If we assume that in 2015, STWA gets $200 million worth of orders and is able to ship, bill and get paid, then the EBIT would equal about $30 million. (assuming an EBIT of 15%).

If we assume that the market could tolerate a P/E ration of 20 then the price of this stock assuming a $180,000 share float would only be $2.00.

Can somebody else do this calculation and check/correct my numbers, please?

Sorry I mis-spoke in my last message. The value associated with a stock's price is measured by its price to earnings ratio. The price to earning s ratio is a number not a dollar amount as I mistakenly stated previously.
For STWA stock to have believable value its price to earnings ratio should be around 10. In technology companies that actually manufacture products, a decent profit margin is considered to be around 50%. So for 540 million shares of STWA stock to have a PE of 10 and presuming its profit margins are around 50% and presuming we need the stock price to stay at around $2.00 per share, then the dollar amount of that first purchase order needs to be what? Let's back calculate. Assume the order is for $540 million dollars. With a profit margin of 50% then our earnings would be $270 million. If we then divide the earnings by the float we get a ratio of 0.5. So with an order of $540 million our P/E ratio is 0.5 with the stock price at $2.00/ share. This would be an unbelievably wonderful P/E ratio.
If the P/E ratio was 10, which is still very good, and we received an order for $540 million the stock price would be at 20 X $2.00 = $40.00 per share.
Please keep in mind this would be the stock price after it had been split 3 to 1. If we did the calculation with the current 180 million shares outstanding then the price of the stock would be at 3 X $40/shr. or $120/shr.

So as a rule of thumb. For every $100 million of order volume our price per share should go up $22.22 dollars/shr. with the current 180 million shares outstanding.

I wouldn't swear by my numbers but I thought I would give it a try.

On the day the "order" is received by SWTA some interesting things will start to happen. Obviously, a bona fide order will be the ultimate verification of the AOT technology and of STWA as a real company. The stock should gap up to at least $2.00/share. This is a believable price as the all time best price the stock ever reached was $1.90 or so some two years ago right before the first Shareholder meeting. $2.00/ share also stands out as the minimum price necessary to qualify for up listing to NASDAQ. We now have an investment firm supposedly courting the large mutual funds but the catch 22 there is most of the ones that would be considered heavy hitters in the investment world are not allowed to invest in penny stocks. We need to be up listed to NASDAQ or the equivalent for the real heavy hitters to start investing.

So here's the other problem, on the day of the announcement of the purchase order there will be many people interested in buying the stock but maybe not so many willing to sell their stock. After all how many of the 180 miilion shares (float) are held by institutional investors and how much of it is held by private investors like those of us that post on this board? If many of the stock holders have been waiting 10 years or more to cash in they certainly won't sell when it goes to $2.00 per share.

So where is this stock going to come from? Well the dynamics of supply and demand dictate that if there are many people who wish to buy and few people that wish to sell, the price goes up. You also have to consider the possibility of a severe short squeeze that will also put pressure on the share price to appreciate.

So what will happen? My prediction is that this huge demand will drive the stock price higher than $2.00 a share simply due to the lack of shares available for sale. The price will go high enough for STWA management to then authorize a stock split along the following schedule keeping in mind that the price of the stock after the split still needs to be above $2.00/share to qualify for uplisting. When the stock reaches $4.00/share they split it 2 for 1 which will increase the float from $180 million shares to $360 million shares. If the stock quickly appreciates on the day of purchase announcement to $6.00/share then split the stock 3 for 1 increasing the float to 540 million shares which would be adequate for some healthy trading. To get to $6.00 per share the contract will have to show that revenues/profits will be such that the price to earnings ratio of the stock can be at least $1.00/share. So for this to happen that first contract will need to show a purchase of STWA equipment and technology somewhere in the neighborhood of $540 million dollars.

I am not a financial person by training so these numbers may have no basis in reality but hopefully it can start a conversation among those of us who better understand this kind of thing.

WOW, no volume today! What up? Could this be the calm before the storm?

Picked up 10,000 more shrs today @ .68.

Now dollar cost averaged entire holding down to .85 with all of it in a Roth IRA. When this goes all the profits will be tax-free.
Sweeeeeeet!!

