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unfortunately...it is going up fast...
The number of confirmed cases in New York has risen 1,008 in one day to a total of 2,382. The City is hitting the steeper part of its epidemic curve and case counts will rise more quickly as screening is widely deployed.
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) March 18, 2020
Order completed in several small transaction. EOM
RE: MDGL close to my target (65). Plan to increase position by 25%.
BioB,...it is slope of increase that concern me. How far we were 7 days ago, when spread was *FREE*, uncontrolled?
Is spread so far advanced that *social isolation* is not anough? Anyway, it is STUPID to put affected person in HOUSE (facility) isolation. Where are quarantine facility???
China put drastic measure that is, to as, even hard to think, less activated. Would we accept *IRON FIST*?
Bio....I tried to by HCQ (hydroxychloroquine) few (4-5) weeks back, pharmacies out of stock. In EU, think, Sanofi is making CQ/HCQ...so, why high CFR in France as well?
I think it is good option, with antibiotic (Azithromycin) for severe pulmonary condition.
Why in Italy high CFR...luck of ICU (standard of care). They are treating pts on *streets*!
Today US had 1750 new CoV cases, if tomorrow we have 25% growth (~2100 cases), and by Thursday another 25-30% growth (2.7-2.8K cases)...bending the curve may be options available only on paper, not in reality. Bad filling, we (US GOV) are continuously LATE!
Expect bloody Friday, again!
<Do you concur with the premise in the second paragraph of #msg-154376830?>
"Hence, it’s possible—perhaps probable—that the peak in actual U.S. cases will occur in <90 days, while the peak in known U.S cases will occur in ≥90 days."
Yes, I do.
90 is just number,... weeks here and there may not change much...*nation need to see light at the end of tunnel*!
<So, it’s somewhat surprising to see BNTX up 65% today the official PR.>
Day and momentum traders read *headlines*, not article and small print! (they need to act fast and stupid)
That is great read, I tried several time to complete...lost concentrations.
If time to peak is ~180, in US, what would be #cases, #death,...CFR,...from any prospective R0 (let say 2.5 or 7 days to double)?
I think that 180 days to peak will be more than DEVASTATING!
PS: IF it is possible to reduce R0 to <1.5...maybe *flattering* will bring some relief?
COVID-19 poll: <90 days
I put the order for MDGL @65. About for 40% of my current MDGL position. Hope for tax-loss selling by 3Q/4Q-2020?
<Is anybody buying anything today?>
Sandwich, around 10 am PST. Woke early, so hungry now!
Stocks, no...storm did not yet passed! It is just few small *lightening*!
Idea of Zn-complexation is great. Chloroquine need to be neutral, with N-negative charge, (not double protonated, like in formulation) to be able to complex Zn+2, so how is transported in blood/plasma and reach target pulmonary cells?
Hope chloroguine explanation work!
Ian, maybe that approach is good one, If applied gradually. However, we do not know will immunity stick (until next outbreak) or that virus itself will not mutate into resistant strain. Universal vaccine is proper answer.
Can anyone tract camostat mesilate (NI-03), who originally developed and who has IP right? So far, it is Japan's Kangen Pharma.
https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-019-3606-y
Originally developed as TMPRSS2 inhibitor (as trans-membrane cysteine protease inhibitor), it may show the most efficacious method to combath nCoV pandemic.
Show me evidence that pneumonia, CV-death, kidney failure,... as death caused due to viral influenza infection, is death diagnostic for that 10K flu numbers?
<in ITALY in 2019 there were 10,000 deaths from normal flu
the corona virus has killed 463...>
Who told you that FUCKING nonsense?
Lopan, Italy...there are also deaths that are not counted!
It is very bad situation in northern Italy. Even IF 2% CFR, it is too much!
The idea is early detection and treatment. Outcome much better.
In epidemic/pandemic situation that is LUXURY, that does not represent real situation. Without FEAR one can not generate *luxury*. Normally, fear should generate common sense approach, not panic.
<Covid-19 testing is low-margin business.>
Yes, in general, but from what they charge now...$200 in US (20e in EU), it is far from low-margin. That may change, still big chunk of that $8.3B was for testing. Some micro-b may make millions? I have no idea which one!
RE: REGN
Would like to hear other opinion/view on Eylea-biosimilar front. At this point three players (Coherus, Mylan, and Amgen), but...can other IP factors (other than composition patents) play rule, after 2023?
It is small first step, in right direction.
