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Yep, I wish the milestones were spread out more than they appear to be.
We may not get the pop that we want, and then there will be nothing left to sustain it. Would have liked them announced about one every week or one every two weeks.
Regardless, December "should" be a good month fur us.
Thanks Twiz... I thought that they had.
But I'm curious if we'll get an updated price target from them after they digest all that will be happening in December?
It would be great to see some new analysts/firms start to initiate coverage too. That would provide a lot of additional validation and would be a boon to the PPS.
See below.
If we get a partnership in December and just a $10M upfront payment (plus additional milestone payments) the PPS should immediately "double" in my opinion... Maybe even more, depending on the partnership.
Let's get the data release and partnership announcement. That's what we're all waiting for!
Though it had little impact on small or mid-cap equities, Pfizer (PFE) on Monday announced that it's paying $850 million and up to $2 billion in potential milestones to partner with Germany’s Merck KGaA on the anti-PD-L1, MSB0010718C. The two will also collaborate on advancing Pfizer’s own anti-PD-1 antibody into clinical testing.
What makes this announcement noteworthy is the sheer size of Pfizer's upfront payment, which puts this partnership at the top of the list for biggest upfront cash outlays in biotech. Celgene (CELG) claimed the top spot earlier this year with its $700 million payment to Nogra Pharma in exchange for rights to GED-0301, a drug for gastrointestinal indications. Additionally, the pharmaceutical company is playing catchup in immuno-oncology, a space led by Bristol Myer’s (BMY) anti-PD1 nivolumab and Merck’s (MRK) pembrolizumab. In the anti-PD-L1 space, Roche-Genentech (RHHBY) and AstraZeneca (AZN) currently lead with MPDL3280A and MEDI4736.
Does Maxim have a price target for us?
Here is how I am going to grade the PPS performance after the (5) milestones have been met and corresponding PRs have been published:
0.64 and below = F
0.65 to 0.79 = D
0.80 to 0.94 = C
0.95 to 1.09 = B
1.10 and up = A
Does this scale align with any of your expectations? If not, how would you alter it?
I agree. I've maintained all along that the "real" run-up would start right after the Thanksgiving weekend.
It could happen sooner or later, but I'm still calling December 11th the "magic date" on which a partnership is announced.
Don't worry, it's just a wild guess. :)
Go ONCS!
Sal, I'd love to be wrong, too. :)
I think a partnership will propel us near $1/share (maybe even a bit over), but I don't believe the PPS will have staying power at that level without other catalysts (e.g. a cash infusion). A cash infusion is a guaranteed revenue stream and is about the best long-term validation one can get from a partnership. Sadly, at the end of the day, the f-ing MMs are in control of the pricing. Just my 0.02.
Let's all hope for the best. :)
I've said all along that a partnership with Merck makes the most sense, due to Dr. Pierce's relationship with them and his creation of the MK-3475 drug. In addition, our legal counsel was hired from Merck.
So, while it makes perfect sense for our partner to be Merck, stranger things have happened and it might not be them at all. We'll know soon enough, I suspect.
Whoever it is, I sincerely hope they give us a cash infusion similar to what INO received. Just giving us the drug isn't nearly as powerful and won't propel the stock above $1/share.
Agreed. It does, as long as we break through 0.60 in advance of the Melanoma Bridge conference in early December.
Right now I'm only concerned with the next 6 weeks and the nice Christmas that many of us will be having! :)
Nice analysis.
If the upcoming catalysts turn out the way many of us think, then the downtrend will be taken out and we'll surge higher.
If not, you'll probably see some folks leave the room.
Isn't breaking through the high 0.50s and hitting and holding 0.60 essentially the same thing?
We've already hit 0.59 numerous times recently. But we've yet to break through. I'd still maintain that 0.60 has been the recent resistance level.
The "launch pad" will likely be in the middle-to-upper 0.50s.
Don't expect more than that.
After all, it's the end game (unwinding your position) which really matters the most.
I couldn't agree more.
