Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The Fools weigh in on Capstone again on October 1--Is Capstone Turbine Destined for Greatness?
I'll break it down tomorrow.
I think it is fine to disagree and if we all learn from the differing opinions that's great. Like you, I'm not happy and not panicked, although I must say that I'm concerned. Q2 has been relatively quite compared with the last year or so. Will we make money on this Company? That is the big question as it does seem that the shorts have control and have been correct more than the longs.
I'm still here and haven't bailed--if I lose a big chunk of change as a result of hanging tight that won't be a new experience and of course there will be only one person to blame--myself; I've believed in other company's technology, went in big, road them through reverse splits, down to the pinks and out of existence.
As far as my comment about the "dark side" I'm glad to see that the offending post is still up and hope that the poster did get that 6 pack. We all have different trading styles, objectives, cost basis, etc. and I believe that we can all learn from one another. I personally don't have a problem with posters mentioning their angst and disappointments concerning some of the fairly complex capital raising efforts, and do find, that for the most part, some of the more experienced posters here will take the time to explain them in layman terms.
In the meantime we continue to wait...
CPST is a growth story
Capstone has always been a "growth story" or story stock. Sometimes the same old stories are trotted out to hopefully pump up investor interest, i.e. "at a buck this is a great time to join the story." We continue to hear about backlog, plant utilization, having adequate cash on hand to reassure potential new customers, warranty expenses, UTC (Carrier) royalties, buses/no buses, dilution (The "D" word as DJ put it in the last annual report transcript,) warrants, shelf offerings, better margins on the C1000s, and on and on. We hear about profits next quarter, next year, etc. We see pie charts of the potential market vs what Capstone hopes to capture.
Capstone took a bold initiative and dropped some spare change to be the title sponsor of "the World we Want" wall at the Rio +20 which turned out to be a total bust according to some who attended. Captain MicroTurbine continues to be the most asinine "mascot" for Capstone--the marketing firm who came up with this concept should be fired.
Finally Lloyd and chklingon--be careful about looking at the "dark side" of things here as any serious debate is not welcome. Such behavior may result in a keel hauling or worse--just my opinion and observations of course---arrg! I can fully understand your frustration, regardless of your trading style or tolerance for risk. Anyone who tells you different is in the doldrums, awaiting a stiff breeze to inflate their sails.
Wild_Bill
First thanks for getting back re the opening block of 1/2 million shares at $1.02
I think my TFH must have some extra crinkles in it as I can't seem to dial in the enjoyment of all the possibilities. Of course it could be that my old hat is being shorted 45 million times and keeps getting pushed down and is out of shape for good reception.
What Q2 CC may hold in way of news is a total guess. The profit target seems to keep moving out a quarter or two and we're told not to pay too much attention to the Q/Q and just watch the Y/Y. Each time I attempt that the dang target seems to move again. Perhaps if I start using heavy duty tin foil (0.9 mil) rather than the cheap 0.6 mil standard I can tune in and enjoy this game.
The PPS range has held fairly steady and doesn't seem to be correlated to the general market as a whole lately. We can talk all we want to about manipulation, shorters, Investment Houses holding pat, etc., but in the end it is solely up to Capstone to produce a profit which will provide the basis of a higher pps. On the topic of IHs...they may be too big to fail, but that surely doesn't mean they are right in their assumptions.
Finally! Its been a long wait for a sales announcement.
Seasound, you can bet your life savings that I will not be that white knight that pays $3.00 a share!!!!
How about some Warrants or "Put Options?" These seem very popular with Knights around the table of late. Can I get an Incentive Award for hanging on?
Due the way Capstone has treated some of my savings, my lifespan has more than likely been shortened in the joint life actuarial tables. While I'm continually reminded not to get hung up on the PPS, as profits are just around the corner, over the rainbow, or just over the horizon,the daily moves do have a certain gut wrenching affect on me; seems like a long time that those moves were in the positive direction. Just my humble opinion of course.
I've yet to see much activity out of Chatsworth this quarter, other than an iPad App, since the last announced sale on August 3, 2012. Only 4 days and 4 minutes before the quarter ends. Of course we won't hear the CC for Q2 until sometime in November.