Maybe someone with a better memory than mine can add some comments about the performance of the AOT in China. I think I remember seeing some kind of report that stated that the installed system on the Chinese test pipeline gave an increase in performance of something like 25 - 30% which, of course, compelled the Chinese oil company to try and steal the technology (with the blessing of the Chinese Government)thereby ending the test and the relationship.

Does anyone else recall reading that the results from those tests were also quite compelling?

Way to go Gregg!!!!

This is the kind of PR we have been waiting for. Short of announcing a contract it has provided much hope that the needs of the oil business are now focusing primarily on transportation issues. Something is going to be announced soon. OMG.

Kinder Morgan. Please buy us out. Anything north of $50.00/shr.
would be acceptable.

BTW can we do this before year's end? Thank you.

Zerosum,

Thank you for your message regarding the utility of the Stonegate
association. I guess I didn't fully understand what their contribution would be but if it is to get large mutual funds to begin investing in STWA then "Welcome aboard, Stonegate." Years ago there was talk regarding the relative low float of STWA stock. This is exasperated by the fact that large numbers of shares are held by long term investors that will not sell at these low values (like me). Do you see the possibility of a stock split to provide the liquidity needed to accommodate institutional investors? At one point I remember someone speculated a possible 1 to 5 split.
Your thoughts?

Its a catch-22 situation. Fund managers can or will not invest in penny stocks. ZERO can't up-list until its share price reaches $2.00 per share. It can't get to $2.00 per share until the big mutual funds start to invest. This would all turn on a dime if TC would just announce results.

Chalk this one up to collateral damage resulting in a sore loser and a frivolous lawsuit.

Remember, Gregg is a Navy Seal. Not an ex-Navy Seal because those things don't exist. Just like the USMC, if you make the grade its Semper fideles for life.

It seems to me from what I know that Navy Seals are trained to do one thing and one thing only and that is the successful completion of their mission to produce the desired result. Gregg is on a mission and its for all of us that are long in STWA. I have every faith that he will deliver the desired result if not this afternoon sometime soon.

Why have a recorded announcement after the market closes on a Monday? A normal quarterly report (10Q) could have simply been released and that would have been that. In fact its been like that for quite a while to the frustration of us all.

Today we get a recorded message. Why? My theory is that the message will have a direct effect on the stock price. A big one.
If Gregg delivered this live on a phone call can you imagine the kinds of questions he would face.

Gregg, please tell us how this will effect the stock price?
Gregg, please tell us how big the contract is and does this represent a template for future deals?

All the kinds of questions Gregg may not be allowed to answer.

So put it out there in a recording.

Why didn't they do it over the weekend?

Monday is the best day to make an announcement after the market closes. Now there will be four trading days for this message to produce the desired effect. Investors will also have an to think about their next move which will probably result in a halt in trading at the Open Tuesday morning while the thieving MM's decide where to price the Bid/Ask.

If there was nothing exciting to tell us I still think they would have benignly sent out the form 10K and that would have been it.

Let us pray.

9 years and counting. I still remember how I felt the morning it dipped to $.18/shr. Every morning at 6:30 AM PST I am at my computer to watch the open. Some days are good and others not so good. Looking for some more good ones. GLTA

All this manipulation of the share price can be viewed as a good thing. The people that are in the know are trying to squeeze out all of the weak hands to add to their holdings at the cheapest price possible. The drop in price recently is showing that we are close to a bottom which is in synch with the conference call.

Footer, I agree that up-listing to NASDAQ or some other exchange with better regulation would be a very good thing for ZERO share value. Question: what is the minimum acceptable share price that ZERO has to attain to qualify? I thought I saw someone write that it was $2.00/shr. Is that correct?

4starman So are you suggesting that rather than just send out the 10K at the end of the quarter with no message or PR like STWA has done for the past how many Quarters they have decided to hire a PR and financial team to hold a conference call to announce to everyone; Sorry but the TC deal has fallen through and we are going out of business and thanks for playing along Good night and Good bye REALLY?

Thanks to everybody for all of this very interesting information and calculations. I think the take away message is that pricing this product/system is a very complicated challenge and with the amount of money involved its even more so. My guess is that these discussions have been on-going for weeks and obviously they have to
be done in total secrecy. The good news is that it would seem that
a deal has been struck. Why else would there be a conference call
to discuss the Q2 financials? New financial team, new PR team, all put in place in preparation for Aug.11. Why?

