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What a great and heartfelt story. I have everything crossed for you and your family. I truly hope your family is reunited real soon.
I understand now the flatness you must feel when we hit an obstacle like the 10 k. I think a number of us felt it would surpass .30 upon presentation. It's strange but the PPS has held up really well today especially given the Dow drop for many different reasons.
Forecasts last night were very damning about the PPS and the future. I did not sleep well thinking about my rationale behind my total belief in this company. It was as though a lot of people had given up on APDN and wasn't ready to join them.
I spoke to my broker who passed on his years of wisdom and he told me what I already knew, this company has a product and platforms that can make millions. Serious money. But as he said it ain't happening over night. I am really pleased that the backbone of APDN continue to support this business.
I honestly think this business is getting better. Getting bigger and making real progress and let's be frank it needs to. It has got enough cash till the end of next year and if they do need more finance they need to earn it.
I am still APDN long and am very happy to follow the big money like Crede who have enough confidence in this company they did not dump blocks of shares as suggested.
Have a great Christmas, happy holidays
Hey McSharkey i hope you are not too downhearted. I have to say i love your posts they are always a 100% honest and i respect that. We have a lot to look forward too........... on days like this you just have to dig a little deeper.
We have a great company with amazing products and it has attracted multi million pound investment. Have faith that those guys have invested probably more than you and I so if they are confident...
Using the words of a top guy try to "keep the faith" The pps certainly has this far :)
Its a shame you missed 90% of it johnsyn i hope you get a transcript because at the moment it Sounds like I am the only one here to take some comfort from the CC.
For me the biggest thing the Dr said re revenues was that last month they completed the assignment with the DLA and they passed every test. I understand this to mean they can only at that point charge up to $960,000. If you add that to our new Swedish business and comparable turnover for the same period it looks as though APDN could achieve sales of over $1.5 mill in the current quarter. Very close to break even without adding any new mandate work.
The Dr did say that the reported growth of 91% was just a foundation a platform, but it wasn't good enough hence the additional staff and floor space.
I agree we are left reading between the lines somewhat but I guess that's how the company operate. Even today's PR "thousands" of DNA marking kits with full traceability. Each pack has got to be $20 just 10,000 packs in London = $200,000 in one sale. What I am trying to say is the good Dr was very bullish on the outlook of APDN.
He said "we are heading towards profitability". I accept he didn't say when but like Johnsyn has said some of the details of the company have to remain private given the sensitivity .
The support the company has from its major shareholders is immense. This stock is heading in the right direction, 2013 could be a defining year in its history. It has to ramp up turnover and the good dr thankfully acknowledges this fact. Yes I wish that we knew more detail but my trust is in the product and its potential and as long as the major investors back APDN and I believe they will for some time yet I'm quite happy to sit on my shares.
GLTA
I will I will EV lol this webinar is brilliant...... APDN believe their market is up to 10% of all global trade. WOW Cant wait to everyones notes this is BRILLIANT
Spoke to my broker this morning who also holds shares in APDN and he, his company (who also own shares) and his numerous clients who also owns shares are all holding, including myself! I asked the question why given the expectations of some contributors to this board and his reply was interesting.
The current share price has got this far due to the mandate and recent PR's put out. The financial numbers at this stage are simply not important. The markets historically take little notice in the financials APDN publish. They have only just obtained the mandate amongst other contracts and he did not expect a major change to the accounts just yet. He feels this is the sentiment of certainly the people within the industry he has spoken to.
What he did say is that whilst a company's market cap can be calculated with a standard ratio a bio tech company like APDN should always hold a market value higher than traditional and he felt that the market cap APDN currently has is a fair reflection of the global potential and unique opportunity it offers.
As he told me the contracts are coming through and investors like crede probably want to give APDN a fair chance to start pulling these numbers through. At the end of the day a 90% increase is a good start. It is expected that the sales will ramp up through 2013 and we will all enjoy good times.
