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<< As we wait for Peregrine to execute it's business plan >>
What business plan? This management has done absolutely nothing and wasted a lot of shareholder money by doing ATMs at the worst possible time. If Bavi makes it on the end it will not be because of King and company, it will be all Thorpe's work.
<< Why would you spend money on a stock when you can get beneficial ownership of 700,000 shares for free? >>
This is very weak argument. You put your money where your mouth is. Look at some other biotech stocks where management bought on the open market in addition to the options they get for free.
<< That's silly. I wouldn't. >>
Well, I would if I were an insider and really believe in my company future. Secondly, insider purchase would lift share price which is especially important before doing ATM. They are supposed to protect shareholders interests. Bad and irresponsible management - period.
By their action they make it look like Bavi doesn't work, and then they expect to partner. If I were a potential partner I would ask them why they don't have any personal money invested in this great drug.
Take 5 days Bollinger, it shows different picture
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PPHM&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=m50%2Cb%2Cp&a=v%2Cm26-12-9%2Cf14%2Cr14&c=
You always short at the wrong time, it will probably go up now. Where were you a few days ago when it was trading at $1.50+? That was the time to short, PPS has been stuck in 1.3 to 1.5 trading range for more than two months.
I just bought some trading shares at 1.35 to replenish the ones that got called away at $1.50 on Apr OPEX day. The bad thing is that nobody wants to buy the $1.5 May calls - confidence level in the upside for this stock is very low right now.
Good luck with your short.
<< What happened to the partners who they were in talks with while designing the trial? >>
Management has no credibility, that's what happened. How many shares have SK and company bought risking their own money? Insider buying on the open market would, at this point, lift the share price considerably. They should have bought before doing ATM. Conversely the lack of insider buying at this low price is one of the biggest reasons the PPS is where it is. If management doesn't believe in it enough to put some of their money on the line why would the investors?
<< How else do you find the sweet spot/indication/combination? >>
That last p1 for breast cancer we really don't need. Another p2 for different breast cancer finished a while back with positive results and they elected to do nothing with it. Indications are here for NSCLC and should proceed with it instead of sandbagging. They seem to be content to draw large salaries and do p1, p2 and ATMs forever. Bad management.
<< launching bavi is not their primary objective >>
<< THE STREET DOES NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING COMING OUT OF PPHM'S MOUTH >>
I am beginning to wonder, it looks that way on both points. Too many p1 and p2 trials, no p3, no partnership, no transparency, fat compensation for the brass without results etc. Carboat just might be right.
And another thing - PPS expectations are way down, option premiums are really low. Daily volume has been going down, no stock buyers and no option buyers.
<< What do you think the value of pphm will be if the FDA approves Bavi for ph III 2nd line lung, 1st line comes in at 15-20 months MOS, Bavi 2nd line is partnered, liver is partnered, pancreatic results based on subgroup ( or just similar ECOG) shows a better than Abraxane MOS (combination with Abrax to follow), etc? >>
This would be the best case scenario, north of 10 bucks with a potential to go much higher toward the end of p3 trials.
Let's look at the worst case now:
FDA doesn't approve p3 and wants another p2. First line comes in at 10 months or less and pancreatic subgroup is slightly better than Abraxane but with only a few patients in that group - not enough to have any statistical value. PPHM doesn't have enough money to do another 2nd line p2 or another pancreatic p2 and has to go for ATM. What do you think the share price would be?
PPG, do you know how many shares Dart and Ayers have and what percentage of their portfolio is in PPHM?
<< I would appreciate more discussion on the scientific/clinical side of Peregrine >>
FTM, cjgaddy and others have done excellent job on the scientific and clinical topics and for the time being there isn't much more to be discussed till we get the first line NSCLC results.
This is a different matter. It would be worth 4B+ if it becomes a standard of care. The PPS is low because the major players for whatever reasons apparently give it a very low probability of becoming a SOC at this point. PPHM management and PR is partially to blame for it and for low share price.
<< I don't think its worth $30..... its worth much more. >>
Irrational exuberance at work. It is worth $30+ only on the PPHM board, for the rest of the world it is apparently a lot less.
<< Lots of chatter going on today.... Something is up, or down tomorrow/Monday!! >>
What are you talking about? Chatter?? Give some examples or links.
Selling PPHM calls for the last several months has worked good for me. I know sooner or later I'm gonna lose some of my trading shares - no problem, that's the part of the game.
Downside in May from here is limited, I don't thing we will see lower than 1.30. Upside is from flat to huge. So, buy share at 1.40, sell call at 0.10 - that covers the risk for the next month. Upside is limited to 0.20 or 15%, which is OK for trading shares.
No, those are not mine, haven't sold any PPHM June calls yet, just 1.5 May calls.
Right, very low volume, same for options. Can't even sell May $1.5 calls for 10 cents. Giving up on selling more calls - premiums are gone, low volatility.
<< But why are we sitting at $1.47? >>
Because the world outside of this board is a lot less optimistic about PPHM than we are. There is also a competition - many biotech companies are working on immunotherapy and other novel treatments.
Wookie, don't pound on frustrated. We need a difference of opinion. The board dominated by pumpers is useless and dangerous to less experienced investors - I've seen that too many times.
<< IMHO partnering of both Cotara and Bavi are near >>
Doesn't look that way to me. Cotara has been hard to partner or they would have done it already. Nothing is likely to happen with Bavi till we get p3 approved. Good first line p2 results would be encouraging but not enough for partnering unless they are really great - like 18 months or more. Two more months at least till we hear something IMO. I am selling calls again.
