I'm not going to necessarily refute any of his points other than the "executive turnover" that he cites. Aside from Rollock resigning (which he insinuates is bad despite any public knowledge), he makes it sound like there's been a huge shakeup in the company. He also says Richard Estalella resigned, when in fact he is still the President of the company last time I checked.

Appointing Macosko and Lupo to the BoD seemed like very smart moves to me.

Lastly, the change at CFO seems quite fitting seeing as Gary Davis was CFO when all of the accounting mishaps occurred (he was also the CFO of bodybuilding.com most recently to joining MSLP in 2012).

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10152868188178476&id=82286648475

Pretty nice Facebook ad spot for the Schwarzenegger series. 84.5k likes & 3.6k comments.

This is the first ad I've seen on FB. I've also been seeing amazon and bodybuilding.com ads on other websites.

I think you know quite well that they aren't "buying ferraris and selling them at a $50k loss".

Despite some of the absurd comments thrown around, we know their gross margins are currently in the mid 30% range. We also know that their team has gone from less than 30 employees in 2012 to roughly 200 currently. New distribution centers, a 500% increase in headcount and new product roll outs are large costs that have affected the bottom line in the short term.

When you implement a new ERP system/distribution center or hire a new employee, you don't expect revenue to immediately increase by the amount that it cost you to implement it/hire them. These are infrastructure investments that take time to see ROI.

People can say whatever they want about endorsements and how they haven't paid off...but they've gone from $0 to $200 million in 5 years. Show me another supplement company or any company for that matter that has done this. They spend a lot and it has paid off with massive revenue growth.

Even though this thing is illiquid as can be, it still trades pretty technically.

MSLP Chart:

MSLP traded technically perfect to the penny at -23.6% profit target (short) at $7.06 and immediately rejected these levels as seen here.



It is now looking like $9.63 is the next stop:

Gotcha thank you. I see that now. Looks like he's been shorting on and off for months.

Where do you see that?

Here's a clip of Kaepernick talking a bit about MusclePharm with the Fox pregame guys...

Great shoutout to @MusclePharm 3:45 in the video by @Kaepernick7 #mpnation https://t.co/HjbpMUBpFq

— Brad Pyatt (@BradPyatt) February 1, 2015

Welp, Johnny Manziel just checked into Rehab....let's hope there was a clause in his agreement that allows musclepharm to drop him as well.

Agreed, it's really seeming like we won't hear a word from them until March 31st unfortunately.

Least of my concerns right now. All of their products, including the Arnold line are Informed Choice Certified. You can go to www.informed-choice.org and see that the products are certified. This wouldn't just be a musclepharm issue. It would be a manufacturer and informed choice issue as well...doesn't worry me one bit. What ever happened with the lady who was suing fitmiss? Never heard a word about that after you posted it like 9 months ago.

Kaepernick doing his part to promote the new combat crunch flavor on fox sports:

http://www.bodybuilding.com/bodybuilders/supplements/misc-pages/musclepharm-military-challenge-landing-page/GetSwole_Mens_P3_v2_LowRes.pdf

This was a program they put out about a year ago...and Lind was on the cover of the printable program.

The bid/ask spread is 7.8/8.35 right now... 55¢ right now (aka 7% difference). I'm not saying MSLP deserves a 3x revs valuation...but I'd certainly say it deserves 1x revs (roughly 100% higher than current value)

I'm not going to deny that there has obviously been more buying pressure than selling pressure since november. The volume since Nov. 1 has been 1.92 million shares in roughly 90 days. So it took 90 days for 14% of the company to be traded...By comparison (and I realize this is almost an Apples to Oranges comparison) NFLX traded 25% of the O/S in less than 24 hours last week.

Unfortunately, I realize there will never be proper valuation unless a buyout or uplist occurs.

Truly shocking, Paulos Santos posts a negative article on Seeking alpha and the stock is off by 5%. I'd say that's pretty typical with this stock.

Also shockingly, his last article on MSLP was August 8th and it was an extremely positive article: seekingalpha.com/article/2401175-musclepharm-is-clearly-on-track-has-massive-potential

This day, MSLP traded over 40k shares and saw a 4.5% price INCREASE.

This is the "seeking alpha" effect on an illiquid stock.

A few people read an article, make a decision, and the stock price can be greatly affected...

This effect was studied and confirmed on stocks that are primarily retail owned by researchers at Purdue. See article here:

http://www.krannert.purdue.edu/news/features/alpha.php

Turok, Also notice that the stock is forming a series of "higher lows" each year around the time that you have circled.

4.75 in 2013

6.16 in 2014

high 7's low 8's so far this year.

That's typically bullish as well.

They get blasted for signing athletes that are too expensive and now you are saying they signed an athlete that is presumably too cheap....they might be paying him in supplements for all we know. He may be the best advertising ROI per dollar that they get. Who knows?

What are you talking about? Lind Walter is a professional bodybuilder. Chippendales, Mr. Olympia, or male model, they are one in the same. They lift weights for size and definition. He's a bodybuilder....tell me this isn't a bodybuilder...

Giving away a packet of product that costs less than $1 and reaches thousands of people is a very successful marketing technique. Not sure what the issue with that is.

MusclePharm is giving away a free sample of the new pre workout, and the Facebook post had over 2,300 likes and 1,600 comments. This is one of the most popular posts I have seen by them on social media. Doesn't necessarily mean it'll be a hit, but I'm sure they did their homework.

It seems to me as if Combat Crunch has become their brightest product. They are introducing new flavors seemingly as quickly as they can. They are getting it into new distribution channels. If any of their products are built for mass market, as of now, this is the one.

