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i got the same digits in my spread sheet, mr. cash. also, my 20/40/80 wk projected constant width envelopes all bottom between 1325 and 1360. a move below 1325 would be suprising. (1325 is also the 38.2 rt of the whole move from 3/03 low to 1/04 high)
would you consider a trendline break from the 7/7-present highs a confirmation that the 10wk low is in?
airedale and mr. cash, you two should be commended on your excellent market analysis. i am curious, though, on how you trade using hurst cycles. do you a trade a specific component? (mr. cash , i've seen posts that you are a 10wk guy). will you take profits on the inititial move off a 5 wk low and re-enter a long on a 6-7/12-14 day low? do you do what hurst suggests and not trade against the sum of larger components? i know mr. cash is an ndx/nq guy, airedale do you dabble in spx, dow?
thanx for the response, airedale. fwiw, my 20wk projected ndx constant width envelope bottoms at 1350...
airedale,
your 80wk fld broke? can you post that chart? been using rough extrapolations of 40/80wk low and come up with @ 1340+-22...
thanx mr. cash! you're not going long on that 1440 break, are you? limited upside at this point. you looking to short on a 3-3.5/6-7 day high for the ride down?
...and is being retested now:)
mr. cash. how do you have your vtl set up? my vtl from the 6/30 high broke at 1430...
airedale,
wow! mucho thanx for the detailed response. that really helped clear things up. there definitely is a hurst "knowledge lag" from the book to the course. envelope analysis, vtl's, offset ma targeting have been effective over the last year, but it may be necessary to add phasing, flds,etc. to the tool box...
thanx aire. look forward to your analysis...
airedale,
in my best nfl referee voice: "upon further review...
using envelope analysis and a clear 40wk vtl break in nov.03, your assessment that march 24 was the 20wk low is probably correct (the date of the next 80wk low will confirm).
therefore, assuming march 03 being the 4-4.5yr low and 8/8/03 as the 1st 20 wk low, i am labeling 11/21/03 as the 40wk low(37wks from march 03 but only 15wks from the 8/8/03 low). however, that makes me uncomfortable with 5 week low labels from 8/8 to 11/21. i’d love to know how you have those marked:) also love to know how you have the 5wk lows from 11/21/03-3/24/04 marked. btw, assuming 4/21, 5/17 and 6/22 being the 5 wk lows of the current 20wk cycle beginning 3/24, wouldn’t the upcoming cycle low due 7/27-7/30 be the 80 wk low? i know you’ve been calling a late august 80wk low…
airedale,
thanx for the inciteful response in regards to the hurst 6.5wk cycle question. i believe hurst cited in "profit magic..." several examples where cycles can be divisible by 3. heck, the 4-4.5 yr cycle consists of 3 80 wk cycles. if we rally off tuesdays low(signaling another 33 day cycle may 17 to 7/6), i'm considering developing a second set of indicators to track 33day(6.5wk), 99day(19.5wk-that looks familiar:)cycles.
even though a march 24 20wk low fits better using my ndx constant width envelope, i go with may 17 as the date of the last 20 wk low due to the lower troughs displayed on the dow and sp500.
oops, forgot to post dates of definitive ndx lows i was speaking of:
10/8-11/11/02(24 tds. only 1 of 2 not to fall within 33+-6)
11/11-12/31 (32)
12/31-2/13/03 (32)
2/13-4/10 (39)
4/10-5/21 (27)
5/21-7/1 (30)
7/1-8/8 (27)
8/8-9/30 (35)
9/30-11/21 (38)
11/21-2/4/04 (49. the other 1)
2/4-3/24 (33)
3/24-5/17 (37)
if we rally off yesterday's low, that would make a 5/17-7/6 (33)...
airedale,
i know your feelings that the nominal 5wk cycle has compressed (avg 22 or so days vs. the traditional 24-28)durng the latter part of this 80wk cycle. what are the possibilities that hurst's original 6.5 week cycle is coming back into fashion? going back to the oct. 2002 lows, a case can be made that we are seeing 33+-6 day cycles(hursts 6.5). mr. cash gave me an excellent retort to this via email last week. was interested in your thoughts...
mr. cash,
i've done some research and the use of your preferred half span offset lma crossing price action seems more accurate than the extrapolation using full and half span lma s(per hurst in "profit magic...) as a "first alert" to a cycle high or low. your preferred method is also more beneficial if the bottoming/topping is not lengthy and complex ("v" tops and bottoms vs. double/triple bottoms, etc. see your nice call on the last 5wk low 6/22). btw, bravo on the fma discovery! brilliant!
some rough ndx projections/extrapolations:
3 day high due tomorrow or friday 1468+-3
12 day low due tomorrow-monday:1428+-10
limited upside after the low due to cyle status(based on may 17 20 wk low. i know you like march 24 airedale:):
12 day bottoming
24 day topping
48 day down
96 day up
40 wk down
80 wk down
4-4.5 yr up
then, 24 day low due 7/27-30 1426+-10
mr. cash,
excellent analysis via email. thank you for being so generous with your time and knowledge...
so instead of extrapolating the full, half and price when the half turns, you extrapolate just the half and price when it turns?
btw, if i'm being tedious or trampling on anything proprietory, let me know and i'll back off...
mr.cash, thank you for the info. i use the the half and full span ma's as laid out by hurst in chapter 6 "profit magic..."
mr.cash,
using lma extrapolation(5wk=24,-12& 12,-6 on daily and 88,-44&44,-22 on 98min chart) and your fma method, i'm getting a 1438+-6 target. just curious to how you are showing a more shallow dip...
techcharter,
it certainly is feasible. monday and tuesday are 23 and 24 trading days into the nominal 5wk cycle. these are certainly within the tolerances of recent 5wk cycle lows. fwiw, my updated envelope and lma analysis target a 5wk low of 1438+-6 early next week. this coupled with a 50% fib at 1434 and monthly pivot point of 1436 makes for some decent confluence:) or who knows, airedale and mr. cash may be right on the money in their assesment that the 5wk cycle low may have occurred last week. that, of course would nullify monday or tuesday being any kind of turn date cyclically...
1434 is also the 50 fib. of the 5wk low to high...
2.5wk(12day)offset ma just turned down. extrapolation of it and 5wk(24 day) oma projects ndx 1434+-6 for 5wk low
airedale, about a year ago,after watching your exchange with mr. cash and other cycle guys on rb and being stunned by the accuracy of the calls, i got "the profit magic..." and have read and studied it for countless hours. haven't gotten the course, yet, but have had success with vtls, half/full offset ma's, triangle analysis and mr. cash's fma discovery...
greetings mr. cash! been a big fan of you and airedale's cycle analysis for a long time. i trade the 5 week cycle myself. you still convinced 5/17 was the 20wk low? i know a 3/24 20wk low would result in some very short 5/10/20wk cycles of late(that's nominality for you:), but isn't the move off the 3/24 low (10.3% ndx) more indicative of a move off a 20 wk low than 5/17 (only 9% to date)?