Stock Picks
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Great $RAFA Video! - Construction Project Video Update @ "Tashkent Pharma Park" cluster | July 30, 2021 in #Uzbekistan
Black small square Admin Building
Black small square Laboratory, Center of Pharmaceutical Products & Research Center & New Pharma University
Black small square Pharmaceutical Technical Center
Huge $RAFA News! Rafarma Signs Trilateral Investment Agreement Officially Launching Tashkent Pharmaceutical Plant Build.
"Production of cancer drugs and drugs from human donor blood plasm." Total investment will amount to $85 million!!!
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RAFA/news?id=314051
Wow. This is quite the project. This will equal major, major revenue for Rafa:
Great summary! We have a huge winner here. Thanks
New $Rafa Report...Price Target Raised to $16. Nice! Congrats, to everyone who is building a position here. The next few years look bright.
JULY 2021 RAFARMA IG EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT
Our Estimates
In this section we provide detail regarding our revenue, margin and cash flow estimates. Our estimates used in the multiple of revenues valuation approach are the same as those used for the DCF valuation. As we have discussed, there are a variety of factors that we expect will drive double digit topline growth over
the next several years. In 2021, we anticipate that the strong momentum from new partnerships and product launches will push revenues to over $119 million, in line with the company’s guidance. We anticipate conservatively that this proforma growth rate will continue in coming years as geographical penetration continues and sales efforts continue to gain momentum. 2021 to 2024 topline growth is conservatively forecasted to be 59% each year in our DCF model as the company reaches critical mass.
Rafarma is expected to use its consolidated businesses to achieve at least 2% penetration in the radio-pharmaceuticals, targeted drug delivery and AI therapies markets.
Although gross margins are anticipated to rise in 2021 and beyond due to the addition of higher margin products that make up a larger portion of total revenues, we have conservatively maintained the same gross margin as achieved in 2020. Over time, we expect that gross margins will converge to industry averages as
partnerships, manufacturing processes and sourcing are refined. Our analysis indicates industry gross margins of above 60%, however, we adopt a conservative approach and assume that Rafarma will only achieve a 59% margin in 2021 and beyond.
SG&A expenses are expected to grow at a slower rate than topline as many costs are fixed in nature and rise in step function as new capacity is added. The majority of SG&A is comprised of sales and marketing costs which are in lockstep with sales given the Company’s commission structure. The remaining SG&A is more or
less fixed and we expect Rafarma will continue to leverage this cost as revenues grow. Current SG&A of 11% is expected to fall in 2021 and beyond, however in our DCF model, we maintain this line item at 11%. Our estimates are used for both our DCF model and our multiple of forward EBITDA and revenues.
Ownership and Dilution
As of March 31, 2021, shares of common stock outstanding totaled 87.7 million, which includes all of the shares issued to Biocogency owners.
Earnings Summary
2H-2020 was a turning around period for Rafarma post reverse-merger with Biocogency. FY-2020 topline results were $74.730 million, a 59.42% increase over proforma results in the previous year. Net income from operations was $14.847 million pegging the earnings per share at 0.1692, and price to earnings ratio at
9.3381. While gross margin was 44.27%, operating margin was 25.53%. Cash balance was $5.4 million.
Valuation
RAFA currently trades at a forward EV to sales ratio of 5.38X using our FY-2021 revenue estimate of $119 million. Applying our revenue, growth and cash flow estimates, we calculate a price target by blending our EV/Sales and DCF valuations.
Target Price Summary
We believe double digit revenue growth over the next several years combined with sales synergies and continued relationship development with group purchasing organizations will result in substantial fixed cost leverage and profit growth. We apply a 5.94X multiple to our FY-2021 revenue estimate to generate a
revenue-based target price of $10.34.
Our DCF valuation applies a 12% discount rate to our five year cash flow forecast, which generates a present per-share value of $13.90. Refer to the following exhibit which summarizes our cash flow estimates and DCF calculations. Based on our valuation work, we have calculated a one year target price of $12.12, which is a 50/50 blend of our DCF and multiple of revenues target prices.