AISI,

Thank you for your informative post regarding the increase in revenues the pipeline companies will enjoy by employing the AOT into there pipeline systems. Sano stated in an earlier reply to my e-mail that revenue royalties would be out of the question as the pipeline companies would simply buy out the company if these ongoing payments were required by STWA. This brings up two important questions. If Sano is correct that no pipeline company would make royalty payments over time against incremental revenue gains due to the AOT technology, then what would the value of the company be? $10.00 or 15.00 per share would be absolutely unacceptably low given the potential for future energy cost savings and increased flow revenues to be reaped by the pipeline companies due to AOT. The other course would be to factor these dollar amounts into the upfront cost of each AOT unit. This might make the pipeline companies bristle a bit at an asking price of between 20 and 30 million per unit.

Maybe the real answer would be to not sell AOT tecnnology but to lease only. That would be one good way to guarantee a continuing revenue stream for STWA going forward and to also allow the customer base to upgrade to the newer versions of AOT that STWA will offer as the technology is further developed.

The point is that future revenue from the pipeline companies as some percent of their cost savings and profit increase due to AOT
is THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THESE CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS and this opportunity should not be frittered away because truth is this first contract will be a precedent setting agreement that will dictate how this business is to be done in the future so Gregg, take your time and fight for the best deal you can get that includes royalty payments. EVERYTHING IS NEGOTIABLE.

August 11 will be a historic day one way or another. Another aspect of this whole thing is the idea of on-going royalty payments once the AOT units are installed. Yes, its marvelous that these things will cost millions of dollars at the time of purchase but how much income will they generate for STWA once they are online and operating. Maybe someone can research if they are royalty payments to the chemical companies that provide viscosity reducing additives for how much energy they save the pipeline companies for what it is they do. My guess is very little or none because of the costs involved with removing these chemical agents at the refinery stage.

Sure if the value of our stock goes to $10 or $15 a share would be sweet but so would quarterly dividend payments of $200 or $3K per share. My guess is it is this aspect of the contract that will be the most difficult for the Pipeline companies and STWA to come to agreement on and that may take some time.

Pandovine,

I am sure that the controversy surrounding the Keystone Pipeline is partially about the fact that it facilitates the business of fracking and tar sands mining. It must be remembered that Canada is going to develop this resource whether we like the mining process or not. In fact they already have. Its the transportation of the oil that is now being debated. TC has intimated or maybe even stated that should the US fail to approve the Keystone XL pipeline across its international border with Canada that they will seriously consider building the pipeline to some other port and Vancouver was named as a possible destination for shipment of oil to other more other more welcoming markets like China. The main issue I thought revolving around the Keystone XL pipeline was the fact that it would pass over the Ogallala aquifer which is the major source of fresh spring water for most of the central midwest. Yes this may seem a risky proposition but compared to transporting oil via rail car which has already proven itself to be a more risky and even deadly proposition pipelines would appear to be the safest option. Especially new pipelines constructed with the newest high tech materials to withstand ruptures but also equipped with new technology that enables them to operate at lower internal pressures that would greatly reduce the risk of structural failure i.e. the AOT. If you think the Keystone argument is about Fracking and the development of tar sands reserves whether in Alberta or the Bakken, I'm affraid that ship has already sailed.

Johnboy,

As stated in an early post, Obama will sign off on Keystone if he can mitigate the evironmentalists that are threatening him for being insensitive to their cause.
TC would benefit immediately by announcing the AOT on their pipelines as a way to greatly reduce the carbon footprint of transporting oil via pipeline and providing a safer and less deadly alternative to tank car rail service. Obama can then use all the benefits of the AOT to his own political advantage. "Yes America, it is of utmost strategic importance especially with the unrest with Russia and Ukraine and ISIS and all the rest in the Middle East. America needs to be oil independent asap and this is a way we can achieve those goals and also do it in an environmentally sensitive way. Its a win for enviromentalists, its a win for Transcanada and all of the other pipeline companies seeking to increase their operating efficiency, its a win for Obama because he can now tell the American people that he was only waiting for the correct solution before approving the Keystone pipeline project. AOT is an efficient and earth friendly way to transport oil. Once TC allows this message to be spread around maybe they'll get their damn Keystone project approved!!!