Yea, they need money. I sold most of my position at $5, will be looking to buy it back for less. Long term looks good.
Well, why the secrecy, this is not a blinded trial.
<< if I told you that the MOS is not reached and there are still two patients receiving treatments >>
Is this just a wild guess? Could you explain how you got that info if true.
Board is dead today. Should be some optimism here, last 5 trading days have been good, PPHM gained 10% this week. Here is a little question for the board - where will the price be on the last Friday in December (Dec 27, 2013) if we gain exactly 10% every week? The winner gits the squirrel varmit from LOOFMAN.
That hit piece on thestreet.com is by Adam F. We all know what he does, can't pay any attention to anything he writes without doing independent DD.
<< Why would PPHM hold news back til Monday >>
They certainly won't announce anything on Friday afternoon, so this evening or tomorrow morning is the last chance to hear something positive this week.
What makes you think there will be news on Monday? We may not hear anything till the end of this quarter.
<< The options people are going to hold it right around here til then >>
We've been thru this before. There are 3270 call contracts and 1340 put contracts with the 1.5 strike price expiring tomorrow. Is that enough to keep the price pinned at $1.5 to burn both calls and puts? We shall see... I actually wish you are right cause I wrote those calls too.
Look at the MNKD, market cap about 1B. A hit piece by AF yesterday and a bear raid today - almost predictable. PPHM is still a small fish for big players with only 200M market cap, but once we get to 500M+ these games will start here too.
Classical stock manipulation attempt
First a hit piece on MNKD by AF on Apr 17 and today a bear raid at 1:17PM by dumping 300k shares followed by dumping 250k at 1:36 etc.
I see it as a buying opportunity.
<< The reverse conversion will not soon be used anymore >>
You can put that on our wish list. It has been used on ARNA last few months to the tune of few million shares, also on VVUS a while back etc. It is not illegal and even if they "fail to deliver" nothing happens. Look at the NASDAQ fail to deliver list, it is huge, that shows how much illegal shorting goes on without any consequences. Since MM doesn't have any risk in reverse conversion this practice is likely to continue. You can download the Current Fails-to-Deliver Data below:
http://www.sec.gov/foia/docs/failsdata.htm
<< ..reverse conversions? >>
Usually a deal between a hedgie and a MM. MM creates synthetic long position consisting of long call and short put at the same strike price and the same expiration date. That position allows MM to short the stock and remain market neutral. The hedgie gets the opposite, short call, long put and gets the shares from MM. Those "phantom shares" are usually called "bullets".
Hedgie will first sell more calls, buy more puts and make a deal with somebody like Adam F to put out a hit piece on the company and at the same time start firing those "bullets" to get the bear raid going. During the raid the hedgie will cash in on options and may start buying the shares back by harvesting the stop loss orders.
<< I had a bunch of $5's that I exercised planning to sell Monday morning, and you know the story from there! >>
The situation is different now. First of all the stock is at 1.50, not 5, so downside is much smaller. All the bad news already reflected in the depressed share price, IMO unlikely to go down by a significant amount.
Generally, it is better to exercise options than to sell them. Commission is less and you also force MM to provide shares which may put upward pressure on the share price, especially if someone sold naked calls.
As you know I am on the opposite side of that trade, wrote $1.5 and $2 covered calls. I'll be watching the OPEX closely too.
<< Only 150K shares available to short >>
That would be for retail traders. Hedge fund and some other entities can always arrange with MM for a reverse conversion to create "phantom shares" or "bullets" as they call it and short all they want.
PPHM price is holding well on a bloody day like today. Makes me wanna add to my position, it should be mostly up from now on.
<< MSNMoneyShowsASK@$3.45ForTomorrowMorning >>
I can't find it, can you post the link. Thanks.
FWIW
Buy confirmation at americanbulls
buy confirmed
Interesting observation, the breakeven on Apr 1.5 calls bought at .10 is about $1.60 (ignoring the commission). I am short these calls, so the same applies to me - we shall see on Friday who made the right trade. If we get some good news this week than that trader had some inside info.
I believe you also trade options - these calls were going for 5 cents today, maybe something to nibble at tomorrow.
Talking about that put buyer he did the right thing after we got pancreatic results. I did sell a bunch of shares around $2.20 right after the results but made a mistake buying back too early around $1.70 - did not have enough patience to wait a bit longer. Well, maybe next time...
4ourretirement, thanks for the correction, I was looking at the wrong one. I don't know why would Yahoo list last month options - I automatically selected the first option (which should be April). Sorry for the mistake, however the max pain is still $1, so OPEX this week will not drive the PPHM stock price higher.
No, not only 1.5's. Total open interest for all the PPHM calls expiring in April is about 3500 according to Yahoo.
OK, it shows 3225 calls open interest, 1.5 strike. Look at Yahoo, it shows all strike prices, you can add up all the calls easily .
Yahoo options
That is correct, but we do not have 35K contracts, we have 3500, which is 350K shares. Go to optionpain to see max pain and call/put distribution.
<< I think it has more to do with options expiring this week than news. >>
Not enough open interest to sway the price, if you add all the April calls it is only about 3500 contracts. Puts are even less, only about 750 contracts total. Max pain is at $1 ($392,750 total), so if anything the PPS should go lower, not up.