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Foot, well the $NAUD closed above the 50dma. I am still thinking a pull back from the $NDX 200dma and then more up? $USD not quite 76, Yen falling. I think you need to redo the yen chart to show where next line of support is. Just from an Eyeball on a daily 1 year next support for the yen is around 89?
BTW - have a good weekend everyone.
Farooq, we shall see since we are at a pretty decent resistance point. I am a cautious bull. I've paid the piper in the past for not trading the signals as they are presented so this year I have made a concerted effort to tune out the noise. Anyhow, I posted an article a couple days ago about the pains of a new bull market. While I am not that bullish, the trend has been up since around 7/16. This afternoon, I sold 1/2 my QLD position using Leftyg's renko system on the QLD w/ 1.75 pt/bricks. His system has really helped tune out the noise since it is all based on price. QLD has been up $7 since I entered, but I think there will be a pull back and will look to re-enter on the dips if we fail to hold the 200dma. I will be buying any pull back up to 75.25. Anything lower spells a reversal on the renko QLD chart.
(Edit the only negative about Renko is the whips, but lefty and I have been sort of talking and trying to figure out ways to avoid whips.)
That QID trade that I did for a ST scalp was definitely a bone headed move. I have been noticing that when we are in a downtrend, any move up is only 1/2 to 2/3 of what you'd think, and on an uptrend, corrections are short and truncated moving only 1/2 to 2/3 as well on the retrace.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31331104
Lefty, Ugh... I just couldn't resist. Renko QLD 1.75pts/brick hit the 4th brick. I just sold 1/2 my position. I know that's not part of the rules with trend trading but my finger was getting really itchy especially with us pounding on $NDX's 200dma.
So long as this renko trend continues, I'll be looking to reload on any pull back for the QLDs. I am holding my MVVs though since $MIDs have some catching up to do. We just need it to stay above 67.50.
Gleno, it looks like on the 10min QQQQ charts that we are currently backtesting the 46.82ish level from the last 2 1/2 days.
Thanks, I'm going to study this chart a little more in detail.
Lefty, thanks for your input, I have been long MVV as well even though we have been whipping around because of the cross of the MACD on the daily MVV candlestick charts. If MVV can close above 67.50 today we'll get a white brick up.
$MID appears weaker than the other 4 indexes. Normally it's one of the stronger ones. So I think if we really rally, MID has a lot of catching up to do. If you look at the DOW, SPX, NDX and RUT, especially NDX and RUT this go around, they have been strong and in a good trend up. I am trying with all my might to resist cashing in on my QLDs but I see the 200dma on the $NDX as tough resistance for this 1st go around/1st push up. May be I will sell half. Renko will print a 4th brick up on QLDs if we close at 78.75 or higher today. Currently 78.05.
LOL... and I was thinking of getting some gold yesterday. Good thing I changed my mind. Well if the Nasdaq closes near it's highs today, your $NAUD chart won't be so naughty and will have a good chance of crossing that 50dma. Although it appears the last few times it crossed the 50dma, there was a correction back down to the mid-BB and then it went back up to re-cross the 50.
Gleno, good call. Gap is now closed finally on the $NDX. Now they looks to be trying to hit the 200dma $NDX ~1921.
Gleno, Institutional Index is green now, although it is still within the ascending triangle. I don't know $NDX is just going nuts. I personally thought $NDX would correct some but after seeing the dollar rally and the yen/crude going down late last night it didn't seem likely. I still think they will gun for the gap today and possibly tag 1921 the 200dma which could then signal a reversal?
Foot, USD is really starting to head up. First resistance will be 76 and then 78. That zone looks tough to break so I guess we will see. But the yen is dropping like a rock. Crude is down 2.25. I guess they want that $NDX gap 1910ish sooner rather than later. Although it will be interesting to see what happens at the 200dma at 1921.
[chart]quotes.ino.com/chart/history.gif?s=NYMEX_CL.U08.E&t=f&w=15&a=50&v=d6>
The $USD is rallying and is up .45 to 75 overnight. Might mean Crude goes down and Yen goes down which means market rallies? Now I am really confused. Good thing I am out short term. I think I will sit back and see what happens the next 2-3 days.
Also... Before the bell tomorrow Beazer Homes and Fannie Mae reports. http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20080808.html
Last trade 75.008 Change +0.454 (+0.61%)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d12
Gleno, I am thinking tomorrow and Monday are probably down days. The last couple reversals took 2-3 days to complete, and then reversed. So may be more up mid next week until the end of OE. I'll have to see just how far we retrace to buy the dips.
If you look at today's daily charts on QQQQ (a little fat for a DOJI), QLD and $NDX it formed a bearish doji. QID formed a bullish DOJI. Prices yesterday ramped with a large white candle. Today we have an inverted DOJI which is a good indicator of a reversal.