Guess we will see who falls if the tree shakes :)
GLTA
Does that not suggest AG they are in this for the long term too? Or perhaps they know something we don't, if a PPS of .30 wasn't attractive enough .............:)
Great post EV great reading
I think you are right about the 5.5 mill series a warrants AG apart from one minor detail.
If the stock trades at a premium of 25% of .186 for 20 days crede can be forced to purchase. It seems to me that the PPS rising must have been anticipated by both parties. As I have said before they know a lot more than you and me :)
I too was very surprised at the last quarter. I had anticipated over a million and had assumed the million from the DLA would start hitting the accounts in this quarter. I was wrong but hey let's be honest, they haven't lost the business. They have just deferred the income probably for Q1. That must make Q1 somewhere near to the whole of the turnover generated in the last 4 quarters.
I also think Johnsyn is right about being able to say far more than you can write. I expect the CC tomorrow to be very positive.
Finally thanks for all the posts everyone
Great question AG and I think the replies received are very interesting. The last quarter will definitely post a loss probably in excess of $2 Mill, perhaps a bit less but when you have the growth of APDN that figure is less important.
My only concern about the figures is what does the market expect. The ACTUAL sales will increase by over 400% compared to the same period last year. If that does not build confidence, the PPS will drop. Personally I hope that with such rapid growth the market will embrace the sales achievements to date.
At the end of the day it's about managing expectations. If the market does not like the numbers the PPS may drop but even if it does it won't drop that much anyway. I still think there is a lot of support around .18 anyway.
I don't think the Dr can afford to present the company in a way that significantly reduces the PPS anyway long term. Lets not forget having got into bed with an institutional investor it may prove difficult later to obtain outside finance in future if the investor loses their shirt. I wouldn't mind betting the company may have a couple of PR's it could release if need be perhaps early next year.
During the webinar I thought the Dr was very positive about APDN being the only 100% proved supplier being granted the mandate. I expect the Dr to be just as bullish about the future. He may not put numbers out there but he will state the obvious which is APDN's rise is rapid. Numerous income streams in different markets, satellite operations being established, additional personnel etc etc
Whatever happens tomorrow I won't be selling, the potential of this company is very special. I hope the market react to the many positives the Dr will be pushing tomorrow but we will see.
I wish everyone with all the various trading styles good luck. Thank you all for your posts. We have been waiting for actual numbers since last August and as I said the growth we know has been achieved should be a great starting point.
New post !!!!
Think financials will be released today to give us something to discuss tomorrow :)
Finally it's almost upon us....... we know the sales are strong and like you said Johnsyn today will be interesting. For me bring its a case of bring it on, this might be the last day for the MM's to manipulate the pps for a few days :) we will see
Just been looking at the numbers AG both published in Q3 and expected in Q4. Since the announcement of the mandate turnover in Q3 rose by 127% to a then quarter record. Expected figures for Q4 will be around 400% better than the same period a year earlier another quarter record. Sales for this fiscal year should come in at around $3Mill.
I believe that many investors or "experts" look for trends in a business. APDN currently has a red hot sales trend. I understand i am looking at quarters not years but because of the mandate and the increased attention globally i think its fair to say that these quarters Q3 and Q4 are more realistic than perhaps Q1 in the prior fiscal year. If you apply these percentages to the next fiscal year expected turnover could be speculated at $7 Mill to $15 Mill. Although i said earlier i expect $10M next year i have not factored in any additional work obtained and whats interesting is the good Dr himself said that this business will effectively snowball once the ball starts rolling.
Of course if you apply the same growth factor achived from 2010 to 2011 and apply it to this coming year turnover could be speculated at $37,680,000. Unlikely next year perhaps but 2014 ??
There is a real trend here that i think has the attention of some of the market. Will the pps react well to the numbers ? who knows. One thing i do hope is that as APDN officially report the fact that the need for their product is growing dramatically improving income streams and bottom line the market acknowledges that fact and given the global potential of this market buy into potentially one of the biggest success stories in recent times.