If the stock is not above $1 by EOY (or in January), then a reverse split is necessary, IMHO, in order to get proper exposure for the company.
I'd recommend a minimum of 1:3 and a maximum of 1:10 for a RS. If ONCS is able to get the share price above certain thresholds that not only enables institutional investors, but also even more retail investors as they will be able to buy on margin.
Just my .02.
People need time to digest what they've just learned.
And they may not have the authority to purchase OTC shares or shares in general. Someone else in their company probably does that.
We're laying the seeds which will come to fruition over time.
I repeat--over time. :)
No offense should be taken.
Fur--you've been a tremendous resource to the board and to those who have invested in ONCS. We're indebted to all of the due diligence that you've done and for the insight which you have provided.
A personal, "thank you very much!"
This is where we will possibly determine if there are other relevant indications (cancers) which can be treated with this approach.
Awesome!
That "someone else" was me. :)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=108337943
Really, this is the way most other biotechs do it. The CEO handles the high points, the Chief Science Officer handles the technical details, the CFO handles the financial details, etc.
ONCS is getting large enough and complex enough that this is how they should be operating. Seriously!
Unfortunately, dilution is a necessary evil for companies like ONCS.
The question is when, how much, and how it will be perceived in the markets.
INO now a competitor in Melanoma?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/inovio-pharmaceuticals-melanoma-dna-immunotherapy-130000452.html
But still way behind us bringing something to market.
He should do it the way other CEOs do.
Introduce the high points and let Dr. Pierce handle the rest.
It really needs to be a corporate goal for next year.
It's that important, IMHO.
Sustaining the PPS above $1 and uplisting to NASDAQ both need to occur in 2015 in my opinion.
Agreed.
Anyone remember the BASF ads from the 90s?
This is the analogy I use when trying to explain what ONCS does:
This sounds too conspiracy leaning, but is it possible that big pharma has some sort of influence over the market makers?
Why can't the markets simply be driven by "real" supply and demand?
Or what that too introduce corruption, but in a different way?
A pipe dream, I'm sure.
And I was astonished to see more than $200M in my Scottrade account for a brief moment!
I knew something had to be wrong, but I have to admit my heart jumped for a moment. (And I have a new heart, transplanted in July of this year!)
Too funny!
MMs not letting it cross 0.59 today?
And you risked nothing by writing that. :)
Will we break through the 200 DMA and push above 0.60 today?
Place your bets now. :)
Are you implying one last "bear raid" in early December? :)
It very well could happen and provide a great last minute buying opportunity before the big catalysts hit.
Thoughts?
Tu and Punit are apparently best friends.
I wonder how they met?
I thought his enthusiasm was great. The presentation was just average, however. Too much fluff.
They better "get the deal done soon," or they'll miss the boat.
And I'd like to wake-up and see my account up 50% in a single day, too.
But I'm a realist and know that anything can happen. But having said that, the preponderance of DD suggests that we are going MUCH higher before EOY.
Just be patient awhile longer, and you'll be fine. :)
As long as you remember that "the house always wins," you'll be fine.
There will ALWAYS be manipulation in markets. And there will ALWAYS be someone who has more perfect information than the rest of us.
However, at the end of the day, the upcoming catalysts WILL move the stock higher in a more sustainable way. Just be patient for about another month, and I bet you will be smiling.
Enjoy the weekend and forget about ONCS for 48 hours. Doctor's orders! :)
Guys, please cease and desist all of diatribe and ad hominem personal attacks.
You're both smart, and in many cases are saying the same thing, but not communicating it well.
Let's drop the petty arguments and move on to more fruitful use of our time. Please?
Where is Fur when we need him? :)
More on the "up-tick" rule:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uptick_rule
The revocation of the "up-tick" rule in 2007 has a lot to do with all of the corruption on Wall Street.
It has essentially turned the markets into "one big casino."
The timing of the revocation coincided with the height of the housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis. (Coincidence? Maybe.) Without a doubt, many folks have made BILLIONS shorting stocks with impunity since then.
"American Greed," at it's finest...