"The long white candles before these doji showed that the bulls were in control. But the appearance of the doji hinted that the bulls had lost control. These doji confirmed a resistance area near $1.60. This resistance is based on the fact that there was a major support area throughout 1991 near $1.60. Based on the technical axiom that old support becomes resistance, the prior $1.60 sup- port area became resistance in late 1992 and throughout 1993. That the doji near $1.60 confirmed this resistance level shows how easily the candles can be melded with Western technical tools."
http://www.candlecharts.com/about-press-article8.html
Lefty, yeah I hate whips too. I am just curious, are you waiting for the MVV whip to resolve by using your weekly renko chart as confirmation or are you taking the down signal w/ the 1.5pt/brick?
TIA.
MrNatural, LOL... Is cramer crying right now/today? Hehe... ST - I think we correct back to at least NDX 1863/QQQQ 45.89, that breakout point. We'll have to see what happens there. I am interim term bullish so I am expecting that line to hold. I still think that $NDX gap needs to be closed and that we will tag the 200dma which is ~1925.
BTW - I haven't seen Cramer in a while, but that is scary I thought he was always a good contrain indicator
Wow... just checking back in. Broke to new highs and then a hard reversal. The daily candle looks bad. It looks like an inverted hammer which tends to be bearish reversal but needs confirmation tomorrow. In the past when that candle formed we went down for 2-3 days which would probably coincide with the 45.89 area that Blasher mentioned earlier.
Blasher, yeah you're right I should've drawn that line a bit lower since it hits more points which equates to $NDX ~1863. Gotta go to work now.
LOL Blasher... I think it's from the school of hardknocks and the many lumps in the head. My biggest problem is still formulating the proper exit strategy on the 5min/15min time frame. 60min, Daily and weekly are a lot easier.
BTW - test of this neckline on the daily. Very important for both bulls and bears.
Leftyg, the only problem going out on the weekly is that there's even more delay. But it is safer then getting whipped. The only reason I stayed in on MVV during the whipping was because I watched the MACD on a basic daily candlestick chart which is still crossed up. QLD would've been whipped at 1.5pts but I use 1.75, and again use the Daily MACD to confirm on a regular candlestick chart. I don't know if that is a good idea to use the candlestick chart as confirmation on whether to stay in. Let me know what you think.
Gleno, watch the lower channel on the 5min chart. A break of that and down she goes. (Edit QQQQ almost there in filling the gap. Is that close enough? Previous close 46.63 HoD 46.59. Also, it looks like upward channel just broke on the 10:30 5min bar.)
Gleno, you got in a lot lower than me and yesterday I knew after that reversal and breakout of the downward 5min channel that I wouldn't make a dime on that trade. I bought QID a few mins after the open yesterday at $43. Sold today for a loss at 42.20. So now that I am out you are probably gonna do well on that trade.
It was one of those take the lump now or take more lumps in the head later, and learn from my lesson.
Yesterday, there was a pullback so Scamman's rule worked albeit a more shallow retrace than I thought, and I should've exited when I saw the break of the downward channel on the QQQQs around the 11:10 bar.
Gleno, I just took my lump on the head this morning on QID. Out with a -.80 loss. QQQQ on the 5 mins just got 3 green bars. They are just buying the dips so far.
LOL... Gleno. ST is that it for the downside?
Safe Haven Article - Interesting: The Birth Pains of a New Bull Market
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10920.htm
"Here's what the "smart money" options traders have been doing in the OEX options since June. While the public was panicking, the cool-headed pros were getting into a net long position in the S&P 100 options. This indicator has been one of the most reliable ones for pegging interim tops and bottoms, and while it can't be used to pinpoint turning points in the very short term, it has proven exceptionally useful for heralding the interim up and down moves in the broad market. This time appears to be no exception as the net long position among smart money options traders is pointing to a reversal of this year's market woes."
Didn't someone mention something about the S&P Oscillator a few months back?
"As you can see, this is the most "oversold" the S&P has been on a longer-term basis since the bear market low in early 2003. This is a bullish consideration for the months ahead, although it is not a pin-point entry and exit indicator. It can't call a bottom in and of itself but it can show you when the market internals are favorable for buying or selling. This indicator is showing that market internals are more favorable for buying stocks from an intermediate term standpoint.
The decline the U.S. stock market has had to suffer through was necessary to clear the way for the final "blow off" phase of the 2003-2009 bull market. This final advance is expected as the 6-year cycle bottoms and the 10-year cycle enters its final year of ascent. The "birthing pains" are nearly over and soon we'll have a new bouncing baby bull on our hands."
Interim Term - Yen has broken down, $NAUD is about to cross the 50ma, and $CPC still has room to go down before a top is in. This looks good for people who are long. $NDXA50R still has more room for up, the top is typically around ~80.
Leftyg, QLD using 1.75 pts/brick just printed a 3rd brick up. Thanks again for sharing your system. I'm using it to trade a 1/3 of my overall portfolio.