I see that the pps high during that period was $0.86 but for the most part stayed below $0.75. Interesting that in July '08 the pps closed at $4.32
Can anyone explain the 500,000 + shares that bumped the volume, but didn't show on the chart on September 21, right at the market open? There were no sales or buys, that I could see, on my platform that could account for this. Six minutes later the volume was 548,000 or so. Any ideas on this behavior?
This is a good example of how we all learn more about Capstone and I thank you for breaking down the last 4 1/2 years of stock offerings and Warrants. Again, I'll go back and study the last Annual Report to gain a better insight into what happened when with the Warrants. I am in this game for the same reasons as the IHs, and private investors--to make money (and yes, as with any security there are risk involved, especially with penny stocks.)
Pie charts depicting the total market opportunity, for a particular product, and the potential capture rate of that market are really just a prospective guesses on the capture side. I've seen it all before, and it looks great on a slide show. What we are seeing with Capstone is that they are refocusing on the vertical areas that are currently viable--"In the markets we are focusing on, which are energy efficiency, renewable energy, natural resources, critical power supply and mobile products, we have identified specific targeted vertical market segments" see page 27 of the 2012 Annual Report for specifics. We are seeing a rapid consolidation or outright rejection of greener energy due the world financial mess. The landscape can change and change in a hurry. Heck, Henry Hub Nat Gas spot was about 13 bucks 3 years ago, who would have thought North America would have the cheapest Nat Gas in the world then? Who knows what the election will bring or take away?
One of the main concerns with Capstone becoming a viable and accepted technology is enumerated in their Annual Report "Although the market for fuel cells is still developing, a number of companies are focused on markets similar to ours, including FuelCell Energy Inc., UTC Power Corporation (‘‘UTCP’’), Bloom Energy Corporation, Plug Power Inc. and Ballard Power Systems Inc. Fuel cells have lower levels of NOx, CO, VOCs and other criteria pollutant emissions than our microturbines. Fuel cells, like solar and wind powered systems, have received higher levels of incentives for the same type of applications as microturbines. Management believes that, absent these higher government incentives, microturbines provide a better value to end users in most applications. However, over the medium-to-long term, fuel cell technologies that compete more directly with our products may be introduced." No matter the bashing of Fuel Cell technology this power source is grabbing huge markets that Capstone once "owned" so to speak. Its out there, its real, and its a concern. The whelms of potential prospects can be changed quickly by sales at any cost as DJ pointed out in the Annual Report CC.
I do also understand the back-log is not linear, i.e. first in isn't necessarily first out. The 2012 Annual Report states that Capstone anticipates shipping the entire back-log as of March 31, 2012 and 2011 (?) of 158.8 Megawatts within the next twelve months. If this assumption holds true we should be in good shape for the Y/Y, but not necessarily Q/Q which would break that 20 quarters of increased revenue. What concerns me about back-log at the moment is that we need to keep adding new orders to it. This quarter seems a bit lean to me as I've pointed out previously.
Finally, I think it was 2 million in inventory on the dock that missed shipment prior to the end of Q1. I seem to recall DJ making reference to it around 47 minutes into the CC. Of course I could be wrong.
S-8 Shares are dilution, plain and simple
I suggest you carefully read the last quarter report and listen to the last Annual Report. Download the last quarter's supplimental(sic) materials, and look closely at the material improvements and growth.
You will have a much better understanding of the company and its future prospects.
What I understand is that since the last CC and annual report this stock has went no where, no matter how closely I listen, or how closely I look, I have no better understanding except future prospects are just that--prospects. A bunch of folks went out to California in 1849 prospecting and most ended up broke. Talk and forward looking statements do not a pan of gold make.
Interesting all the chatter about shelf offerings. Clearing them out at a discount might eliminate the "carrying costs" on the books but issued they were. We were just given another example that as long as those warrants are there they will more than likely be issued. Yes, I know that it is not dilution until they are issued but from what I'm seeing a whole lot of dilution is occurring. Cleaning out warrants by amending Agreements in favor of the warrant holder seems like bad business decisions to me, i.e. if indeed those warrants were bought for 94 cents and not the $1.26 or $1.55 that was in the 2009 agreement.
