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Hey there SolarGuyII - welcome. The philosophy of this board is to be nice to newcomers (as long as they are themselves nice) and try to help out answering their questions.
I guess I am not "new to the market" but I am from Australia meaning I don't fully understand all the US nuances.
Solar3D's solar cell as promised is indeed a game changer provided that it can be manufactured at a low enough cost.
Batteries aren't really a big deal to add into solar installations - just that at the moment they are not particularly cost effective.
Hard to value Solar3D - if the solar cell flies then would certainly be more than $70 mil.
I would call it as a speculative but promising investment - not yet a no brainer until there is reliable 3rd party validation of the solar cell.
Yep, Solar City is not profitable and is also taking a large risk (with other peoples money) on building a great big factory. Personally, in the case of Solar3d I think I would prefer to start smaller and prove up the technology.
Of course I understand that and to some extent you are correct; however the amount of information we have is minimal - my thought is that more could (& perhaps should) have been disclosed than has currently occurred.
By way of example if JN came forth with "discussions are progressing fine with X number of manufacturers" then I would not regard that as "fluff" and no "secrets" have been disclosed...
Well I don't agree...
To me the PR was just entertaining fluff...
I want more information on the how the manufacturing discussions are progressing - assuming they are actually are, that is.
On the plus side we all know JN has promised to deliver relatively soon and as much I am tempted haven't flipped this stock yet.
Well I am not interested in "feelings" or trying to predict pps - just cold hard facts.
A more interesting game (to me) would be to try to guess the manufacturing cost per watt that we will hopefully come in at. So to get the ball rolling: at the moment to beat the top Chinese manufacturers we have to come in at less than 50c a watt module cost.
Any takers ?
Patent Panic !
wow - talk about mountains out of molehills...
I'm gonna side with Chink on this one - JN wasn't born yesterday and will have the patent ownership sorted. Do I know this for sure?
Yes because this is the only logical conclusion; Do I have proof in writing that I can refer you to? Nope...
(fact is to believe otherwise I would require proof!)
I don't ask that you think before you post - but do be sure to think before you buy or sell - and sensible advise would be to not invest more than you afford to lose in any penny stock.
Well at some point there does - particularly if you expect to raise investment capital - which would be the case, say, if SLTD was to manufacturer the cell itself.
Since the plan is to partner for manufacturing my guess is only the partner needs to be convinced the cell actually works.
All pure speculation!
Anyone who does is either a liar or has inside knowledge.
Me thinks, therefore the answer is no one did...
Best guess is the prototype would be supplied to a prospective partner for testing - once certain conditions are met.
Welcome to the board.
Yes SLTD is shooting for the mid 20's which is close to the "practical limit" for silicon pv.
This is not a small bump in efficiency; this is a game changing transition (over companies are shooting for 20 - 22% say some time next year).
So you are wrong - the industry has not "moved on". There are speculative risks still present as to whether SLTD's technology can be successfully commercialized - this is a big unknown that the company has yet to provide much information on.
All,
Please keep posts on topic.
The topic is SLTD.
The topic is NOT stock promotion companies or other posters.
Most interesting summary - thanks muchly for putting that together.
Dilution is an interesting aspect in relation to the next acquisition - another reason why I keep saying I would prefer they get rocking with the cell first.
That's cool. You don't have to agree!
I essentially agree with your thought's as well. Really it is a matter of how you define "vaporware" - generally speaking it would defined as a product that is not yet on sale but which is known to be forthcoming.
I would be reasonably confident at this stage that there is a cell sitting in the lab - probably 2x2 inches or so..; presumably the performance characteristics of the cell have been established and yes, this information may be being held back for a variety of reasons.
Not sure on the relevance of Richards coming back to the board.
So still a few steps as we work our way up the chain from a cell manufacturer to a panel manufacture before the other part of S3D has something to install.
To me the follow-up is even better & a sign of meaningful progress.
3rd Cell prototype finished finally. But still - no details meaning that the cell is still vaporware.
Dude - that depends on who is doing the asking...
My, my a lot of wild speculation here today - the company doesn't need to put out hype with you guys doing just fine yourself. Might pay to remember cool, calm and unemotional is the best way to play the markets.
OK enough of that crazy talk: awesome news PR and we are on a ROCKET TO DA MOON !!!!!
ha ha : guess you are right about being "crowd funded" - but that does raise a question in my mind: is their a easy way to determine the major shareholders (say the top 10) ?
(on the Aussie exchange there is a top shareholder list in companies annual reports)
You are absolutely right - I have bought into speculative stocks for many years and I can't readily recall a case where a profitable business is taken over by a promising but very speculative company. Normally they struggle for years getting shareholder or VC funding then if they are very lucky they are taken over of cut a deal with a big player. Quite extraordinary really.
I guess this makes Solar3D a little special for me along with the fact that it was the penny stock that got me looking over the US pennies. Like many here, I continue to wait with baited breath for cell news and thence where this company will take us.
Lighten up guys:
Stay on topic (SLTD) ; not other posters or how this board is managed; don't resort to name calling;
Be helpful to & tolerant of newcomers ;
and disagree politely!
well there are other micro-inverter manufacturers who can connect panels well in excess of 300w...
just happens that Enphase is the only one doing really well.
Yep - this my understanding as well. Generally speaking roof-top solar panels go up in 50w increments with 250w or 300w being a fairly common size at the moment. So in theory, tis a matter of sticking enough S3D cells in the panel to deliver that amount of power.
Some micro-inverter companies - most importantly the biggest one by market share; Enphase do maintain a list of compatible panels. So there can be compatibility issues - though in general this is not too much for us to worry about.
Would like to have a better understanding of the cost structure in solar panel production though.
Glass is not the only possible encapsulation material for solar cells - e.g. also possible to use a polymer which brings some advantages.
