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Yes it is. I live in pdx and have a home near Bend, both are superb markets
Fidelity will not let clients trade in these now. TdAmeritrade still allows. I am wondering the same thing, why no trading now. No one is running for the exit and no one buying in. I guess the stakeholders have their positions and are letting the bet ride.
Yep, I think you are correct. Not a political statement, but drain the swamp. There's enough pooh on both sides of the isle on the gse,s.
Seems like after the RDN release the pmi'ers will not being growing their stock price for awhile. Summer doldrums are coming. Last year mtg went to $6 ish. This year I forecast into the 8's or low 9's if the market softens.
Thx TG53, sold out of my position that I had bought below $2. I'll get back to ride this to $20. When do you think we bounce on this correction? Also, what blog site have you moved to since Yahoo blew up?
My belief is that because this recaptured value is in the corporate body. Any entity that has an ownership right to the corporation may benefit.
Perhaps what the author means to say that if the reserves are recovered after the NWS would be halted all recaptured value goes to the corporate entity not the FEDs per the sweep.
Yes, I have read the article. The fannies only pay the Feds on the profit and capital value of the company. Because reserves for bad loans diminish profits they can be a place future profits can be realized. They would only hit profits if/when, through established accounting rule decisions, and mgt. approval to be released for reclassifying as profits. Double journal entry simplified: reduce reserves for bad loans, increase profits from performing loans. Yes, there could be releases at such a time as mgt. agreed to do it. No, the Feds can't touch those reserves until reclassified.
I can offer a comment. I've invested for years in MTG and RDN both private mortgage insurers, pmi'ers. They too have been recognizing improvements in their book of loans. With this improvement it provides reserves that can be brought back into profits. The famines also provide mortgage insurance. Yes, it's a viable situation, but I wouldn't know the fannies position.
No i don't. But when you raised the question I researched that they have only increased BV by .11 total in the last two profitable quarters. I do wonder where the additional income per share has ended up and how.
TG53, estimize is call for .22/sh for the quarter. Last quarter Mtg did .25. This quarter they don't have the bond interest and fewer shares. What do you calculate the qtr earnings will be?
Berkowitz, Fairholme funds should be your best bet.
TG53, I see MTG EPS is 70% higher than RDN with only 50% more shares. The pe of RDN is 12.xx and mtg is only 4.xx. Mtg trades far more share volume than Rdn. With your and my analysis showing decreasing expenses and decreasing convert shares coming, why is mtg trading at a such a discount to the peer group? Essnt has a pe way higher. I look for mtg to blow earnings expectations away the next couple of quarters. Rdn does pay a small divi. I see mtg going to $12-13/sh if they execute and there is no recession. Thoughts? Too bullish?
Thanks TG3. Post here now, the yahoo old message board is not always available anymore. I appreciate your analysis.
Well at least you have a sense of humor. We will all have an appetizer of roast short next week in your absence.
Welcome TG3, I've always enjoyed your views and analysis.
Oh I like that. There is no question we are all very tired of our government slow playing this.
Thank you Obit
Thank you commander. Where did you find her schedule? I would be interested if/when she makes a west coast.
Super, Go Navy Air!
That's not what I remember. While the AIG case is slightly different. A ruling for AIG makes our case nearly certain. A ruling againstAIG does not stop the takings case and still leaves the sweep wide open for a strong challenge. There is also the issue of TSY influencing decisions as well. We are covered on the downside with different challenges but helped extremely if the issues in AIG go to AIG's favor.
I would think the organizations would try to book the remaining DTA's if we go another year. But what you say is certainly true. The government can't take their debt, they can only bankrupt them. Can you imagine the hairy mess that a congress would recreate out of this, oh boy. It's hard to believe congress would want to take this on. In fact with the recent activism in congress maybe they are signaling they don't want this mess.
I agree. It's uncovering them that is the challenge. Where do you go to trade ideas to find them? Is there a chat board you use to share ideas? I've a few in my portfolio and a new one I'm currently adding.
This time I hope you are correct. ??
Maybe, but two 1,250,00 share buys each yesterday on upticks tell me someone is gobbling up shares. That continues today with two buys over 200,000 shares each. Hmmmm, I wonder who is committing the millions.
Could some please coward me the irk for the Berkowitz discussion scheduled for Tuesday?
Thank you
Hmm, that would be quite a nice move. I have a lot of shares from under $2. I would think they would have to raise their BV quite a lot from here to get to $60. Maybe in Vegas we can discuss this.
Speaking of Vegas I still have my complete position in Fnma/Fmcc. Rhetoric has improved nicely. Hard to say when release is but it's closer.
Interesting, I've been watching the short position evaporate. It's smaller by 75% than two months ago. I have the same outlook. Results are terrific and still will improve. This is a lit rocket aimed for $13.
Why do you think that?
Miko, thanks for the short sources. My review is that the price has been so stagnant that the shorts haven't had to resort to much naked short selling to keep the price down. I come to this opinion by looking at the total short position, it is actually up 3%. In September that total short position went up dramatically and has not come down. I continue to believe someone wants a lid on this price, someone with a very lot of money wants a lid on the price. It's a very risky position.
I'm long and sure hope the great direction in developments of the past six months begins to translate to a more reasonable share valuation.
Source please?
What point was CNBC attempting to make with that FNMA statement?
Bye bye. Seems like a tell to me that release is coming while you are in the village.
Where are you checking that, Brad? I've been looking on the OTC website and it hasn't been posted.
Happy Thanksgiving to you all. This has been a most interesting ride, thank you all for your contributions.
Long and strong. This position has legs for awhile. Look for upside price movement as shorts get out of the way of the company and GS.
See you at the Wynn sometime D.
I don't think the government wants a public AIG trial. With 20+ lawsuits, there going to get one if they don't craft a release. Do you think the republicans will help Obama if the hammer comes down? He and Watt better structure their future or somebody else will write the history for them.
There is a lot of press to the negative about shareholders. Ackman is one of the few shareholders that can garner press on his own. It's important that shareholder rights become an issue. The transition to less government risk is already happening with the GSE's. As that becomes recognized, shareholder rights, aka private company will be the next step forward. I think he is positioning our claim properly and at the right time. Remember, Berkowitz is working behind the scenes to craft the release formation of the company. It's all moving forward. Look back six months, you can see the progress in the press.
CNBC Santelli, focus on "fixing" no disparaging. Is the rhetoric changing? The new home buyer numbers and minority home buyer numbers are really bad. There is growing pressure to get fnma/FMCC productive again. Listen for the rhetoric change, I think it is coming after the elections and before the newbies are sworn in.
Why are the trades not showing up as transactions? I'm not seeing the trades reported.
Trunk, the way I read your message shorts increased their position? Is that correct? If so doesn't that mean more folks expect additional downside to the stock?