Gene_Genome broke it down as follows:
Except as otherwise indicated herein, the information above and elsewhere in this prospectus supplement regarding outstanding shares of our common
stock is based on 174,100,629 shares of common stock outstanding as of April 30, 2009, and excludes the following shares of common stock:
• 9,851,967 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of stock options outstanding as of April 30, 2009, with a weighted-average exercise
price of $1.67 per share;
• 2,804,660 additional shares of common stock reserved for future issuance under our stock incentive plans and our employee stock purchase plans
as of April 30, 2009;
• 16,157,895 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of warrants outstanding as of April 30, 2009, with an exercise price of $1.30 per
share (subject to adjustment);
• 6,445,698 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of warrants outstanding as of April 30, 2009, with an exercise price of $1.92 per
share 10,838,151 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of the warrants issued hereunder (assuming that all of the securities offered
hereby are sold).
Still long and waiting, and waiting, and waiting
Of course..you know that at $3.00 a share..that values the company at close to $1 Billion dollar$!..
That's a lot of mega-watts. Perhaps Air Force 1 will do a low and slow fly-over to get the price back up.
So perhaps a better question would be.. why would this stock go up?
Cramer said it was a great buy at this level.
Someone on Seeking Alpha regurgitated another article saying it was poised to turn a profit.
DJ is going to get another 20 seconds on CNBC
The Russians are coming as are the South Americans.
Boone Pickens has a few windmills he wants to trade in for Capstones.
The most likely reason will be that I can't take it anymore and sell my long term stake. Within an hour of selling a white knight will ride in and pay 3 bucks a share for the company.
My platform is showing volume of 548,584 out of the gate at the open. That same volume isn't reflected in the sales chart. That is a strange one for you to figure out Wild_Bill.
About the only thing that I haven't heard lately, other than any new sales announcements, is "Capstone is a great buy at these levels." Have our pundits went into hiding?
The quarter ending June 30 was a major disappoint to me..Capstone had an additional 33 million shares outstanding to divide into their loss..and their net loss per common share still missed!!
This quarter could be worse as there hasn't been a sales announcement since August 3. I sure hope they've been burning up those much touted backlogs, as Q2 2013 is looking a little light in the new order department. All we can hope for at this time is shipping, commissioning and accounts receivable.
A lot of folks found the last CC to be rather somber affair. Let's hope the next one isn't a wake.
Thanks again Gene. I did flip over to Columbine's site and digested their methodology. Didn't have time to look at the others. Each day comes with new learning and challenges.
Thanks also for the additional input re: the latest Investor Agreement. I didn't go far enough back and didn't catch the S-3 Registration on 12/24/08. The more I learn the more worried I get; at least Capstone seems to be trying to buck the trend today--so far.
Thomson Reuters
Zacks Investment Research
Market Edge
Ford Equity Research
EVA Dimensions
GMI
The 7 firms, which includes Columbine, form an Equity Summary Score which is an accuracy-weighted sentiment derived from the ratings of independent research providers on Fidelity.com. It uses the past relative accuracy of the research firms in determining the emphasis placed on any individual opinion.
Currently the sentiment Equity Summary score is 0.8 which translates to "Very Bearish."
I usually don't pay too much attention to these types of reports but the Columbine one came across my trading platform this morning so I posted it for what it's worth.
Ford Equity Research has a relative accuracy of 90 while Market Edge rates a 2. Of interest to me is that out of the 7 research firms 4 are neutral and 3 a sell. Who's right? Your guess is as good as mine.
Columbine Capital Services from Fidelity
Sorry about leaving the link out.
Thanks Gene. That number is a pittance of total shares outstanding and shouldn't have much effect on the PPS IMHO.
Additionally, pursuant to the Investor Agreement, the Company agreed to amend the warrant originally issued to the
Investor to reflect an exercise price of $1.26.