Just been looking at the numbers AG both published in Q3 and expected in Q4. Since the announcement of the mandate turnover in Q3 rose by 127% to a then quarter record. Expected figures for Q4 will be around 400% better than the same period a year earlier another quarter record. Sales for this fiscal year should come in at around $3Mill.
I believe that many investors or "experts" look for trends in a business. APDN currently has a red hot sales trend. I understand i am looking at quarters not years but because of the mandate and the increased attention globally i think its fair to say that these quarters Q3 and Q4 are more realistic than perhaps Q1 in the prior fiscal year. If you apply these percentages to the next fiscal year expected turnover could be speculated at $7 Mill to $15 Mill. Although i said earlier i expect $10M next year i have not factored in any additional work obtained and whats interesting is the good Dr himself said that this business will effectively snowball once the ball starts rolling.
Of course if you apply the same growth factor achived from 2010 to 2011 and apply it to this coming year turnover could be speculated at $37,680,000. Unlikely next year perhaps but 2014 ??
There is a real trend here that i think has the attention of some of the market. Will the pps react well to the numbers ? who knows. One thing i do hope is that as APDN officially report the fact that the need for their product is growing dramatically improving income streams and bottom line the market acknowledges that fact and given the global potential of this market buy into potentially one of the biggest success stories in recent times.
Having dealt with auditors before they are a law unto themselves as Johnsyn said.
I'm not sure something major is up rif but of course time will tell. Of course any one of your points may happen. My initial thought rif is that APDN is going great guns and is starting to ramp up turnover massively. This should increase its value and any major deal short term may not be in our good dr's interests in the long term.
One thing I am sure of is the good dr will have good advisors around him. It has taken years to get this far. I personally don't see the dr either giving his company away or doing anything to seriously damage how the market perceives APDN. It's a bit like the stocks why sell for .24 when you can get a dollar in a few months?
Only my opinion, but thanks for your perspective rif, interesting thoughts.
You do make some valid points AG. I did wonder why the deal with crede at .186
My rational was simply they needed the money sooner rather than later. I don't think many of us expect q4 to be profitable. The good dr cannot earn his pay unless they are profitable as I understand it so they must be close. Q1 is much more likely to achieve a profit.
I do think the PPS will move on good sales. Sales are the lifeblood of any business and all other numbers fall in line eventually, but only if sales are strong. You are right of course costs will have gone up but as long as sales grow strongly the nett loss will reduce anyway and then we enter profits :)
As you say the financials will be interesting I just hope the market appreciate the achievements this year. Turnover year on year has grown dramatically and as I said if you have sales the rest will fall into place.
I read a post from AG talking about a couple of stocks with no sales but market caps of over a billion !! These stocks were involved in diet pills a huge market.
When you look at the potential market for our company I cannot imagine many market sectors who wouldn't like to reduce / stop counterfeiters? Who wouldn't want to see criminals dealt with properly with the absolute proof our company can provide?
As times get tougher and they will the clever money will be spent protecting brands/assets/ budgets and most importantly people.
That's why like you WIshful IM NOT SELLING either :) this is the most exciting stock I have ever owned and I think one day soon this company will make many many people very wealthy....
Since this is just for fun..........lol
4th quarter will be a loss but turnover will have trebled to over $1.5 mill PPS over .30
If forward predictions include turnover over $10 mill I think the PPS will hit .50
During 2013 APDN will acquire further contracts (don't forget I was told to expect another biggie) this will push the PPS to over a $1.
I bought in in 2007 at .069 and still own all the shares I purchased. I respect the guys like AG who made a profit but to honest as I believe this stock will rocket I didn't want to miss the boat :)
GLTA
Would be very happy if you were right APDN1 :)
Great post wishful and great reply yip excellent and to the point.
Honestly Johnsyn I had boarders up attending 5 times in two days. They just went through the roof in the end!!
It really is a major problem, and sadly wasn't insured due to various excuses from the insurance company lol
When you are targeted sadly it doesn't take long. They even took the gas terminal and electric fuse boxes within 2 days. The police think the value of the copper etc was upwards of $80,000.
