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Still would like to see more activity on the CLR coffee roasting side.
New contract wins have been kind of sparse.
Sequentially revenues grew 15% from Q2. So if they do 10 to 15% in the December quarter, revenues should come in around 41 to 43 million dollars.
I think the high estimate for revenue in 2015 is around 179 million dollars.
But if they continue to grow at this rate it will be closer to 208 million dollars, and that's on the low end of my calculations.
A likely scenario after the qtrly report tonight is that the stock stays flat or moves lower.
The better the news, the worse the stock performs.
My expectations are low regarding a move higher this year.
Why would anything change?
I don't expect any super-duper numbers or market moving contract wins. Just more of the same apathy.
So I can't blame the long term holders for selling out of frustration.
Briskie said back in August or September, and I'm paraphrasing "the time is now".
I guess not.
Pretty sure I won't be proven wrong.
Also a good point.
I am not a financial analyst or stock expert.
But is there any way for Youngevity to get creative whereby Wallach could reduce his stake to 49% or less?
Sell his shares to a syndicate or groups of investors wanting to acccumulate blocks of shares in a private transaction?
Could Wallach retire 50% or more of his shares and return them to the corporate treasury? Thus reducing the total number of shares outstanding. (This would be the most shareholder friendly move if there is a provision for it.)
I don't know.
Would any of these be possible?
I think there is only one reason why the stock price is where it's at.
There is a group out there that thinks all MLM's are pyramid schemes and they should be shut down.
Research what is going on with Herbalife and Nuskin. Short sellers are all over those companies.
It all comes down to three letters. FTC.
Until we get some clarity concerning Herbalife and the FTC, YGYI will be in this trading range.
New regulations could potentially harm the MLM industry. A shut down of a big company like Herbalife would matter.
I personally don't think the whole industry as huge as it is, can be shut down, but it can be reregulated and that would put a damper on revenues and earnings.
It may be why Youngevity seems to be increasingly emphasizing the coffee market and is making new investments there.
They are also lucky that they are only beginning to scratch the surface with their international expansion.
So I think the stock is on hold until the above concerns are alleviated.
This is an all out war, and MLM's are fighting for their lives. I can't make my opinion any clearer than that.
I added cvsld to my watch list with Ameritrade and it shows up. Bid 11 and ask 30.
You're welcome.
Just trying to help out the Youngevity IR and PR teams.
The key is they should get great prices from the production of both plantations.
One from the one that they already own and the other that they have an option to buy.
Even with the plantation they do not own yet, they control the crop.
Plus they have the potential to do 60 million a year in revenues from the processing plant.
And we are not even talking about any increasing revenues at the coffee roaster in Miami.
They are in Dunkin doughnuts, and have tests going on with Kraft and Maxwell House.
And here is the kicker with this stock.
It's not the coffee division that will make most of the money.
It will be international direct selling which is getting underway this month. And we have not even scratched the surface there.
As far as the price of the stock. We all know by now that this is what is does.
It will continue to act this way until...it doesn't.
But on the other hand...Bad news in Brazil is good news for YGYI and CLR and their plantations in Nicaragua. The Youngevity green coffee division stands to make tons of money from the drought in Brazil.
Briskie talks about how Brazil controls coffee prices in his September 11th presentation. It is worth listening to again.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-06/coffee-advances-to-highest-since-january-2012-on-brazil.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a256d21a-4d3c-11e4-bf60-00144feab7de.html
CLR roasters is bidding on at least 14 million dollars in contracts with large supermarkets.
It sure would be nice to hear about a contract win. Or two.
Looking at some estimates for 2015, I think the high number for revenues out of the coffee division stands at around 30 million dollars, which would be about double 2014.
If the main point of this story is true,it's good news for HLF and companies similar to them.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2014/10/07/herbalife-execs-all-but-certain-ftc-wont-shut-down-company/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+foxbusiness%2Fallnews+%28Internal+-+All+News+-+Text%29
As we know CFO Dave Briskie was a buyer of YGYI during September and August. (96,000 shares)
I see also that Briskie's brother and mother were involved in the private placement offering.