Looking back at the February 4, 2009 prospectus the first paragraph states "This prospectus supplement relates to, and should be read together with, the prospectus supplement dated February 29, 2012 to the prospectus dated February 4, 2009." While I'll admit I'm no expert on SEC filings modifying documents filed 3 1/2 years ago seems convenient (perhaps this is the way it is done per SEC regs but it still seems strange to rewrite history.)
The Prospectus Supplement dated March 1, 2012 appears, at least to me, that the exercise price was $1.55. If I am correct is that the figure that was amended to a $1.26?
Does anyone know how many shares the Clean Edge Green Energy Index currently holds?
On September 15, 2012 Columbine Capital Services, Inc. downgraded CAPSTONE TURBINE CORP (CPST) from FAVORABLE to NEUTRAL. Just another bit of no so good news that seems to have been overlooked. This was the day after the 300K shares traded in extended hours trading.
We could certainly use news of a giant order, or any order for that matter about now. Only 8 business days left until end of Q2 2013.
Only 9 business days until end of Q2. No announcements concerning new orders since August 3rd. As stated before there should be at least $2,000,000 in inventory to be shipped that carries forward to this quarter.
What effect Greenvironment's insolvency will have on Capstone remains to be seen. I sincerely hope that any inventory they may have in stock is bought and paid for. Really too bad to see this as it seemed there for awhile that they were going to be one of our major distributors.
Unusually high volume of 302,124 shares traded after hours @ $1.03 as pointed out by Wild_Bill in previous post (sorry Bill as when I saw your post I didn't add up the numbers.) I looked at NASDAQ after hours and was surprised by the total. Not sure of the significance of that volume other than that it appears much higher than normal of late.
Nice to read the July 13 article again, i.e. Act 1. The second act was much shorter without the background details to support the thesis. IMHO, Act 2 is again the same old dog being trotted out, trying to make him hunt. "Since the time of my previous article of July 13, 2012, there have been exciting developments for Capstone MicroTurbine(CPST), all serving to reinforce my previously expressed view that the stock could triple in value. In fact, on September 5, 2012, a $2 target was initiated at Craig-Hallum, which exhibits confidence that the stock will double in value." BTW, Peak Performance is an anonymous contributor to Seeking Alpha who has submitted 4 articles, 2 of them about Capstone. Peak also has a whopping 23 followers. If this is the most exciting thing this author can come up with we are knee deep in methane--my opinion.
Craig-Hallum has a slide show on their homepage with photos of Westport Innovations and Clean Energy among others. Digging further into their site they apparently hold no Capstone shares according to their "Recent Transactions" drop-down from "Transactions." They have one analyst following CPST, Eric Stine. Interesting that Mr. Stein thinks he has a 2 bagger on his radar, but the company owns no CPST shares as far as I can tell.
My concern at the moment is the seemingly longer than usual time-frame in announcing new orders. Nonetheless, other back-orders could have been shipped during this quarter which will help the Q2 numbers, and hopefully maintain the 20 consecutive quarter of revenue growth. If that doesn't happen I'll have "watershed eye."
Long and hanging sideways, which of course is better than being long and hanging as the PPS goes down.
Yes, it would seem that the pump keeps getting primmed, but never draws water. There was certainly nothing in the Seeking Alpha article that would lend credence to a triple bagger. The only way I can see us getting there is either a giant order and/or a continued steady stream of order announcements, installs, commissioning and AR being paid on time.
Keep reminding yourself though the Capstone is a bargain at the $1.00 level. If it can rally higher of course that would be the proof we all would like to see. Sitting here in the doldrums is not much fun, but the Blue light special pricing has been extended due the unexpected slowdown in sales IMHO.
Someday will tell the tale.