As far as the hardcore line goes...I'm not going to comment on the name, endorser, etc. All I know is that as per their social media, they had a ton of interest in products (like the Jym Supplements) that do not use "proprietary blends". Therefore, this line will contain dosages of the active ingredients (which is something that "hardcore" bodybuilders and weightlifters are looking for).

In fact, it says bodybuilding.com exclusive in the image:

The NEW #MP Hardcore Series is coming soon to @Bodybuildingcom!
RT if you're excited!#HardcoreMindset #HardcoreU pic.twitter.com/He9bNLmkqb

— MusclePharm® (@MusclePharm) January 24, 2015

Maybe they are going to sell the hardcore series exclusively at bodybuilding.com and sell their other products at other retailers (like you've been saying that should do all along). Segment the brands by distribution channel...

-Hardcore at bb.com
-MusclePharm at GNC
-Arnold as mass market (Walmart, SAMs, etc.)

I wouldn't hate that strategy at all...that being said, I'd like to think Lind Walter isn't making much money on this deal, as he is a nobody to anyone outside of the bodybuilding world and Chippendales fans...

Turok,

I am fully aware of that. I have spoken with IR multiple times over the last 8 months. I'm in agreement with you that this is heinously undervalued.

They didn't report any sec legal fees the last quarter did they? I think June was the last time we saw a legal expense for fighting this investigation.

I'm not really sure...if it was a top executive or two, I think it would be a short term negative and long term positive for the stock. What do you think?

Yes, I'd have to agree. The more iterations of the product that they have, the greater audience they will appeal to. Also, I can't see them continually adding new flavors of the product if the first 2 didn't/weren't doing very well. 4Q numbers should tell us alot with 3 full months of Combat crunch (2 flavors), 3 full months of cocoprotein, and about 2 full months of Sams/Walmart distribution.

IMO shorting here doesn't quite seem intelligent. Trading at P/S of roughly .6 x ttm revenue. No one has any idea what kind of quarter they posted in oct-dec (possibly blowout, possibly dud). Think there's a lot more risk in shorting than being long here. Huge move downward over past 2 months. Volume extremely light. Anything could happen. Not exactly a short sellers dream scenario.

Yes I saw this as well. Hopefully that is a good sign as to the popularity/sales of Combat Crunch. Could certainly see it having the potential to be their biggest line by volume/sales.

Just saw a post on facebook by suppz.com saying they just got another pallet (4,000 units) of Assault back in stock. They ran out of the last 4,000 in just 6 days...granted they were and still are running a BOGO, but that's some serious product being moved for a website I've never even been to/heard of.

Last year on January 29th, Brad Pyatt issued an "Update Letter to Shareholders"

Here were the highlights:

- 2013 Full year revenue of $110 million (which ended up being dead on)

- Implemented a high level ERP-CRM system

- Establishment of Internal Audit Committee (still have had some accounting issues)

- Hinted at new product lines that will "fuel growth" (combat crunch, coco protein, and many other new products that they introduced in 2014).

Essentially, yes, the last week of January last year, they presented preliminary numbers as to unaudited FY13 full year revenues. Your guess is as good as mine whether we will get the same kind of update in the coming weeks for FY14/FY15.

That product has BCAAs in it. That must mean it's protein spiked. I'd be willing to bed GSK gets sued over that (sarcasm):

"Progain naturally includes 7g of BCAAs in each serving, which the body cannot make by itself."

In all seriousness, it looks similar to MSLP's products with different packaging.

I wouldn't expect to hear anything until March.

They have until March 31st to release Q4 / FY14 full year results as per the schedule here:

http://www.merrilldirect.com/cps/rde/xchg/merrilldirect/hs.xsl/edgar-sec-filing-deadlines-and-holidays-2015.htm


MSLP has either 75 or 90 days from the end of their quarter which makes mid-late March the deadline.

You are basing sales numbers off of a top 50 list on bodybuilding.com, yet nobody knows what sales metrics are used to populate this list? Is it top selling products in the past week? month? year? Is it total dollar value of product sold or is it units?

No body has the answers to this. The first week after Combat Crunch was released, it was in the top 20 of this list. Presumably sales at that time were less than $1,000,000 in the first week. Thus, does that mean the list is calculated weekly? If so, how does a supplement being in the top 50 have a direct correlation to annual sales?

For instance, check out http://www.bodybuilding.com/store/best-protein-bars.html

This shows that Combat Crunch is the #1 selling protein bar on their site. Yet, if you visit the full Top 50, combat crunch isn't even on the list. What am I missing here?

You can't base sales on a chart that is arbitrarily calculated. Period.

Also of the 13.2 million that they owe in endorsements in 2015, it seems to me that roughly half of this expense (atleast) is non-cash, equity based compensation for Arnold, Tiger, etc. As of September 30, Arnold and Tiger had roughly $10 million in unvested stock outstanding.

Also to play devils advocate to the comments about MusclePharm's endorsers underperforming in 2014. The company has roughly doubled revenues this year, and as some have said, their main endorsers haven't had their greatest years. Just imagine the positive effect in addition to their current sales momentum if Tiger, Manziel, Kaepernick, etc. get the ball rolling a bit in 2015.

(starting with Tiger in 2 weeks)

I didn't claim anything as fact. I merely offered up a guess as to what he does annually through bodybuilding.com.

$10 million itself seems pretty high for him to be doing through one website with 4 products roughly a year after he opened the company, but it's my GUESS.

MusclePharm's revenues at bodybuilding.com are essentially flat year over year for January - September. Yet during that same time frame, MusclePharm's sales increased 88%. That's a good thing! I don't understand what there is to dislike about this? The less reliant they are on an online bodybuilding company, the better. This means that other accounts such as GNC, Vitamin Shoppe, walgreens, costco, sams, walmart, etc. are seeing large increases in sales.