How's this for a scenario. TransCanada puts a 4-unit AOT on their pumping station in Udall KS. They test it for a couple of months and decide everything looks good and they want to negotiate a deal for more units for the entire length of the pipeline. Gregg already knows that Kinder Morgan has been chomping at the bit to get their hands on a unit ever since the PEG meeting in May but Gregg doesn't have one to give them. Gregg cordially asks TC to terminate their contract in Oct. in lieu of price concessions in the deal they are currently negotiating so that he can commit to a system for KM to be installed on their pipeline in Texas in early December. TC agrees but covers their current contract talks by saying tests are on-going etc. etc.

My bet is that TC has already given STWA a verbal purchase order for multiple units and are now working with STWA to try and get the logistics of when these additional systems will be built and who will be paying the upfront costs etc. etc.

Why would STWA want a conference call to announce Q2 Financials unless their was something else they wished to announce? Why is this conference call taking place immediately after the market closes on a Monday? All of you should know that whenever a large company has important information to announce that will directly effect the price of their stock they always do it after the close of the market on a Monday so that the stock can gap up first thing Tuesday morning at the open.

I think its a done deal and they are simply dotting the "i"s and crossing the "T"s over the next few days and writing the script for the presentation to get maximum reaction.

They have only given notice that the contract will end on Oct. 15, 2014. It doesn't end the day they gave notice. You are an idiot and I'm putting you on ignore as everybody else should do as well.

You are not even worth listening to.

Isn't the Q2 financial report due out soon? The quarter ended June 30 and July is almost over. Anyone care to speculate on the effect of this report?

Went to bed last night feeling like a kid on Christmas eve. Today was about as much fun as a root canal.
Very disappointed and depressed. Good volume but no stock price appreciation. Bummer.

I don't like the fact that Kinder Morgan will not be paying for the transfer or installation of the AOT at their site. IT also looks like they are getting the same $20K per month rental rate that TC had which is a downgrade if STWA has to pick up the expenses.

Now looking at the 8K it would appear that STWA wants to move the AOT from the TC site to a Kinder Morgan Site so they can evaluate the system. This transfer won't happen until 90 days from July 15 which puts that in Sept. sometime. The letter from TC sounds like they are OK with that as they have already gotten all the data they need and that the results are so good that they don't need to test the system anymore after Sept. 15. Yes I guess there should be some kind of substantial announcement regarding futures with Trans Canada.

So according to the statement in the 8K Trans Canada is basically saying we are giving 90 days notice to terminate the lease in Sept.

The reason is that they don't want to wait until the end of Sept. to successfully move forward with the project or something like that.

I think this is a positive thing.

Kinder-Morgan is also a huge company and a force in the oil industry. Would they be dumb enough to invite a "Scam company" to make a technical presentation at the PEG meeting they sponsored just a month or so ago?

So you are now saying that these two companies (KM and TC) that probably know more about transporting oil through a pipeline than anyone on the planet might have screwed the pooch on this one?

Fear can multiply doubt but facts are facts.

Alkaline, yes it would be folly to think that we have any real influence on decisions being made at 35 State St. but I met Gregg at the shareholders meeting two years ago and I got the impression that he truly cares about the image of his company. We have seen in the past that when the rumblings on this message board become particularly acrid that low and behold a Press Release miraculously appears to assuage all of our fears and trepidation. Coincidental timing? Maybe, but to be an owner of this stock for almost ten years one has to be almost an eternal optimist to keep from going round the bend as they say. Don't be a buzz kill for crying out loud.

JT. As painful as it has been to read all of your rantings and ravings about STWA's management and PR (or lack thereof)it looks like maybe it has paid off. If nothing else I think it shows that
someone in the company with some clout reads this message board.

The story of STWA is a very compelling yarn that hints at huge returns for those willing to (using your term) swallow the Kool-Aid.

I thinks today's announcements are very exciting and I think we will see some new press releases and other financial disclosures in the very near future.

The news from UDall KS has to be very good or else why partner with these financial and Public relations firms???

Go Gregg Go!!!