Draw your own conclusions.
Seling those for a 12% gain?
I agree CLR and the coffee division is extremely important to Youngevity. But here is where I disagree. The growth will still come from direct selling.
The international market is where the real money will be made.
If done right, it won't take long to surpass the United States in total sales and be the major revenue contributor to the company.
International direct selling will far surpass the U.S. and any coffee revenue combined.
And I don't think it will take very long to do it.
The international direct selling market is what will make YGYI a billion dollar company eventually.
The simplest valuation method that's been described recently is the peer group valuation.
YGYI is trading at a discount to their peers.
If Youngevity were trading in-line with their peer group the stock would be valued at 51-54 cents per share based on 2015 projected revenue of 171 million dollars.
From what I am able to understand, the market is unsure if recent acquisitions will have the required organic growth to get them there.
They should do about 127 million in 2014.
If the compound annual growth rate gets them to $375 million by 2019, the PPS has to follow.
That is the only thing I can focus on now.
Focusing on the stock price today is a prescription for depression.
So you are amused?
Enjoying yourself?
This is "good times" for you?
Does the share price amuse you too?
I think Pumper had about 16-18 million shares at it's peak, so maybe he still has some left to sell?
Looks like your order was filled.
Good luck.
I forgot to note that if k-cup production is 50% booked by the time it comes on-line, that should generate at least another $8 million dollars in revenue through the first 6 months for CLR.
Go for it.
Conventions have nothing to do with the price of this stock.
Not significant enough to make any difference.
Not sure why you are making fun of those numbers. Youngevity is still relatively small and about 2% of active distributors attending a convention is very good.
(Relatively small when comparing similar companies with millions of distributors)
Plus they are limited by the size of the accommodations available at facility, and the costs involved with putting a convention on, so therefore they have to put a limit on the number of guests that can attend a costly undertaking like a national convention.
I was not comparing companies per se, I was more into the comparison of price targets by Seethru Equity and the mystery at how they arrive at such price targets.
Green coffee contracts signed in just 5 months so far amount to 8.5 million dollars, almost surpassing the 8.7 million dollars CLR generated from the roasted coffee division in all of 2013.
60 million dollars in potential revenue from the green coffee division alone does not sound like hype.
K-cups begin manufacture in the 1st quarter 2015 with a substantial amount of sales already under contract.
I am expecting k-cup sales to extremely well.
As Briskie noted at the Seethru Equity investor conference in New York, other direct sellers have approched them about manufacturing K-cups for them.
Those direct sellers according to Briskie were turned down.
If you are turning down sources of revenue, then expected demand should be enough to run at full capacity.
Other wise turning down potential sales is not good business practice.
So we should get a sampling of international revenues in Q4 although for only 2 months.
I would think the international divisions should be in full swing in Q1 2015.
The Q1 2015 report should be a record quarter, with the first sizeable international revenues included, plus k-cups from the coffee division also being a new revenue driver.
I would also think we will see even more revs from the green coffee processing plant.
We haven't seen the numbers yet from Q3 and Q4 2014, but the most interesting quarter should be Q1 2015 which probably won't be out until May next year.
And to re-emphasize a number that I am focused on is the green coffee distribution business and the potential to add $60,000,000 in revenue per year.
So looking even further out, I am curious to see how full year 2015 numbers will look at the green coffee division.
The only other thing I want to see right now are more coffee roasting contracts. Where are they?
A lot to look forward to.
Thanks.
I owned CVSL at one time.
I should have stuck with it longer and put more into it when I did own it.
Just sort of watching now to see how it performs.
Good Luck all.
Surprised this wasn't posted here. From Sept. 24th.
http://www.caesarsfinancial.com/todays-recommendation-cvsl/
Today’s Recommendation: CVSL
Action: Hold Long
Good morning members,
Today’s Recommendation: CVSL. Caesar’s Financial Daily Newsletter.