We need APDN and you are dead right Johnsyn with the DNA all the rogue scrap dealers would have a major problem buying stolen goods.
What a great story lol that's what I call justice :)
I agree Johnsyn I had a 27,000 square foot factory which was slightly damaged by a small fire. Within 48 hours my factory was stripped of all its pipe work, electrical wiring, everything! So much so it was soon condemned as uneconomical to repair. These guys do it for the money which invariably feeds some addiction or another. They are desperate, the police caught a couple and were soon back at my factory on the rob again. its the buyers of this stuff that fuel the fire. APDN can protect millions of companies and households. Go APDN
To be honest AG when APDN are making $5 to $10 million profit yearly the market cap will be far in excess of 140 mill in my opinion. To achieve that kind of profit turnover would need to be something like $25 to $50 mill and on just a conservative 10 times sales its market cap should be much higher.
The PPS today has a certain factor build in already which part reflects the product and its potential. I agree that to push past .30 the market will need to see audited achievements and maybe the 10k and record sales quarter on quarter might be it.
Great find yip, think the webinar was very useful. Lets hope potential investors take a look :)
Very true DS and the support it has achieved for a soon to be no longer loss making business is staggering. When APDN publishes a profit which I guess will be Q1 next feb the PPS is going into orbit lol going into Deep Space :) :)
Thanks wishful but I prefer your post:) real meat on the bone :) great find. If this is a new PR could this be released tomorrow? I'm guessing not as you have found it which doesn't usually happen Pre release. It would be great if they did but will they ?? :)
Thanks rudolfo, hope we see you again constructive comments have always been welcome on this board and it is through sharing these thoughts we learn and perhaps even change the way we view certain things.
I have always valued contributions from many people but especially Johnsyn, deep space, wishful, AG, mcsharkey to name but a few and I have been educated by the insight provided.
There is a lot of opinion about crede and the financing offer. It strikes me that whilst we can all have opinions on whether the deal is good or bad we should not forget the alternative. That is to run out of money and cease trading. APDN as seen in a accounts has lost $167 million thus far. As investors we all know about this figure and given the bio tech market all appreciate the costs involved to get this far. I guess if we didn't agree with this viewpoint we should not invest.
The company currently clearly spends more than it receives and has to obtain outside finance. I think reading the 8k carefully in the circumstances I don't think Dr Hayward did a bad job. Yes Crede clearly are in it for themselves but the Dr has put in some levers of protection.
Reading the 8k it is clear that if APDN require further outside finance within the next 180 days he has to involve Crede unless certain special circumstances come into play. This does not sound likely to me as our bargaining position will be even weaker. That said the Dr is clearly confident that the PPS will remain higher (than .186) and indeed if it remains 25% above the .226 price he can force Crede to buy more. I have to put my trust in Dr Hayward as he knows his business better than I do. He has even put in a forced buy out of warrants b and c which could in certain circumstances protect the share structure.
The truth of this business is that it has to be sales led. Revenues increase cash flow improves and the need for external funding negates. I agree with bigfish and AG that this is simply a necessary evil of a company that hasn't yet made a recorded profit. They are close and in fiscal 2013 will obviously make a good profit when you appreciate the contracts awarded and the turnover expected for Q4 and the new fiscal year.
Let us not forget this investment was not only to fund cashflow but more specifically to finance numerous contracts which create more revenue. Speculate to accumulate kind of philosophy if you will.
Personally I would be much happier if APDN were financially self sufficient but to me I believe that's where we are heading anyway. Reading the 8k to me suggests this is the last outside investment they might need and if that is the case then hopefully the PPS will start to settle down and will hopefully be less influenced by the likes of Crede if they are selling. And again we don't know if they are. By selling blocks in volume they push the PPS down. They know more about the financials and it may be they are looking for even better returns than they could have enjoyed on Friday, we just don't know. One thing we do know is if the PPS drops below the trigger number set they cannot be forced to invest further funds but that may not be an issue anyway as when the trigger is activated they make a potential 25% plus profit anyway.