Dude :
- I got solar panels on my roof
- I donated money to a local club to help put solar panels on their roof
- I got three different types of solar panels for my demo system for the business I am trying to get going
- I have investments in several companies with solar potential - including SLTD (& would like more)
Think I am living the dream....
Also there has been at least one solar installer on this board from time to time plus at least of couple of other dudes thinking about a solar business.
I agree the solar cell is, by definition : vaporware. SUNWorks is a speculative indicator that "something" is in train - but without credible third party validation some doubt remains.
That being said I am still backing the dream. I want that solar cell to be real. I want to market panels with the S3D solar cells - that's my extended dream!
True because that was not an assumption - merely my expression of an alternative possibility.
Good post and exactly what I was thinking when reading through today's posts. Also, for all we know JN's religious convictions do not permit him to get seriously rich off his SLTD holding.
Generally speaking, penny stocks are all about speculation and we are well served by timely reminders that that is what we are doing here.
This board is going very well too - have not had to seriously consider deleting a post for ages.
Yes I would agree - with very good cell news - SLTD will almost certainly attract capital; if required.
I would think a solar cell update is next up on the agenda - too much longer and investors will start to get spooked.
I am having a look at this one too.
Have to work out how to buy shares on the TSX though (from Australia).
There is no "bragging" to be considered. While in some situations what you say could be true JN should just make factual announcements on events as they occur.
Then its up to investors and anyone else interested to consider what attention they will pay to SLTD.
Maybe,
Given there is no proof - all is just pure speculation on everyone's part...
At best we have a lab cell maybe about ready to rock and roll.
JN can go public with many things - without the need to disclose any IP.
JN don't need to focus on the lab work, he needs to focus on the deals to get our solar cell into production.
Cell, Cell, Cell.
Focus must remain on the solar cell - simple as that.
Only not bad???
I would have rated that as pretty good !
Thanks for info.
Yep, we seem to be pretty much on the same page...
Also, there are other ways to protect IP besides patents - confidentiality agreements and so forth.
Don't agree about the Panasonic "one reason" factor mentioned by Nome - seems to me more likely JN being nobodies fool would have entered into IP agreements with Panasonic as part of engaging them.
My view remains : would prefer to see JN and company focus on the solar cell - without this we are just another solar installation company. My working assumption is that JN is simply waiting for tech team sign-off before releasing news - i.e. a sensible, cautious approach.
I am not up on patent law but I think that don't matter too much - the application is in and as long as its eventually granted then it applies from that earlier date of publication.
Maybe have a look at qSolar (QSL).
I'm not yet a shareholder but only because I can't find an easy what to buy in.
Maybe have a look at qSolar.
Im not yet a shareholder but only because I can't find an
So any further thought's on an inverter company that may be of interest to SLTD ?
Myself, I like CyboEnergy:
- they have a truly innovative product set
- manufacture in the US
- at the moment focused on small to medium solar installs
- and to top things off their office is just down the road from SUNworks
Perhaps potential for some future partnership / alliance.
Definitely not simple but theoretically correct.
At this point I have not seen enough info to make any sort of very non-speculative judgement call. For better analysis (obviously) we need some solar cell/panel manufacturing expertise.
I do think that most manufacturer's are looking reduce costs by:
- reducing or replacing silver used for connections
- making frame-less panels(eliminating aluminum)
- reducing silicon
If true, Solar3D's promise of using existing material and manufacturing is a big plus - because we can market to the largest industry segment - instead of having to do everything as do small manufacturers who give exotic materials a go.
Sorry, but seriously, how do "we know the panel is happening" ?
I will accept we know the cell is happening - but not whether manufacturing economically is possible. So there is a least a case 4 where regardless of how awesome the cell is - it is simply uneconomic to make into panels.
Still, for now, I'm a believer...
Question: does anyone happen to have a breakdown of the cost components of manufacturing a solar panel ?
Thanks for that info in an easy to read form. All that academic speak on quantum dots just gets a bit hard to wade through and make sense of.
I am happy here too - SLTD being the hook for looking at the US penny stocks - and I love that they now earn revenue by installing solar systems. Remarkable really.
"Btw the quantumdot(only ready in 4 years) company someone posted yesterday that is linked to another solarpanel producing company can also integrate sltd's structure in their panel to boost effiecincy."
This presumably refers to QTMM (another company I have an interest in) - so I interested if you are you able to elaborate on integrating SLTD's solar structure ?
(does sound like that could be truly awesome; assuming quantum dots take off like they are predicted to)
Surprised there is no commentary on The Department of Commerce seeking to impose substantial tariffs on Chinese panel makers.
Presumably this would be of benefit to Sunworks who installs SunPower panels which are good but come at quite a premium.
Also potentially a factor to be considered in Solar3D's manufacturing/licensing negotiations.
A few other random thoughts:
- while we all celebrate JN's business acumen I thought it would be nice if we remember the tech team who are working so hard behind the scenes to deliver the solar cell: Hoorah for tech guys !!
- personally, I would still prefer not to see another acquisition just now; no distractions during the crucial cell negotiations!
- good to see some other points of view intelligently expressed reminding us holders that we are all speculating & not everyone is willing to take on that risk
- I think its established "beyond reasonable doubt" that there is a solar cell but not that it can be manufactured cost competitively
Hmmm yes those are thin film solar cells which are different in nature. Most thin film efforts have been failures.
My research and thoughts pretty much agree with yours. Have not found a company with a more realistic looking chance that can be invested in than SLTD. Most VC funded companies I have found also look to be years away from production - if they ever get there. One large unknown is what's happening in the r&d labs of existing cell fabricators.
Could be room in the market for the Korean solar cell as well; just have to hope ours will be competitive and there is not a patent battle that we lose.