I can't believe some of you persist in asking for definitive estimations of what's going to happen in the next six months. My advice is to buy a crystal ball and start rubbing it with all your might. The answer will always be that nobody on the outside really knows and those on the inside can't talk about it. Those of us that have been in this stock for many years have learned to accept this and soldier on. You newcomers want all the answers
Served up on a silver platter. Hey, there are oly two sure things in life: death and taxes. Growing old ain't for sissies and neither is investing in STWA. Ya pays your money and ya takes your chances. Deal with it.

TC needs to announce the deal with STWA. The biggest problem Trans Canada now faces is transporting the oil from northern Canada to the refineries in Texas (or elsewhere). They are so desperate that they have even considered buying rail cars to get the job done. Shipping
crude by rail as we have already seen is a disaster waiting to happen. A half a dozen accidents have already occurred with many fatalities and huge environmental damage. Nice going, Warren Buffett, you evil, money grubbing SOB.

TC needs the Keystone XL pipeline more than anything in the world. Its the 500 pound gorilla in their boardroom. Approval of the treaty to allow the pipeline to pass through the US now sits on Obama's desk. The Republicans want it and most of the Democrats want it. It will provide jobs, tax revenue and cement an on-going partnership between Canada and the United States in the energy production business. It has enormous strategic implications as well. The biggest roadblock to the passage of the Keystone treaty is the fear of the environmental issues involved with the pipeline i.e. carbon footprint, fouling of the Ogallala aquifer should there be a breach in the line etc. etc. Politically it appears that Mr. Obama views passage of the Keystone treaty to be too politically damaging at this time to sign it.

Announcing the adoption of new technology to address these environmental concerns might just be the catalyst Obama needs to put the Keystone Pipeline in a favorable light for all. The carbon footprint will be reduced. The operational parameters will become less conducive to breaches and spillage. It will show America that Mr. Obama has done his homework to seek out a better way to address this issue and that better way is NEW technology.
Better still it is a win-win compromise for both sides of the Keystone argument.

Unfortunately, it doesn't do anybody any good if this exciting new solution is kept hidden from the public's view by the current NDA's.

Its simple. Trans Canada, if you want to get this Keystone Treaty off the desk of the President of the United States with a favorable signature of adoption, you need to give Mr. Obama a political answer to the environmental issues currently blocking his decision. Announce the new technology from STWA and publish the advantages it provides and you might just get that approval for the Keystone that you so desperately need. The sooner the better.

MJ,

Bumped the bid up to .729 and got filled. Now up to 150k shrs.

Money talks and Bullsh*t walks. We are now talking about now taking a nice walk to the bank. STWA train now leaving on track #1. All aboard. Trying to. Pick up another 10k shrs at .725 only got 1kso far.

Zero has just passed from the theoretical to the real. An idea does not transfer into a business until someone actually pays you cold, hard cash for whatever it is you make or do. We now have that cash and are now made real. This moment is like when a merchant tapes his first one dollar bill received on top on his cash register. IT'S A BIG DEAL.

How many times have we all watched a stock we own go down. We get nervous and sell. The next thing we
know the stock makes a huge move up. We kick ourselves for essentially being used. If there was an announcement involving some negative news re: the AOT 's performance at the TC station then we should all head for the door. So far no bad news.

I look at what's happening today as a positive thing. People that are in the know are shaking the tree
And raking up all the leaves that fall off the tree. I believe this is happening today because next week we will get a positive message and the stock will finally take off. Remember on every trade there is a buyer and a seller. The sellers are frightened shareholders and the buyers are the bottom feeders that are now sense that
are now moving in for the kill. DON'T SELL YOUR SHARES! YOU MAY REGRET IT TODAY! TOMORRROW AND THE REST OF YOUR LIFE.

The google earth image of the TC pumping station in Kansas now shows the AOT skid on the site.
This must be an older picture as it shows the system not hooked up yet.

FWIW.

will everyone please stop all this discussion on the form 4-k and the options. PLEASE.

Talk about beating a dead horse. MOVE ON!!!!!

Started with Zero in 2005 buying 40,000 shrs at $.40. Now have 140,000 shrs. Sold all my shares at $1.20 right after negative Seeking Alpha article and then bought back in at around $.75.

Just picked up 20 k shrs at .85. How can you not buy at this price?