Being in this business for almost 10 years now – I’ve seen all sorts of investment opportunities and worked with all kinds of investors…
I’ve worked with retail investors, venture capitalists and even friends…
But venture capitalists (VCs) in particular are very interesting people.
VCs seek companies that they hope will be profitable in the short-term. They put up the seed money. Cash out first. And receive residuals…
Nothing wrong with good ole American capitalism.
But I’ve also never talked with a VC who is satisfied with just a quick buck. They all (well most of them anyways) want to be part of a great company. Something that can bear fruit for many years to come – residuals, baby!
For many VCs the ultimate goal is to take a company public in the Over-The-Counter (OTC) market and, over time, that company becomes so successful, that they get invited to join one of the major exchanges – that’s the surest sign that you have a true winner on your hands.
Now as a retail investor this is particularly interesting…
Because if you invest early enough, when the stock is relatively young and inexpensive (under a dollar), then you’re in for what could be a very profitable ride. Meaning a stock that gets listed on a major exchange is trading for a few dollars – a big step up from where they started.
Well…
One such company has been on our radar and we wanted to introduce you to it today and think it’s a one to keep on your watch list.
The company is CVSL Inc. (CVSL).
What caught our attention with CVSL isn’t so much what they do – which is running and acquiring companies, primarily in the direct-selling business - but more because they’ve grown their revenues substantially over the past year…
From 2012 to 2013 their revenues grew from $930,000 to $64,711,000 – that’s an amazing feat of growth – surging 6,858%.
This year alone shares have gone from fifty cents to sitting around a dollar today.
Now that’s impressive…
But it gets better…
Remember when I was talking about graduating from a microcap stock on the OTC market to a major exchange – well CVSL is about to become a member of the NYSE!
Check out the press release: “CVSL Receives Notification on Authorization For NYSE MKT Listing.”
What’s really exciting about that is – the shares that are trading for a dollar today, but to meet NYSE listing requirements, should be trading for around $3 when they join the major New York exchange. (View NYSE listing requirements HERE)
We think that CVSL is a good prospect in the long-term here as we wait for news of their listing on the NYSE. In the meantime, expect shares to continue to climb higher towards that $3 target soon!
You may want to consider grabbing some now… a 200% short term gain is a gift many would kill for!
Have a profitable day!
50,000 shares is about 30% of the average daily volume.
That is hard to cover profitably if the buying interest continues.
Plus that short postion was probably taken out in the mid to upper 20's.
So it would need to go to the low 20's or worse for any significant profit.
Just a puzzling strategy in my opinion at this stage in the company's growth.
But maybe they will do ok. It's not like YGYI has been any sort of rocket.
Short intersest has increased.
It went from 5900 shares Aug 29th to 54,000 on Sept. 15th.
Could some of the selling yesterday be more shorting?
It will be interesting to see what the numbers are next month.
Speaking of coffee.
SeeThru Equity, the "research firm" with a 49 cent price target on YGYI, has a 64 cent price target on JAMN, (marley coffee).
Sure YGYI has about 3 times as many shares outstanding as JAMN.
But Youngevity's revenue will be about 10 times greater than JAMN next year.
JAMN is guiding for only 15 million dollars in revenue in 2015.
YGYI should produce about 127 million in revenue this year and is forecast to do about 171 million in 2015.
Looks to me like most of the buying and selling early this morning were retail investors.
Have to believe some of the sellers were sitting on 20 to 30 percent gains since Briskie began buying in August.
A tell-tale sign that I was told once, is that institutional investors often get involved in a stock later in the day.
They are trying to get a feel for the particular market in a stock and do not want to be early buyers and then see the price go lower later in the trading day.
Not saying there are or will be institutions looking at YGYI, but maybe larger well-heeled buyers will take note and purchase for their personal account.
But we still have some resistance to overcome here in the lower 30's before this can move higher anytime soon.
Been watching CVSl, the John Rochon company with a similar business plan except for the coffee division which is unique to Youngevity.