Capstone Part 2: Bounding Towards Triple Value
by Peak Performance
<< Return to Part 1
Since the time of my previous article of July 13, 2012, there have been exciting developments for Capstone MicroTurbine (CPST), all serving to reinforce my previously expressed view that the stock could triple in value. In fact, on September 5, 2012, a $2 target was initiated at Craig-Hallum, which exhibits confidence that the stock will double in value. read more »
More on CPST:
Capstone Turbine Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
The Stars Of Profitability May Be Aligning For Capstone Turbine And Other Energy Sector Plays by VFC's Stock House
Capstone Turbine Technicals Are Starting To Match Improving Fundamentals: Part 1 by Peak Performance
Other articles that mention CPST:
Weekly Stock Watch: Week Of August 13 by VFC's Stock House
5 High-Growth Small-Caps With Encouraging Inventory Trends by Kapitall
World's Largest Money Managers Bullish On Alternative Energy: Their Top Picks And Pans by Ganaxi Small Cap Movers
Just 17 days until the end of Q2 2013. The tally of sales so far in Q2, as I see them on Capstone's site, is as follows:
July 3--Two C1000 power packages to Southern California distributor Regatta Energy Solutions. Press release says "sold to Regatta Energy Solutions." No mention of install and commission date.
July 9-- One C1000 and Five C200s to two large North American oil and gas producers. Distributor distributor Horizon Power Systems. The C1000 "will be installed and commissioned later this summer." The C200s "will be installed and commissioned in late August
July 11-- One C1000, one C200 one C800. Distributer Supernova Energy Services. Install and commissioning late 2012
August 3-- Five C65s. Capstone's new Thailand distributor Aqua Nishihara Corporation Limited secured the order. Expected commissioning January 2013
No orders since August 3 according to Capstone's "Press Releases" page.
Recap:
C1000 -- 4
C800 -- 1
C200 -- 6
C65 -- 5
High Close July 19 $1.09
Low Close August 31 $0.9987
Sideways since August 10 the day after Q1 CC August 9
If any of the above is incorrect I apologize in advance, but do welcome corrections if required.
41 days since last announcement--seems as if we are in the doldrums; would be nice to see a big order announced prior end of Q2. 2 million dollars worth of inventory on dock, just prior to end of Q1, will carry-over to this quarter, if I understood DJ's comments correctly during Annual Shareholder's Meeting.
"Do we have a complete list of up to date of Distributers and Dealers.??"
Check out the Distributors drop-down under the "Our Company" tab on Capstone's site. One would hope the list is up to date.
Pssst--want to buy 9 C65s with no operational hours on them? Could this be the answer of where Global Energy acquired those brand new crated units?
I will add also that holding those 2 million dollars worth of Caps on the shipping dock until the funding was completed now makes even more sense. It is unfortunate though that Greenvironment couldn't make it as they were bringing some nice orders to Chatsworth.
I've also seen other adverts and wondered about how the Capstones ended up in a secondary market. Global Energy is offering the ones you link us to. 9 brand new C-65s no operational hours? I would hope that Capstone was paid prior to shipping these to Global Energy or whoever, but it still concerns me that we have NOS (new old stock) available on the secondary market. Global Energy is not listed as a distributer on Capstone's site.
Still no new sales information coming out of Chatsworth.
read some news somewhere where we were poised to go down, however things seem rather upbeat on this board. What am I missing? Or is everyone just in a giddy mood?
I had a nightmare last night; saw 0.75 and broke out in a cold sweat--certainly no giddiness here.
The good news seems to be coming from our Russian friends OAO TATNEFT (see Capt'ns post 13481 and BPC Engineering and Capstone's Customer Conference.
I'm hoping that tomorrow's Annual Shareholder's meeting will include the announcement of some new orders.
The last announced order is from Thailand, on August 3, and is for 5 C65s. Prior to that the last announced orders are from the first 2 weeks of Q2 see 13474
I think tomorrow will tell the tale. Let's hope there is some new "real" news announced that will propel the stock upward.
With no new order announcements since the Thailand order on August 8 -- should read August 3. Sorry about any confusion.
So far Q2 is front loaded with the following orders:
4 C1000s (7/3, 7/9, 7/11)
6 C200s (7/9, 7/11
1 C800 (7/11)
5 C65s (8/3)
With no new order announcements since the Thailand order on August 8, the PPS is struggling to remain above a buck on a day that appears on track to be in-line with the 90 day average volume.
Things seem unusually quite following the Q1 CC, speaking of which, many felt was far less enthusiastic than previous quarterly conference calls.