As for this week and hopefully the financials I hope the board here share my confidence that the numbers have to be a marked improvement on Q 3 otherwise Crede would not have invested and the good Dr would not have been entitled to his additional benefits.
We now have many more followers who now own this stock. Volume has been fantastic and I hope that the trust they have shown will be rewarded if the markets reacts well to a minimum of 100% turnover increase from Q3 to Q 4.
Will be interesting next week for sure good luck to all and as usual thanks for the posts. The information gleaned from this board gives me great comfort that better days are around the corner.
Think johnsyns right DS. Probably a small dip and people panic sold. Remember last time it hit .29 lol
The annoying thing is AG was probably right if it managed to push past .30 it would have ended up at maybe .40 sadly the .30 was simply a tease of things to come :)
So I am sat here with a headache feeling I have been mugged lol so it's dust down, recharge the batteries and its back to business on Monday:)
Let's see what kind of volumes we do next week. Hopefully we have a new band of followers this week and our army is growing....
At times like this I thank The Lord I have shares in a company like APDN. The futures bright the future is APDN :)
Have a great weekend everyone and thankyou for the posts.
GLTA
I agree there was a lot of info gained and notes would be very useful. We also gained a lot of insight in the strength of the APDN position regarding the DLA mandate. I love the idea of opening numerous satellite locations within the DLA.
All good news :) perhaps today was a blip, it happens lets hope the financials put some meat on the bone :)
Your right Johnsyn it has been a good week just very surprised with today. Buys were strong......wonder why the PPS dropped so much?
I even thought the webcast contained some very strong comments and clarification of clients as you rightly surmised. Like you said will be interesting next week :)
Now it's almost all buy buy buy wonder why the PPS isn't moving!!!
Those poor poor families, my thoughts and prayers are with them all. God bless
Morning AG
What do you make of all this volume lol where will we end up today do you think?
Do you have a prediction for our PPS tomorrow ct? :)
It's interesting what you said earlier Johnsyn about the timing of the PR's. Like buses nothing then 3 or 4. I also understand the dilemma on whether to hold or sell.
A lot of us here have watched / owned this stock for a long time. In that time we have endured long periods of silence before. This is different because APDN are clearly getting out there and having a lot of success.
Whether the stock will go up or down in the short term we will see. My personal opinion is that the PPS will go some way higher yet. The PR's are good especially today's, people usually wait for financials before jumping in but not with APDN. We know that turnover will be a record quarter at least 100% up on Q3. I don't see the market reacting badly. But I understand people looking to safeguard some or all of their profits. For me as the volumes are fantastic and news is imminent I don't think the PPS is likely to drop short term, not so close to financials.
This latest PR from earlier was definitely planned to be dropped now. Our good Dr stated that turnover with this new client was already $170,000. This means we have a new major client which could have been PR'd weeks ago. I just wonder if anyone has an opinion as to why release the news now. Not that I am complaining :) releasing this PR and an opportunity to listen to our good Dr............maybe it is just a way of saying we are here, bigger, stronger, richer and we ain't going nowhere but up...... Now come join us !!!
I also think the good Dr is sending us a sign that we are doing so well on many markets. I think the importance of the number itself isn't significant though it is a great number lol I think it's the fact that the Dr appears to be throwing the market a snapshot at its unbelievable potential.
If potential gave us a PPS it would be several dollars a share today. Buy in people while its still cheap.
Great post yip. Even though I really am the APDN believer this post to me is simply massive. It just shows the versatility of the platform. APDN really is full on with innovation.
I love Dr Hayward saying over $170,000 in revenue from Sweden in December alone. Simply massive massive potential.
Lets hope we have a great day GLTA
Love the lyrics lol
Welcome back isn't it great to watch so many people get a piece of our pie.
We have waited a long time for good movement and it really is great to see.
GLTA