If YGYI had the same market cap as CVSL, YGYI would be trading at about $1.25 right now.
Yeah your're right. But I was thinking a little further down the road, but not that far down.
I think they can hit some big numbers on the coffee side in a couple of years and the market is not giving them credit for it.
It will take an expansion, but the way they are running the business now, it's not impossible to think they can significantly catch up to the direct selling side of the business.
I am wondering when the market will start to value YGYI on future growth, not just past or present numbers.
My thinking the company may be in line for a valuation significantly higher than today.
What that number will be, I don't know. But it could happen in the next quarter or two.
Maybe some day we will wake up and on the wires will be an announcement for single 20 million dollar coffee contract.
CLR Roasters, LLC (YGYI) Inks $2 Million Dollars in New Contracts for its Green Coffee Distribution Business
Recently Launched Green Coffee Sales Division is Exceeding Sales Expectations
SAN DIEGO, Sep 22, 2014 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Youngevity International, Inc. (OTCQX: YGYI) (www.YGYI.com), a global direct marketer of nutritional and lifestyle products and vertically integrated producer of gourmet coffees for the commercial, retail and direct sales channels, announced today that the Green Coffee Sales Division of its wholly owned subsidiary, CLR Roasters, has procured several new contracts for its strictly shade grown, high grown, certified organic, Arabica Green Coffee, which are expected to generate $2 million dollars in gross revenue for the company's recently launched, Green Coffee distribution business.
CLR Roasters recently acquired its own plantation in Nicaragua, gaining access to 900-acres of a prime coffee growing region of Central America that is Rainforest Alliance Certified(TM) and Fair Trade Certified(TM). Additionally, it acquired an 18-acre green coffee processing plant in Matagalpa, Nicaragua. CLR Roasters is utilizing and leveraging these assets to launch its Green Coffee distribution business. These latest contracts are in place to begin generating revenue in October of this year.
"We are very enthusiastic about the significant success we have experienced with the revenue being generated from our newly launched Green Coffee sales division," said Ernesto Aguila, President of CLR Roasters. "Our coffee sales are already exceeding our expectations and we anticipate maintaining the impressive revenue growth that we delivered in the second quarter."
"We are extremely pleased with the strategic investments that we have made to grow our Green Coffee business," added Dave Briskie, CFO of Youngevity. "The revenue generation potential for our newly launched Green Coffee sales division is expected to surpass CLR's total revenue contribution for 2013. This is a tremendous growth rate and the Green Coffee industry is just beginning to learn about our high-quality Green Coffees coming out of Nicaragua and CLR Roasters' field to cup capabilities. We believe CLR's shade grown, high grown, certified organic, Green Coffee will continue to gain wider acceptance as large industry consumers seek sources for quality, certified organic, Arabica Green Coffee from Central America."
About Youngevity International, Inc.
Youngevity International Inc., (OTCQX: YGYI) (www.YGYI.com) is a fast-growing, innovative, multi-dimensional company that offers a wide range of consumer products and services, primarily through person-to-person selling relationships that comprise a "network of networks." The Company also is a vertically-integrated producer of the finest coffees for the commercial, retail and direct sales channels, and has launched a new Green Coffee sales division to leverage its recently acquired coffee plantation and Green Coffee processing plant in Nicaragua. The Company was formed after the merger of Youngevity Essential Life Sciences (www.youngevity.com) and Javalution Coffee Company in the summer of 2011, and changed its name to Youngevity International Inc. from AL International, Inc. in July 2013.
I agree.
They now seem to have the pieces in place for some growth and foundation they can work off of.
They just have to execute and start to turn some profits as revenues start to expand.
The international sector will be huge in 2015 if they get off to a good start.
Well the ask is over 30 cents now.
Volume of 300,000 shares in the first hour.
But we've been disappointed before.
Lets see where this takes us.
I think Briskie's buys set the tone for the stock recently just before his New York presentation.
When the CFO buys you have to pay attention.