Normally, Mr. Market will make MRNA very volatile in coming weeks/months...stay focused on business plan/development/achievements.
<I’m surprised (and pleased) that China is as low as 13%.>
Count India as well.
While we do not have good reason to Qs FDA data, that 13% manufacturing sites does not give correct picture over Asia *restriction* (several pharma build large manufacturing center in Singapore, for Asia market primarily) on future availability of the brand/generic drug in US.
That number is for organic + biologic drug. IF you separate small molecule brand/generic, I am sure that 13 will at least TRIPLE. So, we should expect SHORTAGE of the drug IF trade embargo/isolation persist to fall and beyond.
What is that FDA *insight*, already not primary or secondary in RESOLVE-IT?
Re: Beovu vs Eylea
>=30 letters event rate...have no idea. But, why at all in label?, when dry/not dry is major criteria for retreatment, and BCVA is secondary?
On Eylea price pressure,...it was/is for last 6-8 years...so, it is all about how any new entrant will/may *break* SOC!
Beovu label:
https://ec.europa.eu/health/documents/community-register/2020/20200213147089/anx_147089_en.pdf
<Withholding treatment
In intravitreal anti-VEGF treatments, the dose should be withheld and treatment should not be
resumed earlier than the next scheduled treatment in the event of:
? a decrease in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) of ≥30 letters compared with the last
assessment of visual acuity;
Right, YOU go blind before YOU reach next scheduled iv injection!!!
With safety issue, need for additional monitoring,...inflammation, unknown effects of the neutralizing Abs,.... Beovu is not superior (and not a mach) to Eylea. Roche was smart, as always.
RE:MRNA Anyone with opinion how market may react IF NHI/MRNA announce vaccine manufacturing partner? For instance...Lonza! In light of the new development in China!
True. Does that rise even bit of the suspicious thinking that V-effects are in part *strange and unbelievable*?
At this point data for Keytruda looks weaker than for Tecentriq (PDL1>1%, PFS-accelerated approval), for L1 TNBC.
You name it, I have nothing to add. WIKI is fine.
But, is only EPA only *magic bullet* that do all those things (and what we do not know, or at to as unknown rate), or other unsaturated FAs ca do as well? Maybe not as good, maybe somewhere some better,.... so, why should I waste my money on Vascepa? Anyway, (as Mediterranean) I do prefer fish over fish oil. Even if it means (which it does, my Hg is >20 mcg/L) elevated Hg in blood/tisue/brain.
I think I may start to like MRNA! Potential is huge, technology uncertain. Worth keeping in close observation.
RE:KOD Fully diluted @80 it was close to $4B (I think dilution is to 48-50M shares, I may be wrong here).
Maybe somebody realize that KSI-301 is only at *early clinical*, far from pivotal read-out, and MC of $+4B was simple put...*too-much*?
Looks like waste of $$$$, on PFE part.
You are correct, in PIVOT2 there was no CR in 1L RCC, still there was some time-improvement (2018 v 2017), and they did not reported anything in 2019. Logic dictate that picture was not as rosy as was for melanoma, maybe due to pts selection, maybe due to RCC-nature.....
Regards the 2L RCC, Cabo was not much better that Nivo (RWD):
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6476457/
In P3 Cabo is limited to 50% of the comparator arm, so even small Bem benefit may produce 10-15 (or maybe 20%) OS benefit (those who respond may respond longer???). But that is more or less irrelevant in fast changing treatment options in RCC. The better may be to add IL2 to TKI/PD1 combo?
BMY is running new dose optimisation P1/2 in RCC as well, so it appears max benefit is (may) not reached with current combo-regime.
Confusion from start, mess now, even more mess to come? But IL-2/PD1 combo is for real, IMO.
Update data from RCC PIVOT2 (bem v bem+nivo) has very little weight on P3 RCC program. P3 RCC end-point is bem+nivo v Suni/Cabo...so if nivo is much equal to TKI, adding bem to nivo may help in ORR/OS...primary end point is not out of reach. What it means for marketing is different point.
Bem is the mess, nonetheless.
I would assume so. Supplying Cem.
They are not the only one. REGN with Cemiplimab: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04046107?term=cemiplimab&draw=2&rank=9
It is NIAID study, still waiting to start. Have no idea for rationale?
MGNX: Marg OS benefit (difference) was weak, and for 3L/2L HER2-BC there is already better choices (from SGEN and Roche), so most likely not than yes to be recommended by AC.
Overall, small chance for approval, IMO.