The Annual Share Holder's meeting is being held this Thursday, the 30th of August. With potential new shares being offered, if approved, "just in case they are needed," a heavier burden will weigh upon the existing shareholders shoulders.
We new orders on the books as that much ballyhooed back-log won't last forever, neither will "cash on the books."
JMHO
Translated from Russian--
October 15-20, 2012 in the U.S. (Los Angeles, CA), the company "BPC Engineering" in collaboration with Capstone Turbine Corporation will hold the first customer conference «USER GROUP - 2012."
This is the first event organized for users microturbines Capstone. Customer conference is a unique forum for communication professionals of companies operating microturbines, with experts Factory Capstone and BPC Engineering, in practice implements complex engineering projects with the use of micro-turbines and performing their service and maintenance in Russia and the CIS. The event is intended to become an annual event for key customers BOC, in which they can get the latest information on hardware features, new developments and decisions of the BPC Engineering and Capstone Turbine Corporation, share practical experiences of microturbines and resolve critical technical issues that arise during the operation .
To invite international leaders and key professionals responsible for the implementation and operation of microturbine systems Sapstone, businesses - customers BPC Engineering from Russia and the CIS.
The program of the first Conference of clients «USER GROUP - 2012":
Factory Tour Capstone Turbine Corporation. You can see they are produced, assembled and tested microturbines Capstone, as well as how the quality control in manufacturing.
Information session during which you will learn the latest market news microturbines acquainted with innovations and development trends Capstone, as well as the world's best experiences with microturbines.
Technical and consultative session, during which you will be able to live in the format dialog Ask an Expert Capstone and BOC for operation and maintenance of equipment. Capstone experts will highlight the most important technical aspects of the work, diagnostics and troubleshooting.
Client session, during which we will offer you the opportunity to meet with members of the Conference in the absence of representatives of the BOC and the Capstone and discuss their ideas for the optimization of our Company and customer support to better meet your needs, and then give us your recommendations and suggestions.
Visit the existing facilities and exchange of microturbines Capstone, running in the three-generation, associated petroleum gas and biogas.
Informal communication with colleagues in the most interesting sightseeing in Los Angeles and Las Vegas.
Conference participants: managers and their deputies, chief engineers, chief energy, technical director.
Organizers of the event:
- Company "BPC Engineering" , a leading provider of innovative technologies and equipment for distributed power. Exclusive distributor of Sapstone Turbine Corporation in Russia and the CIS. Ten years of experience in the field of energy efficiency more than 250 completed projects of independent power supply in Russia and the CIS total electrical capacity of 200 MW and a thermal capacity of 350 megawatts.
- ???????? Capstone Turbine Corporation - ??????? ??????? ????????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????????????? ?????????????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ?? 15 ??? ?? 1 ???. ??????????? ?????????? ??????????? ??????????????? ? ??????????????? ????????? ???????????? Capstone ???????? ??????? ?????????. ?? ??????????? ???? ????? 6000 ?????????????? ????????? ? ??????? ????????????????? ? ????? ??? 50 ??????? ????.
Location: California, Los Angeles, Capstone Turbine Corporation plant in Chatsworth
Participation: Participation is free.
To register for the Conference and for more information on the event you can get from our employees:
- Olga Parfenov, Director of Marketing. Tel.: +7 (495) 780-31-65 (ext. 2337), Cell: +7 (916) 793-33-54, parfenova@bpc.ru
- Alain Serdyukov, manager of public relations. Tel. +7 (495) 780-31-65 (ext. 2311), Cell: +7 (915) 461-79-06, serdukova@bpc.ru
Registration deadline was 08/27/2012
The whole issue with two units sitting on the dock prior to the Q1 CC is moot. Why revisit it? Spin it anyway you want, but those units didn't ship in time to be reflected in the Q1 results.
Anyone in $CPST obviously meets the requirement. You got that right! Mine I think has went from cast iron to platinum lining.
That little spike made up almost 1/3 of todays total volume. I agree with you that it is difficult to get excited over a couple of pennies, but, compared to the alternative I'll take it. I'm just hoping that that spike was due to something coming our way.