened here in the past 6 months.
Personally, I agree and totally believe Adage at the very least took the opportunity to take the tax loss on the highest priced shares, and I have said that since they sold them. Those appear to be the shares they purchased at $7.50 and $19 respectively.
If they also used those shares to deliver and close a short against the box position, it was even more logical and beneficial for them. Killing 2 birds with 1 stone so to speak.
And without making absolute claims about who was behind the major short in ADXS since 2015, there is no question in my mind now (unfortunately for me with the benefit of hindsight) that ADXS was pumped to $25-$30 in 2015 intentionally to build a major short position.
Since then they drove it to $8 and pinned it there for almost 18 months (outside of them having to regain control after the Amgen deal). I think this was to keep the PPS within range for their plan to eventually cover, which required them to crash it under $5 to do so. They succeeded and have kept the PPS pinned at $3 for most of the last 2+ months. They have used this level to begin covering (at least so far).
I am also guessing that the reason Adage has maintained a 10% ownership position was because of the priority access it afforded them to ADXS management. I am hoping it also is because they believe in the long term success of the ADXS LM platform.
I have not checked, but I do know that a significant component of the buying volume over the last 3 weeks has been very large block purchases.
These blocks from 25K-100K were too big for retail, so it's either covering taking place or institutions sniffing around and doing some buying.
I think the heavy buying volume in the morning, with the major slowdown in buying volume after the PPS crossed $3.15, with the clearly orchestrated close at 3:10... strongly suggests today may have been about shorts covering some shares. There were some large block purchases in the morning session.
I agree with Hornet that the owner of the major Put position will protect it. But in addition to the Put position they also need to cover shorts at the same time. So I think it looks like they're trying to cover some, without running the price up too much.
One thing the shorts definitely have done here very effectively for 2 1/2 years is to keep the chart broken. That's very important in their strategy. They don't want to do anything that will repair the chart in any significant way, and draw in the volume from the technical trader crowd. The technical trader crowd runs in packs, and are capable of generating millions of shares in volume. These traders don't care about the fundamentals of a company, or what better widget they might make, they only care about the chart and what they think the chart is telling them about direction and potential intensity of a move.
If, hypothetically speaking, a hedge fund like Adage has played a central role in this short cartel take down, then when they are ready to run this they will allow the chart to repair itself and start priming the pump. Then and only then will they create a chart that will suck in the packs of technical traders. This will generate additional retail buying and eventually could lead to some institutional purchasing.
Since Oct 2015, the short contingent in ADXS...whoever they are and assuming they cover the majority of their position between $3 and $4...will likely make more in profits (collectively) than ADXS current market cap.