I should've remembered your advice; currently taking a lump right now on a Short-term bad counter-trend QID position that I opened today. Looking for a pull-back to exit out of that and to buy/go long on the dips.
BTW - MVV using 1.5pts/brick was just shy of reprinting a white brick at 67.50.
Great $NDX 60min chart by Teaparty showing how overbought things are. There's no doubt they are gunning for that $NDX gap so it is only a matter of time. $COMPX already closed the gap. $NDX has been trailing. Anyhow, I'm looking for a pull back to take my lump on the QID trade. Dow double top?? For ST trades, look for pullbacks to get in long.
I am glad at least this QID position was only 1/4. So far, gave back all my gains from the QLD trade yesterday.
Gleno, that $NDX 1915ish gap magnet is getting closer and closer, it may get tagged today or early tomorrow at this rate.
Gleno, another slim jim forming on the 5min chart for the past 45 mins. I gotta get back to work... Well check in before the close. Could be an El Crapo for shorts.
Well... We got the famous triple cross on the $NDX 60min. That's very bullish signaling a definite trend change. Didn't hold the 1st time but it looks pretty good the 2nd go around. Looking for a pullback to unload QID.
Yeah definitely, the momo is up. But we look to be very overbought ST but that doesn't mean we can't get more overbought. May be that was it with the fed day pattern down move.
Just curious do you trade other time frames besides the 5min/15min?
I may have to look for an exit strategy soon and just take the lump on the QID trade.
ST-we're overbought
MT-Is the other time frame that I trade w/ Renko (lefty's system) and we're definitely in an uptrend for that. Close above 75.25 today on the QLD, and the 2nd white brick will be added to the chart. We would then need a reversal to 71.75 for a red brick to form since I am using 1.75 pts/brick.
euterpe1, nice trades.
I think we may have formed a higher low on the QQQQs at the 11:00 5 min bar. On the 5min charts, it looks like the QQQQs is trying to break out of that downtrend channel. (Edit I don't plan on holding this short for more than a day. Personally, I think the boys wants to take it up into OE and fill the $NDX gap at 1915.)
I am thinking we backtest the 60min 200dma on the $NDX @ 1836 which is QQQQ 45.16 which is also the ~50% retrace for the past 3 days on the 15min chart.
Gleno, is the institutional 60min chart from your guru the same as this chart below with the $XII?
http://stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Anyone else short qqqqs for a short term trade? (Scamman's day after fed pattern?) I bought some QID at the open today.
Recap of FOMC announcement. Scamman rules:
So we got the up-down-up. On the 1min $NDX chart
1) Up trend started around 14:14-14:15
2) Down trend started around 14:17
3) Up trend started back up around 14:23
The FOMC pattern peters out normally around 14:30-14:40. This one petered out around the 14:47 bar where it slimjimed and then a pop up into close, which is another scamman rule, slimjims often break in the direction of the trend.
Futures are currently up. +9 on the NDX. I think we do a gap and crap tomorrow per Scamman's other rule. Today we went up into the close which means tomorrow we trade opposite of today's closing trend which for tomorrow means we go down.
But... I think this time unlike the June FOMC announcement, we may retrace a little/consolidate and then pop up to fill the 1915 gap. This is OE after all, but I think eventually, the boys will take it up. Take a look at the March 18 and April 30 FOMC announcements as examples.
Pattern looks to be Up down Up right now. Look at the 14:14-14:15 bar we are going up on the 1min. (Edit now looks like we are starting to head down. Take a look at the 14:19 bar on the 1 min charts.)
14:23 - we should start to see an uptick in the next few minutes and the FOMC pattern should be complete by 14:30-14:40ish.
BTW - today's close will dictate tomorrow's action. If we close UP then we go down tomorrow and vice versa. Closing down means up tomorrow.
I have one post left so will wait til Close of day.
Strange we just broke out of the QQQQ slimjim pre-FOMC announcement. Not at all typical of the past announcements.
The announcement is at 14:15 EST.
US - FOMC Meeting Announcement (Jul , 2008) 2:15 PM Jul , 2008
http://money.cnn.com/data/irc/
OT - euterpe1, I didn't mean my previous message in a bad way. You are right. I got pretty close to my target so I should take the money and run which now I am glad I did and can just check back in at 2:15 and the close to figure out what to do about tomorrow.
Last week I let a +5 go to 0 this week and then back up to a +3 because I got greedy and tried to squeeze a couple more nickles out and only sold 1/2 a position instead of the entire position.
So that's a good point 95% of the goal is good enough. The second good point that you made is since we have no clue which way it's gonna go it's like Prussian roulette/gambling, so honestly, thanks for the advice.
Alright, you convinced me not to be so greedy... I just got out 73.26 on the latest burn up. BTW anyone gonna try a straddle for the up-down-up or the down-up-down move?