Summary
Rafarma Pharmaceuticals is levered to several key growth drivers, and demographic trends that are anticipated to maintain topline expansion in the double digit range for the foreseeable future. The combination of radio-pharmaceutical products, and targeted delivery products will benefit from sales force and product synergies that are anticipated to expand revenues at a substantially faster rate than expenses. The sales force has been growing consistently over the last year following a 2020 overhaul of the sales function. All the planned for growth segments have a history of developing, gaining approval and launching innovative products that address unmet needs in the anti-aging, immunotherapy, targeted delivery and nuclear medicine. Both company guidance and our estimates call for a double-digit proforma growth rate in 2021, and nearly $120 million in combined revenues. The company is also expected to be EBITDA positive on a full year basis in FY-2021 as well. Rafarma is trading at
a very favorable valuation relative to historical transactions in the space. Currently, the company is valued at 5.38X 2021 revenues.
The Nasdaq approval board has been working from home for well over a year now. It has definitely slowed up approval times.
+$1.75 support this week. Read the tape. Buying all I can
Definitely see this going up to a 1.65-1.75 support area this week. Congrats on everyone who grabbed shares down here!
Great Rafa video! Very exciting. Rafa did $75 million in revenue last year and these Microspheres will put it in another hemisphere.
Rafarma's Park is looking nice! I can't wait until it's done and bringing in massive revenues!!!
Huge freaking $GRYN news!
Green Hygienics Holdings Inc. Signs Exclusive Sales and Distribution Agreement for Mexico and Central America with Inter Cargo and ABA Cargo.
"All together they contribute to 32,192 points of sale in Mexico alone, with additional active relationships in several other Latin American countries...Amazon, Nissan, Unilever, and Walmart, to name a few, are some of the main customers for the two companies."
https://greenstocknews.com/news/otcmkts/gryn/green-hygienics-holdings-inc-signs-exclusive-sales-and-distribution-agreement-for-mexico-and-central-america-with-inter-cargo-and-aba-cargo
Just read the tape instead of bashing.
This is not being pumped anywhere and yet it keeps going up. Hmm, what does that mean? Someone is taking a very large position for a reason.
Yes. I’m pretty excited to start seeing explosive growth for GRYN. I think there will be a drastic change in revenue over the next few quarters!
Well, as soon as a company is profitable they usually take out the converts. We’ve been waiting on them to announce this.
Yes. It’s organic hemp.
May need to consolidate here for a few days. That was big move.
New IR Firm! AAZZF is making all the right moves.
https://www.accesswire.com/650869/A2Z-Smart-Technologies-Retains-IMS-Investor-Relations
I’d have to agree with you. Short is pretty much stuck here.
No, they are still making major profits...and the 1st of their 200 projects is probably almost done by now, as it started in March.
Well they’ve got plenty of cash. Now it’s time to execute and bring in the contracts!!!
I agree with you there. I’m all for more assets getting rolled in. It makes sense to put everything either in the intial audit or wait and put it in once uplisted to Nasdaq. But I don’t think you can add it in between.
Yep. It takes time. Sounds like the sister company will be done first. This one may not move until 2022. I’m happy accumulating and holding. Others don’t have the patience.
If you don’t like it sell.
I’m more than happy with current financials and acquisitions. I believe volume will come in after audits and uplist to a higher exchange.
Wow! Congrats to all shareholders. Huge win. RIP shorts
That all depends on how many partnerships they forge. They’ve announced about 10 of the 200 slated projects. But yes. Probably 3-5 year time span for triple digits.
Looking strong! Great business plan. Should explode soon
Good $RAFA "Global" Strategy Update:
https://tinyurl.com/zv293muz
Rafarma implements major projects in Russia, Slovenia, Uzbekistan, also in China
Currently developing new industrial & scientific projects in the USA, Czech Republic, Greece, Iraq, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, & Argentina
The more they short, the more pain they will be in when news drops. BUY!
EWLL abot to fly baby! Congrats to everyone accumulating. RIP shorts
He’s out now and doesn’t matter anymore. He’s a non factor after today.
Naked short is when the seller does not obtain the shares within the required time frame, the result is known as a "fail to deliver.
That’s what you are seeing here on EWLL.
https://www.diffen.com/difference/Naked_Short_Selling_vs_Short_Selling
I’m upping my target to .10 by end of May. This is about to explode when naked shorts start covering.
It’s gonna explode. With at least 12 Billion naked short, that’s a lot of shares to cover.
Shorts are getting killed here. Billions shorted now and are under water. Charts are pointing to the run of a century.
Wow, shorts are done. I’m hearing 10+ to cover when the company drops news. Big funds in now!!!
Wow! Congrats to everyone that soaked up shares the last few days. It’s looking like shorts will be forced to cover next week. EWLL was on the fence, but they pulled it out and screwed the shorts.
Love it. Shorts getting smashed on now. That’s what happens when you have a company that makes moves like this! Long term HOLD